With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression! I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week: % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.
- Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
- Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90). RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
- Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.
Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates.
Marquise Brown: I know what you are thinking, a matchup against the Steelers is not a good spot but the Steelers are bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to WRs. Brown is still boasting over 45% of the team’s air yards and over 20% of the targets and his RACR sits at a measly .44 RACR. He has the 10th best opportunity rating based off of DFSArmy projections on FD and is only $5900 and is only projecting an ownership of 10%.
Sep 27, 2020; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) scores a touchdown past New York Giants cornerback James Bradberry (24) during the third quarter of a NFL football game at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk was generating over 23% of the air yards for the team but only 13% of the targets with a .48 RACR. With Deebo Samuel being out I expect him to see over 20% of both air yards and targets this week against a Seattle defense that is worst in the league in fantasy points allowed to WRs. He would be locked and loaded in my cash LUs without much thinking about it. I am of course not a fan of his ownership but value ownership is one I am much more willing to eat.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: A 17.5 aDOT is a GPP winning type of aDOT. MVS is seeing over 30% of the Packers air yards and 16% of their targets, he got some love last week and posted a straight dud and he is in another good spot getting no love though, which makes me give him love as a play. Only boasting a .29 RACR meaning he really has nowhere to go but up this week. At only $5100 on FD and $3800 on DK, I think he offers great value.
A few of these receivers are very cheap across the industry, but sometimes it pays to play one on Draftkings or Fanduel due to pricing discrepancies. Find out more in our Clipping Coupons Series! It’s FREE!
Tyreek Hill: Playing the Jets, .44 RACR, getting over 38% of the air yards, has yet to really smash this year. If he cannot get his first 20 FD point game of the season this year, I am quitting him until that price falls, but there really isn’t a much better get right spot for him than this one.
Cooper Kupp: His aDOT this year is 6.7 which about right for him, but he normally has over a .80 RACR with those short targets, and he only has a .44 RACR. Getting over 20% of the targets and air yards he is due for a good game with that type of volume and low aDOT. Coming in at only 3.93% projected ownership that type of low ownership is a steal to me.
SPEAKING OF LOW OWNERSHIP:
Our Research Station has full ownership projections plus so much more to help you up your game. Use PROMO CODE: ‘THEORY’ FOR 20% OFF YOUR MEMBERSHIP FOR LIFE!