It’s your boy @LowOwnedWR with a would you believe it, a WR article. With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression! I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week: % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.
- Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
- Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90). RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
- Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.
Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates.
Keenan Allen: Besides DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan is the only WR on the slate getting 30% or more of both targets and air yards on the team. He has a .45 RACR and he should be around .65 or higher with how good he is by the end of the year, a matchup against a very weak Jacksonville secondary is a great spot to move those numbers up.
Tee Higgins: With AJ Green getting less and less snaps and Ross getting none, Higgins seems to be the solidified WR#2 in Cincinnati now. Even with some low usage games to start the season, he is seeing 21% of the air yards and 16% of the targets and a .45 RACR. Cleveland is not playing well at all vs WRs this year and Higgins’s price of $5700 this week makes him great value.
Calvin Ridley: Calvin Ridley is leading the league in air yards by over 100 yards (baring Thursday night stats) and is seeing 23% of the targets for the Falcons and is rocking a .52 RACR. Detroit is another team that is not playing well against WRs this year, and with Julio having a huge game last week and WRs usually not hitting ceiling games in back to back weeks, it seems like a great spot for Ridley to eat up 100 yards and 2 touchdowns.
A few of these receivers are very cheap across the industry, but sometimes it pays to play one on Draftkings or Fanduel due to pricing discrepancies. Find out more in our Clipping Coupons Series! It’s FREE!
Jerry Jeudy: I am going back to the well with this one. Broncos will be passing to stay in this game and he is seeing over 20% of the air yards and targets in this offense with only a .44 RACR. Love him as a run back in a low owned Chiefs stack.
Oct 11, 2020; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Football Team quarterback Kyle Allen (8) celebrates with wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17) after scoring a touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams in the first quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Terry McLaurin: F1 is seeing over 40% of the air yards and 27% of the targets and is drawing a matchup against the Cowboys who are giving up the most points a game since the 66′ Giants. With a RACR of .39 he is due for an amazing correction with the volume he is getting. At only 9% ownership this week, he is a great naked leverage play in GPPs and his floor makes him playable against Dallas in Cash to me.
SPEAKING OF LOW OWNERSHIP:
Our Research Station has full ownership projections plus so much more to help you up your game. Use PROMO CODE: ‘THEORY’ FOR 20% OFF YOUR MEMBERSHIP FOR LIFE!