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(FREE!) NFL Fantasy FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Advice: The Positive Regression Five Pack Week 6

With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression!  I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week:    % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.

  • Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
  • Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90).  RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
  • Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.

Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates. 

Marquise Brown: While I know he was the headliner last week and scored a touchdown, he is still underperforming with his volume. He is rocking over 45% of the teams air yards and over 25% of the targets but only has a .37 RACR. Once Baltimore puts together a solid offensive game he is going to be heavily involved and on FD he is still WAY too cheap.  

Allen Robinson: Allen Robinson has the 4th best oppurtunity rating of WRs this week based on DFSArmy projections. I do not see him being high owned with Theilen and Golladay right next to him in pricing. Robinson is basically averaging over 30% of the air yards and targets which is true WR1 usage and he only has a .51 RACR so a 10/100/2 game is coming up soon to me. I know the Panthers have an awful run defense but Nagy cannot tote that rock all game if they are losing. 

Sep 20, 2020; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) and Detroit Lions wide receiver Marvin Jones (11) celebrate a touchdown in the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Marvin Jones: An amazing matchup against one of the worst defenses in the league and his QB is chalk, yet he is only projected 3% ownership. While he is only seeing just over 15% of both targets and team air yards, he is playing over 90% of the snaps. His RACR is is just over .5 but with that type of volume he should be more efficient than that so I am expecting Marvin to get into the end zone at least once this week and tilt the Golladay players.

A few of these receivers are very cheap across the industry, but sometimes it pays to play one on Draftkings or Fanduel due to pricing discrepancies.  Find out more in our Clipping Coupons Series!  It’s FREE!

Hayden Hurst: Not too often I put a TE on here but I think Hurst is excellent this week. He sees basically 15% on the dot of both air yards and targets. His RACR is .36, for reference, Jonnu, Hockenson and Gesicki all have over a .59. Hurst is in the most offensive friendly game on the slate and after being missed open in the end zone a couple times last week, I expect Matt Ryan to find him in there against the Vikings. 

Jerry Jeudy: This is as pure of a GPP play as it gets, playing against NE with a bad QB and a bad offense is not sexy. However Jeudy is seeing over 25% of the air yards and over 20% of the targets and has an aDOT of over 12, that is WR1 volume and he is being played like he is irrelevant, if you have those type of numbers you are always relevant. With only a .45 RACR and us being over 25% into the season, I think he uses those numbers to put up a 20 point FD scoring game at least once, and with Denver probably being down in this one, he should be seeing a good amount of looks.

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