BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Fight Island 6 Location – Abu Dhabi
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card back at Fight Island. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Said Nurmagomedov $9,200 vs Mark Striegl $7,000
Said Nurmagomedov
Age: 28
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach:
Gym: Akhmat Fight Club
From: Russia
UFC Record: 2-1
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -420
Said Nurmagomedov is a flashy striker, with a strong wrestling base. Nurmagomedov has a good one-two and a quick jab. His counter left hook is nice, and he has a good rear uppercut. He throws a lot of front kicks to the legs & body. He likes to follow his one-twos with a question mark or rear leg head kick. His overhand right is very accurate. He likes to close the distance with straight punches & then land knees to the body. He will switch stances & throw front kicks with both legs. He has nice spinning kicks to the body & head. He landed a spinning heel kick which hurt his last opponent before finishing him. He will throw jump knees to the head. He is a bit plodding, but I feel he will be able to cut opponents off easier at 135. He was overextending on his punches against Scoggins & got dropped with a couple counters. He isn’t a power striker & relies more on volume and landing flashy strikes to wow the crowd & judges. He has two KO/TKO’s in his career. He has never been finished with strikes & I feel he is durable, but he was hurt a couple times in his match with Scoggins.
Said Nurmagomedov is a strong wrestler & he does a good job of using takedown attempts to setup strikes. He will shoot a single leg takedown, & if it’s defended, he will control a wrist, throw a left hook & will also throw spinning backfists. He has fast shots on both his single & double leg takedowns. His length gives him an advantage to get his hands connected & easy takedowns. He will shoot double legs, get double underhooks, push opponents to the cage and land knees to the body. On top, he has good control, but he wasn’t able to pass the guard of Justin Scoggins. He did land some nice punches & elbows to the head and some shoulder shrugs. He has great cardio & will continue to press forward and try to win the fight for the entire 15 minutes. He was a step behind all night in his UFC debut, but his constant pressure gave him the nod at the hands of the judges. In his second UFC fight he came out and dusted his opponent in round one. He faltered against Raoni Barcelos, but Barcelos is a beast and he was back packed. Nurmagomedov isn’t a huge submission threat & he only has three submissions in his career. He has never been submitted himself.
Mark Striegl
Age: 32
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach:
Gym: Syndicate MMA
From: Philippines
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: 1NC
Betting Odds: +335
Mark Striegl will be making his UFC debut with a shiny record of 18-2. His competition level has been a bit questionable, but he has beaten some decent names such as Kai Kara-France. This will be the first fight for Striegl in the United States since his UFC debut. It’s a weird time for Striegl to get signed as well. He hasn’t fought since April of 2019, and that fight ended in a no contest due to a low blow. Striegl is a grappler & combat sambo champion. Striegl won the gold medal in combat sambo at the 2019 Southeast Asian Games. However, his striking is not good. Striegl is super low volume, doesn’t have great defense, and just waits for an opportunity to shoot. He does throw some nice low kicks, and some good one-twos. He throws some nice elbows. Striegl is top heavy & muscular, but stiff as a striker. He can be countered & enters in very awkwardly at times. Striegl isn’t looking to finish opponents on the feet & has no finishes by strikes.
Mark Striegl is a beast grappler. He has excellent timing on his level changes, and good takedowns in the clinch. On top, Striegl is an aggressive passer, and a good submission artist. Striegl likes to take side control. Striegl will get the crucifix position and will look for arm locks. He also has a good scarf hold armbar. Striegl has a strong mount, and when he gets the back he is dangerous. He has good rear naked chokes. Striegl will jump on guillotines. He has fourteen submissions in eighteen wins. Striegl has been submitted twice in his career. He does put himself in guillotines. Striegl has very good submission defense overall though. In his last loss he was exhausted and eventually submitted by rear naked choke. The loss was to Reece McLaren who is a brown belt world champion. His cardio is very questionable.
Don’t let the name fool you. This Nurmagomedov is not going to look to maul his opponent, he is quite the opposite and he is the one that needs to worry about being taken down in this matchup. Said Nurmagomedov is a striker and that is where he will have a big edge in this fight. If he can keep this fight standing, he will win with a knockout or a clear decision. Striegl is not going to want to stand though and he will be looking for takedowns right out of the gate. 14 of his 18 wins are by submission and he could put Nurmagomedov in some trouble if he is successful with takedowns. You have to favor Nurmagomedov here because he has never been submitted, but I don’t know that you favor him over 80% of the time like this line indicates. Striegl is live here, I just don’t think he has the wrestling to get takedowns consistently and lock up an early submission, and this is his UFC debut so maybe the jitters will be there as well. I will side with the favorite to get his hand raised. Dog or pass though if we are betting sides on this one.
On DraftKings, Striegl is my preferred play. Nurmagomedov has a +250 ITD line which is not good as a -420 favorite. I don’t see him scoring the highest on the slate with just sig strike points. He needs knockdowns or a knockout here, so I won’t have a lot of him. He still makes my pool because he is live for that knockout, but I like a number of fighters cheaper than him more, so I will be underweight here. If Striegl wins, it will be through grappling and he could possibly get a submission. He will be the freshest in round 1 so that is going to be his best chance at the sub, as the cheapest guy on the card I need exposure to that. He should have 3-rounds to work with as well so I think he is a fine cash game punt too and I will be rooting for him to pull off the upset because I like being overweight to the winner in these curtain jerkers.
Winner – Said Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision
Maxim Grishin $9,100 vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov $7,100
Maxim Grishin
Age: 36
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Akhmat Fight Club
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -355
Maxim Grishin is returning to the octagon for the second time in his UFC career and will be looking for a different result. Grishin had a rough opening to his UFC career fighting up a weight class against a tough out in Marcin Tybura. He didn’t take much damage but was dominated & dropped a decision. Now he is moving back to down to 205 where he is riding a nine-fight unbeaten streak. Grishin isn’t super impressive to me. He has decent striking. He is more of a counter striker, but he will probe the jab & has heavy low kicks. Grishin will look for straight punch, blitz combos down the middle. He has a nice straight-right hand down the middle. Grishin will look for round kicks to the body & high kicks. Grishin likes to counter strike, keep the volume low & pot shot opponents. He does have big power & can put fighters out if he lands the right shot. He has 15 KO/TKO’s.
Maxim Grishin will mix it up & can grapple. He will use his body shots to disguise his level changes. Grishin has a good single leg takedown. He will push fighters to the cage & work from there. Grishin has good control in the clinch and likes to hit trips and throws. Grishin is heavy on top & likes to sit in half guard, land elbows, soften fighters up & eventually look for subs. He has good arm triangles. He will look to take the back & get rear naked chokes. Grishin has six submissions. Grishin struggled with his takedown defense against Jordan Johnson, but showed good get-ups, and is hard to control. Against Tybura, he was just too small and dominated in the clinch. He has been submitted three times in his career, but those were all a long time ago. Grishin is a big LHW. He will have the size, speed & cardio advantage here.
Gadzhimurad Antigulov
Age: 33
Height: 5’11
Weight: 205
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Gorets FT
From: Russia
UFC Record: 2-3
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +295
Gadzhimurad Antigulov has fallen on tough times recently. He has dropped three consecutive fights being finished in all three. Antigulov has been knocked out twice & was submitted by Paul Craig in July. At 33 years old he still has time to turn it around, but hasn’t looked good recently, and hasn’t won in over three years. Antigulov’s striking leaves a lot to be desired. He isn’t the worst athlete and does have decent footwork. He has a nasty straight-right hand. He closes the distance extremely quickly with it and it’s fast and accurate and he has put peoples’ lights out. Antigulov likes to enter range with a flurry of powerful hooks or overhands. He crashes with the punches & tries to back fighters towards the cage. Antigulov actually hits hard and has good short-range power. Antigulov at range really struggles & is super hittable. If he can’t get the finish with his wrestling, sometimes he will quit when the going gets tough. He has been finished by strikes four times. Antigulov does have four career knockout wins.
Gadzhimurad Antigulov is a submission artist & very strong wrestler. Antigulov has great timing on his single & double legs. His single leg is his best takedown. He will go to the high crotch single again and again & is very proficient with it. Antigulov is very good at controlling and mauling fighters in the clinch against the cage. He has solid dirty boxing inside. Antigulov is good at mat returning opponents when they stand up. When he gets on top, he is super aggressive. He is always hunting for the neck, whether he wraps up a guillotine or takes the back & gets the rear naked choke. He will hunt for armbars from the back mount as well. Antigulov doesn’t have a great gas tank though & relies on his wrestling too much. If fighters can stand up from under him a few times, he gets very tired. He basically quit after getting tired vs Ion Cutelaba. Antigulov is very dangerous in round one himself though, and his submission game is strong. He has 15 career submission wins. He has been submitted three times. In his last fight with Paul Craig, he hit a takedown, but got put into a triangle, showed terrible submission defense and was submitted. Antigulov is a one trick pony who needs to get fighters out of there quickly or he will gas.
Grishin is the all-around better fighter here and he will have a big size advantage along with an 8-inch reach advantage. Antigulov might be the better fighter in the first 2 minutes of the fight though because of how aggressive he is, so that is going to be the danger zone for Grishin and Antigulov could submit him or knock him out in those opening minutes. If Grishin weathers the early storm, he is going to win this fight and get a finish of his own.
This is close to an all-in fight for me. I want this fight in probably 80% or more of my lineups and Grishin is my preferred play of the two. If Antigulov wins, he breaks the slate because it will be a finish, most likely submission, in the first 2 minutes of this fight. That would score 95 or more at $7.1k. We have to have some of him if we are MMEing this week and he might be the better fighter in the first 2 minutes of the fight. If he can’t get that finish, he is going to gas out and get knocked out. That could come in the later part of round 1 for 100+ points so I like Grishin a lot here. I feel pretty confident in him winning so I am not completely against him in cash games, but that is probably too risky for my liking with his 0-point floor, so I would rather take Crute there.
Winner – Maxim Grishin via 1st round (T)KO
Jamie Mullarkey $8,300 vs Fares Ziam $7,900
Jamie Mullarkey
Age: 26
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Magnus Martial Arts Erina
From: Australia
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -145
Jamie Mullarkey is making his second start in the organization as well. He dropped a decision in a fight of the night performance against Brad Riddell. Mullarkey’s striking looks fairly technical. Mullarkey has a nice jab, and a very good one-two. He will double up on the jab. Mullarkey has a very nice left hook and a good left hook, straight-right hand. He has a nice jab, right hook. He will dig to the body with hooks. Mullarkey has nice leg kicks. He will throw a jab to the body or head kick combination. Mullarkey’s hand combinations aren’t bad when opponents allow him to go first & get his range. Mullarkey doesn’t have quick feet, and due to that fighters, who are aggressive can get inside on him rather easily. He is very hittable in close range and backs up in straight lines. He will look to counter with uppercuts as opponents enter & is willing to trade. I would say his striking looked the best it ever looked in his last match & he’s definitely improving his boxing. He definitely has pop in his punches. Mullarkey has been knocked out one time by Alexander Volkanovski. He has also lost by TKO due to shots on the mat one time. Mullarkey has 7 KO/TKO’s & finished his last three wins in that manner.
Jamie Mullarkey will look to mix it up & isn’t a bad wrestler. When fighters pressure him & start to back him up that’s when he tends to shoot. He has good double leg & body lock takedowns. He likes to shoot in, push fighters to the cage & work from there. Against the cage, he has good double legs & is relentless going for the takedown. He will get in on singles also. Mullarkey can be too aggressive going for the takedown at times & end up on his back. He can give his back when going for the single. When Mullarkey gets top position, he has good control & stays tight. He will posture from full guard & land nice elbows & hammerfists. I did see him get threatened with a deep armbar in a recent fight. He will look to move to half guard & land short elbows. He will look to trap the arm with his knee & land undefended shots. His ground & pound in half guard is probably the best aspect of his ground game. He has good control there & will go to work with big shots. Mullarkey will look to get the mount & the back but doesn’t have good control or finishing ability in those positions. When he takes dominant position, he can lose scrambles & end up on bottom. He also makes mistakes in scrambles giving up dominant positions. Off his back, he doesn’t look very proficient. In his last loss he was finished with ground & pound elbows quickly. Mullarkey does have a few submissions but is more of a ground & pound guy. Mullarkey has 4 career submissions and has never been submitted himself. Mullarkey has finished all but one of his wins & has been finished in two of his three losses. He has great cardio and is a kill or be killed fighter.
Fares Ziam
Age: 23
Height: 6’1
Weight: 155
Reach: 75”
Gym: Bulgarian Top Team
From: France
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +125
Fares Ziam has taken a year away from the sport following his UFC debut loss. Ziam was a big underdog in his fight Don Madge but looked pretty good even in a losing effort. Ziam is a talented guy & only 23 years old, so he should look improved here. Ziam has a good frame for the division. He is tall & has a long reach. Ziam is an accomplished striker, and former glory kickboxer. On the feet, Ziam throws some nice combinations. He likes to throw one-twos, or lead hook, straight-right hand combinations followed by nasty liver shots and a low kick. Ziam will come forward with a hand combination & follow high kicks as well. He’s fast, athletic & when he goes forward, he’s dangerous. Ziam can wait & be flat footed. He stands a little tall & doesn’t have the fastest footwork. He is hard to hit & dangerous to exchange with. Ziam is most dangerous with his elbows. He has five knockouts, one head kick KO & four elbow KO’s. Ziam has never been finished by strikes.
Fares Ziam was an active grappler in his fights previous to the UFC. Ziam doesn’t control distance the best in MMA fights, so he ends up in the clinch a lot. Ziam uses his length well in the clinch and has good trips. Ziam throws heat in the clinch. He has nasty knees & elbows. He will throw some distraction punches & level change into doubles. Ziam does get backed up to the fence, and in his last fight couldn’t get his back off the cage. Madge was able to hold him against the cage for the majority of the fight. On top, Ziam likes to take the back, he has good control, but doesn’t stick the rear naked choke very well. Ziam has strong takedown defense in the clinch, but not great when fighters shoot in on the legs. He isn’t the best when taken down. He will give his back to stand up and has been caught in two rear naked chokes. Ziam has four submissions himself in his career. Ziam has shown very good cardio throughout his career. Although he has a lot of early finishes, he has also shown the ability to grind.
Pre UFC, Ziam looked like the more impressive fighter with a higher ceiling. In their UFC debuts, Mullarkey was more impressive and he had a tougher matchup as well. Both guys are young and should improve every time out but Ziam is only 23-years-old and he looks like he has the talent to be special. This is a close one but give me the underdog to win this fight at range and take a decision.
I won’t end up with a lot of this fight but Ziam is my preferred play and I think Mullarkey will be the fields preferred play. If this goes to a decision (-155) then I don’t think either scores very highly and it would be Mullarkey that has a higher ceiling in a decision win. He is more likely to look for takedowns in this spot and he can get a finish, so he is a fine play, but I only had 1 of him out of my first 20 lineups. Ziam just looks like the more impressive fighter and I think he is live for a KO in this spot and he should be pretty low owned. I will look to go overweight to him, but I am also fine just fading this fight if you are making 1-5 lineups because if he doesn’t get a KO I don’t think he scores well in a win.
Winner – Fares Ziam via Unanimous Decision
Jun Yong Park $8,800 vs John Phillips $7,400
Jun Yong Park
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Korean Top Team
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -255
Jun Yong Park got his first UFC win the last time we saw him. He defeated Marc Andre-Barriault in a back & forth decision. Park has had two fun fights in the UFC & is an action fighter. Park is a slick boxer. He has good timing & fast hands. He likes to slide in & out of range while feinting and working behind the jab. He has nice one-twos & jab, right hooks or jab, overhand rights. He likes to throw a one-two to a left hook combination that’s money. Park has power in his hands & hurts opponents with punches but is more of a volume guy. He will touch opponents a lot with combinations before digging in with more powerful shots. He has nice counter hooks & uppercuts as opponents try to get inside. He is very accurate with his punches. He catches kicks & returns with punches also. He has nice kicks himself, good body & head kicks. In close range, he has nasty elbows & knees he will throw. He will use step-in knees to the head that put opponents away. Park can stand a little heavy on his lead leg & sometimes can get a little wild & just trade. He doesn’t move his head much & can be countered in the pocket. He is very good at parrying punches & staying tight inside and blocking a lot of shots with his shoulders. Anthony Hernandez had success when he walked him down, ate his counter shots & returned with power over the top. He rocked Park with some overhands & hooks. Park can strike going forwards or backwards. He has great cardio & will pick up the pace with his combinations when he sees his opponent slowing down. He has very good flurries when his opponents are against the cage & it’s where he gets most of his knockouts. Park has 4 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Jun Yong Park is not a good grappler. He is very heavy on his lead leg & likes to sit down & dig in with his punches. This makes it easy for guys to level change & take him down or clinch up with him. His takedown defense is not the best. Anthony Hernandez was able to take him down very easily with singles & doubles against the cage. Park has a decent bottom game and gets up against the cage well. He can however expose his back to stand up. Park isn’t a bad grappler offensively. He will use his punching flurries to create openings for level changes and has a solid double. Park will look for front chokes in scrambles. He will look to take the back as well. He doesn’t have the best top control, but against John Phillips it will be smart to mix it up.
John Phillips
Age: 35
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: SBG Ireland
From: Wales
UFC Record: 1-4
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +215
Unfortunately for John Phillips, he was the first victim of Khamzat Chimaev in the UFC. He landed two strikes more than either of his other two opponents, but still was dominated and submitted in the second round. Phillips has had virtually no success in the UFC with a 1-4 record in the promotion. The only win he has was a 14 second knockout win where his opponent gave him the exact fight he wanted. Phillips’ nickname tells it all. He is there to knock your head off, the white Mike Tyson. Phillips has devastating one punch knockout power & is very durable. Phillips is a solid boxer. He has a nice one-two & a powerful right hook. He will throw wild overhand right, left hook combination. He will throw hard hooks & uppercuts to close the distance. He has solid hand speed & is extremely dangerous in the pocket. Kevin Holland had him hurt multiple times but was unwilling to engage in the pocket due to Phillips’ power. Phillips throttled Jack Marshman early in round one of his last match & had Marshman on his bike the rest of the fight. He throws heavy low leg kicks. He can be out struck by fighters who can stay long. He has a great chin & is very hard to put away. He keeps heavy forward pressure, walks through shots to get in the pocket & lets his hands go. When he gets fighters backed towards the cage, he will unload with hard hook & uppercut combinations to the body & head. Phillips has 19 KO/TKO’s in 22 wins.
Phillips is not a good grappler and has very poor submission defense. He has been submitted many times. He doesn’t have good takedown defense & can be taken down fairly easily when opponents get in on his legs. His opponents can also take him down by catching his kicks. Off his back, he doesn’t have much. He seems lost & will only just try to explode to his feet while exposing his back. He was submitted very quickly by Charles Byrd in his UFC debut. He got smashed by Chimaev. He has been submitted 5 times.
Phillips is a striker only and he is going to be looking for the kill right out of the gates. If he can keep this fight standing, then maybe he gets that KO but being put on his back is his big weakness and that will be the worry here. If Park can land takedowns in this spot, then he can lock up a submission or use his wrestling to keep top control and win 3-rounds. He isn’t a great wrestler/grappler though, so I don’t see any value in this line and that is all baked into it. I doubt we see this go to the scorecards and it will probably be Park by submission or GNP, or Phillips by knockout.
This is a fight I like for GPPs. Both sides. Usually when I am writing this I have only built 1-2 lineups but this time I did build over 20 already so I had to look to see which one was my preferred play because I knew they would be close in exposure. Currently, I have more Phillips so he is the preferred play and I think if Phillips wins it will come by knockout. I think the 1st round is his best chance at the KO too so that can break the slate at $7.4k and I have to have some of him. Park is in play for a knockout, too, and he can also rack up takedowns and get a submission. So, I like him as well, but my current percentage would probably put me in line with the field or slightly under. Having Robertson priced below him made me click on her name more, but I would rather pay up to the $9k range for cash games.
Winner – Jin Yong Park via 2nd round Submission
Gillian Robertson $8,700 vs Poliana Botelho $7,500
Gillian Robertson
Age: 25
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 63”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Canada
UFC Record: 5-2
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -225
The appetite for violence of Gillian Robertson never ceases as she’s once again back in the octagon. Robertson has lived up to her nick name “the savage” as she’s been one of the most active & entertaining female fighters going. Robertson will be fighting for the eighth time in the UFC in only three years. All eight of those fights have ended inside the distance win or lose. Robertson has the most finishes in the history of the women’s flyweight division with five. She doesn’t have much striking to speak of though. She just really likes to circle, fake & feint, and try to get in on a single leg. She will throw a one-two & a jab. Her hand speed is not good & she doesn’t sit down and put power on her shots yet. She doesn’t bring her feet with her when she punches & is always off balance. She will end some combos with high kicks. Robertson is super hittable & was taken out on the feet in her last match. She got overwhelmed against the fence and couldn’t get Barber off her. Gillian has been finished twice by strikes. Gillian has just one TKO herself.
Gillian Robertson is a hyper-aggressive Jiu-Jitsu black belt. She is a specialist & always looking to time an entry & bring the fight to the mat. Robertson has two specific entries she uses most often. Robertson likes to use double legs to come up into body lock trips. She also has a nasty single leg. Robertson will also pull guard & uses x-guard to sweep very well. She is good at attacking the legs. When Robertson gets on top, she is vicious. Robertson is an excellent passer & always working to improve position. Robertson will move to half guard and dig her shoulder & head into her opponent’s chins. She keeps super heavy top pressure making opponents very uncomfortable & creates passing opportunities. Robertson also uses ground & pound to improve position as well. She will throw some ground & pound to get opponents thinking & quickly pass to a better position. Robertson has an excellent mount where she will rain down punches & elbows. She is also very good when she can take the back. Robertson is very good with control on the back and has a nasty rear naked choke. Robertson also will attack armbars from the back mount. All of Robertson’s wins in the UFC have come on the mat. She has an armbar, three rear naked chokes & a TKO with elbows from the mount. Robertson did get caught slipping one time & was armbarred late in round one of a fight with Mayra Bueno Silva. Robertson can be a little sloppy with her passes at times also and get reversed or allow opponents to stand up. Overall, she does have one of the most dangerous top games in the 125 lb division. I haven’t seen an opponent shoot a takedown on her in the UFC, but the small periods I’ve seen her on her back she looks good at sweeping and creating scrambles. Robertson will be looking for the finish from everywhere.
Poliana Botelho
Age: 31
Height: 5’8
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Nova Uniao
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 3-1
Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +185
Poliana Botelho is returning here after a long time away from the octagon. We last saw her in April of 2019, nearly a year and a half ago. Botelho is tall at 5’8 & uses a wide stance. She likes to slowly move forward, stay light on her feet, and feinting in & out. She will throw hard leg & body kicks. Her round & front kicks to the body are very powerful. She will pump her jab out there as well. She will throw a front leg, round kick to the body to a jab, right hook combination. She will throw a jab, overhand right, along with wild, looping hooks. She will close the distance with quick, straight punches. She will throw hard spinning back kicks to the body. When she backs fighters to the cage, she will throw punches in combination & body kicks to keep opponents against the cage. She has no problem brawling in the pocket & she usually has the power advantage. Her stance leaves her very open to leg kicks & takedowns. She also can get hit with clean punches in combination as she leans back. She can be low output & fighters can pressure her to the cage. Botelho also carries her power over the course of the fight, having a 3rd & 4th round KO/TKO. She has never been finished & can recover quickly. I have seen her get dropped before & come back to finish the fight herself.
Poliana Botelho isn’t an offensive grappler. She is a blue belt & not a fish out of water on the ground. I have seen her attempt double legs against the cage. I haven’t seen her work much in top position. Her stance makes it very easy for fighters to get ahold of her front leg & push her to the cage or take her down. Pearl Gonzalez was able to hold her against the cage for long periods of time in their fight but couldn’t take her down. She was more active than Gonzalez with elbows & punches to the head & body, but she was not able to get her back off the cage. Fighters are also able to take her down off timing her kicks. She was able to stand up one time against Cynthia Calvillo but was submitted later in the first round via RNC. She has been submitted one time in her career & has never gotten a sub. She has good cardio & will come forward for all three rounds. Botelho is going to want to keep this fight on the feet & strike. I think she should try to stay long & attack the body with her kicks. I think she is the faster, better striker at range & will be able to dominate the fight at distance.
This is going to be a striker vs grappler matchup. Robertson doesn’t have much to offer Botelho on the feet and if she can’t get takedowns, she might get TKO’d. Botelho’s weakness is being put on her back though and that is Robertson’s strength. Robertson will be going for takedowns early and often and if she gets them, she can finish with a submission. If she doesn’t get the submission, I think she could start to fade with the game plan she will be implementing, and I think Botelho is going to give her fits on the feet. The Robertson submission is the most likely outcome in this fight, but at these odds I would rather take Botelho to avoid it and finish her in round 2 or 3 on the feet.
This is one of 3-4 fights that we should be targeting pretty heavily. FDGTD is -195 in this one and I think the most likely outcomes would be Robertson by submission, or Botelho by TKO. If Robertson wins, I think there is a good chance it comes in round 1 and that will put her over 10x just with the bonus. If Robertson can’t get takedowns, she is in trouble and Botelho can knock her out and break the slate at $7.5k. I want to be overweight on both sides of this fight so that will probably put it in about 70% of my lineups. I wouldn’t want to touch this fight in cash games though so GPP only unless you are really confident in Robertson, then she is in play for cash.
Winner – Poliana Botelho via 1st round (T)KO
Mateusz Gamrot $8,900 vs Guram Kutateladze $7,300
Mateusz Gamrot
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Poland
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W17
Betting Odds: -310
Mateusz Gamrot’s highly anticipated UFC debut is finally upon us. Gamrot is one of the most credentialed fighters fighting outside of the UFC today. He is 17-0 & the longtime KSW champion. Gamrot is a cerebral, well-rounded fighter. On the feet, Gamrot likes to box. He will throw some decent hand combinations behind the jab. Gamrot will double and triple up on the jab. He has a nice one-two. He will throw jab, uppercut combos. Gamrot will attack the body well. Gamrot is economical with his output, but technical & accurate. Gamrot doesn’t kick a lot but does have a tricky high kick. He can fight from both stances. Gamrot doesn’t look like he has big knockout power, but his shots do seem to mark up the faces of his opponents. Defensively, Gamrot has fairly good distance control & defense on the feet, but I question it a bit. He doesn’t look like the most athletic guy, has a bit choppy footwork, and hasn’t faced many strikers.
Mateusz Gamrot is a strong grappler. Gamrot’s go to takedown is the single leg. He has good timing on it and finishes well. On top, Gamrot is a blanket. He has great control, methodical passing ability and heavy top pressure. Gamrot will stay on top, grind away and tire his opponents out. Gamrot has a sick gas tank & can go five rounds hard. He isn’t a top finisher, or super dangerous in top position. Gamrot has four career submissions. Gamrot has finished 8 of his fights and is 9-0 in decisions. I will say Guram Kutateladze is probably the best striker Gamrot has ever fought.
Guram Kutateladze
Age: 28
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: N/A
Gym: Allstar’s Training Center
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +255
Guram Kutateladze is another Georgian entering the UFC here. He is coming out of All Stars training center, a really good gym. Kutateladze has won eight fights in a row, and against decent competition. Kutateladze is a long range, fast twitch counter striker. He likes to move around, stay coiled and look for pull counters. Kutateladze will blitz in with some straights and has a really nice head kick he will use to enter range. Kutateladze has really nice pull counter straight punches. He landed a nasty hook going backwards that put Felipe Silva to sleep in his last match. He will counter with high kicks. His striking is wild though & not super refined. Kutateladze struggles with forward pressure & is a bit hittable. Kutateladze has seven career knockouts & has never been finished by strikes.
Guram Kutateladze is not the best grappler. He has gotten better with his takedown defense and is dangerous in the clinch. He has big knees, and heavy elbows. He still can be taken down, especially against the cage. If he gets taken down by Gamrot, I don’t see him getting up. Kutateladze does tend to change it up & grapple in certain fights. In this matchup, Kutateladze has to keep it on the feet, keep the range and look for the KO. Kutateladze has been submitted one time & has one submission. His cardio isn’t great, and he definitely slows down.
Gamrot is an undefeated 17-0 prospect making his UFC debut here and he looks like he belongs in the UFC. Kutateladze is also making his UFC debut and he looks like he is a dangerous striker but is most likely going to need a KO to pull off the upset. Gamrot’s grappling looks like it will be too much for Kutateladze here and he can win on the feet as well, it is just a much closer and more risky fight there.
Gamrot is my preferred play here and his grappling could put up a high score. I am not confident he looks to grapple all that much though, so I won’t be jamming him into lineups, and I do like the other fighters around him more. I was full fading Kutateladze but then I got scared of the KO and I entered an extra few lineups all including him. Just so I am not dead if he gets an early knockout at $7.3k. I do think Gamrot is the better all-around fighter though and can win this fight on the feet or the ground. Fight Goes To Decision is -185 so if you are building 1-5 LUs this week then I would probably just avoid this fight.
Winner – Mateusz Gamrot via Unanimous Decision
Thomas Almeida $8,200 vs Jonathan Martinez $8,000
Thomas Almeida
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Chute Boxe Diego Lima
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-3
Last Fought: 2 Years 8 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -135
The all action legend Thomas Almeida is finally making his return to the octagon after a super long layoff. Almeida has not fought since UFC 220 on the Stipe Miocic vs Francis Ngannou card, nearly three years ago. Almeida suffered an eye injury that had sidelined him. Almeida also was a bit chinny when he left so maybe the time off will help him. Almeida needs a win to stay on the roster as he is on a two-fight losing streak. On the feet, Almeida is super aggressive and loves being in the pocket. He likes to start on the outside and throw a lot of low kicks. Almeida’s game is to get on the inside and land big hooks. In the pocket, Almeida has excellent eyes, rolls with punches well, and counters with huge punches. Almeida has a lot of speed and can throw long, multi-punch combinations. He is very good at slipping and returning. He will attack the body well. Almeida throws some nasty elbows on the inside. Almeida throws a lot of nice step-in & flying knees as well. Due to him always being in the pocket and in exchanges he has gotten clipped and hurt. He’s been finished twice by strikes in his career & hurt in multiple fights. Most of the time Almeida is the one putting his opponents out with 17 knockouts of his own.
Thomas Almeida is a good grappler. He doesn’t use it much, but he has good control in the clinch against the cage. He will attack elbows and knees there, along with attacks off the break. Almeida is pretty hard to takedown, and when fighters do take him down, he’s hard to hold down. Almeida isn’t offensive with his BJJ game much. He has three submissions early in his career. He has never been submitted.
Jonathan Martinez
Age: 26
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-2
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +115
Jonathan Martinez is making the quick turnaround & accepting this fight on short notice here. Almeida was expected to face Alejandro Perez, but after Perez got pulled, Martinez is hopping in. Martinez is coming off a brilliant performance his last time out where he dismantled Frankie Saenz. Martinez got the third-round knockout with a flying knee and looked fantastic throughout the fight. The only negative about that fight week was he did weigh in at 140 lbs. Hopefully he can come in on point this time. Martinez is a rangy, southpaw striker with very good kicks. He is smaller for the division, but a very quick guy with good movement. He walks opponents down, feints & throws occasional kicks looking to draw out shots to counter. He has nasty low calf kicks. Martinez has a nice rear leg front kick to the body & head. He has good round kicks to the body & head also. In his last match, he landed a disgusting flying knee to the chin that shut Saenz’s lights off. Martinez has 4 KO’s with knees. He is working on his hands & improved his jab. He has a nice counter right hook. He will throw counter straights & overhand lefts. His hands looked fast vs Ewell & he was throwing nice counter combos. Martinez has very good defense & walks fighters down with a high guard. He has a strong chin & will to match. Martinez has never been finished. He is a creative striker & when he has fighters compromised, he will pour on the pressure. Martinez has 6 KO/TKO’s.
Jonathan Martinez is a pretty solid grappler. He was able to control Andre Soukhamthath in the clinch for portions of their fight. In his match with Soukhamthath, he also got a body lock & back take. He showed strong scrambling ability against Wuliji Buren after being taken down. He wasn’t able to stop the takedowns of Buren though. He was however able to hit multiple sweeps. Martinez isn’t a big ground & pound guy on top. He did open up with some big shots in the last twenty seconds of his match with Buren. The dangerous aspect of his ground game is his rear naked chokes & armbars from bottom. Martinez isn’t a huge submission threat with just two in his career. One of Martinez’s best traits is his cardio & heart. He will make fighters work & will likely be there until the final bell.
Almeida is making his return after almost 3 years and he used to be one of my favorite strikers in the UFC. His striking is legit, and it is dangerous. He did lose 3 of his last 4 fights though against top competition and he was knocked out in 2 of those 3 losses. The chin is my biggest worry with Almeida and he is a bit too hittable, but skills wise he is the much better striker and even with the possible durability issue, I think he is more likely to finish as well. Martinez should give Almeida the fight he wants here, and this should be a fun, striking battle. If Almeida’s skills have fallen off, then Martinez can win a decision here but that’s not something I would want to be guessing about so the KO is probably his best shot in this spot. The three guys who beat Almeida would also beat Martinez, so I don’t think that is a reason to pick against him.
Martinez scored 120 DK points in his last fight but that was against a 39-year-old, gassed Saenz. I am throwing that fight out and in his two wins before that he scored 71 and 76 DK points. I think that is more likely to be where he scores if a fight goes to a decision, but he is live for the KO here because Almeida is hittable and chinny. If you think he can finish then he is more in play here, but if you think he loses or wins a decision, we can get away from Martinez. He will make my player pool but probably a 5-10% type guy. Almeida is the one I am interested in here because he is more dangerous, and he strikes at a high pace. In his wins, he has scored 101, 112, 92, 106, and 90. Those scores have a good chance at putting him on the $100k lineup if he can do it again and who knows, maybe he is even better now. I like Almeida in all formats and I probably will have him in close to 40% of my lineups to be slightly overweight to the field.
Winner – Thomas Almeida via 2nd round (T)KO
James Krause $8,500 vs Claudio Silva $7,700
James Krause
Age: 34
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Glory MMA& Fitness
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 8-4
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -155
James Krause is back again on short notice which has become somewhat his calling card. He is stepping in here on a couple weeks’ notice. Nothing could top his last fight though. He stepped in on about 48 hours’ notice, up a weight class. He lost a close decision snapping his four-fight win streak. Now he will be looking to regain his momentum back at 170 lbs. James Krause is a very skilled striker. He is constantly switching stances, faking, feinting, and throws a lot of volume. Krause has an excellent jab & one-two from both stances. He has a nasty one-two, and excellent check left or right hook. He has fast hand speed for 170 especially & was landing short, stinging shots that rattled Warlley Alves in the pocket. Krause is very calm in the pocket slipping & ripping, and just has a very sharp punching ability. Krause will throw nice, long straights also, and will double up on the two if he has an opponent moving backwards. He has a very nice uppercut inside. Krause also has excellent kicking ability. I assume he will be throwing a lot of low leg kicks in this contest. He has very nice snapping front kicks to the body with both legs. He will go up to the head with the front kicks, landing an excellent one vs Alves. He will throw heavy round kicks to the body & head. He will mix in well-timed knees up the middle to the body & head. Krause’s striking looked amazing in his last match & if he can replicate that performance he will be tough to beat. Krause can be hittable at times. Against Alex White, he took some big shots over the top. He has always shown a strong chin & ability to take a shot. He has been finished by strikes just twice & the one vs Bobby Green is very controversial. Krause has power with 7 KO/TKO’s.
James Krause is a strong grappler, and submission artist. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu with some decent wrestling. In this matchup, he is going to want to use his wrestling in reverse to keep it standing. He is likely going to have a big advantage in the standup. Krause does look to back opponents up with his striking & then duck under for double legs. He shows good timing on doubles & body locks and gets pretty easy takedowns. In top position, Krause has good control, ground & pound, and is aggressive looking for the neck. He will wrap up guillotines & likes to get rear naked chokes. Krause will use the guillotine to counter takedown attempts as well. Krause’s takedown defense isn’t the greatest. I think his footwork, and ability to work off both stances does make it hard to get inside, but he can give up takedowns. He is active off his back with triangles, but that’s where he doesn’t want to be with Claudio. If he keeps it standing he should win this fight all day. Krause has good cardio, and good submission defense. He has been submitted just twice in his career. Krause has 14 submissions himself.
Claudio Silva
Age: 38
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: London Shootfighters
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-0
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W14
Betting Odds: +135
Claudio Silva is still undefeated in the UFC, but somewhat of a forgotten man in the division. He has been in the company for six years & only has fought five times. Silva is once again coming off a layoff of over a year. At 38 years old Silva is getting up there in age, but no one has been able to knock him off yet. Silva isn’t much of a striker & really only a specialist. He is a southpaw. He will throw one-twos and round kicks to the body. He likes to throw a jab or one-two body kick. He actually has a pretty accurate straight-left hand. He does a good job of feinting a level change and throwing the straight-left hand. He will throw a long right hook, straight-left hand. He will close the distance with wide, looping hooks right into takedown attempts. He is a bit slow & a plodder and definitely gasses out when he can’t get takedowns. He is very tough & very opportunistic. He does a great job of weathering a storm, finding his takedown and getting the finish or the round. I do think he actually has solid pop in his shots & earned Leon Edwards’ respect on the feet. He is not looking to knock his opponent out though, and only has two career TKO’s. He has won 13 consecutive fights, and his only loss is via disqualification.
Claudio Silva is a great grappler. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Silva does a good job of getting inside with his strikes to get the fight to the ground. He will get in on double legs. He has a good single leg & has great grip strength when he gets ahold of the leg. He will get in on a double leg, come up into a body lock & will chain takedowns together against the fence. He will pull guard if he feels he can’t finish the takedown. He is very heavy on top & has old school Jiu-Jitsu. He has great guard passing & will methodically move to dominant position. In half guard, he will look for arm triangles & land short punches and elbows. He has a quick mount take & has good ground & pound on top. He will force opponents to give up the back where he has great control and will flatten opponents out and try to lock in rear naked chokes. In his last fight, Danny Roberts was able to reverse position & landed some big ground & pound on Silva. Silva showed a ton of toughness & heart getting an armbar late in the fight. He has 8 career submissions, and has never been finished.
Krause is stepping in on short notice to take this fight. This is a close one, but Krause is going to be the pick because of his striking. Both fighters are great grapplers but the edge on the ground goes to Silva and he is live in this spot because of it. However, Krause hasn’t been submitted in over a decade and I don’t know that Silva can wrestle well enough to just win rounds against Krause with his grappling. Krause should be able to pick him apart while the fight is on the feet though and he is a good enough grappler to survive if he is taken down.
I won’t have a lot of this fight, but Silva is my preferred play. He is an underdog with submission potential, and he should be looking to grapple early and often. He can rack up takedowns and get a sub, so we can’t fade him if MMEing and he is in play in cash games as well. Krause can score well if he gets the win, but he will need to be able to keep this fight standing and rack up sig strikes or get a KO. I don’t see him scoring much on the ground here and at $8.5k I would rather pay for a higher ceiling. He will still make my lineups but probably a 10% type guy where I am ok going overweight on Silva.
Winner – James Krause via Unanimous Decision
Jimmy Crute $9,000 vs Modestas Bukauskas $7,200
Jimmy Crute
Age: 24
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Greco & Stewies house
From: Australia
UFC Record: 3-1
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -340
Jimmy Crute will be looking to start another win streak. He bounced back from his first career loss with a dominant submission win. Crute is 24 & 3-1 overall in the UFC. Crute is aggressive & athletic with strong grappling skills. He is pretty light on his feet & is pretty quick for someone his size. He will throw jab, straight-right hands, and has a good overhand right. He will throw an overhand right, left hook combination. He earned a finish on the DWCS with a straight-right, left hook combination. He will slip the jab & throw overhand lefts. He has decent head kicks, and solid body kicks that he throws heavy. He still is green on the feet in my opinion. He uses some big movements to close distance at times without setting them up. He is hittable, and he needs to be extremely careful against good counter strikers. Crute is a big, powerful guy, and he isn’t a huge knockout threat on the feet. He has three TKO’s, two being on the ground from mount.
Jimmy Crute is a very strong wrestler with a good double leg. He has quick passes and does a great job of getting to side control and then full mount. He gets very high in the mount and will land heavy ground & pound punches and elbows. He does a great job of staying heavy in mount, and not letting fighters explode up. He can get too high on the mount and rolled at times, but he will attack with leg locks, and does a good job of winning scrambles and ending up back on top. He was able to mat return his last opponent multiple times, tire him out & then submit him. He has nice arm triangles from top position and was attacking with nice kimuras against Paul Craig. He has good takedown defense, a good sprawl & will circle to the back. He was taken down a few times against Craig with double legs, but he showed good defense on the mat and good sweeps. Craig did have a couple minutes of top control in round 2. In his match with Misha, he made a lot of amateur mistakes on the mat. He got too excited gave up position & was submitted by being sloppy. That was the only time he has been submitted in his career.
Modestas Bukauskas
Age: 26
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 78”
Gym: Gintas Combat
From: Lithuania
UFC Record: 1-0
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: +280
Modestas Bukauskas was successful in his UFC debut defeating Andreas Michailidis via finish. It was a little bit weird & controversial finish, but he got the win nonetheless. Bukauskas has won seven fights in a row. Bukauskas is a striker & most confident when he can keep it on the feet. He has a wide stance & tries to fight long. He uses a lot of lateral movement, jabs and left hooks. He has a nice straight-right hand & overhand right. Bukauskas likes to land one-twos, jab, overhand rights, and pot shot fighters. He will throw some liver kicks and round kicks to the head. He has a really nasty spinning back kick to the body. Bukauskas just isn’t the most athletic or fast guy. He holds his hands down, and his style is reliant on in & out movement and being quick. At the higher levels, I just don’t think he will be successful. Bukauskas will throw naked kicks & float his chin. He is there to be countered after he throws punches, and he leaves his lead leg out there to get chewed up. Bukauskas does hit pretty hard & has eight KO’s in 10 wins. I wouldn’t say he has crazy power or anything though. Bukauskas has been KO’d one time.
Modestas Bukauskas is not a grappler. He really struggles with that facet of his game and has putrid takedown defense. Bukauskas can be flat footed & throws naked kicks, which lead to him getting taken down a lot. Fighters can get in on his hips very easily & take him down. He doesn’t have good takedown defense against the cage or in the clinch. In his last two matches, he did land some hard elbows to the side of the head when his opponent went for the takedown & got the finish. Crute has to have that in mind. Off his back, he doesn’t offer much. He will just look to keep fighters in his guard, maybe throw some elbows and look for a ref stand up. Bukauskas doesn’t have very good get-ups, and against higher level ground fighters he will be in trouble. Bukauskas hardly ever wrestles or looks to get in top position. If he drops opponents, he will finish with ground & pound. He has been submitted one time. He has two rear naked choke victories over low level opposition. Bukauskas does have very good cardio. Even after getting dominated for multiple rounds, he is still fresh enough to get late finishes.
Crute is a young, top prospect in the UFC and he is only 24 years old with 4 UFC fights against decent competition under his belt. His striking still needs some work but he already looks like one of the top wrestlers/grapplers in the division after seeing him dominate his last fight. Bukauskas is probably in trouble here if Crute wants to implement that same game plan of dominating on the ground, but he can keep this close on the feet. If I knew this would be a striking battle, then it is an easy dog or pass fight at the current line. Crute is the pick though because he should look for takedowns, and if he gets them, he probably gets the submission or a decision win.
Before the Gane fight was scratched, I didn’t have much of this fight at all. I had zero Bukauskas and I would have been under-weight to Crute. Now, I am overweight to Crute and Bukauskas might even make the player pool. Crute is the preferred play though and a fade on Bukauskas is ok with me if you are making 20 or less lineups. Crute has a -170 ITD line though so maybe the Gane scratch will save me here and if Crute looks to wrestle like he did in his last fight he has one of the highest ceilings on the card. I do think he is playable in all formats but now he will also be chalk because everyone else will move their Gane exposure to him or Grishin for the most part.
Winner – Jimmy Crute via 2nd round Submission
Jessica Andrade $8,400 vs Katlyn Chookagian $7,800
Jessica Andrade
Age: 29
Height: 5’1
Weight: 125
Reach: 62”
Gym: Paraná Vale Tudo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 11-6
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -150
Jessica Andrade is making the move up to 125 lbs, and not getting an easy touch. She will be taking on former title challenger & number 1 contender Katlyn Chookagian. Andrade needs a win here as she’s coming off back to back losses. Andrade is a powerhouse, terminator type fighter. She keeps extreme pressure on opponents and is constantly walking them down. She will attack the body & head with ripping hooks & overhands. She will throw a left hook to the body to left hook to the head combination. When she backs opponents up towards the cage, she has the cardio to unload with long combinations & try to overwhelm and take opponents out. She landed a nasty right hook that knocked her opponent out cold in her fight with Kowalkiewicz. She will occasionally throw leg kicks, but she is almost exclusively a boxer. She has a great chin and will continue to march forward even after being hit. She did a better job her last fight of using feints and head movement to get inside. It was a great, razor thin fight with Rose. She tends to only come in on straight lines & when she fought Rose & Joanna she was throwing at air a lot. She can be countered with straight punches & kicks and doesn’t really care about defense. She has been dropped a couple times in fights, but largely has been able to eat shots no problem. She was hurt in the clinch and finished off brutally by Weili Zhang. Andrade has 7 KO/TKO’s & has been finished by strikes three times.
Andrade is an excellent wrestler. She is a tank and will manhandle opponents. When she gets in the clinch, she can elevate opponents & get big slams or get big trip takedowns. She had one of the best slam takedowns in UFC history in her last fight with Namajunas. She took Gadelha on some rides with huge slam takedowns. She doesn’t shoot takedown shots much, but when she gets in the clinch, fighters are getting taken down. When she gets in top position, she has heavy, thudding ground & pound and has finished a couple fights with it. She will try to move to dominant positions & finish the fight. She has 7 career submissions. She will jump on guillotines & she has decent submissions. She has been submitted a couple times herself, but at 135 lbs. She has been submitted twice. Andrade has phenomenal cardio & needs it here.
Katlyn Chookagian
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 125
Reach: 66”
Gym: Renzo Gracie Academy
From: New York
UFC Record: 7-3
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +130
Katlyn Chookagian is getting a big opportunity to welcome a former UFC champion to her weight class. She is coming off a nice win over Antonina Shevchenko and gunning for another title shot. Chookagian is a good striker with a point fighting style. She has a nice jab, and she will double and triple up on it. She will follow the jab up with a straight-right hand, leg kick combination, and has very fluid kicks with her lead leg. She has nice a nice front kick, and sidekick to the body along with a fast, high kick. She will throw question mark kicks and hook kicks as well with her lead leg. She has good overhand lefts and rights in close range and will sit down and throw with power. She has a nice left hook, straight-right hand to the body. She will throw hooks to the body also and has nice rear uppercuts. She is good at catching kicks, and returning with shots, and she is good defensively. She has good footwork and lateral movement and keeps a high volume of shots out there. Her left knee and high kick are her most dangerous attacks, she dropped Liz Carmouche with a head kick. In this fight she is going to have the faster feet & an opponent who doesn’t have great head movement. If she can find her range early, it could be a hard night for Andrade in terms of getting past the reach of Chookagian. She has two knockouts in her career, and never been finished.
Chookagian is a Renzo Gracie brown belt, and well versed on the mat. She has good duck unders for double legs and is strong in the clinch with knees. She is good at landing hard knees to the body and disengaging when fighters try to clinch with her, and she has good takedown defense. In her last fight she finally showed off some wrestling and top game and battered Shevchenko. When she does get taken down, she will attack with triangles and armbars and has a decent get-up game. She does have two submissions in her career with one being an armbar.
Chookagian is coming off the best performance of her career and Andrade is coming off back to back losses. If this fight was matched up before those three fights, Andrade would probably be -400 in this spot. Chookagian can’t dominate the wrestling/grappling in this fight like she did her last, and she is more likely to be the one spending time on her back in this matchup. Chookagian is going to need to get back to her point fighting style here and try to win this fight at range, but Andrade isn’t the type of fighter to just hang out on the outside and let that happen. Andrade is going to be the bully in this fight and if she makes it more of a dirty fight and gets on the inside, she should win this fight.
This is Andrade or pass for me on DraftKings. Chookagian has never been a high scorer on DK and I don’t see it happening here unless she can pull off an armbar from guard or something. Andrade is the one with a path to a high score because she should be looking to get this fight on the inside and she throws combos when she does. I also think she should be looking for takedowns to win 2 rounds more clearly and if she does that it will help with the scoring as well. I do think she will be popular though and seeing her lose or not even 10x in a win won’t shock me here, so she isn’t a must play at all. I do like her in all formats and I am more likely to go overweight on her than underweight in GPPs. I would need over 50 lineups to even consider Chookagian though.
Winner – Jessica Andrade via Unanimous Decision
Chan Sung Jung $8,600 vs Brian Ortega $7,800
Chan Sung Jung
Age: 33
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Fight Ready MMA
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 6-2
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -185
The grudge match is finally upon us. This fight has been brewing for a long time & it’s finally here. Korean Zombie is never in a boring fight, and I don’t expect that to change here. The all action legend has looked great in his last two fights knocking Renato Moicano & Frankie Edgar in the first-round. Korean Zombie has a nasty jab and throws it very stiff. Zombie likes to throw wide hooks to close the close the distance and get in a brawl where he is very dangerous. He likes to counter with straight punches, and he will throw the one-two when fighters close the distance on him. He has nasty uppercuts, and he will throw 4-5 in a row in close range when he sees the opening. He has a strong left hook and it’s one his more powerful punches. When he stalks opponents to the cage, he likes to throw flying knees and then he unloads with punching combinations to the body and head. He has amazing cardio, and the Zombie loves to slip & return with shots. He slipped the jab of Moicano and came back with a ruthless overhand right, left hook combination that floored him. He landed a really nice short left hook that rocked Edgar, and several other well-timed counters before finishing him with ground & pound. Korean Zombie isn’t much of a kicker, but he has shown really nice, fast leg & body kicks in the past. In this fight, he should try to bring back that low kick, and throw it early and often on Ortega. He has to set it up, but we have seen Ortega ate up with low kicks in the past. Zombie is extremely dangerous in the first round. Four of his six UFC wins are via first round knockout including his last three in a row. Zombie does not get tired and loves to throw down in the pocket, so opponents have to trade with him to back him off. His defense is very bad, and he just really disregards it. He holds his hands low and doesn’t really feint much while throwing dangerous strikes that are easy to counter. He needs to be careful not to get caught with a kick in this fight and get hurt or knocked out. He has been finished twice besides his injury vs Aldo, and it was a knockout by a head kick and a crazy up elbow by Rodriguez with only 1 second to go in the fight. He has 6 KO/TKO’s, and he is very dangerous especially in a 5-round fight.
He is a great grappler with a great body lock in the clinch. He also has nice trips in the clinch as well. He is also very good at catching kicks and taking fighters down off them. He needs to keep this fight standing though, and not bring it to Ortega’s world. On top, Zombie has nasty ground & pound elbows. He does a great job of getting posture and raining down blows. His Jiu-Jitsu is incredible, and he is able to transition on top very smoothly while looking for submissions. He has a nasty darce choke that he caught Poirier with in their fight. He has gotten a twister as well in the UFC. He is very good off his back and extremely active with triangles and armbars. His takedown defense is awesome, he has a great sprawl and he will circle to the back and try to get to the back. He has 8 submission victories himself and has never been submitted.
Brian Ortega
Age: 29
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 69”
Gym: Black House MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 6-1-1
Last Fought: 1 Year 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +160
Brian Ortega is making his highly anticipated return to the octagon. It has been nearly two years since his failed title bid against Max Holloway. It seems that his team is keen on this matchup with Korean Zombie as they have tried to set it up many times. Rener Gracie did used to train Zombie, so maybe he knows something we don’t. Unfortunately for Rener, he cannot be in the corner due to Covid. Nonetheless, this will be the first time Ortega is entering a fight off a loss but can get right back in the mix with a victory. Ortega is a mauler. He wants to get on the inside, stay in the pocket and bang. Ortega has a stiff jab, and everything he throws is heavy. Ortega is good at hand fighting on the inside and then coming over the top with jabs, straights and overhands. He likes the overhand right and left hook mainly on the feet. He is good at digging to the body with the hooks and then coming back up to the head. Ortega doesn’t have great kicks, but he will throw weird, powerful kicks that opponents have to respect. He will throw some dangerous elbows and knees on the inside. His uppercut on Edgar is legendary. His chin size, cardio and stalking pressure breaks fighters and forces them into mistakes. Ortega’s toughness only takes him so far. Hopefully he worked on his defense because the Holloway fight was hard to watch. Ortega has a legendary chin though & even in that fight was still standing after all those strikes. Ortega has three knockouts in his career.
Brian Ortega is an elite Gracie black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has shown his slickness time & time again and is known as one of the best submission artists in the UFC. Ortega has gotten better at using his strikes to create trip opportunities. He will push fighters to the fence and then hit double legs. Ortega has a decent single to back take as well. Ortega will jump on the neck or back from standing and hit some awesome chokes. He has some nasty front chokes. He is great at chaining submissions together until he catches his opponent. Ortega will not even defend takedowns and doesn’t mind being on his back. His guard is amazing. He has an incredible triangle and armbar. He will throw some nasty slicing elbows. Ortega is just one of those guys that’s always dangerous. He has a warrior’s heart and doesn’t slow down. He has seven career submissions.
Chan Sung Jung, AKA The Korean Zombie, is never in a boring fight and Ortega is making his return after his first loss with the title shot almost two years ago. Both fighters are great grapplers, but Ortega looks like one of the most dangerous submission artists in the UFC. The Korean Zombie is a great grappler as well, but his big edge in this fight is going to be the striking. Ortega can hang with him volume wise, but TKZ is the much better overall striker and much more dangerous as well. This feels like a submission or bust fight for Ortega and Zombie has never been submitted before, so I have to lean with the favorite to get his hand raised in this one by TKO or a clear decision.
This is going to be an all-in fight for me because of the 5-rounds and because I am not making 150 lineups. With 50 or less lineups I am going to have this fight in every lineup I build. After 50, I think we can get away from it in a small percentage of lineups, but we would need this to be a slower paced fight and drag into the later rounds. I don’t see that being the case. I think this will be a fun fight and we have a -260 FDGTD line. This looks like Zombie by TKO or Ortega by sub, and both guys average over 4 sig strikes lander per minute so they will be racking up points on top of the possible finish.
Winner – Chan Sung Jung via 3rd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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