BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 254 Location – Abu Dhabi
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card back at Fight Island. This one is an early start so get your lineups in before Saturday. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $20 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Joel Alvarez $9,000 vs Alexander Yakovlev $7,200
Joel Alvarez
Age: 27
Height: 6’3
Weight: 155
Reach: 77”
Gym: Centro Deportivo Tibet
From: Spain
UFC Record: 2-1
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -160
Joel Alvarez will be looking to make it three wins in a row inside the UFC’s octagon. He has bounced back from his debut loss with back to back victories, both first round finishes. Alvarez picked up a win over Joe Duffy his last match who is a popular name and veteran but a washed-up fighter. This time he will be taking on another veteran in Alexander Yakovlev. Alvarez is improving on the feet. He has a long frame & uses it by throwing a lot of kicks. Alvarez throws heavy low calf kicks. He likes to blitz forward with a one-two & end with a low kick. He will blitz in with one-twos to knees to the body. Alvarez throws a lot of front kicks to the body & head also. He likes to try to counter with his left hook or right straight. Alvarez is aggressive & throws a decent amount of volume. He does stand tall though and is susceptible to low kicks himself. Damir Ismagulov laid out the blue print to best him. Alvarez is pretty slow, and if fighters throw a lot of feints, and pot shot him as he tries to come in, it’s hard for him to get off. Alvarez won’t switch up & go to the wrestling either, so if Yakovlev is able to keep the distance and be technical he will win. Alvarez isn’t a big power striker. He has two career TKO’s. He does have a chin & good durability. He has been finished just one time in his career from a spinning heel kick to the head.
Joel Alvarez’s weapon of choice in MMA has been his Jiu-Jitsu. Alvarez has finished 88% of his wins via submission including ten in the first round. Alvarez isn’t a wrestler though. He will rarely ever engage in the grappling first. Alvarez likes to walk fighters down & use his striking & forward pressure to make them shoot. He will look to catch guillotines as fighters shoot in on him. Off his back, he is super active with submissions & sweeps. He has a lot of guillotine and triangle choke victories. He got yet another first round guillotine win over Joe Duffy. Alvarez has fifteen career submissions. Danillo Belluardo was able to take down Alvarez in round one, stay heavy in half guard and won the round. He landed some pretty nice elbows as well. Alvarez’s style of getting submissions off his back does not lend itself to winning decisions and he is 0-1 in his career in decisions. He has only seen the third round twice in his career, but his cardio seems solid.
Alexander Yakovlev
Age: 36
Height: 6’3
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: K-Dojo Warrior Tribe
From: Russia
UFC Record:
Last Fought:
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +140
Alexander Yakovlev is fighting for the first time in nearly a year. The last time we saw Yakovlev he was dropping a decision to Roosevelt Roberts. Yakovlev is 1-1 since returning from his three-year layoff. He has a finish win over Alex Da Silva in his other fight. Yakovlev is definitely the veteran here, with a massive experience advantage. Yakovlev has fought guys like Kamaru Usman and holds wins over fighters like Paul Daley. Even Alex Da Silva has proven to be a solid fighter. As a striker, I’m not really impressed with Yakovlev. He is almost always on the back foot skirting the cage. Yakovlev is a technical striker. He likes to use his range & land jabs & straight punches. He will throw a nice one-two and jab, left hook. He has a nice straight-left hand & uses it to maintain distance. He will follow the straight-left with a right uppercut or right hook. He has nice inside leg, body & head kicks. He uses a lot of movement & won’t brawl or exchange much. He can allow opponents to control the center & lose in the eyes of the judges by constantly getting backed up. He does tend to sometimes extend his arms to defend punches, or circle away with his hands low. This does leave him susceptible to possibly being hit. He also can stand heavy on his lead leg when he sits down on punches. He has 9 KO/TKO’s & has been finished by strikes just once and has a solid chin.
Alexander Yakovlev is a good submission grappler. He is solid in the clinch with knees, and control. He has very nice timing on single & double legs. He is good at elevating opponents & moving directly into side control. He will catch kicks & take opponents down off them. He has a strong mount take & will chase the back mount. He doesn’t have the greatest top control & fighters have been able to scramble back to their feet when he takes them down. He can be taken down himself, but he is decent off his back. Against the cage, Yakovlev has much better takedown defense than in space. He will stuff the head, sprawl heavy & look for front chokes. He had a scramble fest fight with his last opponent Alex Da Silva. Yakovlev was controlled against the fence & taken down, but showed good ability to get-up from bottom, and ultimately got a guillotine finish. He was able to survive 3 rounds with Demian Maia & even took Maia down. Yakovlev has 8 career submissions & been submitted 4 times. All four of his submission losses have been via arm locks. Yakovlev has solid cardio & the style to win decisions. Yakovlev has only been submitted one time since 2009. He has been able to go the distance with fighters such as Maia & Usman.
Yakovlev should have the wrestling advantage here and he is going to need it to pull off the upset. He can keep top control long enough to win rounds, but Alvarez looks to be the more dangerous grappler so it’s hard to see Yakovlev getting a submission himself. Yakovlev might have more KO power as well, but Alvarez looks like the better striker who would throw more volume. Alvarez is going to be my pick in this one and I see him locking up a guillotine on one of Yakovlev’s takedown attempts.
We are getting some value in Yakovlev at $7.2k as a +140 underdog. He was closer to +200 when salaries came out, so I like him in all formats as a value play. I just don’t know if that makes him popular and if it does at all, then I don’t like him anymore. He is my preferred cash game play of the two, but I would rather take Alvarez in GPPs and I think he is more likely to get a finish on the feet or the mat. Plus, the value on Yakovlev could make him overlooked here. I love targeting the curtain jerkers so I need exposure to both sides, but if I am focusing on SE or 3 Entry Max contests then I would probably fade both sides.
Winner – Joel Alvarez via 2nd round Submission
Miranda Maverick $9,300 vs Liana Jojua $6,900
Miranda Maverick
Age: 23
Height: 5’3
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Springfield Fight Club
From: Virginia
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -440
Miranda Maverick is set to make her long awaited debut. She is only 23 years old, but already one of the biggest prospects in female MMA. She is 7-2 coming off a dominant victory over UFC veteran Pearl Gonzalez. Maverick’s last three wins have all come against UFC veterans. Maverick is improving rapidly. She is a southpaw, athletic & has fairly good movement. She is light on her feet and good in & out. She has a wide stance and likes to throw a lot of kicks from the outside. She has decent low kicks. Maverick has solid round & front kicks to the body. She does throw some wild high kicks though. Maverick will sometimes throw naked kicks & leave herself exposed to being countered. Bennett does have a counter left hook. She will throw some straight punches & pull counters. Maverick’s striking is a means to an end though, which is get the fight to the mat. She has zero KO/TKO’s in her career.
Miranda Maverick is a strong grappler and getting on top & getting the submission is the main objective for her. Maverick is solid in Jiu-Jitsu & a former wrestler. She is a farm girl & very strong & muscular. Maverick likes to use the single leg most often. She does a good job of getting in on the single, and then securing her opponents other leg. She had some great timing on her double legs against Pearl Gonzalez. She has solid takedowns against the cage also. Maverick on top is very heavy. She is an excellent passer and throws heavy ground & pound. Maverick loves to take the back & has a great squeeze. She will get the arm under the neck or on the chin & squeeze the life out of people. Maverick is susceptible to being taken down or controlled against the cage. In her fights with Deanna Bennett, she was controlled in the clinch & taken down multiple times. Bennett was able to ride her out, dominate position and win a decision. In their rematch the fight looked similar through two rounds, but Maverick dug deep in the third & choked out Bennett. Maverick is active off her back. She has an attacking guard and will create scrambles to get back to her feet. Maverick was impressive against Gonzalez. Gonzalez who’s a dangerous bottom player got not only shut down, but largely dominated. Maverick got to dominant positions, landed big ground & pound and mauled Gonzalez. Maverick is tenacious, has great cardio & is just a pure grinder. She has fantastic cardio & is super hungry. Maverick has six submission wins. Maverick is inexperienced and has just one fight out of Kansas & none on the west coast. This is a solid matchup to ease her into the UFC.
Liana Jojua
Age: 25
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 62”
Gym: Akhmat Fight Team
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +350
Liana Jojua got her first UFC win her last fight via her signature armbar. Jojua is another one of these Georgian fighters that seem to be taking the UFC by storm. Jojua is a finisher having finished seven of her eight wins. Jojua as a striker is not very good. This will also be the first time she will fight a southpaw. Jojua will throw some nice one-twos. She throws a straight-right to the body to a left hook to the head. Her overhand right isn’t bad. She doesn’t throw many kicks or much of anything besides that. She does keep heavy pressure on opponents & keeps them on the back foot. She has pretty good composure & looks durable. She is very stiff though & hittable. She doesn’t move her head & is there to be hit. She was TKO’d on the ground for the first time in her career in her last fight. Her stand up isn’t very dangerous & she just has one career TKO.
Jojua’s grappling is average. She was dominated in the clinch in her last loss. Sarah Moras was able to get her to the cage, control her & land nice knees. Jojua did defend the takedowns well and got a couple takedowns of her own. She will use her punches to get in & duck under for double legs. She will get some clinch takedowns as well. She has no problem pulling guard. She is a leg lock girl & always hunting for the legs & 50-50 position. She will finish them but is more adept at using them to sweep. She has nice armbars off her back as well. She caught yet another one in her last match. Jojua shot a very sloppy takedown in her last fight, gave her back & ultimately was pounded out from side control. In top position, she has shown good ground & pound. She will go to side control & throw down heavy hammerfists. She is a finisher on the mat with 6 submissions. She has been submitted one time herself.
Maverick is a decent prospect, and she should win this fight. All Jojua is really going to have to offer here is the armbar and her last opponent did give it to her. I think Maverick is the better wrestler/grappler here though so I think she should win most grappling exchanges and she should win in the striking as well.
This fight is mostly going to be a fade for me. If this is a grappling heavy fight, then I will probably regret that. Both sides are in play because of the grappling and both are grapplers. I just think Maverick should look to strike and avoid the one danger from Jojua, so I could see her scoring low in a win. Both sides will make 0-2 of my 20 lineups here but I wouldn’t talk you off either.
Winner – Miranda Maverick via Unanimous Decision
Da-Un Jung $9,400 vs Sam Alvey $6,800
Da Un Jung
Age: 26
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 78.5”
Gym: Korean Top Team
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 2-0
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: -345
Da Un Jung enters his third UFC fight the favorite, after winning as an underdog in his first two appearances. Jung is young at 26 years old, clearly improving and 8-0 as a LHW. He is coming off a nasty first round knockout of Mike Rodriguez in December. This will be his first fight of 2020. Jung is a counter striker. He likes to come forward, fake, feint, and work behind the jab. He will probe with the jab and wait for counter opportunities. He has a nice counter lead hook. He will look for that hook as he goes backwards. Jung’s straight-right hand is clean & powerful. Jung keeps the volume high when he finds his range. He will pepper opponents with jabs, straights, short hooks and uppercuts. Jung does leave his lead hand low, and that can get him caught at times. Jung showed good composure, but he ate a lot of shots against Khadis Ibragimov. If he eats shots against Sam Alvey, he probably will end up out cold. Jung is heavy on his lead leg, and a bit susceptible to lead hooks. In his last fight he looked really good though. He was switching stances constantly, moving a lot more and looked more fluid. He landed a nasty straight-right hand down the pipe that knocked Rodriguez out cold. He showed that you have to pressure Jung and can’t let him go forward. Now with nearly a year away from the octagon again he probably will look even more improved. Jung has ten career knockouts, including seven in a row.
Da Un Jung isn’t an offensive grappler. He isn’t an active seeker of the takedown, but I have seen him get double legs against the cage. In the clinch, Jung will throw some big knees. Jung’s takedown defense looks a bit questionable, but he has strong get-ups. He will sprawl well on double legs. When he does get taken down, he is good at scrambling right back to his feet. He will hit switches & is good at reversing the takedowns & taking top position himself. On top, he is strong. He has good top control & has good passing ability. He will get the crucifix position & rain down elbows. He finished a recent opponent in that position. In his match with Ibragimov, Jung finished a very tired Ibragimov with a standing guillotine. He isn’t a big submission threat though, with just two in his career. Jung was submitted one time in his 3rd pro fight.
Sam Alvey
Age: 34
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Team Quest
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record:
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L4
Betting Odds: +285
Sam Alvey will be making his second appearance in the Covid era. The veteran has fallen on hard times having dropped four fights in a row. His last match was a close, split decision with a top fifteen opponent, so he is still being competitive. He will need to turn back the clock here if he wants to defeat Jung. The thing is Alvey isn’t even that old at 34, but he has almost fought fifty times. Alvey fights similarly in almost every fight. He likes to play the counter game and look for a one punch knockout. Alvey is a southpaw and has power in both hands. His two major weapons are his right hook & left hand. Alvey has added a couple things to his arsenal recently such as a low kick. He has also been trying to use his jab a bit more. Alvey just doesn’t throw much volume and allows his opponents to lead the dance. Alvey will go backwards the entire fight if his opponent pressures him. Alvey likes to try to use flurries late in rounds to steal rounds. When he hurts opponents, he swarms and throws the kitchen sink. Alvey has always been very durable. He eats shots to give shots and is dangerous in exchanges. Recently he has been getting hurt more but has had some early stoppages go against him. Overall, Alvey has 19 knockout wins, and has been knocked out just three times. He has been finished by strikes in two of his last three fights.
Sam Alvey is a very good defensive grappler. He has strong takedown defense and good get-ups if he is taken down. Alvey uses the cage very well to get back to his feet. He will attack with front chokes to defend takedown attempts. If he does get taken down, he is pretty good at working back up. In his last match, he got his back taken by a black belt, but was able to turn in and control Abreu in his guard for a minute or so. Alvey doesn’t go for takedowns himself very often. In 18 UFC fights Alvey has one takedown. Alvey isn’t very dangerous with submissions with only three in his career and has been submitted just one time himself. Alvey has okay cardio, but he doesn’t throw enough volume to even warrant him getting tired. Alvey has to show more aggressiveness here. He can’t allow himself to get walked down and pushed towards the cage. His job is likely on the line, and he needs to fight like it.
Jung is the younger fighter, and he is 2-0 in the UFC with both being finishes. Alvey has lost his last 4 fights and is fighting for his job here. This betting line looks a bit too wide for me and it is probably because of those reasons I just mentioned. Jung looks like he has power but Alvey is hard to put away and he has power himself. Either guy could land the big KO shot and this will probably be a striking fight. I am going to side with Jung because I think he will be the one throwing more volume, but this is a dog or pass fight on the betting line and I am tempted at taking the shot on Alvey if he hits +300.
I am actually going to say my preferred play in this fight is Alvey, but just because I will be higher on him compared to the field. I still probably end up with more Jung, but I don’t know that I will be overweight to the field and I am ok going underweight to him. He is live for the 1st round KO and he has a ITD line of -105. I can’t fade Jung with 20 lineups, but I would with 5 or less. Alvey is a guy that nobody will look to and he does have fight ending power. I would think he is around 5% owned this week and that is a guy I can see breaking the slate. Plus, he is a DFS Army member, so we have to root for him, right? I will be overweight to Alvey in GPPs, but it only takes 2 of my 20 lineups to do that. This is a GPP only fight for me though and I will be rooting for Alvey to get the KO.
Winner – Da Un Jung via Split Decision
Alex Oliveira $8,500 vs Shavkat Rakhmonov $7,700
Alex Oliveira
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 76.5”
Gym: ATS Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 11-6-1
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -+100
Alex Oliveira has looked good of late winning back to back fights. He soundly defeated Peter Sobotta in his last fight and fought to more of a game plan. It was a smarter, more composed style of fighting than what are used to from Oliveira. Cowboy is a slight favorite in this spot as he welcomes undefeated prospect Shavkat Rakhmonov to the UFC. Oliveira is a cobra. He is super dangerous, athletic, and looks to land one shot kill shots. Oliveira is long, rangy, and likes to counter punch. He has heavy low calf kicks. He holds his hands low to try to goad opponents into throwing, so he can counter with his straights. Oliveira has a long one-two. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. Oliveira throws a very dangerous counter uppercut. He closes distance very quickly & is dangerous with blitz attacks. Oliveira throws some nice round kicks to the head. Oliveira is very hittable himself. He struggles to defend against jabs & straights. His chin is slowly eroding, and he isn’t as durable as he once was. He has only been finished one time by strikes but has taken a lot of damage. He still has that crazy warrior spirit though & is just as wild. He is dangerous & can turn the lights out on any fighter at any moment. Oliveira has 12 KO/TKO’s.
Alex Oliveira is a dangerous grappler as well. In the clinch, he has nasty elbows & knees. He will post and throw heavy elbows. Oliveira will look for trips & body locks. He will shoot in on double legs. On top, Oliveira has heavy ground & pound. Oliveira can get sloppy transitioning & get reversed. He can be taken down himself as well in the clinch. He has pretty good sprawls and underhooks. He can overextend on punches & get taken down if fighters time level changes well. Oliveira is not that good off his back. He can be controlled & dominated. Max Griffin made their fight very close with his wrestling by controlling Oliveira for periods in the first and third round. Oliveira does have good guillotines, nice rear naked chokes & good ground & pound. Oliveira has been submitted three times himself. He seems to slow down now in fights and doesn’t have great cardio.
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Age: 26
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: N/A
Gym: Kazakhstan Top Team
From: Kazakhstan
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: -120
Shavkat Rakhmonov will be attempting to make his UFC debut for the third time. He has had fights with Bartosz Fabinski, and Ramazan Emeev cancelled. Rakhmonov even had a different opponent initially scheduled for this card in Zaleski Dos Santos. He is getting a similar opponent in fellow Brazilian action fighter, Alex Oliveira. Rakhmonov hasn’t fought in over a year so we will have to see how he looks. At just 25 years old he should be getting better every day. Rakhmonov is an aggressive finisher. He is well-rounded with seven knockouts and five submissions. Rakhmonov on the feet is technical. He has good fakes & feints. He has a good jab & lead hook. His length helps him keep range & pot shot. He has a good one-two. Rakhmonov’s hands are fast. He will throw some solid hand combinations on the inside. He has good one-twos and a good uppercut. Rakhmonov attacks the body well. He doesn’t throw a ton of kicks, but he has some nice spinning kicks to the body & head. Rakhmonov’s defense on the feet isn’t the greatest. He stands tall & is susceptible in exchanges. I have seen him dropped hard in previous fights. Rakhmonov has seven knockouts.
Shavkat Rakhmonov is an aggressive submission grappler. He has some decent timing on his level changes. The most proficient takedowns he has are in the clinch. He has nice trips & judo throws. Rakhmonov has solid control & ground & pound on top. Rakhmonov likes to get to the crucifix position and rain down shots. He will mount & throw heavy ground & pound. Rakhmonov will take the back & hit rear naked chokes. He will look for guillotines. Rakhmonov pulls guillotines too much & will put himself on his back. Off his back, he will attack with elbows from his guard and has a good triangle. Rakhmonov has five submission wins. His cardio & composure are really good. I’ve seen him hurt, recover and come back to win.
Rakhmonov is making his UFC debut here with an undefeated 12-0 record. All 12 of his wins are from finishes and he has only been to the 3rd round one time. 22 of Oliveira’s 30 fights have also ended ITD and right now Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is + money. I think Oliveira is going to be the better striker here and he might be able to finish Rakhmonov early or drag him into the later rounds and get a knockout then. Rakhmonov looks to be the better grappler and he can get a submission if he is able to land takedowns, which I think he can. Right now, my favorite pick would be that this ends ITD instead of picking a side, but I will lean with Rakhmonov as my prediction.
Rakhmonov is my preferred play in all formats because of the value we are getting. He is shifting to be the betting favorite, but he is $800 cheaper than Cowboy on DK. I like taking that value in cash games and it’s hard to pass in GPPs even knowing it will make him chalky. I think Cowboy is a solid GPP play because he will be low owned, and he could finish Rakhmonov, but I won’t get much of him personally. I think fading this fight could be a way to avoid the Rakhmonov chalk as well and hope that Cowboy wins a decision with less than 80 DK points.
Winner – Shavkat Rakhmonov via 2nd round Submission
Casey Kenney $8,700 vs Nathaniel Wood $7,500
Casey Kenney
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Rise Combat Sports
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 4-1
Last Fought: 2 Weeks
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -175
Casey Kenney is coming back just two weeks after his last fight. He looked better than ever & ran a striking clinic on Heili Alateng. Now he is back & looking to make it 3 in a row. Kenney is a southpaw who looked super accurate and on fire vs Alateng. His left kicks to the legs & body and left straight seemed like they couldn’t miss. Kenney has a good jab, nice one-twos & decent hand speed. When he backs opponents to the cage, he likes to use right hook, left hook combinations. He will finish combos with nice head kicks. Kenney has nice round kicks to the body & head. Kenney will also attack the body with punches, and he’s got a good, counter left hook. He will look to grab the Mai Thai plum & throw knees up the middle. He has a recent knee knockout that way. I would say he is the more fluid striker in this matchup, but both guys are predominately grapplers. Kenney likes to walk opponents into straights & kicks and be pretty. Kenney didn’t enjoy getting pushed backwards against Merab & Manny Bermudez and ate some big shots that had him hurt. Kenney is heavy on his lead leg & doesn’t move his head in exchanges. He is hittable and doesn’t have great defense. Smolka was ripping his body in their match, but he did drop Smolka. Kenney isn’t a big knockout threat with just two in his career. He does throw hard & seems to be getting more comfortable with his hands. He has never been finished.
Casey Kenney is a very strong grappler. Kenney is very strong in the clinch with judo throws & trips. He is a multi-time American judo medalist. He is good at opening up the takedown threat with elbows & knees in the clinch. He also can get big, explosive, slam takedowns with singles & doubles. One of his knockouts was a slam knockout. Kenney has nice ground & pound and has good power. His riding ability is elite, and he will just float and keep top position for fifteen or twenty-five minutes. He likes to take the back & was able to get the back of Ray Borg & Bermudez multiple times. Borg was able to scramble out of those positions time & time again, but Borg is one of the best scramblers in the sport. Kenney has been taken down a ton in three UFC fights. He was slammed multiple times against Merab & Borg with doubles. He also had his back taken but is very good at shaking opponents off. Against Bermudez & Merab, you could tell the size was a factor, and they were able to get some easy clinch takedowns. Kenney is never static when taken down, and very hard to control. He wins fights by winning scrambles & being the better grappler in most fights. Kenney does have 5 submissions. Kenney has slowed down in round three of his UFC fights.
Nathaniel Wood
Age: 27
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Great Britain Top Team
From: England
UFC Record: 4-1
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +155
Nathaniel looked good in his last fight. He showed sharp hands and was throwing some nasty front kicks to the body. Wood is more of a Muay Thai striker. He plants his feet & has much less movement. He is very quick & has a nice jab and hard leg kicks. He has a good overhand right. He will throw hard counter left hooks. He likes to counter with straight-right hands, and hooks. He will throw a left hook, front kick to the body to a straight-right hand combination. He has a nice front kick to the body. He looked great in his match with Andre Ewell. He walked down Ewell and took it to him. He has good head movement and a great chin. He is willing to take shots to give his own. He throws a lot of volume, and slowly starts to wear on opponents if fights go long. If he gets clipped, he will back up to the cage, and use head movement and a high guard to defend while trying to land one big shot. While it isn’t a great strategy IMO, he has been able to catch and finish opponents doing this. We saw in his fight when he backed up in a straight-line, Dodson just followed him and landed big, straight punch combinations. Wood definitely is very durable, but he did get dropped and finished in his last match. Wood has one punch knockout power if he lands clean and keeps his power for all three rounds. He has 9 KO/TKO’s, and only been finished twice by strikes.
Nathaniel Wood has shown progression in his game and is starting to use his grappling offensively much more in fights. In the UFC he has three submissions in three wins. Wood timed a nice body lock & double leg against Andre Ewell & controlled him easily. He was able to land big shots from inside his opponent’s guard. Wood is a veteran now. He works smart & doesn’t give up top position stupidly. Wood showed a nice back take & rear naked choke when Ewell went to stand up. In round one of his last match, Wood was taken down with a body lock by Jose Quinonez but was able to sweep and stand up pretty quickly. In round two he was able to takedown Quinonez with a body lock, take his back & get the rear naked choke. He has done that in back to back fights & it looks like that back take is his thing. He hits it like butter & the choke has come shortly after. Wood is very technically sound both on the feet & on the ground. Wood has an excellent front head lock series. He will jump on darces very quickly. Wood is dangerous on the ground, but I definitely think he will struggle to take & hold down Kenney. Wood has five submissions in his career. He has been submitted twice, but the last time he was submitted it was 2015. Wood has excellent cardio & will not get tired.
This is my 2nd favorite fight on the card with two future contenders going at it. I love this fight, and this is my pick for FOTN. Wood looks like the better striker with more power, but Kenney is more durable and looks very solid on the feet as well. Kenney looks like the better wrestler, but Wood might be the more dangerous grappler. They are close everywhere and I don’t see any clear path to victory for either guy. I do think this should be closer to 50/50 though so I will side with the underdog to win a close, decision fight. Kenney won’t be able to just walk Wood down and land at will like he did in his last fight because he will have to respect the striking from Wood where that wasn’t an issue against Alateng and I think that fight might be inflating the Kenney line.
This is going to be close to an all-in fight for me because I think it will be the highest paced fight on the card. Wood is my preferred play because he is cheaper, and he has scored 90 or more in all his UFC wins. If Wood does get the win, I feel confident he scores more than 10x and that is why I will be overweight to him. I think he is a solid cash game play as well because Kenney isn’t known as much of a finisher, so we could see 3-rounds of action and even in a loss at his price that could help our cash LUs. Kenney is in play as well because of the pace this fight will take place at and his wrestling advantage. He can land multiple takedowns and he could even finish on the feet or the mat. The durability of Wood could be an issue and lead to a slate breaking KO from Kenney so I will probably look to be in line with the field if not overweight on him as well. If you are confident in him winning, I think he is a fine cash game play too. Love this fight and I hope it is as fun as it looks on paper.
Winner – Nathaniel Wood via Split Decision
Stefan Struve $8,300 vs Tai Tuivasa $7,900
Stefan Struve
Age: 32
Height: 6’11
Weight: 265
Reach: 84.5”
Gym: Team Schreiber
From: Netherlands
UFC Record: 13-10
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -110
Stefan Struve is coming back once again after a long layoff. He looked pretty good ten months ago, but after a lot of nut shots he got TKO’d. Struve has just really struggled to find wins in the latter half of his career. He is 1-4 in his last five fights, has retired a couple times and it’s just hard to see where his head is at. Struve has a decent jab & strong straight-right hand. He will throw check left hooks. He will throw a nice left hook, right uppercut combination, and will throw it 2 to 3 times in a row in the pocket. He has a nice outside low kick. He will throw a lot of front knees, along with front & round kicks to the body & head. He will throw head kicks & does a good job of hiding it behind a jab. He will throwing flying knees. He has looked awful in his last two fights and was largely dominated. He is super tall & not the fleetest of foot. He has always had issues with short, explosive fighters who throw overhands. He will back up to the fence when he gets hurt & cover up instead of moving. He has been KO/TKO’d many times & definitely has a questionable chin. He has been finished 7 times by KO/TKO. He is still dangerous & when he hurts opponents he’s a finisher. He showed a small flash in his last match, where he hurt Tybura with a front kick up the middle and swarmed with punches. He has 8 career KO/TKO’s.
Struve is a good Jiu-Jitsu player and has a ton of submissions in his career. He is very good in the clinch & his height gives him a huge advantage. He has good body lock trip takedowns and is very good in top position. He is super heavy on top & his height makes it very difficult to move under him. He likes to land shots from half guard while looking for chokes. He has good darces & front chokes. He has good takedown defense in the clinch, but easily can get taken down with level changes. Tybura & Arlovski were able to take him down multiple times & rack up top control. He does have a good guard. He does a good job of trapping a wrist & trying to get triangles and armbars. He has gotten beat up in his guard by Overeem & others before. He has 18 career submissions. He has been submitted 1 time in his career.
Tai Tuivasa
Age: 27
Height: 6’2
Weight: 264
Reach: 75”
Gym: Lions High Performance
From: Australia
UFC Record: 3-3
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -110
Tai Tuivasa is in danger of getting cut here. He has lost three fights in a row, and badly needs a win here. Tuivasa is the much better athlete in this fight. He is fast & explosive and can be pretty dynamic for such a big man. He started his career with 7 consecutive KO/TKO’s, and without a finish victory in his last four I’m sure he’s going to be hunting hard for it. Tuivasa is a southpaw striker. I see him being the one going forward & pushing the fight. Tuivasa doesn’t use a lot of jabs or setups. He will throw big, heavy low kicks. Tuivasa has a nasty right hook and can drop opponents with it. Tuivasa has a nice right hook, straight-left hand combination. He will throw a nice left hook, right uppercut combination. He will throw solid left uppercut & overhand left leads. He will attack the body with hook combinations. He will occasionally throw a jab to the body. He will throw straight punching combinations and has fast hand speed. He can do a lot of winding up, and fighters can counter & land first with jabs & or straight punches. Arlovski was able to pick him apart with jabs & broke Tuivasa’s nose. He does have fast feet & can close the distance quickly. When he can back opponents up towards the cage, he’s dangerous. He will throw nasty flying knees & big elbows. Tuivasa has big power with 7 KO/TKO’s in 8 wins. He was finished by strikes for the first time in MMA in his last fight.
Tuivasa isn’t a great grappler, which was exposed against Spivak & JDS. He is heavy & likes to use punches to close the distance and push opponents against the cage. He has great elbows over the top & punches on the break. He doesn’t really go for takedowns and doesn’t look to have much from top position. He was able to get mount due to a mistake by Andrei Arlovski but was unable to get any offense off. In his fight with Sergey Spivak, he was dominated with throws in the clinch got very tired, and then submitted. It was a pretty pathetic performance. When Junior Dos Santos dropped him, he was able to move to mount & batter him. Tuivasa didn’t know how to get Dos Santos out of mount & was trying to throw offense up off his back. Hopefully his time at AKA has helped him a bit.
It’s hard to trust either of these guys but I am taking Struve here. Tuivasa has more power but he needs the KO here for his best path to victory and the only other way he wins is this being a slow-paced fight where neither guy does anything, and he gets the split decision. Struve is much more experienced, he is the better striker, better grappler, and he has a 9-in height and reach advantage. I think if Struve stays conscious, he wins this fight. It could be by TKO, submission, or decision but I will take him to get a finish.
FDGTD is -260 in this fight so that makes this a fight we need to target in GPPs. Either guy can finish here and Tuivasa is live for 100+ with a 1st round KO. Struve has been KO’d 8 times and Tuivasa’s best attribute is his power. I will probably be close to the field on Tuivasa, but Struve is my preferred play in this fight because I think he is better everywhere other than power and durability. He has a huge edge on the mat too if he can get it there and it wouldn’t shock me to see him land something big on the feet and get a TKO. I want to be overweight on Struve in GPPs this week, but this fight is GPP only for me because of their low floors.
Winner – Stefan Struve via 3rd round Submission
Magomed Ankalaev $8,900 vs Ion Cutelaba $7,300
Magomed Ankalaev
Age: 27
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Gorets FT
From: Russia
UFC Record: 4-1
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -320
Let’s try this again. Magomed Ankalaev will finally be trying to put Ion Cutelaba behind him after several attempts at the rematch. We all know the story by now. Ankalaev got a controversial first round finish. Ankalaev has looked great in his last four fights. He picked up a highlight reel victory vs Dalcha Lungiambula. He landed a front kick to the face that knocked his opponent out & gave him the win. He has now won 3 consecutive UFC fights, and quickly is rising the ranks. If he wants a chance at the top 15 he is going to have to go through Ion. Ankalaev is a very athletic fighter for LHW. He is a southpaw & explosive. He has a nice, long jab. He will jab to the body & has hard low kicks as well. He has very nice straight-left hands & left hooks. He likes to throw a round kick to the body to a straight-left, right hook combination. He has a nice jab, overhand right combo. He has a strong counter straight-right hand & counter left hook. He likes to mix in nice shovel hooks & short uppercuts into his hook combinations in the pocket. His rear leg head kick is very fast & he will follow with a straight-left hand down the middle. He is a power kicker, whether it’s to the legs, body or head, and when he lands opponents will feel it. He landed a nasty counter left hook to a head kick combination and finished Marcin Prachnio. Ankalaev was landing a lot of clean shots on Cutelaba, and not getting hit. The fight was stopped early, but he was clearly a step ahead. He is a bit of flat footed, but he walks opponents down & has a presence in the cage. When he lets his shots go, he is fast, and I feel hand & kick speed wise he is one of the fastest LHWs in the division. Ankalaev has power with 8 KO/TKO’s in 13 wins. He has good durability and has never been finished by strikes.
Ankalaev is a very strong grappler, and great wrestler. He is very strong in the clinch & will control opponents against the fence. He will do damage from that position, and land hard elbows & knees. He is great off the breaks and will unload with punch combinations, sometimes finishing with knees to the head. He has strong double legs & can lift opponents & dump them on their head. He has good top control, and he has brutal ground & pound. He has put people to sleep with ground & pound punches. He will move to dominant positions such as mount & usually will finish the fight if he can get there. He was finished via triangle by Paul Craig with one second left in a fight he was dominating. He seemed to panic & may be a quick tapper throughout his whole career. He has good takedown defense and will get double underhooks, snap his opponent’s head down and control on top. He can get taken down, but he stays calm and does a good job of sweeping and getting top position or getting back to his feet. Ankalaev isn’t a submission fighter with zero career submissions. He has good cardio fights composed and should have the technical advantage everywhere here.
Ion Cutelaba
Age: 26
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: CSA Moldova
From: Moldova
UFC Record: 4-4
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +260
Ion Cutelaba is a beast & extremely aggressive early on. He has 11 KO/TKO’s, all in round one. He is fast & explosive early. He has a nice one-two and will throw an overhand right from hell. When he gets inside, he will let his hooks go in combination with vicious power. He will throw wide hooks & overhands in close range while mixing in uppercuts. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks. He will occasionally throw oblique kicks to the knee & low kicks. He will occasionally throw a round house kick to the body. In his last match, Cutelaba was staying lighter on his feet & throwing more kicks. He threw some front kicks up the middle, question mark kicks, and round kicks to the head. I would say it’s the most diverse his striking has ever been. He was also mixing in heavy knees at the end of combinations. In the past, his opponents have started to get a beat on his spinning attacks & cleanly countered him. He can struggle to find his range at times & gets gun shy when countered. Against both Jared Cannonier & Misha Cirkunov, he was coming up short consistently with wild, looping shots & crazy spinning backfists. He did drop Glover Teixeira with a spinning backfist in his last match. It seemed the new style of movement & kicks quickly tired out Cutelaba & he gassed out in like 3 minutes. In round two Glover began to really walk him down heavily & landed big hooks in close range. He allowed Glover to back him up & control the center. The intimidation tactics could be useful here. He does have a good chin & can take a beating. He has 11 KO/TKO’s & has been finished by strikes one time technically, but it was a bad stoppage in his last fight.
Ion Cutelaba showed good fight IQ in his match with Khalil Rountree. He took the fight to his world on the mat & took Rountree out. Rountree was stupidly trying to attack when Cutelaba shot takedowns instead of defending, but when Cutelaba got on top he was ruthless. He rained down elbows & shortly after the fight was over. He is a Greco Roman wrestler, and a Moldovan National Champion in judo & sambo. He has solid double leg takedowns & is explosive with his entries. He is strong in the clinch & has solid body locks & throws. He has nasty knees to the body & elbows to the head in the clinch. He was able to finish Antigulov with clinch strikes. In his fight with Cannonier, he landed several double leg takedowns. He dropped Luis Henrique Da Silva & knocked him out with vicious ground & pound. His takedown defense is much improved. Against Antigulov, he was taken down a few times, but continuously got back to his feet. He eventually battered Antigulov with elbows, knees & uppercuts in the clinch & finished the fight. He defended all 7 of Glover Teixeria’s takedown attempts. He got knocked off balance throwing a strike, and off his back he was dealt with quickly. Glover was able to easily take the back & get the submission. Cutelaba has been finished twice, both by submission. Cutelaba has just two career submissions of his own & isn’t really a threat with Jiu-Jitsu.
This is a rematch from one of the earliest stoppages I have ever seen. We didn’t get to see much from that fight but Ankalaev did look like the much better striker and that is what we thought going in. He has better striking, and defense and he could get a knockout any round. I also think Ankalaev could fight for the belt in the next couple years. Cutelaba has a lot of power though and he can keep this fight close on the feet just on volume alone. He also can land takedowns to steal close rounds or spend some time in top control to win a round. This line looks too wide, so it is dog or pass on the betting line, but I am changing my pick to Ankalaev where I picked Cutelaba outright the first time.
Everyone has been waiting for this fight for a long time now and I think they load up on it on DraftKings. That makes me like it less than I did the first time, but I still want exposure to both guys. Ankalaev is my preferred play of the two with his ITD line of -130, but I might just go underweight to both guys. Cutelaba’s best chance at a win here is an early KO which could break the slate with 100+, so I have to play him as well, but I don’t want to get leverage on a guy I think could be one of the more chalky underdogs. I will get 10-20% of both guys most likely but I would think this fight is in more than half of the total lineups on the main tournament.
Winner – Magomed Ankalaev via 3rd round (T)KO
Lauren Murphy $8,800 vs Liliya Shakirova $7,400
Lauren Murphy
Age: 37
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Main Street Boxing
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 5-4
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -220
Lauren Murphy is in the best form of her UFC career. She has won three consecutive fights & is on the cusp of a title shot. Murphy was expected to face Cynthia Calvillo here, in what was likely a title eliminator fight. Unfortunately for Murphy, Calvillo has pulled and now she’s taking on a UFC newcomer. Any loss for Murphy is pivotal at this stage as she is 37 years old, so she should be locked in and ready to go. Murphy has never fought outside the United States, so I do believe that is a disadvantage for her. I really don’t rate Murphy’s striking very highly. She has slow feet, slow hands & is hittable as she plods into range. Murphy likes to throw a lot of left hook, straight-right hand combinations. She will shoot the straight-right hand to the body also. Murphy will wing some overhands and uppercuts in close range. She timed a nice uppercut as her opponent went for a takedown that rocked them. Murphy will throw some occasional high kicks. In her last match, she stuffed a takedown, landed a knee to the head & got a knockout victory. Murphy is a finisher with 8 KO/TKO victories in 11 wins. She was able to rock Roxanne Modafferi in her last fight flashing her power again. She has won two of her three UFC fights by KO/TKO. Murphy is very hittable as she enters range, but durable. Fighters with fast hands & fast feet can hit & move on Murphy fairly easily. Murphy has decent head movement when closing distance, but in exchanges her hands are slow & she’s there to counter. In her fight with Sijara Eubanks, she was hurt with some big punches. Murphy has never been finished by strikes.
Lauren Murphy is a good grappler & I imagine her looking to wrestle in this contest. Murphy isn’t the most proficient wrestler, but she actually has a fast, single leg shot. She will also shoot doubles. Murphy is pretty good in top position. She will posture up & throw down heavy punches & elbows. Murphy looks to smash opponents’ faces on top instead of looking for the submission. She has finished a majority of her matches with ground & pound. Murphy has good takedown defense & get-ups. She was able to compete in the grappling realm with Jiu-Jitsu black belt Eubanks. Murphy also had two takedowns against a very good grappler in Liz Carmouche. Murphy’s game off her back is pretty solid. She is very flexible & offensive with her guard. Murphy will attack triangles, omaplatas, gogoplatas, and the rubber guard. She will throw nice elbows off her back and stays active. Murphy will attack leg locks & has solid sweeps. Murphy has yet to get a submission in MMA and also has never been submitted. Murphy is someone who maybe isn’t the most talented but will bring it. She will come in shape, push for three rounds & never give up. Murphy gets 100% out of her capabilities.
Liliya Shakirova
Age: 29
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: N/A
Gym: Buka Gym
From: Uzbekistan
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +180
Liliya Shakirova is accepting the call on nine days’ notice. The 8-1 Uzbekistan prospect has a massive opportunity, fighting a top five opponent in her debut. Shakirova has competed in some decent organizations such as Fight Nights Global. She has defeated some fighters with solid records, but Murphy is clearly the best fighter she will have faced. Shakirova is smaller for the division at just 5’4, but she has broad shoulders, a big back and is very strong. On the feet, Shakirova is not the best and is slow & low volume. She comes forward and backs up in straight lines. Shakirova has pretty good forward pressure though, and will look to walk fighters down, tire them out, and land the overhand right. Shakirova is always looking to slip & counter with a straight or overhand right. She has a decent lead hook. Shakirova will throw some kicks. She has decent low kicks, front kicks up the middle, and some spinning kicks. Shakirova likes to use spinning backfists to try to cut opponents off when they try to exit against the cage. She is improving her fluidity on the feet, and her last fight was her best striking performance. Shakirova’s defense is questionable in my opinion. She overextends on her punches and never moves her head. Shakirova has three career KO/TKO’s.
Liliya Shakirova is a grappler. She likes to use her striking to close the distance & get takedowns. Shakirova is strong in the clinch and has good control against the cage. Shakirova is super strong and will hit slams off the cage. She has good timing on her level changes. Shakirova is good at using the level change to get in on the hips, and then hit trips. On top, Shakirova is aggressive with her ground & pound. She likes to take the back. Shakirova can get sloppy & reversed. Off her back she tries to work up to her feet quickly but seems a little lost. I have seen her look for guillotines, where she has no chance to finish, and allow her opponents to move into dominant position.
Shakirova is making her UFC debut here on short notice and she looks like she has been improving in each of her last fights. This is a much tougher matchup though and the success she had in recent fights won’t be as easy against a UFC caliber opponent. I see Murphy being better everywhere in this fight and she can maybe even get a TKO and try to call out her shot at the belt with an impressive performance.
I think Murphy could be a sneaky play in all formats here and I will look to get some leverage on her in GPPs. I think she is the much better striker and she has the power to get knockouts. She is going to be the toughest test for Shakirova and if she can’t get the takedowns on Murphy, I have a hard time seeing her win this fight. I think she is a safe cash game play as well because I don’t see her getting finished, so she should get 3-rounds of points and I feel pretty confident she does get the win. Shakirova is in play in all formats as well if you think this goes all 3-rounds, but she will be more of a fade for me. 0-1 lineups out of my 20 where I would be fine going more than 5 with Murphy.
Winner – Lauren Murphy via Unanimous Decision
Phil Hawes $9,100 vs Jacob Malkoun $7,100
Phil Hawes
Age: 31
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Combat Club
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -255
Phil Hawes finally broke through the wall & got into the UFC. It took Hawes a stint on the ultimate fighter, & two DWCS fights to get into the organization. At 31 years old Hawes still has enough time to go on a run. Hawes is a brick house & an elite athlete. He is very explosive and has fairly technical striking. In round one he throws heavy low kicks, has a good jab and feints his way into range well. On the inside, Hawes will explode with big, concussive, overhands hooks & uppercuts that are intended to put his opponent unconscious. Hawes has six knockouts in eight wins. He does slow down & get sloppy. Once he’s tired he becomes very hittable. He was knocked out with a head kick against Julian Marquez.
Phil Hawes is a great wrestler & former NAIA national champion. He uses his athleticism and power to get on the inside and hit body locks and singles and doubles. Once he gets the fight to the mat, he is very explosive, passes well & throws savage ground & pound. He isn’t a submission threat with just two in his six wins. In one of his two losses, he was caught in a guillotine vs Louis Taylor. Hawes’ cardio is a big question mark, and he needs to try to get it done early here.
Jacob Malkoun
Age: N/A
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: N/A
Gym: PMA Super Martial Arts
From: Australia
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 4-0
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +215
Jacob Malkoun is young in his MMA career at 4-0 but has a lot of hype around him. Malkoun is 3-0 as a pro boxer as well. He is a main training partner for Robert Whittaker and is confident heading into this spot. This will definitely be the best and most experienced fighter Malkoun has ever fought. Malkoun is an impressive striker, who has very good feints, and distance control. Malkoun has very sharp boxing. He drops really nice straight shots down the pipe. Malkoun has really nice tight hooks. He has a great jab & lead hook. He uses that to draw out counters & has very fast hands. Malkoun throws some sloppy kicks. He has some nice low kicks. He will throw some body & head kicks. He should holster the kicks in order to not get taken down in this fight. Malkoun doesn’t have a ton of power, but he is sharp, accurate and has finished two of his four wins by strikes.
Jacob Malkoun is going to be at a grappling disadvantage here. He does have good timing on his level changes and sets them up with his strikes well, though. On top, Malkoun is a bit sloppy, but he throws nice ground & pound. Malkoun off his back isn’t the best. He will attack the guillotine and has an average get-up game. In this fight I feel he could really struggle to stand up if he’s taken down. He is going to need to keep it on the feet and strike here. Malkoun has shown good cardio and is a tough guy who has never tasted defeat.
There isn’t much footage of Malkoun out there but from what I have seen he is mostly a boxer. He probably does have better and faster hands than Hawes, but that will be his only advantage. Hawes has more power, more experience, and his wrestling is going to be a big edge in this fight. If Malkoun can’t get a knockout, then I think Hawes either knocks him out or takes a clear decision with a wrestling game plan.
Hawes is going to be a guy I look to go overweight on here. I think he has early finishing potential and he has a huge edge with his wrestling. Hawes’ ITD is currently lined -130 and he is going to look the best early in this fight, so I think he can finish in rounds 1 or 2 and end up on the optimal. I think he is in play in all formats this week, but his chin is a bit of a worry, so I prefer him more in GPPs. Malkoun is a GPP play only for me and that is if you think he can finish Hawes or stuff takedowns and win on the feet. I don’t see that happening, so I think he made 0-1 of my 20 lineups.
Winner – Phil Hawes via 1st round (T)KO
Alexander Volkov $8,600 vs Walt Harris $7,600
Alexander Volkov
Age: 31
Height: 6’7
Weight: 247
Reach: 80”
Gym: Strela Team
From: Russia
UFC Record: 5-2
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -185
Alexander Volkov is a big, imposing fighter standing 6’7. He is a very solid striker, and pretty athletic for someone his size. He likes to walk down his opponents and keep them at the end of his strikes. Volkov has a great jab, and it’s stiff and powerful really busting his opponents up. He likes to close the distance with a one-two, and he has decent hooks and uppercuts in the pocket. His defense in the pocket is not great and he is there to be hit when he closes the distance with punches. Sometimes fighters can come up short because of his length, and I think Harris will have some trouble having a 3” shorter reach. The best part of Volkov’s striking game is most definitely his kicks. He has hard, inside leg kicks, and a great front kick to the body. He will throw the front kick to the body with both legs, and he will occasionally bring the front kick with the left leg to the head. Volkov has nice step-in knees, and he can be a real killer on the feet when he finds his range. He has been hurt with overhands before by Timothy Johnson in the UFC and waded in stupidly getting knocked out horribly in his last fight. He has only been KO/TKO’d two times in his career, but that last KO was very bad.
Volkov is not the greatest grappler, but he has steadily improved it, and was able to deny the majority of the takedown attempts of Fabricio Werdum in his last match, and was able to survive on the floor with him for a round. Volkov has good takedown defense in space, but if his opponents can push him against the cage, they have a better chance of finishing. Volkov was taken down pretty easily with single legs. Werdum was also able to take Volkov’s back. He does a good job of getting a wide stance and not letting opponents lock their hands together, and eventually circling off the cage. If he gets taken down, he has a good guard and his long legs make it hard to pass. Werdum was unable to pass his guard or do any damage at all on top. Volkov doesn’t have submissions off of his back and doesn’t have many overall with just 3 in his career. He doesn’t have a good get-up game, and if he gets taken down, he usually will not get-up. On top, he has good ground & pound and knocked Werdum out cold with ground & pound. He showed some improvements in his grappling last fight but still got dominated and taken down at will vs Curtis Blaydes.
Walt Harris
Age: 37
Height: 6’5
Weight: 252
Reach: 77”
Gym: SBG Alabama
From: Alabama
UFC Record: 6-7-1
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +160
Walt Harris is an extremely dangerous fighter early. He has finished his last two fights in one minute & two seconds combined. Harris has two second round finishes, but when fights get out of round one he has a record of 2-4-1. Harris has won just one decision in his entire career & it was a contested, split decision victory that was later turned into a NC due to a drug test failure. I like Harris as a striker, but he is just so low volume. Harris has never landed more than 35 strikes in a UFC fight. Harris is a great athlete, and packs huge power. Harris has a good one-two, and his right hand is powerful. He will throw a decent jab. He will throw a jab, right hook as well and an overhand right lead. He has good hand speed, and in close range will let go with hook combinations. He likes to throw check left hooks. He has good inside leg kicks and hard body kicks. He will go to the head with kicks as well. He will throw front kicks to the body. He likes to switch stances to cut off the cage, and he is always going forward and controlling the center. He is the better athlete in this matchup and is going to be the faster fighter in there. He can sometimes not bring his hands back up after he throws punches in the pocket and can get hit with clean counter punches. When Harris lands, he is a finisher, and will close the show. All 11 of his finishes are by way of KO/TKO. He is 5-3 in his second run with the UFC. He has been TKO’d twice.
Harris has been rounding out his game and improved his grappling. He landed a nice single leg takedown against Mark Godbeer and moved right into mount. He was able to takedown Arlovski with a single but couldn’t hold him down. He has good knees to the head in the clinch and attacked with a front choke against Shamil Abdurakhimov. He has great ground & pound especially when he can hurt an opponent. He lands huge elbows & punches and is relentless with the barrage. He has improved his takedown defense and has not been taken down by anyone except Fabricio Werdum on 24 hours’ notice in his last 7 fights. Harris was taken down by a single leg very easily and dominated on the mat before being submitted very quickly. He is hard to hold down and does a good job of bellying down & standing up, but it does give opponents like Werdum the opportunity to take the back. He needs to stay off his back in all his fights to win, because he’s just not good there. Overeem smashed him there as well. He doesn’t have a good gas tank.
Harris has big power and is live to knockout anybody, especially in the first couple minutes of the fight. That is going to be his shot here as well, but if he doesn’t get it then Volkov should win. Volkov is the better fighter everywhere and he really just needs to avoid that big shot and he can win by picking Harris apart on the feet, taking this to the mat, or even getting a KO of his own. I am not a fan of siding with KO or bust type fighters so Volkov is the pick.
Volkov is my preferred play in this fight but mainly for GPPs. I do like him for cash games as well, but he does have a floor of 0, so it’s risky. Harris is a solid GPP play because if he wins, it is very likely a 1st round knockout for 100+ points. I can’t fade Harris this week, so I will try to get around field weight on him, so he doesn’t burn me. Volkov is closer to a core play for me though because he is the better fighter everywhere. Other than power, every advantage goes to Volkov here and he has landed over 120 sig strikes in three different 3-round fights. He could sit back at range and pick his shots for a 70-80-point win here, but I think he is more likely to get 10x or more, so I want to be overweight on him.
Winner – Alexander Volkov via 3rd round (T)KO
Jared Cannonier $8,200 vs Robert Whittaker $8,000
Jared Cannonier
Age: 36
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Alaska
UFC Record: 6-4
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -115
Jared Cannonier is set for the biggest fight of his life at UFC 254. He has been guaranteed a title shot with a win as he faces former champion Robert Whittaker in the co main event. Cannonier has had an odd UFC career, fighting in three divisions, having ups & downs, but he is now knocking at the door. Even after a year away from the sport he still has Israel Adesanya calling his name out. That is a lot of motivation, but a lot of pressure as well. Cannonier is a killer on the feet. He is an awesome athlete & very explosive. Cannonier throws some of the heaviest low kicks in the division. He will chop down opponent’s leg with both inside & outside kicks. He has a very stiff, power jab. Cannonier has huge power at 185 lbs. When he lands his straight or overhand right a lot of fighters tend to crumble. He throws a nice, shovel hook right hand. Cannonier likes to walk fighters down, feint, fake, chop the legs and stay patient. He always has his eyes wide looking to slip & return with his power right hand. Cannonier has a great chin, cardio, forward pressure and can crack. His explosive athleticism to counter when an opponent makes a mistake or blitz in & end their night makes him super dangerous for anyone. Cannonier has won his last four fights by KO & has eight overall. Cannonier defensively isn’t the greatest. He inches his way into range and doesn’t utilize a lot of movement. Quick, agile fighters who can strike from the outside effectively can touch and move on him & walk him into shots. Cannonier also starts slow during the fights & can get out volumed.
Jared Cannonier has improved immensely as a grappler. He is never going to be a guy that will shoot for takedowns, but he is well rounded. He has improved his takedown defense, and when he does get taken down he pops right back up. Cannonier will tire fighters out by never accepting bottom position. If he can sweep or drop an opponent and get on top Cannonier has vicious ground & pound. Cannonier has really good cardio, and never waivers. He is going to be coming forward until the final bell looking for the kill.
Robert Whittaker
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: PMA Super Martial Arts Centre
From: Australia
UFC Record: 12-3
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -105
Robert Whittaker continues his quest back to a UFC title shot, this time as an underdog. Whittaker is a slight underdog as he faces Jared Cannonier who is 3-0 with three knockouts since going down to 185 lbs. Whittaker is fresh off a razor thin decision victory over Darren Till. Hopefully that win gave him some confidence and he looks even better here. Whittaker is a sick striker with a dangerous head kick. Whittaker is more of an outside striker & the battle for distance control will be key in this match. I see Whittaker throwing a lot of inside, outside leg kicks, oblique kicks, sidekicks to the body, and strikes to keep fighters outside. He has a nasty, stabbing front kick to the body. Whittaker is light on his feet & very good at bouncing in & out of range to land combinations. Whittaker will leap in with his jab & uses it to setup other strikes. He will throw a jab, low kick combination along with a jab, left hook combination. He does an excellent job of peppering his opponents with a few shots, and then landing a big shot. Whittaker likes to throw a straight-right hand, then duck under the counter hook and throw a left hook. Whittaker likes to use his front leg to spring into an oblique kick or front left, body kick to a left hook combination. When fighters pressure Whittaker, his counter left hook is nasty. Overall, he has one of the best left hands in the UFC. Whittaker has a nasty head kick that he can throw as the aggressor or going backwards. It is very hard to see coming & he has landed it clean on recent opponents. He finished Jacare with the kick & landed it flush on Romero. Whittaker has earned 9 career knockouts, including 4 in 9 wins at MW. Whittaker has a fantastic chin & recoverability. He proved that in his matches almost being finished multiple times by Yoel Romero but surviving. Whittaker got finished by Israel Adesanya, but who hasn’t. He did get dropped early vs Darren Till but recovered. Whittaker has only been TKO’d two times.
Whittaker is not an offensive wrestler, but he has some of the best takedown defense in the UFC. Whittaker is a former gold medal winner & the winner of the Australian national wrestling championships, and his takedown defense is truly remarkable. He has excellent hips & a great whizzer. He does a great job of bringing his hips back when opponents attempt takedowns & will throw front knees to the body to counter. He does a great job of disengaging the clinch, and just overall is almost impossible to corral. Neither Yoel Romero or Jacare Souza had any success in controlling from top position & I don’t think Cannonier will shoot any takedowns. This fight will play out on the feet unless Whittaker decides to mix it up. Whittaker showed his grappling in his last fight finally. He used it to get a couple takedowns, but also to setup striking opportunities off the breaks. Whittaker has an indomitable spirit & strong cardio. He will be here to fight from beginning until end.
Cannonier looks like a killer at Middleweight and now he is fighting the former champ to get his shot at the new champ. This should be a striking match for as long as it lasts and either guy could get a knockout. Whittaker is probably the better all-around striker with more technique but Cannonier is the one with huge power and he is getting a Whittaker who has taken a ton of damage in his last 4 fights. If this goes to a decision, my pick would be Whittaker. If it ends ITD, my pick would be Cannonier. Choosing between those two is the hard part and I have gone back and forth with my pick for that reason. For betting, I would just take Cannonier by TKO prop, or Whittaker by decision prop, but I will side with Whittaker to stay conscious and get his hand raised for my official prediction.
With this being the co-main event, I think it will be over-owned on DraftKings and that makes me want to be underweight to both sides. I think Cannonier is the better play because if he wins, he likely gets a KO and scores well. If Whittaker wins, he could just win a striking battle with ~65 DK points. I think the field will be higher on Cannonier here so that makes me want to go to the Whittaker side as my preferred play of the two. However, I prefer to just fade both sides if making 3 or less lineups. I wouldn’t want to trust either side in cash games here though so GPP only if I do go there.
Winner – Robert Whittaker via Unanimous Decision
Khabib Nurmagomedov $9,200 vs Justin Gaethje $7,000
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: AKA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 12-0
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W28
Betting Odds: -335
Khabib Nurmagomedov is looking to make it 29-0 and stay the most dominant man in MMA. Khabib is an underrated striker. He has a solid jab, and tricky boxing. He does a good job of coming into fights with a great game plan and executing it to a tee. Against a very dangerous kicker like Edson Barboza, he waded forward with looping hooks and uppercuts making Barboza fight on the back foot and taking away his kicks. Against a crafty southpaw with good lateral movement like Michael Johnson & Conor McGregor, he was much more cautious closing the distance. He did a lot of circling away & moving until he found a well-timed shot. He does a good job of faking a level change and coming back up top to the head with a nice shovel hook. He has a good one-two, and he likes to close the distance with flying knees, but all of it at the end of the day is to close the distance and get a hold of his opponent. His chin has looked granite, and he has never been dropped in his entire MMA career.
Khabib is an astonishing grappler. He is a master of sport in sambo and a judo black belt and has the widest array of takedown attempts in the sport. He has great double legs and can take his opponents for a ride with big slams. He will literally jump on a single leg and grab a hold of the leg like it’s life or death until he drags his opponent to the mat. Khabib doesn’t mind taking ugly shots, because all he needs to do is get a hold of that leg and he is like a magnet. He sticks to his opponents like glue and even if he doesn’t get the initial takedown he will lock his hands together in the clinch and chain wrestle until he gets what he wants. He has great body locks, inside trips, and is relentless switching back and forth until he gets the takedown. He also has great suplexes. When he gets on top, he has unbelievable top control. He does a great job of grape vining the legs and slowly working his way to mount. He also loves to get two on one wrist control and beat his opponents up while they have their arm trapped. He is a phenomenal guard passer and will move right into the mounted crucifix where he is devastating with ground & pound shots. His ground & pound is brutal and relentless with huge power really draining the energy from his opponents. Usually he only needs one takedown to dramatically weaken the fighter he is going up against. He has a nasty kimura, and actually good triangles and sweeps off his back. Khabib has great cardio and puts a pace and pressure on fighters that breaks them.
Justin Gaethje
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 5-2
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +275
Justin Gaethje the interim champion is getting his first shot at undisputed UFC gold. He won the interim title snapping the epic win streak of Tony Ferguson in his last fight. Gaethje comes forward with a high guard and doesn’t back up. He takes shots to return his own & is all about pressure, pace & breaking opponents. Gaethje does a great job of chopping low kicks off the jabs of opponents. Gaethje is always trying to just stick in the pocket & counter with his overhand right or his left hook. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks, and then come over the top with shots. He has huge power & his willingness to take a shot to return with power is why he catches a lot of opponents. Gaethje isn’t the greatest athlete & can struggle to get inside at times. He can throw sloppy right hands to try to get into the pocket & he can’t do that against Khabib. He needs to use his jab to get inside or walk in with his hands up. His defense is terrible. He gets hit with over 10 strikes per minute & the damage he takes is absurd. He has been unscathed really in his last two fights though. He does do a solid job of rolling with shots & blocking them with his arms to take some power off. Gaethje has 19 KO/TKO’s in 21 wins & has been finished by KO/TKO in his two losses.
Justin Gaethje is a former All-American college wrestler, but wrestling is the farthest thing from his mind in fights. He has attempted a couple takedowns in the UFC, when he was badly hurt, but it’s not something fighters really have to worry about as a Gaethje opponent. In the clinch, he is nasty. He will get the single collar clinch & attack with nasty right hooks & right uppercuts to the head. He will attack with the right hand to the body as well. He does a good job of framing with his left hand to give himself more extension & power on his shots. He will also look for nasty knees & elbows in the clinch. He has in the past done a good job of using a takedown attempt to create openings for shots. Against Luis Palomino, he got in a double leg, disengaged, and immediately threw an uppercut that dropped Palomino. He has good takedown defense himself, but it will be tested more than ever here. Gaethje is a great scrambler, has a good double leg, and just great balance and athleticism. He is extremely hard to hold down. I feel the wrestling will be close but if Khabib can cement him on the ground he will have a big advantage. Gaethje gives his back to stand up. He doesn’t have the best submission defense either. He likes to just slam opponents out of sub attempts. Gaethje has just one career submission & has never been submitted.
This is a great matchup! Gaethje has one of the best chances of beating Khabib because he does have a wrestling background and he is the much better striker of the two. If he stuffs takedowns, he wins on the feet and he is live for a knockout as well. He also has brutal leg kicks that he can use to try and slow Khabib down. I think he can and will stuff takedowns in open space, but against the cage is going to be a different story and once Khabib gets ahold of him he will hunt for that takedown until he gets it. Gaethje won’t have anything to really offer off his back so he has to get back to his feet to win and I think the KO is going to be his only shot because Khabib won’t accept a striking match here. I was tempted at taking Gaethje because of these odds but I can’t do it. Khabib is just too good at what he does and if he doesn’t get knocked out, I have a hard time not seeing him win at least 3 of the 5 rounds.
This is going to be an all-in fight for me, and I will be stacking in cash games. If Gaethje wins this fight, there is no way he doesn’t end up on the optimal lineup. If Khabib wins, maybe Fight Metric deems 4% of his strikes as significant, so that would be the case for fading this in GPPs. Right now, I have 20 lineups and I used this fight in all of them. I am higher on Khabib though and as long as FM counts his strikes, he has 150-point upside. We have seen him land 21 takedowns in a fight and he is going to need to get this fight to the mat every round to avoid danger and clearly win. If Gaethje is hard to hold down, then that will lead to more takedowns from Khabib. I am a bit north of 60% on Khabib this week and he is just too damn good for me to invest much against. I do think Gaethje is very live in this fight, but so does the field and I think the field has more exposure to Gaethje than me this week.
Winner – Khabib Nurmagomedov via 4th round Submission
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t takedown a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on Twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on Twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com and promo code DFSArmy saves you 25%.
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 145-122 for +237.53u (+$23,753) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.