Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We kick off the 2020 playoffs at Darlington, and what better way to do it than with Throwback Weekend? If you aren’t familiar, we’ll see a lot of neat throwback (old school) paint themes, so if nothing else, that’s a good enough reason to tune in and watch. There’s still money to be won, so let’s dive in and see what this track is all about.
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Darlington International Speedway
Ah, the Lady in Black. Darlington is unique in its 1.366 mile configuration, but not unique in the fact that we’ll see north of 300 laps (367 to be exact).
Dover part 2?
There is no other track exactly like Darlington, but Dover would be your best bet if you want to cross-reference any other data. Wouldn’t it figure that we just had two races there not too long ago? Seeing that we only had a Daytona race in between, I suspect that most teams will already have a pretty idea of how they want to have their cars set up this weekend, so I expect to see most teams (especially those in the playoffs) coming out the gate strongly. You might be already thinking it, but I think that’s going to help a certain Kyle Busch out quite a bit!
The Field
Hybrids
Speaking of which, he makes the list as one of the two hybrids this week, along with Erik Jones. I do think Jones is the stronger of the two, partly due to his starting position (30th), and partly due to the fact that he has an average finishing position of 5.4 in five races here. Add in the fact that he’s shown some dominator upside (led 27 laps back in May and 79 laps last year), and we have the guy who probably has the best chance of being in the winning lineup of the entire field. Needless to say, he’s core in all formats.
As for Kyle, he’ll start 15th, and also has a pretty strong history here, which includes plenty of dominator upside as well (several strong performances ranging from 44 to 265 laps led in his 17 races here). What makes me really like him is the fact that we’ve seen two races at Darlington this year (he finished 26th at the first one and 2nd at the second), as well as the two Dover races I mentioned (finished 11th at the first, 3rd at the second).
Notice a trend? As has been the story with him, he doesn’t do very well without practice, but after he’s had some car time, he really turns things on. Granted, I would like him more if we had two more Darlington races today/tomorrow, but I do think that the two recent Dover races will help give him a boost. Now, I don’t think he’ll be sneaky by any means (starting 15th for how cheap he is), but I still really like him here regardless. I also think he’ll have some extra motivation today, seeing as he hasn’t won a race in 2020, and it would be like him to take the first playoff victory after a win-less season.
He’s fine in all formats but I think he could really shine in GPP, especially in any lineups where you aren’t taking Hamlin or Harvick.
Dominators
Speaking of those two (let’s call them the H’s), let’s transition right on over to the dominators. It’s impossible not to look directly at these guys, as they’ve been the story of so many races. Not only did they split the two Dover races, they split the two Darlington races this year as well, and they’re easily the favorites to fight for the win today. I think both are fine for cash games (GPP too of course, don’t play GPP without them), but if you can’t decide between them, I’d probably go with Hamlin first since he has the starting position advantage (it’s a lot easier to hold the lead here than it is to take it away), and he had some extra track time yesterday.
After that, I like Truex, Keselowski, Elliott, and then Bowman. I like them in that order, though Bowman is several notches below the others (consider him a dart).
Truex can’t stop finishing 3rd or 2nd, and should a few things go in his favor, he would be a favorite to upset the H’s. I could easily see him leading 75-100 laps here, perhaps even more. I would say he has the same upside as those two, just a lower chance of doing it, but also with lower ownership. Great GPP pivot!
Keselowski is similar, but he’s been more consistent finding the lead here. He was somewhat quiet at the Dover races (but still finished 9th and 8th), led 80 at the first Darlington race, and as usual, he likes to go off when nobody is on him. Seeing that people will be all over the H’s, this makes a great time to jump on Keselowski.
Elliott has the pole, which is usually a very good thing for a dominator here, but with how strong the H’s have been, and the fact that Elliott hasn’t really shown dominance here, I’d lean GPP instead of cash. Still, he’s worth having exposure to in case he can fend off these other four I’ve mentioned, as there’s always a chance he can camp out up front for half the race.
Bowman is a dart play, but he did lead 41 laps here in May to go with a 2nd place finish, so he’s worth sprinkling around as sort of a co-dominator. Still, all of his other finishes here have been pretty lackluster, so he’s GPP only. Blaney is in the same boat here too, if you want another dart to throw while you’re at it.
Sep 2, 2018; Darlington, SC, USA; A general view of the grandstands during sunset during the Bojangles’ Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports
Studs
Johnson is my favorite stud here, with some very strong showings at both Dover and here at Darlington this season. Even though he missed the playoffs, I expect him to still give it his all, as I know he wants to go out with a win. This would be one of his best chances in the remaining races, so a top-10 (or even top-5) is possible, if not likely. If for some reason you aren’t playing him in cash games, be sure you are in GPP!
After that I like Kurt/Bowyer/Logano/Almirola. They’re all sort of like Keselowski in a sense, as they all offer some lead lap and top-5 upside, and I like them in the order listed. They’re fine to stack with any of the dominators, or guys like Johnson/Kyle Busch. See the coach’s cheat sheet for more specifics to why I like each one of them.
DiBenedetto/Austin are sort of the same play here. Both do offer top-10 upside, but they aren’t cheap enough to where that alone will get them in the winning lineup. Not without some chaos at least, so they make good pivot options in lineups where you might fade some chalk like Jones or Johnson. They aren’t in play to outscore drivers like them, they’re in play to do “just enough to tie a lineup together” in the event that the more popular drivers drop duds.
And finally, Stenhouse. There’s no telling where he’ll wind up, but starting 29th gives him plenty of upside if he lands in the top-10 or close to it. It’s possible, as he finished 10th at one of the Dover races and has finished 12th here in the past, but we know all too well how unpredictable he can be, so lean GPP here if you can help it. As usual, he’s the biggest “risk/reward” play of the day.
Value studs / Value drivers
Newman is a strong option here, sort of the Johnson of the value drivers (or a cheaper/safer version of Stenhouse). I don’t think he has quite the top-10 upside, but as long as he stays clean, should see a finish somewhere in the 15th to 18th place range. Of course, if things go his way, he could see something closer to a top-10, and starting 31st gives him lots of upside with a finish like that. Strong go-to option in this price range.
Reddick is the higher-ceiling version, though I can’t say his floor is any lower. Anyway, Reddick was quiet enough at Dover (while still showing promise) that I love him coming into this race. He finished 13th and 7th at the Darlington races in May, and I think there’s a good chance we’ll see another strong performance, even if he didn’t make the playoffs. The same can mostly be said for Bell who finished 11th here in May, but didn’t do a whole lot at Dover. He makes a solid GPP option as well.
Speaking of playoffs, Custer did make the cut, and he finished 11th and 10th at the Dover races. Unfortunately, his Darlington races weren’t so great, where he finished 22nd and 31st. With him starting 14th I don’t think he’ll be popular enough to warrant taking him in cash games, but could still be useful as a pivot in GPP, as he’ll want to come out strong and grab a top-10 to start his post-season campaign. I’d probably put Nemechek here as well, due to his 9th place finish back in May. It’s not super likely to happen again, but it’s not impossible.
The rest of this group (Kenseth, McDowell, Ty Dillon, Preece, Suarez, and Buescher) are all in play as pivots, but none of them really stand out to me all that much this week (aside from Kenseth finishing 10th here in May and 15th at Dover). I suppose McDowell and Ty Dillon could be considered the other decently strong options here, since they had a hot run not too long ago, but none of the rest are in spots that really speak to me.
Punts
Not much to choose from down low, but Chastain starts nice and deep and isn’t very expensive. He knows his way around this track and looked good at the XF race, so if he can put together a decent race he could move up and start to pay off pretty quickly. He shouldn’t have any trouble getting around the punts at the very least, giving him a top-30 floor at the very least. Anything like that would be enough for cash games if you have your dominators in order, and a top-25 or better finish would start to see GPP-winning upside.
LaJoie is the other option, and while his finishing position upside is fairly decent for the price, his starting position isn’t nearly as enticing as Chastain’s is. For that reason I would lean GPP here, mostly used as a pivot for him.
Quick recap
Hybrids
- Jones, Kyle Busch
Dominators (1 + hybrid(s) for cash, up to 2 for GPP….3 if you’re really brave but not recommended for most lineups)
- Primary – Hamlin/Harvick, Elliott
- Secondary – Truex, Keselowski, Bowman/Blaney
- Co-dominators – Bowyer/Kurt/Almirola/Logano
Studs
- Johnson, Kurt/Bowyer, Logano/Almirola, Stenhouse (wildcard)
- Pivots – DiBenedetto/Austin
Value studs
- Newman, Reddick, Bell
- Pivots – Custer/Nemechek
Value
- Kenseth, Ty Dillon, Preece, McDowell,
- Pivots – Buescher/Suarez
Punts
- Chastain, LaJoie
Closing thoughts
Not much left to go over here. Don’t forget about the sweet throwback cars, playoff narratives (for all races moving forward), and don’t forget to mind the pivots, especially in the low to mid/high range. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!