Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We head to Richmond this week for the second race of round one, this time at a proper short track. Things are a bit different here than what we saw at Darlington, so let’s dig in and see what we can find!
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Richmond Raceway
While Darlington could be looked at as sort of a short-ish/intermediate-ish track, Richmond is an honest short track, at only 3/4 of a mile per lap. Even so, we’re only going from 367 laps (last week) to 400 laps this week, so our dominator requirements will stay mostly the same. I’d aim for two dominators for all formats on both sites as a good starting point, with three being viable for DraftKings GPP if you wish to go that route. Of course, there’s always room for some solo lineups (GPP only), but I do think two dominators will be the ticket.
Punt the punts
It’s a short flat track, and just like Phoenix, I don’t like the punts here. If you recall, the slower cars tend to get locked down in what I call “staggered formation hell.” When that happens, there’s basically zero chance for them to gain any positions (on top of how hard it is for them to do it naturally anyway). Except to see them down multiple laps much quicker here than what we see at a lot of other tracks, far from being on the lead lap.
Trivia time! Of all the tracks on the circuit, guess which one has the fewest number of total DNF’s? That’s right, Richmond. On average, we see about 2.5 fewer DNF’s here than the average track (for comparison, Daytona/Talladega have around 4.5 more DNF’s than average).
Combine the previous two paragraphs and we see that not only are the punts in a bad spot, but pretty much anybody not in a decent car will face some natural struggles. The chance of seeing long green flag runs will be at its highest here, which means that we could very well see less than half the field on the lead lap by stage 3. In other words, punts are definitely out, but building a bit more balanced (instead of something more geared towards stars & scrubs) is also much more in play.
Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we will see a solo dominator performance (there will still be green flag lead changes, a competition caution, and three stages), but it’s a little more likely as well. Don’t be afraid to play some of those lineups in GPP!
Final note, just like Phoenix, New Hampshire is also a good track to cross reference to Richmond, as these are all short flat tracks.
The Field
Hybrids
Truex will start 14th today, which sure, it isn’t somewhere super deep in the field, but it’s good enough for me. He’s a great fantastic play in all formats, so just stuff him in wherever you can. I knew his performance last week was coming, and this is another track that he can do it at, like he has done over and over. Nearly a thousand lead laps over the last seven races here? Yeesh! Two wins and two 3rd place finishes? Crazy. Play Truex!
Dominators
Even though he’s sucked at the larger tracks without practice, these short tracks are a prime place to play Kyle Busch. He’s just really good at short tracks and is among the most likely to get up front and lead 100+ laps today (only Truex has led more laps in recent races here). Starting 6th puts him in a place to do that as early as the competition caution, making him both a good pivot and stacking option to anybody else. He’s also a solo dominator option for GPP.
Keselowski has also looked fantastic at these tracks this year (led 184 laps and won at New Hampshire), and his recent history here (all top-11 finishes with a decent chunk of lead laps since 2017) tell me this is a great place to take some shots with him. I’d have to put him right up there with Kyle Busch as the two strongest dominator options that aren’t driving the #19. He’s also an option to use for solo dominator lineups.
I’ll put Hamlin up next, as he’s sort of the “short/flat track guy” we’ve come to love. Now, he hasn’t quite done it here over the last few years, it’s not a big hit on him, considering those races were all dominated by Truex/Kyle Busch. This year has been nothing short of fantastic for Hamlin, and today could easily be a day he leads a large chunk of laps. Be sure you’re playing him!
Harvick has the pole, and while he hasn’t really had that dominating performance here lately, he’s looked incredible and will carry plenty of momentum from last week. Even if he only leads to the competition caution, I think we can safely assume he’ll finish in the top-8 somewhere, which will return plenty of cash value, so he’s good to go in all formats. However, if you’re unsure, or want some savings, feel free to use Keselowski here for cash games and keep him in GPP instead.
These drivers already listed can be used as primary or secondary dominators. In other words, feel free to mix and match them with anybody else, including one another. There are more than enough laps to go around to feed them.
For straight up secondary or co-dominators, look at guys like Elliott, Logano, Bowyer, and Kurt. There are others starting near the front, but I think these four would have the best chance to lead some laps along with the stronger options. Of course, if those other ones hog all the laps, none of these guys would lead any at all, so if you make some lineups with only Truex/Kyle/Keselowski/Harvick as your dominator(s), that’s okay too! These are just more options to help be a little different in GPP.
Sep 21, 2019; Richmond, VA, USA; Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. (19) races during the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports
Studs
If you have the salary to spare, I like Johnson in all formats. He’s not finished worse than 12th here since 2014, giving him a very solid floor and a healthy ceiling. Jones I would say has the same upside, possibly more, but his history here is a little rough, so lean GPP only.
Bowyer is always in play at short tracks for his top-5 and lead lap upside. Same can be said for Almirola, but I do like Bowyer more this week.
Stenhouse and DiBenedetto are in decent spots, but I’d lean GPP here (Stenhouse is very cheap on FanDuel though, so cash there is fine). I feel both do have top-10 upside, but the issue is Stenhouse is…..well, he’s Stenhouse (even if this track is safer, he can still wreck himself with a bonehead move), and DiBenedetto tends to do better when we have more speed from the track.
Value studs / Value drivers
Bell, Newman, and Wallace are the main targets here, and really, could probably replace some (or all of) the studs. I listed them in the order I think they have the highest natural finishing position, and we’re talking a top-10 ceiling for Bell and a top-15 (or slightly better) ceiling for Newman/Wallace. All three have strong floors here. None of them are priced up, so mix & match and plug them in wherever you can.
There’s not a ton I love below them, but I would say Nemechek and Reddick are among the best options. Nemechek has a good starting position, is cheap, and a finish around 20th or so is very reasonable for him here. Reddick is stronger at other tracks, but he’s proven to be a top-15 (or better) threat anywhere he races, and he’s awfully cheap for that kind of upside.
For the other value drivers, well, honestly, they’re all just sort of “pool fillers” this week. By that I mean that none of them stand out like these other drivers, so I would just let them hang out in your driver pool and let the Domination Station add them in whenever necessary. If I had to rank them, I’d probably say Ty Dillon, Kenseth, Custer, Buescher, Mcdowell, Preece, LaJoie, then Suarez.
Again, none of them really excite me here, but some are at least in good equipment and could surprise us (Kenseth, Custer, Buescher, McDowell), and have a better chance of holding a decent spot once we see a large portion of the field being put multiple laps down (or moving up some before that happens).
Ty and LaJoie offer some place differential, but this isn’t their strongest track type, so don’t be surprised if they don’t move up a whole lot. They’re also more prone to being put multiple laps down, along with Preece and Suarez.
Punts
Nope!
Quick recap
Hybrids
- Truex
Dominators (2 for all formats on both sites — 1 or 3 can be used for DK but GPP only)
- Primary – (Truex) / Kyle Busch / Keselowski, Hamlin, Harvick
- Secondary – All of the above, Elliott/Logano/Bowyer/Kurt
Studs
- Johnson, Jones, Bowyer, Almirola
- Pivots – Stenhouse, DiBenedetto
Value studs
- Bell / Newman / Wallace
Value
- Nemechek / Reddick
- Decent pivots – Kenseth/Custer/Buescher/McDowell
- Weaker pivots – Ty Dillon/LaJoie/Preece/Suarez
Punts
- Nope!
Closing thoughts
Be sure to keep an eye on the playoff standings as we move towards the end of the season, as we’ll get new narratives every week. Also remember that we don’t like the punts here, as well as some of the value drivers, so try to keep those lineups a bit more balanced this week. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!