Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Carlos Carrasco
- Zac Gallen
- Chris Bassitt
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Indians (-250)
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Indians – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5. Carrasco gets a great match-up even though the Pirates just knocked around the Cubs on Thursday. I love the way that the Indians are playing down the stretch as Jose Ramirez has been unreal in helping the Indians clinch a playoff spot.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last 8 games.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last 7 games.
Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees (-185)
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Yankees – J.A. Happ
Rundown:
This game has a total of 9.5. How fitting that we see the Marlins (Derek Jeter’s team) finish the season in Yankee stadium. The Marlins are in a battle for the postseason and as of writing this, they are up 4-0 on the Braves Thursday night. Alcantara has been really solid since his horrible season debut and he gets a Yankees lineup that should be pretty RH heavy, which is the side he is far stronger against.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last 9 games.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Brett Gardner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last 7 games.
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Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves (-164)
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Chris Mazza
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game has a total of 10. Mazza has given up just 2 HRs this season but he has struggled with run prevention and facing ATL, in ATL, is not a way to get better at run prevention. Wright struggled with his control earlier this season and then was sent down to the alternate site. He returned with some better command and has looked much better. He gets a struggling BOS offense and should offer us some upside but with a lower floor.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last 6 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .303 over the last 6 games.
Cincinnati Reds @ Minnesota Twins (-162)
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Twins – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has a total of 8.5. The Reds aren’t hitting for average right now but they are flashing the power sticks as they have 12 HRs over the last 6 games. Berrios has been filthy at home with an average against him of just .168 and 8 runs allowed in 5 starts at Target Field. Much like the Reds, the Twins are flashing the power as they have 13 HRs over their last 6 games. Mahle has an ERA of nearly 5 on the road this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .247 over the last 6 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .228 over the last 6 games.
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Chicago Cubs (-144) @ Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Yu Darvish
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5. We get an interesting match-up here as the cross-town rivals finish the season against each other. Darvish has been masterful all season but he takes on a dangerous offense, away from home. Cease has been decent and offers us some upside here as the Cubs have been atrocious. They were just dominated by the Pirates.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .070 over the last 6 games.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, James McCann
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last 7 games.
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Blue Jays – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. I want to stack against Lopez here as this ballpark is inviting for HRs and Lopez, while flashing solid ability, just isn’t very good. I like the Blue Jays to stay hot in this spot. Walker has been up and down and the Orioles just woke up against the Red Sox on Thursday so they could be a sneaky team to look at.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .091 over the last 7 games.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last 8 games.
Houston Astros (-170) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rangers – Kyle Cody
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. The Astros offense just went off against Lance Lynn of all people on Thursday night. I think they are going to be pretty popular in this spot but with how they have performed this season, I am tempted to look DEEPLY into a fade of them as a stack. Cody has been really solid for the Rangers but he does have control issues as he has 10 walks in just 17.2 IP.
HOU 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Michael Brantley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last 7 games.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo (HR hunting)
GPP Note: Team ISO of
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Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Josh Lindblom
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Flaherty is looking to bounce back against the Brewers as they lit him up in his last start against them. He did bounce back with a dominant performance against the Pirates. The Cardinals are going to need 2019 second-half Flaherty if they want to make some noise in the postseason. Lindblom apparently figured something out when he was demoted to the bullpen because he has allowed just 1 run in his 2 starts since returning to the rotation. One of those starts was against this Cardinals squad. Remember that these games are both set to go 7 and that the Brewers NEED wins, so they will have a quick hook when it comes to Lindblom.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Braun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last 7 games.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last 8 games.
Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Undecided
Cardinals – Daniel Ponce de Leon
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last 7 games.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last 8 games.
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals (-152)
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Rick Porcello
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5. There are some potential weather issues here as the Mets look to keep their very slim playoff hopes alive. Scherzer is making his final start of the season and for most SPs, I would be worried about their focus in that situation but Scherzer is a different breed. I expect him to be extremely focused as he closes out a somewhat disappointing season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last 7 games.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Eric Thames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 10 games.
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Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals (-165)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Spencer Turnbull
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8 runs. Surprisingly, Turnbull hasn’t faced the Royals this season. He has control issues this season and he has been flat out bad when pitching on the road. Keller has allowed just 1 run in 27 IP at home this season. He has been extremely strong and now gets a Tigers offense that is struggling, outside of Miguel Cabrera and Willi Castro.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Willi Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last 6 games
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez, Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last 7 games.
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Dinelson Lamet
Giants – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. We have to make sure of the order of SPs during this doubleheader. We know that Lamet will pitch in one of the games and he is a VERY strong option in whichever game he does pitch in. Anderson has been at his best when pitching at home this season but this isn’t an easy task.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last 5 games.
SF 5-star plays: Alex Dickerson
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last 7 games.
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Chris Paddack
Giants – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last 5 games.
SF 5-star plays: Alex Dickerson
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last 7 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays (-174)
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Rays – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Morton hasn’t gone more than 5.2 IP at all this season and knowing how the Rays operate and where they stand right now, I would be shocked if Morton throws more than 5 in this spot. The Phillies need to win this weekend so I expect a sense of urgency on their part. Velasquez is coming off of his best overall start of the season but he has been pretty bad on the road in 2020.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Jay Bruce
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 8 games.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last 6 games.
Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-235)
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Andrew Heaney
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5. Heaney struggled in his first start against the Dodgers and has given up a few HRs recently so that doesn’t bode well for his chances here. The Angels aren’t officially eliminated yet so they do need to win. Kershaw and the Dodgers are just cruising to the playoffs. I have a feeling we may only see 4-5 IP out of him here as the Dodgers get him tuned up for the postseason.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Albert Pujols, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last 6 games.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .262 over the last 6 games.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Remember, again, these games are both set to be 7 innings. Gallen has been impressive during his second season but has kind of limped down the stretch. With that said, he gets a great match-up with an ice-cold Rockies lineup. Senzatella’s second-worst start of the season came against this Diamondbacks squad.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .073 over the last 7 games.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .214 over the last 5 games.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Santos
Diamondbacks – Taylor Clarke
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .073 over the last 7 games.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .214 over the last 5 games.
Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics (-210)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5. The A’s are playing for positioning here while the Mariners are just trying to finish out the season. Bassitt has been a favorite of mine for a couple of seasons and he gets an excellent match-up, as a pretty sizeable favorite. He allowed 1 run to go with 7 Ks in 5.2 IP against SEA earlier this season. Kikuchi actually shutout OAK over 6 IP and racked up 9 Ks in their previous meeting but that was at home. He has been atrocious on the road this season, allowing 12 runs in 14.2 IP.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last 6 games.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Stephen Piscotty
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Minnesota Twins
- Cleveland Indians
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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