Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Lance Lynn
- Ian Anderson
- Kevin Gausman
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians (-119)
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Indians – Zach Plesac
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8. Keuchel returned from a stint on the IL and threw 4 strong. He has made each of his last 3 starts on the road and hasn’t allowed an earned run in any of those starts. Plesac has made two starts against the White Sox this season and hasn’t allowed a run while striking out 18 batters in 14 IP. This is going to be another solid match-up with two very different pitching styles.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last 7 games.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last 7 games.
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Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-180)
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Braves – Ian Anderson
Rundown:
This game has a total of 9.5 runs. Anderson has control issues, as evidenced by his 14 walks in 26.2 IP this season. He has 35 Ks and a 1.5 to 1 groundball to flyball rate. The nice thing is that the Braves are also just letting him pitch. Not really controlling his pitch counts as he has basically been to the 100 number. Lopez is a guy that I always use when he is at home but rarely use him when he is on the road. This is a tough spot tonight, both due to the Braves lineup and potential weather issues.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last 9 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .303 over the last 6 games.
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Chicago Cubs (-191) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Alec Mills
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. Mills allowed 4 runs to the Pirates earlier this month and then bounced back to shut out the Reds over 6 and he followed that up with a no-hitter against the Brewers. He allowed 4 runs in his last start so by deductive reasoning, he should shut out the Pirates here, right? He has gone 6+ IP in 7 of his 10 appearances this season. Walks are a big issue for Kuhl as he has 25 of them allowed in 39.2 IP. He has 5.1 IP against the Cubs this season and has allowed 5 runs in his two appearances.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Jason Heyward, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .070 over the last 6 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last 8 games.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last 7 games.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last 8 games.
Houston Astros (-130) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rangers – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. I can’t remember the last time that I saw Lynn favored in a game, even at home. He just seems to be disrespected all the time and this is a spot where I am FAR more interested in him than his opposing SP. I understand that his worst start of the season came against HOU, in Houston. I just love his ability to get strikeouts and pitch deep because he isn’t going to get baby’d. Javier has turned it around a bit but still has an HR issue. He has allowed 9 of them over his last 36 IP. I am not as confident in TEX as I was with KC against Carlos Martinez yesterday from a betting standpoint but I am getting close.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last 7 games.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last 7 games.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-122) @ St Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Cardinals – Kwang-Hyun Kim
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5. This is an intriguing game as Burnes is right in the thick of the N.L. Cy Young award race and might actually have been leading it until Bauer’s performance last night. I personally think that Bauer locked it up with how he pitched on just 3 days rest, last night. The Cardinals bats are pretty cold and Burnes has been dominant. He should be popular today. Kim is somebody that let me down last time out but he gets a solid match-up here. I do have some interest in Brewers bats as they have had some solid games recently, especially against LHPs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Braun, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last 6 games.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last 8 games.
New York Mets (-118) @ Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – David Peterson
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. Corbin was absolutely lit up in his most recent start but he’s fared better at home this season and is actually 2-0 against the Mets. He has allowed 4 earned runs in 11.2 IP with 12 Ks against the Mets. He just needs to figure out how to keep Michael Conforto from hitting HRs against him. Peterson is coming off of an impressive 10 K performance against the dangerous Braves offense. He allowed an unearned run on just 1 hit against WAS earlier this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, JD Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last 7 games.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 over the last 9 games.
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Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals (-149)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Michael Fulmer
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. Bubic has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts and in 7 of his 9 overall. He has been pretty solid for the Royals and is coming off of back-to-back strong starts. He has actually been a reverse splits guy so far this season and that should benefit him against Detroit. Fulmer faced the Royals in his first start of the season and allowed 3 HRs in 2.2 IP.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Willi Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last 6 games.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez, Adalberto Mondesi
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last 6 games.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-230)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Chi Chi Gonzalez
Giants – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. Gausman has been really impressive this season for the Giants and I am still a bit shocked nobody went after him at the trade deadline. He has 12 Ks in 10.1 IP against COL this season (both starts in Coors). He allowed 5 earned runs on 7 hits in those two starts. Gonzalez has thrown 5 against the Giants this season and has allowed 5 runs. He allows a ton of contact and can get walk happy as well. This should be a strong spot for some Giants hitter upside.
COL 5-star plays: Kevin Pillar
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .084 over the last 7 games.
SF 5-star plays: Alex Dickerson
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last 7 games.
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (-140)
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Alex Cobb
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs. Perez is somebody that we tend to try and stack against and then he shuts down a team or does so just enough that we are annoyed. In his last start against Baltimore, he allowed just 1 run in 7 IP with 6 strikeouts and he shut down the red-hot Yankees in his last start. Cobb has been torched by the Boston roster in his career as they have impressive BvP numbers. He has allowed just 3 runs in 10.1 IP against them this season.
BAL 5-star plays: Renato Nunez
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Pat Valaika
GPP Note: Team ISO of .091 over the last 7 games.
BOS 5-star plays: Alex Verdugo
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last 6 games.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-200)
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Mike Fiers
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. Buehler is making his return from the IL but I have a feeling he isn’t going to be allowed to pitch overly long in this game. They are going to want to get him some work but keep him healthy and fresh for game 2 of the first round next week. Fiers is one of those guys that can tease us with HRs allowed but then rack up flyball outs. We definitely want LAD stacks because when HR variance hits Fiers, it hits him hard. Coming into 2020, Fiers had allowed 144 HRs over the previous 5 seasons.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy La Stella, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 over the last 5 games.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Team ISO of .270 over the last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Boston Red Sox
- Kansas City Royals
- Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Dinger of the Day – JD Martinez, Boston Red Sox
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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