Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Shane Bieber
- Kenta Maeda
- Nathan Eovaldi
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Mets
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Mets – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last 7 games.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last 7 games.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians (-155)
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Indians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7. This series is going to be a blast to watch and as a Twins fan, I will be rooting extremely hard for the Indians here. Bieber has been the most dominant SP in baseball so far this season and the Indians need him here against the White Sox. This Central division race is going to be a blast to watch this final week. Giolito has given up 3+ runs in each of his 4 starts since his no-hitter. He offers us excellent upside in a game that should see very little offense, even though a few of the White Sox bats actually have strong history against Bieber.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last 7 games.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last 6 games.
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Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Sixto Sanchez
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Jorge Alfaro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last 9 games.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 over the last 6 games.
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Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Pirates – Trevor Williams
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .057 over the last 6 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .084 over the last 8 games.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Masahiro Tanaka
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .328 over the last 7 games.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last 8 games.
Houston Astros (-180) @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Zack Greinke
Mariners – Nick Margevicius
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Greinke struggled against the Mariners earlier this season and really hasn’t been his traditional, sharp self up to this point. I think he’s a pretty safe play here even though his K numbers on the road are well below what they are when at home this season. Margevicius has allowed just 2 runs in 7 IP against the Astros this season. I don’t love the spot for him but the Astros aren’t putting up a ton of runs right now (they do have 6 as of 11 pm CST on Tuesday night).
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last 7 games.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .094 over the last 6 games.
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds (-155)
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Reds – Trevor Bauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8. Trevor Bauer is making this start on short rest as the Reds battle for a postseason spot and wants to give Bauer the chance to pitch twice in the final week if things work out the way they want them to. Bauer has always thought he should pitch on 3 days rest so he could get more starts in a season so now is the time for him to show off what he’s capable of doing. Houser has been pretty bad since his first start of the season. He allowed 10 baserunners in 4 IP against the Reds earlier this season. He gave up 4 runs and 2 HRs in that game.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 over the last 8 games.
CIN 5-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last 7 games.
Philadelphia Phillies (-130) @ Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. Eflin is coming off of a dominant start in a 7 inning game and has flashed some really impressive K upside this season but is going to give up some runs here. He allowed 4 runs in 6 IP against WAS earlier this season. Fedde is coming off of his best start of the season but has been absolutely crushed by the Phillies so far in 2020. He has allowed 10 runs in 11 IP while striking out just 5 batters.
PHI 5-star plays: Scott Kingery
4-star plays: Jay Bruce, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last 8 games.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last 8 games.
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Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Wes Benjamin
Diamondbacks – Alex Young
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last 7 games.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over the last 6 games.
St Louis Cardinals (-120) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Carlos Martinez
Royals – Danny Duffy
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. Martinez has been absolutely atrocious this season and he hasn’t been good against either side of the plate. The Royals bats let me down on Tuesday night but I will be going right back to them in this spot. Duffy has given up 4 HRs in 15 home IP this season. In those IP, he has given up 11 runs on 16 hits. He just hasn’t been very good either but I am shocked to see that he and the Royals are the underdogs here.
STL 5-star plays: Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last 9 games.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez, Adalberto Mondesi
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .092 over the last 6 games.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-170)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Ryan Castellani
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. With the way that these two SPs have been pitching, I would expect some runs to be scored tonight. The problem is that both of these offenses can go or are pretty cold. The Rockies have basically given up on the season as far as I’m concerned but a guy like Castellani is probably fighting for a spot next season. He gives up too many HRs at this point so I will be looking to get some Giants exposure.
COL 5-star plays: Kevin Pillar
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Josh Fuentes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .086 over the last 7 games.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Mauricio Dubon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last 6 games.
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (-155)
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. This is an interesting match-up for the pitchers. Kremer has flashed some really impressive K ability and has allowed just 1 run in each of his first 3 starts. Eovaldi gets a great match-up against a cold BAL offense. He has 13 IP against BAL this season and has allowed just 2 runs with 10 Ks. He is averaging nearly 22 DK ppg when at home this season.
BAL 5-star plays: Renato Nunez
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .083 over the last 7 games.
BOS 5-star plays: Alex Verdugo
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last 6 games.
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (-275)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Casey Mize
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8. Somehow Maeda has allowed 6 runs in 12 IP against Detroit this season but he also has 16 Ks in those 2 starts. He has allowed just 4 runs on 8 hits in 27 IP at home for the Twins to go with 33 Ks. This is just a GREAT spot for him as he has been spectacular for the Twins. The Central division is within their grasp here as the White Sox have to face Shane Bieber. Mize has allowed 5 runs with 11 baserunners over 7 IP against the Twins this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Willi Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last 6 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over the last 6 games.
Los Angeles Angels @ San Diego Padres (-190)
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Jaime Barria
Padres – Mike Clevinger
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5. We will need to make sure that Clevinger actually makes this start today. He easily could be on a secret pitch count limit as they get ready for a postseason birth. Barria has allowed 3 runs or less in every appearance this season and is coming off of a strong 8 K performance in his last start. His teammate, Canning, struck out 10 on Tuesday night so there is some upside but the Padres are a very dangerous offense.
LAA 5-star plays: Jared Walsh
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over the last 7 games.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last 5 games.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-165)
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5. Urias has an ERA at home of just 2.84 and an average against him of .217 this season. He isn’t too priced up on DK so I think I will have some exposure to him because the A’s offense just isn’t performing right now. Sean Manaea has been really bad away from home this season and that’s not a good thing when heading to LA to face this Dodgers lineup.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .084 over the last 5 games.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, AJ Pollock
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 over the last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Cincinnati Reds
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Mike Moustakas, Cincinnati Reds
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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