Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Gerrit Cole
- Framber Valdez
- Brady Singer
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Tampa Bay Rays (-122) @ New York Mets
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Blake Snell
Mets – Seth Lugo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I really thought we would get a better Mets performance on Monday night and now they have to deal with Snell. I am just not sure that we see Snell with ceiling upside at all this season. He has bypassed the 100 pitch count recently but he keeps getting yanked around. I think he’s pretty much maxed at 6 IP at this point. Lugo was absolutely lit up in his last start and I see some of those same issues happening here.
TB 5-star plays: Nate Lowe
4-star plays: Manuel Margot, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last 7 games.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last 6 games.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians (-195)
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Reynaldo Lopez
Indians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8. This series is going to be a blast to watch and as a Twins fan, I will be rooting extremely hard for the Indians here. Bieber has been the most dominant SP in baseball so far this season and the Indians need him here against the White Sox. This Central division race is going to be a blast to watch this final week. Lopez has been really bad this season but has been decent recently even though he allowed 3 HRs in his last start. ****Bieber has been moved to Wednesday with Quantrill getting the start today, but will be used as an OPENER****
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last 7 games.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last 6 games.
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Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Jose Urena
Braves – Bryse Wilson
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
MIA 5-star plays: Garrett Cooper
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last 9 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 over the last 6 games.
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Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Jose Quintana/Adbert Alzolay
Pirates – Steven Brault
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Jose Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .050 over the last 5 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jose Osuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last 9 games.
New York Yankees (-240) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Blue Jays – Tanner Roark
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5 runs. The Blue Jays took it to the Yankees staff for 11 runs on Monday night. People are going to see that and have some reservations but realize that the Blue Jays also struck out 12 times in the game. Cole is in a great spot for Ks and the offense should wake up against Roark after going cold on Monday night.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Clint Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .365 over the last 6 games.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last 7 games.
Houston Astros (-170) @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Mariners – Ljay Newsome
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Valdez is coming off of his second 11 K performance of the season and takes on a team that he allowed just 1 run against earlier. He is in a great spot here as the Mariners offense lacks any real punch. Newsome has been pretty bad at home, allowing 3 HRs in 6.1 IP so far this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley
4-star plays: George Springer, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last 6 games.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Lopes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last 7 games.
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds (-148)
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Reds – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8. Gray has been elite at home but he is coming off of the IL to make this start. He is expected to not face any limitations but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a quick hook if he gets into trouble or starts to labor. Anderson has allowed 3 HRs in 9.2 IP against the Reds so far in 2020.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 over the last 8 games.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Shogo Akiyama
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last 7 games.
Philadelphia Phillies (-175) @ Washington Nationals – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Nationals – Austin Voth
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 6.5. We get a doubleheader here so both games will be a 7 inning contest. Nola has been excellent this season but he does have some pretty big home/road splits. With that said, he’s a strong play here in what could be a complete game performance and that bonus on DK is tough to ignore.
PHI 5-star plays: Didi Gregorius
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last 8 games.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yan Gomes, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last 7 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Undecided
Nationals – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
PHI 5-star plays: Didi Gregorius
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last 8 games.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yan Gomes, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last 7 games.
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Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-138)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Diamondbacks – Caleb Smith/Taylor Clarke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. Really interesting to see that Smith will be considered as an opener. I guess they are just going to keep him at 3 IP. Lyles just hasn’t been very good for the Rangers this season and he draws a somewhat hotter ARI offense in this spot. Look for Calhoun to stay hot at the plate.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last 6 games.
ARI 5-star plays: Kole Calhoun
4-star plays: David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over the last 6 games.
St Louis Cardinals (-120) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Austin Gomber
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. Brady Singer has been pitching extremely well of late and the Cardinals offense has been pretty cold. Gomber isn’t a traditional starter so we should only see his max at about 4 IP. The Royals offense overall isn’t clicking but we do see Merrifield and Perez hitting the ball hard, all over the field. Soler returned on Monday for the Royals to add a little more thump to the middle of the lineup.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Brad Miller
GPP Note: Team ISO of .076 over the last 10 games.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last 5 games.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-145)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Giants – Drew Smyly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8. We get a struggling COL offense against a surprising Giants squad here. The Giants are in the thick of a postseason race for the 8th seed. Drew Smyly has been solid for the Giants but he should top out at about 5 IP, even against a struggling Rockies offense. Freeland has been absolutely spanked by the Giants so far this season, allowing 7 runs on 16 hits in 2 starts (8.2 IP).
COL 5-star plays: Kevin Pillar
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Josh Fuentes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .086 over the last 7 games.
SF 5-star plays: Evan Longoria
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last 6 games.
Baltimore Orioles (-107) @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Keegan Akin
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10. Pivetta gets his first start of the 2020 season so we just do not know what to expect out of him. The Orioles will sound out Akin, who has surprised quite a bit so far at the MLB level. He has flashed some impressive K upside but he does draw a somewhat difficult match-up as the Red Sox is a solid offense against LHPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Jose Iglesias
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Renato Nunez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .083 over the last 7 games.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last 6 games.
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Twins – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willi Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last 6 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over the last 6 games.
Los Angeles Angels @ San Diego Padres (-160)
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Griffin Canning
Padres – Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. Canning has been solid recently and is coming off of a very strong start but I have some worries about this match-up and his reverse splits so far this season. Davies continues to be strong for the Padres but he can allow some HRs at times. The Angels offense is swinging it pretty decently, especially Walsh. Could this be the spot where Tatis Jr gets hot again?
LAA 5-star plays: Jared Walsh
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over the last 7 games.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Wil Myers, Fernando Tatis Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last 5 games.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-162)
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Dodgers – Dustin May
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. I am not sure what to do with May here. He was scratched in his last start but then came into the game in relief and was excellent. I am worried we see something weird again here. I feel like if you get scratched last minute from a start, you probably shouldn’t be allowed to pitch. That could just be me being annoyed from a DFS perspective. Montas has electric stuff but he has REALLY struggled with LHBs so far in 2020. This Dodgers team is not the one you want to struggle with LHBs against as they have plenty of them to fire at him.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy La Stella, Jake Lamb
GPP Note: Team ISO of .084 over the last 5 games.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 over the last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- San Diego Padres
- Tampa Bay Rays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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