Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Jacob deGrom – How healthy is he?
- Brandon Woodruff
- Marco Gonzales
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Mets
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Peter Fairbanks/Josh Fleming
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. The big question for me is the health situation of deGrom. I know he completed a side session and was deemed good to go here but your legs are pretty important for pitching. He could re-injure himself on any pitch. I think we have to save deGrom for GPP only given the question mark. Fairbanks should throw an inning and then Fleming is the most likely to follow him but the Rays have shown a willingness to bring in another reliever before going to the long-man (Fleming).
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last 7 games.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, JD Davis
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last 6 games.
Chicago White Sox (-110) @ Cleveland Indians
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Dane Dunning
Indians – Aaron Civale
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8. This series is going to be a blast to watch and as a Twins fan, I will be rooting extremely hard for the Indians here. Dunning has looked strong in his debut season and he takes on a cold Indians squad while Civale has really stepped up this season but he takes on a very tough offense as the top of this White Sox lineup is full of damage-do-ers.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last 7 games.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last 6 games.
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Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-165)
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Braves – Huascar Ynoa
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. I think that the Braves line up very well in this spot against Rogers. I know he has flashed some upside with his strikeout ability but he walks a bunch of hitters and the Braves have some strong numbers against his pitch profile. Ynoa is a two-pitch guy who isn’t going to pitch very deep but should have some success.
MIA 5-star plays: Garrett Cooper
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last 9 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Adam Duvall, Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: Team ISO of .242 over the last 6 games.
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Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Jon Lester
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Lester has been a completely different pitcher on the road this season. He has an ERA of over 5.5 runs lower when on the road so he should be in a strong spot, against a struggling Pirates lineup. He has allowed just 7 runs in 27.1 road innings (21 allowed in 24 home innings). Brubaker has made 2 starts against the Cubs and has 8 Ks in 8 innings while allowing just 2 runs (1 earned). The issue here is that he has been atrocious at home so far this season (17 runs in 20.1 innings).
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .085 over the last 5 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last 9 games.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Michael King (Rumored)
Blue Jays – Matt Shoemaker
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .359 over the last 6 games.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last 7 games.
Houston Astros (-145) @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. McCullers made his return from the IL and was absolutely dominant. I think that is going to lead to him being popular on this slate and while I understand it, I have some worries. He has made two starts against SEA this season and has allowed just 4 runs in 11.2 innings while striking out 13. My worries come from the fact that he has been absolutely HORRENDOUS on the road in 2020. He has allowed 19 runs in 12.2 road innings, with 22 hits and 9 walks allowed. Gonzales struggled against HOU earlier but he has flashed some serious upside, especially in spots you would think he should struggle.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: George Springer, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last 6 games.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last 7 games.
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds (-125)
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5. I love this pitching match-up and these two teams are in a virtual tie for the last playoff spot at this moment. Based on history and pitch profile set-ups, I would think that the Brewers are in the best spot here. I know that Woodruff can struggle a bit more than Castillo, but I just really like his ability. Both SPs should be popular today and I wouldn’t be stacking either side unless you are looking to leverage the field.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .214 over the last 8 games.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last 7 games.
Philadelphia Phillies (-138) @ Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Nationals – Anibal Sanchez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. This match-up should be all about the Phillies, as long as they are mostly healthy for this game. Wheeler shut down the Nationals earlier this season as he struck out 6 in 6.2 innings. His K numbers have been best on the road so far in 2020. Sanchez just doesn’t excite me ever. He gave up 9 hits and a walk in just 3.1 innings against PHI earlier this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Didi Gregorius
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last 9 games.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .086 over the last 6 games.
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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (-215)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Angels – Dylan Bundy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5. Bundy struck out 12 Rangers in 7.1 innings earlier this season but he is coming off of his worst start of the season. He lines up pretty well against a weak TEX squad, especially because of his career tendencies to lean as a reverse splits pitcher. Gibson has been respectable on the road this season and is coming off of his best performance, a complete-game shutout of the Astros. He gave up 5 runs in 5.2 innings against the Angels earlier this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Derek Dietrich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 over the last 6 games.
LAA 5-star plays: Jared Walsh
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .229 over the last 6 games.
St Louis Cardinals (-148) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Royals – Carlos Hernandez
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. We get a strong SP in Wainwright, taking on a somewhat cold offense (minus guys like Perez and Merrifield) and a relatively unknown SP in Hernandez, taking on a very cold offense. The Cardinals need to take this series with how tight everything is in the central division. I might avoid much of this game and only look to target one-offs, like the hot-hitting Salvador Perez or an LHB on the Cardinals.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Brad Miller
GPP Note: Team ISO of .076 over the last 10 games.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last 5 games.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-134)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8. If you had no idea what teams had been like up until today, you would be very interested in Marquez and wanting to stack the Rockies against Cueto. I still think Marquez is a strong option when he is on the road, the problem is his teammates on the offensive side just aren’t scoring runs. He struck out 9 in 7.1 innings against the Giants earlier this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 over the last 6 games.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Crawford
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 over the last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Atlanta Braves
- St louis Cardinals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Luke Voit, New York Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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