Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Zach Plesac
- Sixto Sanchez
- Tyler Glasnow
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Tampa Bay Rays (-198) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Tyler Glasnow
Orioles – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 8.5. Glasnow was dominant in his last start against the Orioles and they aren’t exactly hitting right now. Cobb gave up 3 HRs in 4 innings during his first start back from the IL. The Rays do not have a ton of ABs against Cobb in their careers but they are 11 for 37 with 6 extra-base hits.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Nate Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last 6 games.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Renato Nunez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 over the last 7 games.
Cleveland Indians (-194) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Zach Plesac
Tigers – Michael Fulmer/Daniel Norris
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Fulmer has opened twice against the Indians this season and has allowed 8 runs in 5.2 innings. He has given up 10 hits and 3 HRs to the Indians in 2020. Plesac gets the same plus strikeout match-up that Bieber had last night, without the same strikeout ceiling. It’s a great match-up and Plesac should very much be in consideration for your main cash SP on this slate.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Tyler Naquin
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last 6 games.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Willi Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .098 over the last 7 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Mitch White
Rockies – Ryan Castellani
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. White will be making his first MLB start in Buehler’s rotation spot. I do not know what to expect out of him but I would assume we seem him throw 4-5 innings but that outcome is far from guaranteed with this game being in Coors. Castellani gave up 3 HRs in 4.1 innings against the Dodgers and he also walked 4 batters while allowing 6 hits.
LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Will Smith, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 over the last 6 games.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last 5 games.
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Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Mets – Steven Matz
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Max Fried had been having an incredible season up until his last start and subsequent IL stint. He returns from his back issue but I do have some worries here. He generally doesn’t pitch deep anyways and he was dealing with a velocity drop over his previous two 2 starts. He has been extremely strong on the road this season and he allowed just 2 runs on 2 hits against the Mets earlier. Sounds like Steven Matz will make a spot start here. I am not sure he goes much more than 3-4 innings as he has been throwing out of the bullpen this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Marcel Ozuna
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last 7 games.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, JD Davis
GPP Note: Team ISO .139 over the last 5 games.
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St Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Carlos Martinez
Pirates – Trevor Williams
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Martinez is coming off of a strong K performance but he still just allows way too much hard contact. Williams has been really bad this season and I am quite shocked by that. He is somebody that’s been solid over the last couple of seasons for the Pirates. Remember, these two games are 7 inning match-ups so we get less ABs but more of a chance at a complete-game from our SPs.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last 10 games.
PIT 5-star plays: Gregory Polanco
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last 7 games.
St Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Daniel Ponce de Leon
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Yadier Molina
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last 10 games.
PIT 5-star plays: Gregory Polanco
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last 7 games.
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. So the Yankees have hit 25 HRs over their last 7 games. They are absolutely destroying the baseball right now. I can’t imagine what is going through Martin Perez’s mind here. As a roster, they have hit 6 HRs against Perez in just 71 PAs. Montgomery is coming off of an extremely impressive start and that is going to cause him to carry some ownership. I do like him but I also like the Red Sox against LHPs, in general.
NYY 5-star plays: Luke Voit, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .411 over the last 7 games.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 6 games.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros (-166)
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen
Astros – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8. This game should be a strong pitcher’s duel as it has the best combination of SPs on the day. Gallen had been so strong until his last couple of starts and has dealt with some control issues. He struck out 6 while allowing 2 runs in 6 innings against HOU earlier this season. Shockingly, Greinke has allowed 3+ runs in 5 straight starts. He has been at his best when at home, averaging over 6 more DK ppg on his home mound this season.
ARI 5-star plays: Kole Calhoun
4-star plays: David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last 6 games.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last 5 games.
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San Diego Padres (-174) @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Chris Paddack
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. This series has been moved to SD due to air quality. The Padres get to plat at their home park, which is slightly better for offense than Seattle’s. Kikuchi gets the worst of it here as he has been absolutely atrocious on the road this season. This is going to end up vaulting SD up my stack rankings by the time games get started. Seattle smacked Paddack around for 6 runs in 5 innings earlier this season and now he is making his return after spraining his ankle in his last start.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado
4-star plays: Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 over the last 6 games.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last 6 games.
Chicago White Sox @ Cincinnati Reds (-108)
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Jonathan Stiever
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. We get a relatively obscure SP match-up here. Antone has been somewhat impressive as he has come out of nowhere but he gets a tough spot here as the White Sox are loaded with power and this ballpark is rather small. Stiever had huge K numbers in the minors last season and made his debut last week. He struggled with some command as he couldn’t complete 4 innings after throwing 73 pitches through 3.2. ***UPDATE*** Mahle starting for the Reds.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last 6 games.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last 8 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last 7 games.
TOR 5-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last 5 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Undecided
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last 7 games.
TOR 5-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last 5 games.
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Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Marlins – Sixto Sanchez
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last 6 games.
MIA 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Jorge Alfaro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last 9 games.
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Will Crowe
Marlins – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last 6 games.
MIA 5-star plays: Miguel Rojas
4-star plays: Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last 9 games.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Rich Hill
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley and it’s expected to be pretty cool tonight. I wanted to have interest in the offenses here but at this point, I have to really consider both SPs in that kind of an atmosphere as it will be far from ideal for the hitters. I give the edge to Hendricks but Hill randomly surprises with K performances.
MIN 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .286 over the last 6 games.
CHC 5-star plays: Javier Baez
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last 6 games.
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (-160)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Jimmy Herget/Wes Benjamin
Angels – Jaime Barria
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. The Rangers bats just aren’t dangerous at all while the Angels have been coming to life on the offensive side recently. The top of the Angels lineup is out there producing but that’s to be expected when you have Trout and Rendon. Walsh has been the hottest hitter in baseball over the last 10 games or so.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 7 games.
LAA 5-star plays: Jared Walsh
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 over the last 6 games.
Kansas City Royals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-148)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Danny Duffy
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. Duffy is coming off of his best start but now gets a Brewers squad that is starting to swing it pretty well and a squad that can do some damage against LHPs. Houser has given up 3+ runs in 7 straight starts. He just isn’t very sharp on the mound right now as his stuff just isn’t moving as much as it was to begin the season.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last 6 games.
MIL 5-star plays: Ryan Braun
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Jedd Gyorko
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last 8 games.
San Francisco Giants @ Oakland Athletics
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Coming into this game, I would say that the Giants are the hotter offense but the A’s are just the better team. Bassitt has allowed just 3 earned runs in 23.2 home innings so far this season. He’s just been really impressive all season long and should be somebody we look to be overweight on in our builds.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last 4 games.
OAK 5-star plays: Tommy La Stella
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman, Jake Lamb
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last 9 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Cleveland Indians
MLB Dinger of the Day – Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Indians
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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