Well the first was a blast, lets do it again! Race one was an entertaining one, and eassentially serves as a big practice session for this one – so lets dig in and see what we can find!
Aug 8, 2020; Brooklyn, Michigan, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) holds the lead against Brad Keselowski (2) around turn four during the FireKeepers Casino 400 race at Michigan International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
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Top Plays
Kevin Harvick – Be hard pressed not to have Harvick in your lineup here. He was clearly the class of the field in race one, and now he gets the benefit of a 20th place starting spot. I expect he rolls to the front really easily, and will likely dominate this race. He had 33 fast laps, and a lot of them came towards the end of the race. That doesn’t bode well for the rest of the field.
Ryan Blaney – Blaney led some laps on Saturday, but proved to be about a 3-4th place car. Should be more of the same same today. I am hopeful his teammate Keselowski steals a little exposure off Blaney and we get a steal with Blaney at $9900. Blaney is an adjustment or two away from hanging with Harvick, and should find some lead laps regardless.
Martin Truex Jr – I think MTJ would have been more of a factor today if it wasn’t for a flat tire during the opening laps I think he would have stayed in the top 5 all day. Here he starts 18th and well he is priced a little high for my liking, I think he should be solid in the top three for most of the day, and if Harv stumbles – MTJ will capitalize.
Kyle Busch – Lets go back to the well with KB here, he will start 16th at just $9400 – thats just to juicy to pass up. Busch said he felt he had a top three car, and he will only get better the more laps he turns. I dont think he will dominate, but I suspect Busch will be inside the top 5 all day again.
Fades
I think the following are bottom tier plays are this week
Quin Houff
Brennan Poole
Joey Gase
Garrett Smithley
Timmy Hill
Reed Sorenson
JJ Yeley
J. Bilicki
J. Davison
Value Plays
Cole Custer – Custer was running well on Saturday before backing it into the wall. As such, he will start 34th @ $7500. Remember, this is the same equipment that Harvick rolls in and Custer is more than capable of piloting to the top 15. Thats all we need for him to go optimal.
John Hunter Nemechek – JHN blew a tire mid way through thew race…then blew like three more. Unfortunate for those who played him yesterday – but a gift to those who will play him today. He will start 36th @ $6400. Before he found trouble, JHN was running solidly inside the top and he should be able to repeat the effort today…lets just keep all the tires on it.
Austin Dillon – If your a longtime reader of mine, you know I like to be contrarian…but you have to play the slate infront of you…and the circumstances have me comfortable eating chalk. AD is another example of that. He got tangled up with Newman late in the race, but was running well prior. He will roll off 31st @ $6500 here, and should be in the top 20 fairly quickly. If they dial the car in I expect he can run top 15 or even top 10. Very comfortable play AD here.
Ricky Stenhouse JR- RSJ was a heart breaker on Saturday. He was running inside the top 12 on the last restart and had a tire go down and subsequently tumbled down to 32nd where he will start today. He is priced at $7300, which is a bit much but he proved he can run well and I am hopeful he will repeat the performance.
Other Notables
Brad Keselowski – Starting 19th, Brad K. is obviously going to be a solid play. The reason he is down here and not up there is I THINK he will go a bit overowned and we can get a little leverage with the Blaney play. I may be way off base here though. Keselowski was running some fast laps towards the end of the race and could surprise the slate and grab that elusive Michigan win.
I need to take a closer look at the loop data, but I think Bowman, Newman and McDowell could be live too. Will update if thing change!
So there you have it. Make sure you check out the Cheat Sheet as well! Good luck and stay cashing.