Hello again Army! It’s round 2 for Michigan today, and what a breath of fresh air, the starting grid is finally scrambled. This opens up a lot of possibilities, so let’s get to the good stuff, shall we?
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Michigan International Speedway
Same track, but a little bit different approach today thanks to how the field is set. I would go with one dominator in all formats on both sites (and by that I mean those starting in the top-10 or so). What about those starting a little deeper? Well…
Return of the hybrids
At last, we finally have a group of hybrids to use! If you don’t remember (I know, it’s been a while), a hybrid is a dominator/stud hybrid, which means they can pay off/be in the winning line with or without dominating. In other words, Harvick for example, starts 20th. He could score 65+ DKFP without leading a single lap today, or he could do what he did yesterday and post up 100. He’s in the winning lineup in either scenario, so it really didn’t matter that he led laps.
Another benefit is since it doesn’t matter if he leads them or not, it doesn’t matter who you pair him with. You can stack a bunch of hybrids and as long as they can all finish very strongly, they could be in the winning lineup together without hoarding a bunch of lead laps. That also means that we don’t have to depend on finding the right dominator(s) in cash games today. Aren’t they great?!
Aug 8, 2020; Brooklyn, Michigan, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) celebrates in victory lane after winning the FireKeepers Casino 400 race at Michigan International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
The Field
Hybrids
We have a bunch of them here – Harvick, Truex/Blaney, Kyle Busch, Keselowski, Hamlin, Logano, and Elliott. I like them roughly in that order.
Honestly, all of them are very strong plays and it’s likely that we see two, maybe three of them in the winning lineup on both sites. I would just cram all of them into your lineups (the dominator stacking feature on the Domination Station would be a great way to do just that), because we’re likely to see nearly all of them finish in the top-10 and top-5 today. The lead laps will probably go to mostly just these drivers, but like I mentioned before, it won’t really matter in the grand scheme of things today.
For cash games, start with Harvick. From there, if you’re doing basic games, I would eat the chalk and go with Blaney. If you’re doing a ladder, swap Blaney out for Truex, Keselowski, or Kyle Busch (me personally, I’m using Harvick/Truex for my ladder today).
For GPP, I love going with Truex, Kyle Busch, and Keselowski. I went into more details in the notes, but these are the three I’m really interested to be in the winning lineup today. I love mixed and matched together or paired with Harvick or Blaney. Either way, you can’t go wrong with any of these drivers.
I like Hamlin/Logano/Elliott the least here, but they’re still well above most drivers in the field today. It’s no shame to be at the lower end of the list of hybrids – it’s like being the worst kid on the All-Star team. You’re still an All-Star!
Dominators
There’s not much to love here today. Bowyer and Byron will start up front, and while it’s likely they will lead up to the competition caution, I don’t love their chances of doing much after that. The problem is that I don’t have much confidence in them holding off all the top-end firepower that will be moving up, and even if they can for a while, they’ll still have to fight really hard for a top-5 to make it all worth it. GPP only here! I would probably only take them in large GPPs where you’re trying to win a house.
Kurt could be used as a pivot to them, but I think he’s better served as a stud on FanDuel instead of a dominator on DraftKings.
Studs / value studs
The studs aren’t anything to write home about this time, but we do at least have some pivots to consider. I like Kurt the most here, and he could be used on either site, though he’s probably stronger on FanDuel. Jones is also a good option there. Elliott could be looked at as an option there too, though he could still be looked at as a hybrid on DraftKings.
Well, I suppose Bowman could be a strong play, if he can get it together and finish in the top-10 like he should be able to do. If he does, he could actually outscore some of the hybrids today, so definitely have exposure here. If I had more confidence in him I would have given him all the stars, because on paper he’s in a great spot to be in the winning lineup over the more expensive drivers. I just can’t get behind him 100% since he’s not finishing where he should be. Very strong GPP pivot.
The value studs, however, do bring some excitement. Austin and Custer are the main targets here and are cash game staples.
And of course, good ol’ Stenhouse starts 32nd again today, and even though he’s priced up a little, he’s still in play. I would lean GPP here due to how unpredictable he can be, but I’m not against using him in a cash ladder since you’d want his upside (it’s the same as Custer/Austin, but his floor/price isn’t nearly as attractive for basic cash games).
Newman is in play too, starting 28th. He can normally be looked at as a safer version of Stenhouse, but we just haven’t seen him return to form yet. Still, it could happen at any race, and if he gets than top-15 we know he can, he could be in the winning lineup over any of these other value studs. Be sure you’ve got at least some exposure to him in GPP.
Value / punts
Nemechek isn’t too far behind the value studs, and he’s also a cash game staple in his price range. I’d say his upside is a tick below theirs, hence him being in this category instead. Still, he’s a great play in all formats.
For GPP pivots, I like McDowell the most, and Ty is right there with him. Both of them have been driving above their pay grades as of late, though yesterday’s race didn’t turn out quite as well as it could have. Still, that should keep their ownership down, especially with the other (“better”) options, so be sure you’re using them in GPP. I don’t know how likely they are to hit, but their upside – on paper at least – is right up there with Nemechek.
LaJoie, Suarez, and Preece round out the other pivots here, but I just don’t love them like I wish I could. With some help, they could finish above where they normally should, so definitely play them in case we see some chaos. I doubt any of them will carry much ownership today, so every low-owned pivot could help.
Quick recap
Hybrids (as many as you can take)
- Harvick, Truex/Blaney, Kyle Busch, Keselowski, Hamlin, Logano, Elliott
- Pivots – all of the above, get at least two of them into each and every lineup
Dominators (1 at the absolute most, but don’t feel like you HAVE to take them)
- Primary – Bowyer/Byron, Kurt
Studs
- Bowman, Kurt/Elliott (FD)
- Pivots – Jones/Johnson (FD)
Value studs
- Austin/Custer, Stenhouse
- Pivots – Newman
Value drivers
- Nemechek, McDowell
- Pivots – Ty, LaJoie, Suarez, Preece
Punts
- I’d rather pay up to the value drivers here
Closing thoughts
It’s the same…but different! We don’t get a slate full of hybrids very often, so take advantage of that. If nothing else, they offer an incredible floor for GPP, so even if you’re more of a cash game player, simply cramming in those specific drivers will probably at least net you a “break even” if nothing else, and if you get the right pivots with them, you might just take down that GPP you never thought you could. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!