NASCAR Calming the Chaos 8/29/20 – Daytona

Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos!  We head into the final regular season race, and what better to cap off the season than with a wildcard race?  Well, I’m sure we’re more excited about it than a lot of the drivers are, but hey, we didn’t make the schedule!  Anyway, let’s dive in to this race and see what we can do with it for DFS.

As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet.  If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.

Daytona International Speedway

Back to Daytona

We’re back at Daytona, but it’s not the road course this time.  It’s a good ol’ fashioned nose-to-bumper race, the kind where danger lurks around every turn for 160 laps.  Speaking of which, as we don’t have many laps again this week, we won’t need to go heavy on the dominators, either.  One would be fine for all formats on both sites, with two being the absolute most I would use.  Other than that, you know the drill…hammer that place differential and finishing position, and hope for some chaos!  At least, that’s the usual way to play these races.  If that’s your plan, then you already know what to do.

However, I think there should be some consideration to use a different approach this time around.  I have an aching suspicion that we may see a bit calmer of a race than expected, for a few reasons.  For starters, as we saw at Talladega, there’s a decent chance the drivers may still be a little gun-shy here, with what happened to Newman earlier this year.  Also, seeing as it is the final race of the regular season, I would imagine that most (all?) of the teams that are already locked in are probably thinking more about Darlington than they are Daytona, since this race won’t mean a whole lot to them.

For those on the outside looking in, there are three spots available to grab on points.  Bowyer, DiBenedetto, Byron, and Johnson are all fairly close to one another, and Jones is about 40 points behind them (which means he needs some of those guys to have a bad day).  All in all, that puts nearly half the field in a position to where they just need a decent finish, and a few of them are in a “must finish” position, which means I don’t think any of these drivers will be making any bold moves to try and win this thing.

Then you have to consider the whole financial aspect of this race and how 2020 has been.  Some of the drivers that would normally just lay it all out and risk it all for the win, may be instructed NOT to do that in favor of preserving their cars.  It’s speculation, but very possible considering the circumstances.

So all in all, while I do think it’s always worth approaching this race in the traditional sense (aka loading up on the back-end drivers and hoping they survive the chaos), I have a strong feeling we’ll see a repeat of Talladega and won’t see nearly as much chaos as we may otherwise expect.  Unfortunately there’s no way to know for sure, and we won’t know which method was the right one until after the fact, but I think it’s worth considering an alternate approach this time around.

The Field

Hybrids

There’s just one this week, Elliott.  He’s priced up on both sites, but for good reason.  Starting 27th is great, we know he can work his way up front to lead some laps, and even though he’s never finished better than 14th here (not counting the road course), if this thing goes calm, I think he will grab his first top-10, perhaps top-5 finish.  Anyway, great play, and if you’re playing cash, don’t be afraid to pay up here.

You could probably just go ahead and list Stenhouse here, too.

Dominators

Even if it goes calm, I don’t think most of the front-runners will be very valuable, but they can still be used for GPP purposes.  I wouldn’t go crazy on any of them, as they will need to lead a significant number of laps, and there are generally a lot of lead changes at these races.

Harvick has the pole and would be a favorite to lead early, but if his line gets a bad start, it would be Truex, Logano, or Keselowski to grab the early lead instead.  I would probably rank them Keselowski/Logano first (remember that the Penske guys are very, very strong here) and Truex second.

To go with the Penske guys, Blaney is also a strong option here.  I fully expect to see Keselowski/Logano/Blaney in the top-5 or so most of the race.  I’m not sure stacking them will be the answer on DraftKings, but I don’t mind pairing two of them on FanDuel.

After that, it’s a crap shoot of Almirola, Byron, Johnson, and Bowman.  They aren’t exactly strong plays by any means, so don’t feel obligated to roll them out.  They are low-owned GPP pivots for large field tournaments only.

Studs / value studs

Gaughan is generally called in to run these type of races, and we’ll see him again this weekend.  He’ll start 40th, giving him a gigantic ceiling should things get a little dicey and he’s able to grab another top-10 finish.  Even if that doesn’t happen, I think he can drive his way to a respectable finish, which puts him in play no matter how you play (chaotic build or safer build alike).  He’s bound to be chalky, so if you are playing cash, you can start here.

Stenhouse (who will start 31st) is right behind him, perhaps ahead of him, since he has the capability to race his way to the lead naturally.  In fact, if this thing stays calm, I would say he’s probably a favorite to win.  His price on FanDuel certainly reflects that, though he’s a bit underpriced on DraftKings considering his upside.  Either way, if you’re playing cash, go ahead and get him too.  For GPP I would probably go really heavy or really light here, rather than trying to match the field.

After that, Bell looks decent starting 23rd, but most of the rest of the drivers in this price range are starting close enough (on DraftKings anyway) to the front to be considered a dominator.  For DK, you’ll probably have to just spend up or down from here since there’s not much else to love, but on FanDuel I don’t mind taking some shots at a few drivers here; Bowyer, Newman, Blaney, McDowell, DiBenedetto, and Austin are all worth having exposure to as “pay up to be contrarian” options in this price range.

Value drivers

We can split into two groups here since the prices are so different, so let’s do that.

DraftKings value drivers

McDowell, Wallace, and Ty Dillon are very strong options here, as they’re all pretty good at this Daytona thing and can naturally work their way up to a solid finish, especially if things go calm.  Even if they get dicey, they offer plenty of upside, so they’re good to go no matter how you play.

Chastain offers a ton of upside, but I think he will need help to do it, so he would be worth using for your “chaos lineups” and fading in your “calm lineups.”

After that, there are a few guys to pivot around with – Nemechek, Newman, Reddick, Kenseth, and Buescher.  None of them can get into the playoffs with points, so they would need to win.  That puts them in play since we know they will at least try to put themselves into a position to jump to the lead, and I suspect people will overlook them a little in favor of the punts (hoping for chaos).  For that reason I think they’re useful pivots no matter how you approach the race.

FanDuel value drivers

Most of the faces are the same here, though the prices are a little different.  Gaughan of course is a top option, since he’s a lot cheaper here than on DK.  Aside from him,  I think Ty Dillon is a strong option, followed by Wallace, Suarez/Preece, and then the rest (Newman/Kenseth, Nemechek, and Buescher).

Punts

If you’re building with chaos in mind, these drivers are your main targets.  In no particular order, you’re looking at Gase, Bilicki, Davison, Yeley, Hill, Poole, and Houf.  They’re cheap, and if we see a big crash, they could see a top-25, top-20, or perhaps even a top-15 finish.  If you’re building for chaos, load up on these guys.  If you’re building safer, either fade them or go a lot lighter on them, and pay up to other options instead.

Quick recap

Hybrids

• Elliott, Stenhouse

Dominators (1 is fine for both sites, 2 at the absolute most and I don’t recommend doing that very much…GPP only)

• Primary – Harvick, Keselowski, Logano, Truex, Blaney
• Pivots – Almirola, Byron, Johnson, and Bowman (I would probably focus more on the five listed above instead)

Studs

• Both sites – Gaughan/Stenhouse, Bell, Blaney
• FanDuel Pivots – Bowyer, McDowell, DiBenedetto, Austin

Value drivers 

• DraftKings – McDowell/Wallace/Ty Dillon
• DraftKings pivots – Nemechek, Newman, Reddick, Kenseth, Buescher
• FanDuel – Gaughan, Ty Dillon, Wallace, Suarez/Preece
• FanDuel pivots – Newman/Kenseth, Nemechek, Buescher

Punts (if building for chaos, load up on these guys…if building for safety, go light or fade…remember that there is no particular order here, it’s luck of the draw if they survive any wrecks and finish in the top-15 or so)

• Gase/Billicki/Davison/Yeley/Hill/Poole/Houf
• Pivots – Preece, Suarez, LaJoie, and any other bottom-dollar driver (that’s starting deep in the field) that I may have overlooked

Closing thoughts

Daytona is always a mental game for the drivers and DFS players alike, and this week is no different.  Usually I would be calling for chaos and telling people to cram in all the punts you want, but I just can’t shake that feeling that we’ll see something different this time.  Don’t be afraid to play a little more “safely” and less “chaotically” this time around, which could mean you only leave a couple thousand on the table instead of trying to leave 5 digit’s worth.  Don’t forget about the Penske dominance here either.  Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!