Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides, that said, we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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I also want to give out a shoutout to all the winners we had right before the NBA season paused! DFSArmy took home a $200k, $25k, $20k, $10k, a SuperDraft $4k winner, and Kevin even took down the mini-max. Keep following your process and taking advantage of the tools that are here to make you successful, hell of a night fellas!
Full Court Press Breakdown for NBA DFS:
Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets
We don’t have a game total or a spread for this game yet, that I’m seeing at least. We’re still waiting on the availability of Jamaal Murray who is questionable here. We may as well get started with the Nuggets and break this news down a bit. The Nuggets will already be without Gary Harris and Will Barton so if Murray was added to this list as well they’d have some minutes to make up in that backcourt. When you take these three off the court we don’t see a huge bump in usage to really anyone other than Paul Millsap, but that’s too small of a sample size to matter. I would expect Monte Morris to do the heavy lifting here, with those three off the court this season he has a 26.4% usage rate and just over a fantasy point per minute; while Nikola Jokic may run more of the offense through the paint than he already does. Jokic struggled in this spot earlier this year going for just 25.3 DraftKings points in 22 minutes while racking up four fouls. This won’t be an easy matchup for anyone on the Nuggets as the Heat are very strong defensively. From the Heat, this is a tough spot for Bam Adebayo who will have to bang down low with Jokic. Adebayo also struggled in this matchup going for just 27.8 DraftKings points. He’s priced about right so more of a GPP option for me than anything. Jimmy Butler will likely be the guy I want from the Heat, he’s not too overly expensive and I expect him to try and carry this Heat team who people think have a chance to give the Bucks a run for the Eastern Conference. Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn are fine options but neither are guys that I’m prioritizing here. The same thing can be said for Goran Dragic although I would much prefer those first two guys to Dragic here. Lastly, you can always take a flyer on Jae Crowder just in case he has one of those games where he gets hot from three and knocks down five or six.
5-star play: Monte Morris (If Murray is out)
4-star play: Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap, Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler
Deeper Value: Michael Porter Jr.
GPP Sleeper: Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Jae Crowder
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Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 217.0
Vegas Spread: Okc -2.0
Starting with the Utah Jazz, Jordan Clarkson was chalk on opening night and was in my Core 4 article due to Bojan Bogdanovic being out, and he did not disappoint. He dropped 37.25 DraftKings points in that matchup… and his price went down $300 on DraftKings. I would expect him to be popular again tonight, as he was still able to get to that 37 point number while shooting 1-8 from three. In fact, all of these Jazz players saw a price decrease on DraftKings with Rudy Gobert at $7k and Donovan Mitchell at $6.9k. It’s though to not like these prices regardless of the matchup. Royce O’Neale played well on Thursday as well, he’s going to get the minutes with Bojan out and makes sense as a secondary option. Lastly, Mike Conley and Joe Ingles are solid options as well, but we need more out of Ingles than we saw on opening night. From the Thunder, DraftKings has Chris Paul listed as out here, but I haven’t seen anything that says he won’t play. He sat out their last scrimmage game to rest for the start of the season, so I’m going to assume he plays here and if DraftKings still has that out tag on him, we may be able to get him at minimal ownership. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder are similar to me, although I would lean Gilgeous-Alexander for cash and Schroder for GPPs. Lastly, Danilo Gallinari and Steven Adams are both fine plays, it’s just a tough matchup for this team all around the Jazz play great defense.
5-star play: Jordan Clarkson, Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert
4-star play: Chris Paul, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, Mike Conley, Royce O’Neale
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams
New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 229
Vegas Spread: Lac -5.0
Starting with the Pelicans, Zion Williamson was having his minutes monitored last game and I would expect the same here in this game. I just won’t be playing him at this price, he doesn’t have the ceiling with a minutes limit to get where you want in a GPP. The rest of this lineup is priced about right to me, JJ Redick makes sense as a salary saver at sub $4k after having a big night on opening night, while guys like Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday, and Brandon Ingram feel priced about right, Ingram may even be a little expensive. From the Clippers, both Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell will be out for this game which hurts their depth a decent amount. Of all relevant players, JaMychal Green actually sees the biggest usage increase at +5.6%, but he’s not exactly a guy that I’ll have a whole lot of interest in although he did get 29 minutes against the Lakers, you could make a case to use him for some value. It will just mean more shots and minutes for the big guys in Paul George and Kawhi Leonard and the secondary guys such as Patrick Beverley, Marcus Morris, and Reggie Jackson. Beverley is really cheap but doesn’t have a great And1 rating and not quite sure he kills you if you fade him and he has a ceiling game. I would prefer Reggie Jackson between the two, Jackson is just more of a scoring threat that Pat Bev is. Pretty much the only guys on this team that I’m targeting right now are Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Reggie Jackson with a sprinkle of JaMychal Green.
5-star play: Paul George, Kawhi Leonard
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram, JJ Redick, Lonzo Ball, Reggie Jackson
Deeper Value: JJ Redick, Josh Hart, JaMychal Green
GPP Sleeper: JJ Redick, Josh Hart, Marcus Morris
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Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 217.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -5.5
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid is priced right where he should be here although I don’t know what kind of shape he’s in, he strikes me as a guy who got himself out of basketball shape during the quarantine. However, that’s just reckless speculation on my end. He dropped 60.8 DraftKings points on the Pacers earlier this season and is a nice play here. Apparently Ben Simmons can shoot now? According to Twitter at least, but I’ll believe that when I see it. He’s averaging 45.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Pacers this season, he’s a solid play as well. It’ll be interesting how the Sixers find a way to use Al Horford who has been largely a disappointment this season. I’ll likely fade him at this price and take a wait-and-see approach. I do however like the price on Tobias Harris and will get to him a decent amount, that price tag should have no issue getting over 5x on this slate. Lastly, Shake Milton and Josh Richardson are fine secondary GPP options but nothing I’m going crazy about. From the Pacers, both Malcolm Brogdon and Victor Oladipo are questionable here if they’re both out we could get a steady dose of Aaron Holiday and TJ McConnell who would both be great value options. TJ Warren and Myles Turner would take over the offense and be great options at their respective price tags as well, keep an eye out for Indiana news this morning.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris
4-star play: Ben Simmons, Shake Milton, Myles Turner, TJ Warren
Deeper Value: TJ McConnell, Aaron Holiday
GPP Sleeper: Josh Richardson, Al Horford
Los Angeles Lakers @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 218.5
Vegas Spread: Lal -3.5
Starting with the Lakers, Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and Kyle Kuzma are all probable here so we shouldn’t need to sweat out Lakers news prior to lock which is a wonderful feeling. Both James and Davis are elite plays again here even with the stellar defense that the Raptors play. The Lakers will be without Avery Bradley for the rest of the season as he as decided to sit out due to Coronavirus concerns. He was playing 24.2 minutes per game this season and played 27.6 minutes per game over their last ten games. He was a key part of their rotation and will open up minutes for the ancillary pieces. Danny Green killed me on opening night, but he does grade out as a nice punt play in that same price range as JJ Redick and Josh Hart, of the three I would prefer Redick as he’ll have a bigger role on this team. The rest of this team is pretty much just deeper GPP plays due to the usage that LeBron and Davis command. From the Raptors, Pascal Siakam scored 52.3 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and I think he’s too cheap here, I like him a good amount on this slate. Kyle Lowry was playing some insane minutes before the season shut down, it will be interesting to see how many he gets here but I would assume he’s a full go and may see him around 35 minutes as usual. Serge Ibaka and Fred VanVleet make sense as secondary options and nice GPP options as they can both get hot from three in a hurry but can also hurt you every now and then. Lastly, Marc Gasol is interesting, if the Lakers go big at all (which they are) he’ll need to get some run. He wasn’t playing heavy minutes before the break but he’s had some time to work with the team in Orlando, you may see him around 20-25 minutes here.
5-star play: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma, Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, Fred VanVleet
Deeper Value: Danny Green
GPP Sleeper: Marc Gasol, Kyle Kuzma, Serge Ibaka, Fred VanVleet
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As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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