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(FREE!) DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Pitching Advice, and Stack Strategy for FanDuel and Draftkings – August 9th, 2020

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!

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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the two pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.

  • Jacob deGrom – I shouldn’t have to say much about deGrom.  He is the reigning two-time Cy Young award winner and takes on what is probably the worst lineup in all of baseball.  I understand that MIA can surprise some at times and a few guys have actually been pretty good against deGrom but this dude is just a beast and when pitching at home, I expect him to be focused here.
  • Sonny Gray – The Brewers bats are striking out at a 30% rate on the season so far.  That % jumps to over 32% when they are facing an RHP.  Gray is the underdog here so it’s tough to pay his price point on DK but his floor is just extremely high.  At this point, I might try to stack him and Woodruff together in lineups because of the upside that combo offers in this game.
  • Brandon Woodruff – Speaking of Woodruff, the current Reds roster has nearly a 36% K rate against him through 42 PAs.  Cincinnati is striking out at a 26% rate over their last 7 games and Woodruff is actually the favorite here.  There is a chance we see double-digit Ks from both starters with the upsides they offer.

 

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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:

Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers:

Orioles – Asher Wojciechowski

Nationals – Stephen Strasburg

Rundown:

This game does not have a total or line yet.  Strasburg will be making his 2020 debut after being pushed back with a nerve issue.  I have not seen what kind of a pitch total we can expect here but I assume they aren’t just throwing him out there to throw 2-3 innings.  The return of Soto should help this offense quite a bit and he did go deep on Saturday.

BAL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: NONE

GPP Note: No interest in BAL bats here.

WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto

4-star plays: Kurt Suzuki

GPP Note: Soto and Suzuki have hit 3 HRs in 8 ABs against Asher.

 

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New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays (-112)

Starting Pitchers:

Yankees – James Paxton

Rays – Charlie Morton

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs.  Paxton has looked really bad to start the season as he has allowed 8 runs on 12 hits in just 4 innings of work.  I know that TB hasn’t exactly been clicking at the plate but this match-up is one that could start their fire a bit.  Morton started the season rather roughly but has been strong in his last two starts.  He has 12 Ks in 10.2 innings while allowing just 3 runs.

NYY 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner

GPP Note: Losing Stanton to injury is going to cause some issues but the Yankees have some depth but it does shrink their lineup a bit as guys like Sanchez and Torres are ice-cold at the plate.

TB 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays:  Yandy Diaz, Hunter Renfroe, Jose Martinez

GPP Note: Tampa Bay has scored just 24 runs over their last 9 games.

  


Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies – Game 1

Starting Pitchers:

Braves – Huascar Ynoa

Phillies – Vince Velasquez

Rundown:  *****THIS GAME IS 7 INNINGS, THAT’S GOING TO AFFECT THINGS FROM A DFS PERSPECTIVE*****

This game does not have a line or total posted yet.   Velasquez was lit up by the Marlins, of all teams, in his season debut.  He managed 3 innings over his 60 pitches so we probably see him approach 80 in this start.  Ynoa will be making his first MLB start in this one.  He had an ERA over 5 and a WHIP of nearly 1.60 at the AAA level in 2019. This game could lead to some offensive fireworks.

 

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.

4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte

GPP Note: Braves players have a combined .312 average against Velasquez across 173 PAs.

PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto

4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Jay Bruce

GPP Note: Just 31 Ks over their last 5 games

 

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies – Game 2

Starting Pitchers:

Braves – Max Fried

Phillies – Spencer Howard

Rundown:  *****THIS GAME IS 7 INNINGS, THAT’S GOING TO AFFECT THINGS FROM A DFS PERSPECTIVE*****

Waiting on an SP update from the Braves.  I am very interested in this game as I like the future upside of Spencer Howard as I have him in a dynasty league.  Will be interesting to see what kind of lineup we get for game 2 of the double-header.  He could face a watered-down version of the Braves lineup. **UPDATE** Fried has been listed as the SP for ATL.  I thought he would throw the first game.  With that said, he allowed 8 HRs against PHI last season, with 6 of those coming at Philly.

 

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.

4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

GPP Note: Pay attention to game 2 lineups.

PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto

4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Scott Kingery

GPP Note: Pay attention to game 2 lineups, especially with a guy like Realmuto.

 

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Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-105)

Starting Pitchers:

Tigers – Spencer Turnbull

Pirates – Steven Brault

Rundown:

Right now I am waiting on verification of the PIT starter because I see Brault listed and he just threw 32 pitches on Friday and didn’t record an out.  I would be shocked to see him start this game out but I guess PIT could be a bit thin.  Right now the game has a total set at 8.5 with the Pirates as a favorite but I just want to get confirmation.  Below plays will be based on Brault (LHP) starting the game unless I state that it’s updated.

DET 5-star plays: Miguel Cabrera

4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, JaCoby Jones

GPP Note: Scored 17 runs on Friday and then 11 more on Saturday.  They have 14 extra-base hits through the first 2 games.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Josh Bell

GPP Note: I should have some interest in PIT but the lineup just doesn’t look inviting to me.


Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (-270)

Starting Pitchers:

Marlins – Pablo Lopez

Mets – Jacob deGrom

Rundown:

The Mets and deGrom are huge favorites and the game has a total set at 7.5 runs.  A couple of the Mets bats broke out a bit on Saturday so they may carry ownership today.  deGrom has struggled some against a few of the Marlins but there is no way I am ever betting against him in this type of a match-up.  He is a massive favorite and MIA should end up with the lowest implied total on the slate.

MIA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Brian Anderson

GPP Note: There are a couple of MIA bats that have had some success against deGrom but I can’t go there.

NYM 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil

GPP Note: The Mets have scored 35 runs over their last 9 games

 

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox (-154)

Starting Pitchers:

Blue Jays – Matt Shoemaker

Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs with BOS being a larger favorite than I would have anticipated.  Both of these teams have really let me down so far this season.  I am going to stop falling for them at some point but that point is not today.  We have to have short term memory in DFS because teams like these can explode at any point.

TOR 5-star plays:  Bo Bichette

4-star plays:  Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

GPP Note: Just 15 runs scored over their last 6 games.

BOS 5-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Mitch Moreland

4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers

GPP Note: This team is just underperforming.  The big team total is inviting, yet again


Minnesota Twins (-166) @ Kansas City Royals

Starting Pitchers:

Twins – Jose Berrios

Royals – Brady Singer

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs.  Singer is an impressive young arm but he has allowed 4 HRs in 15 innings so far at the MLB level.  This will be his first start in Kansas City.  He has struggled a bit with LHBs so far but has struck out 11 of the 29 RHBs he has faced.  His HR breakdown is 2 per side of the plate.  Over the last 2 seasons, Berrios has made 8 starts against KC and has picked up 49 Ks in 52 innings and has allowed 18 runs.

MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler

4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Marwin Gonzalez

GPP Note: Looking to stack the LHBs against Singer.

KC 5-star plays: Ryan O’Hearn

4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield

GPP Note: O’Hearn is 6 for 13 with 2 HRs and 2 2Bs against Berrios


 

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Cleveland Indians (-130) @ Chicago White Sox

Starting Pitchers:

Indians – Shane Bieber

White Sox – Lucas Giolito

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of just 7.5 runs.  This Sunday night game is going to be a blast to watch from a pitching standpoint.  Bieber has been absolutely filthy so far this season as he has 35 Ks in 21.2 innings and opponents are hitting just .160 against him.  Giolito was knocked around in his first start of the season but has 15 Ks in his last two starts, spanning 12 innings.  He has allowed just 2 runs in the last two starts.

CLE 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

GPP Note: CLE has scored more than 5 runs just 3 times this season.

CWS 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu

GPP Note: Have scored 35 runs over the last 8 games.


Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (-124)

Starting Pitchers:

Reds – Sonny Gray

Brewers – Brandon Woodruff

Rundown:

This game opened with a run total of just 7.5 runs.  This is another game that is going to feature a really great pitching match-up (on paper).  Woodruff is one of my favorites to use as I just love the upside and he seems to just not get the DFS respect he deserves.  Gray is in a great spot because the Brewers offense looks absolutely atrocious right now.

CIN 5-star plays:  NONE

4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jesse Winker

GPP Note: Votto and Winker are a combined 10 for 16 against Woodruff

MIL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Christian Yelich

GPP Note: Brewers offense has scored 19 runs over the last 6 games.

 


Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals – PPD DUE TO COVID

Starting Pitchers:

Cubs – Jon Lester

Cardinals – Daniel Ponce de Leon

Rundown:

 

CHC 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Javy Baez, Kris Bryant

GPP Note: Ponce de Leon has flashed some reverse splits at the MLB level so far.

STL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt

GPP Note: The Cardinals had a COVID issue


Los Angeles Angels (-130) @ Texas Rangers

Starting Pitchers:

Angels – Andrew Heaney

Rangers – Lance Lynn

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs.  I was shocked to see the Angels as the favorite here as Lance Lynn has been absolutely dominant to start the season.  Lynn has 17 Ks in 12 innings at home and has allowed just 3 hits.  He’s allowed just 1 run with 24 Ks in his 3 starts this season.  He is going to be allowed to throw as many pitches as he’s able as he has been over 100 pitches in each of the 3 starts.  Heaney was able to stretch out to 87 pitches in his last start so he should be allowed to pitch a bit more here.  He gets the better match-up of the two SPs in this game so we have to consider him, I just don’t know that he can match Lynn’s upside.

LAA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Mike Trout

GPP Note: Lynn has held the Angels roster to an OPS of .589 across 91 PAs.

TEX 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Todd Frazier, Isiah Kiner-Falefa

GPP Note: Team has 19 extra-base hits over their last 7 games


Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics (-152)

Starting Pitchers:

Astros – Cristian Javier

Athletics – Jesus Luzardo

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs.  I was excited about the Valdez-Montas match-up on Saturday and now I get a Javier-Luzardo match-up on Sunday?  This is heavenly as a die-hard MLB fan.  These two guys have electric arms and both have an immense upside.  I was shocked to see the A’s as such a large favorite and that this game doesn’t have a total at 7.5 or 8.

HOU 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa

GPP Note: Team ISO of .208 against LHPs this season.

OAK 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Matt Olson, Tony Kemp

GPP Note: Team has 13 HRs over the last 8 days.


Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres (-156)

Starting Pitchers:

Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarner

Padres – Dinelson Lamet

Rundown:

This game opened with a total set at 8 runs.  I am impressed with all the pitching match-ups we have on this Sunday of MLB action.  Going to be interesting to see what stacks end up being the ones to take down GPPs.  MadBum doesn’t look sharp at all.  He has 11 Ks so far this season but he has walked/hit 10 batters.  I think he turns it around as the season goes on but it’s tough watching a guy with his big-time success, struggle.  Lamet has impressive upside and he has 16 Ks in 46 PAs against the ARI roster.

ARI 5-star plays:  NONE

4-star plays: Ketel Marte

GPP Note: Just 53 Ks as a team over their last 8 games.

SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.

4-star plays: NONE

GPP Note: Team ISO of .233 over their last 6 games

 


San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-310)

Starting Pitchers:

Giants – Kevin Gausman

Dodgers – Walker Buehler

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs.  Kershaw and the Dodgers were -300 favorites on Saturday and they ended up losing to the Giants.  Now we get Buehler as a larger favorite, even though he has looked worse than Kershaw on the season.  Man sometimes baseball just doesn’t make sense.  With that said, I do think the Giants match-up better against an LHP than an RHP.  Buehler has given up 4 HRs already this season so that gives me some worries here but the Giants have just 10 HRs in 343 ABs against RHPs so far this season.

SF 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano

GPP Note: 31 extra-base hits over their last 9 games

LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner

4-star plays: Max Muncy, Will Smith

GPP Note: The Dodgers are hitting .377 in 77 ABs against Gausman


Colorado Rockies (-164) @ Seattle Mariners

Starting Pitchers:

Rockies – German Marquez

Mariners – Justus Sheffield

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs.  Marquez is in a great spot as the Mariners just aren’t scoring runs (20 runs over their last 7 games).  Marquez has 23 Ks through is first 19 innings and has allowed just 4 runs on 12 hits.  He is going to be a strong play in this one while his offense is in another solid spot against another LHP.  Sheffield has been smacked around in both of his starts this season.  He is struggling a TON with RHBs while LHBs have basically done nothing against him.

COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon

4-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado

GPP Note: Blackmon is the hottest hitter in baseball right now.  ABSOLUTELY locked in!

SEA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Kyle Lewis

GPP Note: Striking out at over a 26% rate against RHPs.


Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

    1. Boston Red Sox:  I can’t believe I am going back to BOS being a top stack for me.  They continue to underwhelm in great spots this season.  I loved seeing Verdugo in the leadoff spot and at some point, Devers and Martinez are going to get hot.  Moreland is one of my favorite bats on the slate and nearly had him as the Dinger of the Day below.
    2. Detroit Tigers:  The Tigers are going to see Brault again (they mashed him Friday over a 32 pitch sample) as he failed to record an out.  They are mashing the PIT pitching staff (minus Kuhl, who was pulled for Brault).  Just another spot that probably gets overlooked somehow and it shouldn’t.
    3. Phillies/Braves:  I am really torn here.  I LOVE this game for offense and I want to get pieces of it in a lot of places but how important is it to be given 9 innings of at-bats?  This is something new and I am not sure anybody has studied it too well at this point.  If this was a 7 inning game, these would be my top two offenses to stack.  I put them together here as I think mini-stacks are the way to go, rather than full 4 or 5 man stacks (depending on your site preference).

MLB Dinger of the Day – Mookie Betts, LA Dodgers

Mookie loves to face Kevin Gausman.  He is 15 for 37 with 3 HRs, 4 walks, and 3 SBs against him.  Betts is 5 for 10 with 5 extra-base hits over the last 7 days (he missed a couple of games with a finger injury).  I think that the Dodgers are a bit embarrassed about their loss to the Giants at home last night, with Kershaw on the mound.


As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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