Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the two pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Yu Darvish – I just don’t think very highly of the KC offense overall and there are some Ks in the middle of the lineup while the ballpark is great for pitching. Darvish and the Cubs are actually the largest favorites on the slate so that is something we have to take into consideration. Darvish is the most expensive SP on the DK main slate and is the 2nd most expensive on FD’s main slate.
- Mike Clevinger – I think this is the spot where Clevinger wakes up a bit and matches some of the Bieber, Carrasco, and Plesac’s performances this season. Clevinger has just been average so it’s about time he steps it up. He gets to face a CIN team that isn’t doing a ton outside of Castellanos and they just lost Moustakas to another injury.
- Jon Gray – When the line finally gets posted, I expect Gray and the Rockies to be pretty strong favorites. Gray gave up just 8 HRs in 75.1 home innings in 2019 while having an ERA of just 3.46 which was 0.76 lower than his road ERA on the season. I think he really has learned to pitch at Coors and that’s probably helped his career out quite a bit.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians (-117)
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Tejay Antone
Indians – Mike Clevinger
Rundown:
These two teams just played a 2 game series in Cincinnati and now flip to Cleveland for 2. Clevinger is in a pretty strong spot as I expect the line to move up from the -117 at the open. Moustakas left the game tonight with another injury issue so we could see a slightly weakened Reds lineup. This one has a total set at 8 runs, which I find a little low with CLE being just a -117 favorite. Antone is making his first MLB start after making his first appearance last week, in relief of Wade Miley.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: Castellanos stayed hot and hit his 6th HR of the year against Bieber last night.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindo
GPP Note: The CLE offense is in a funk yet. They have to wake up at some point but Vegas doesn’t think it will be this game.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game does not have a line or total yet as I assume Vegas is waiting for official word on which SPs will start which game of the doubleheader. I am a huge fan of Montgomery so he is going to be on my radar for this game but I do understand that PHI has some bats that can do a little bit of damage. Wheeler has upside in his arm and I actually think he lines up better against the Yankees than Nola does.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Phillies are a bit rusty but there’s a lot of power in this lineup from both sides of the plate
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: The Yankees are up to 20 HRs in 9 games so far this season
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Yankees – Undecided
Rundown:
No line or total, just like the first game. We have to see which SPs are going in which game at this point. Nola has an issue with allowing HRs and this is NOT the team you want to have that issue against. The power of the Yankees is going to win people a lot of money throughout this shortened season.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Bryce Harper, Jay Bruce
GPP Note: Without knowing who is on the mound, I want to target the LHBs.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Brett Gardner, Luke Voit
GPP Note: It will be interesting to see what the lineups look like between the two games. The Yankees certainly are the deeper team.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves (-131)
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Braves – Sean Newcomb
Rundown:
The game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. I like the over in this game as Ryu hasn’t been missing bats yet this season and Newcomb just can’t get out of his own way it seems. Both guys are allowing too much contact right now and both teams have some guys that can crush LHPs. Going to be a popular game to target.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Hernandez and Gurriel are swinging solid bats and Gurriel was great against LHPs in 2019
ATL 5-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Austin Riley
GPP Note: The Braves are so hit or miss and it’s frustrating to see as this lineup should consistently do damage. Just wait until Acuna and Albies start clicking.
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago White Sox (-134)
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
The game has a total of 9 which seems high given the game set-up. I actually think Houser is the more dangerous pitcher right now but he takes on the more dangerous offense. Keuchel is steady but isn’t going to wow us but he gets an offense that is completely lost at the plate, especially former MVP Christian Yelich.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: The White Sox are at their best against RHPs
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Just interested in one-offs as the Brewers offense looks broken at the moment.
Minnesota Twins (-181) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Randy Dobnak
Pirates – Trevor Williams
Rundown:
The game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Williams has given up a lot of HRs to RHBs at the MLB level and gives up a lot of extra-base hits and just hits in general to LHBs. That’s a tough recipe against this Twins squad with a bunch of LHBs to go with power from their RHBs. As a Twins fan, I am not sure how Dobnak does it but he just limits contact and now he gets a great match-up on paper. The park is built for pitching more than hitting so it should play to his strengths.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Just don’t think very highly of the Pirates bats
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: The Twins have 15 HRs against RHPs so far this season
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Chicago Cubs (-210) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Yu Darvish
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rundown:
The game has opened with a total of 9.5 runs and the Cubs as fairly large road favorites. Darvish was up to 86 pitches in his most recent start so I would assume he is pretty well stretched out and should be free to see around 100 pitches. Bubic wasn’t terrible in his first start but did allow a big HR in that game against the White Sox. He doesn’t really offer much at all, especially has such a large underdog.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Nico Hoerner
GPP Note: The Cubs aren’t all that great against LHPs but they have plenty of power for our GPP builds
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Ryan McBroom
GPP Note: Not very interested in KC but Darvish does get wild and can give up big innings so I don’t mind a little KC stack around the middle of the lineup.
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Rockies – Jon Gray
Rundown:
Here we go, back to the undecided situation with the Giants SP. On the other side, Jon Gray was actually much better when pitching at home in 2019 than when he was on the road. He gets an offense that isn’t overly dangerous but is swinging it decently. Marquez just shut the Giants down on Tuesday night so we could see Gray do something similar and I am intrigued by the possibility. **UPDATE** Logan Webb is being listed as the SP for the Giants this morning.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano
GPP Note: The above duo have OPS’ over 1.100 so far this season
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Chris Owings, Daniel Murphy, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Story, Blackmon, Owings, and Murphy are a combined 26 for 56 at home so far this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-127) @ San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Ross Stripling
Padres – Garrett Richards
Rundown:
The game has opened with a total set at just 8 runs. That surprises me a little bit at this point as both Stripling and Richards aren’t elite arms by any means at this point. Stripling gave up 7 runs in 9.1 innings against SD last season but he managed to strike out 14 in those innings. Richards was dominant in his first start and then struggled to pitch in Coors. I think he could struggle here with all the power that the Dodgers can throw at him but he has upside as he was somebody that I thought was going to have a great future in the AL.
LAD 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: One of the guys above will hit an HR in this spot but which one? Bellinger seems to be breaking out a bit.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Tatis is really the only guy that really has my interest but Myers has strong BvP in his favor.
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Los Angeles Angels (-147) @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Julio Teheran
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rundown:
Bundy was super chalky the last game against this team and struggled in the first before settling in and finishing respectably. That makes me think he goes lower owned after hurting so many people in this same exact match-up. Gonzales has struggled with the top part of this LAA lineup but he does get to pitch in a large ballpark, while at home. The game has opened with a total set at 9. **UPDATE** Julio Teheran is making his season debut for the Angels here instead of Bundy.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Jo Adell
GPP Note: I think the Angels have a monster game in them during this series. Trout could come back energized before he realizes what newborn’s do to your sleep pattern. Trout did come back energized on Tuesday, hitting an HR in his first AB.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, JP Crawford, Kyle Lewis
GPP Note: The 3 guys above are the only one’s really doing anything for SEA at this point.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-158)
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
The game has opened with a total of 8.5 runs. This is one of those tough spots as I think Yarbrough is a FAR better pitcher than Perez is but I actually prefer the BOS bats over the Rays bats at this point. The Red Sox keep letting me down as I think they are in great spots because they have guys that smash LHPs historically. I fall for the Rays in nearly the same way but with less confidence. I have been riding guys like Diaz, Renfroe, and Martinez against LHPs only to be let down massively.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Christian Vazquez
4-star plays: Kevin Pillar, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: The guys above either have impressive BvP against Yarbrough or just have been killing LHPs.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: The Rays haven’t been hitting LHPs but Perez just isn’t very good.
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals (-200)
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Rick Porcello
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
I don’t think very highly of the Nationals offense overall but Porcello has been so bad and now they are getting Soto back. On the other side, we just can’t target bats against Scherzer unless they have really strong history. The Mets just aren’t clicking at the plate but they do have enough LHBs to make it a little uneasy for Scherzer. I always want shares of Max Scherzer as he has the stuff to K double-digit batters (has 10 and 11 in his first two starts this season).
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Conforto is 10 for 31 with 4 HRs against Scherzer in his career.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Adam Eaton
4-star plays: Howie Kendrick, Starlin Castro
GPP Note: I really think Soto comes out hacking and Porcello isn’t getting anybody out right now.
Miami Marlins @ Baltimore Orioles – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Elieser Hernandez
Orioles – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
Cobb has looked pretty solid so far through 2 starts and now gets to take on a team that has been ravaged by COVID and who also just wasn’t very good prior to that. The Marlins did win Tuesday night’s game by hitting a couple of HRs and getting a shutout out of their pitching staff. I just don’t see a lot of offense in this game so pitching should catch our attention. I am not sure how many pitches that Hernandez is going to throw, making his season debut.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: I have no idea who will be in the lineup at this point for the Marlins
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Really only interested in Orioles bats when they face LHPs.
Miami Marlins @ Baltimore Orioles – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Undecided
Orioles – Asher Wojciechowski
Rundown:
There is a chance that Caleb Smith starts for the Marlins and if that is the case, I want the Orioles as a GPP stack. I am not a fan of Asher much but the Marlins just aren’t a dangerous offense. Will be interesting to see the lines get posted for this double-header as the Marlins are going to act as the “home” team in game 2.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: I have no idea who will be in the lineup at this point for the Marlins
BAL 5-star plays: NA
4-star plays: NA
GPP Note: If we get an LHP as the starter for MIA then we want to look at Nunez, Alberto, and Iglesias (if he’s in the lineup)
Houston Astros (-150) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr
Diamondbacks – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
The game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. McCullers is in a great spot but the total of this game is higher than I would have thought and he has been dealing with some control issues in his return. I love the upside as this Arizona offense is sleepwalking right now. Ray just isn’t fooling many guys right now and allowing more contact than he has in previous years. He’s always had some control and walk issues and that’s not something that is going to treat him well against the Astros.
HOU 5-star plays: George Springer, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: The top of the Astros lineup against LHPs is one of the most dangerous spots in the majors. Springer and Altuve are a combined 10 for 20 with 6 extra-base hits against Ray.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: No upside in this offense right now
Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics (-173)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. Manaea has looked rough to begin the season but should now see a jump to 80+ pitches at this point. He gets a great match-up against a struggling TEX lineup while Gibson took an L in his first TEX start but didn’t allow an earned run. The OAK bats haven’t been scorching themselves but they do have a couple of guys who have showed up more than not so far this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Manaea has struggled so far this season but the thing is, the Rangers offense is struggling hardcore overall.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Olson and Laureano are a combined 10 for 17 with 2 HRs against Gibson
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Colorado Rockies: The Rockies at home are almost always going to find themselves near the top of my stack list. The rumor is that they will be taking on a rookie SP here. Rookies generally don’t fare very well pitching in Coors for the first time. I love seeing that Arenado has started to heat up and when you pair him with Story and Blackmon, you get what might be the most dangerous threesome on this slate!
- Toronto Blue Jayes: I think very highly of this TOR offense and now they get to face an LHP that is just struggling to get outs consistently. Newcomb was a coveted prospect at one point but he just struggles at the MLB level. Bichette and Hernandez are two guys just swinging it well, while Gurriel has great history against LHPs.
- Houston Astros: We know that Ray struggles with control and now he is allowing a lot more contact than we are used to seeing. The top half of this lineup is EXTREMELY dangerous against LHPs and looks like a couple of them are starting to heat up a bit. Looks like bad news for Robbie Ray to me!
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Altuve went deep on Tuesday night and now he faces an SP that he is 6 for 11 with 4 extra-base hits against. I could have easily said Mike Trout because he DOMINATES Marco Gonzales but he seems too obvious. I love the Astros and I think it’s either Springer or Altuve that gets on one and maybe both guys do.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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