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Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Gerrit Cole – Cole hasn’t flashed the massive upside yet this season. He did strike out 10 in his last start but wasn’t able to keep TB off the board and couldn’t complete 5 innings while throwing 107 pitches. Boston just had trouble with Glasnow’s K ability even though they gave him some troubles. I am going to be on the Cole train because a 30+ DK and a 60+ FD performance are coming.
- Sonny Gray – I know we just saw PIT dominate the Reds SP on Thursday night but did you notice how ineffective DeSclafani was? After he came out, the Reds bullpen just shut down the Pirates lineup that was hitting lasers around the park off of DeSclafani. Gray and the Reds are a -194 favorite here as the Pirates should end up with a team total of under 4.
- Framber Valdez – There are actually a number of guys I could have slid into this 3rd spot. Valdez has been dominant since sliding into the rotation for James. He has 17 Ks in 13.1 innings and now faces a Mariners team that can struggle to score runs. The worry is that I think the Mariners are more dangerous against LHPs because of guys like Nola and Moore but Valdez has impressed me a ton. Could have listed guys like Montas, Civale, Chatwood, or even Pablo Lopez.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Tampa Bay Rays (-128) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Trevor Richards
Blue Jays – Tanner Roark
Rundown:
Waiting for official word from the Rays on who the SP will be. I have read some rumors that it could be Trevor Richards. This game isn’t on the main slates. I am interested to see the Vegas info as this could be a higher scoring game. TB just went off against BOS on Thursday so that should make their side pretty popular. ***VEGAS HAS GIVEN THIS GAME A TOTAL SET AT 9.5***
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: 12 HRs over their last 8 games.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Travis Shaw, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Bichette is 11 for 25 with 6 extra-base hits and 3 SBs over his last 6 games.
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Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Undecided
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
There is no Vegas information for this game yet as we wait on the Red Sox to announce their pitching plans. I have seen rumors of an opener with a long-reliever but I want to make sure after the bullpen had to throw a ton of pitches Thursday night.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Martinez
GPP Note: Just don’t want to pick guys against Cole. Martinez is 4 for 12 with an HR and 4 walks against Cole.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Brett Gardner, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 against RHPs in 2020.
New York Mets (-191) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Phillies – Spencer Howard
Rundown:
I am seeing rumors that PHI will start Spencer Howard but we will wait on the official word and the Vegas info. As we get the official word that Howard will start for PHI, we get the Mets and deGrom as -191 favorites in a game with a total set at 8.5 runs. I like the ability that Howard brings to the table but he is going to have to battle for the W here as the PHI offense is in for a tough spot.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: 11 HRs over their last 7 games
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Harper is 10 for 34 with 2 HRs and 7 walks against deGrom.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-194)
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Reds – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Kuhl was electric in his last start against DET but still only threw 58 pitches. He should be pushed beyond that here but he has given up 5 HRs in just 10.2 innings at Cincinnati in his career. He looks like a different pitcher right now, coming back from surgery. This is still a very tough park for him to pitch in and CIN should have one of the higher projected run totals on the slate. Gray is in a spot where the Reds need him to go deep in this game as the bullpen has been pushed recently. The bullpen showed everybody they could shut down PIT after DeSclafani struggled. I am expecting something really strong here from Gray.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Erik Gonzalez
GPP Note: After their hot start (9 runs in 2 innings) against DeSclafani, the bats went ice-cold across the final 7 innings. The picked up just 2 hits and struck out 7 times.
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Freddy Galvis
GPP Note: Winker is 13 for 21 over his last 7 games.
Cleveland Indians (-171) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Aaron Civale
Tigers – Ivan Nova
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. Civale dominated against DET last season as he made 3 starts and threw 20.2 innings against them. He struck out 15, allowing just 3 runs and an average against of just .176. CLE has just 10 HRs in 537 PAs against RHPs so far this season so they definitely aren’t clicking just yet.
CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Striking out at a 25% rate over their last 6 games.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: 11 HRs over their last 6 games.
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Atlanta Braves (-114) @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Kyle Wright
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. I am torn on what to do with this game. Wright just hasn’t been good and he allows too many baserunners and gets in bad counts but the Marlins just aren’t very good overall. Lopez has been really solid and now he gets to face a Braves squad without Acuna and Albies at the top of the order. The more I think about it, the more I like the Marlins side here.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Tyler Flowers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over their last 7 games.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Aguilar and Anderson are a combined 17 for 47 with 15 RBI over the last 6 games.
Washington Nationals (-178) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Stephen Strasburg
Orioles – Tommy Milone
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I normally would be all about Strasburg here but man the Orioles have been rolling over the last week. Strasburg’s first start of the season came against this BAL team and they knocked him around. He gave up 5 runs on 7 hits and a walk while picking up just 2 Ks. Milone dominated WAS in his last start as he went 6 shutout innings, allowing just 3 hits and striking out 3. He has allowed just 1 run over his last 11 innings and has 11 Ks. I expect some regression and the middle of the Nats lineup is going to be tough for him to navigate in this spot.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Starlin Castro, Howie Kendrick
GPP Note: 12 HRs over their last 7 games.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .267 over their last 6 games.
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Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (-159)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Jakob Junis
Twins – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. Odorizzi is making his 2nd start of the season and his 2nd one against KC. He managed to complete just 3 innings in the first start, throwing 71 pitches. Junis has made just 2 starts so far this season, with both being less than 5 innings. He did make a start against MIN and gave up 2 solo HRs in that game.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: The 3 guys above are a combined 17 for 44 with 6 HRs against Odorizzi.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: 15 HRs over their last 7 games
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago White Sox – PPD DUE TO COVID
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
White Sox – Undecided
Rundown:
PPD
STL 5-star plays: M
4-star plays: R
GPP Note: C
CWS 5-star plays: M
4-star plays: D
GPP Note: I
Milwaukee Brewers (-115) @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Cubs – Tyler Chatwood
Rundown:
No Vegas info yet as I assume we are waiting on the wind predictions. Make sure you join us in chat to get the updated weather information. We have updated information this morning as the Brewers open up as favorites here and the game has a total set at 8.5 runs. Both SPs are very intriguing to me and both offer upside. Woodruff has been solid and Chatwood was great to begin the season before stumbling in his most recent start.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Justin Smoak
GPP Note: 81 Ks over their last 8 games.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Cubs hitters are just 13 for 69 with 20 Ks against Woodruff.
Texas Rangers (-121) @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Lance Lynn
Rockies – Ryan Castellani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 12 runs. Castellani looked solid in his MLB debut last time out, allowing 0 hits in 4 innings of work. His minor league track record did not lead me to believe he had that kind of debut in him. Now he makes his Coors field debut, which hasn’t been nice to SPs. The plus thing for him is that he is taking on a TEX squad that lacks power overall. The Rockies hitters love hitting at home and while Lynn has been really strong this season, this is a tough spot. I do think Lynn in GPPs is an interesting thing to consider.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Derek Dietrich
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .107 over their last 7 games.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Daniel Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .229 at home so far this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros (-187)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Valdez has looked excellent since entering the rotation. He is striking guys out and being allowed to throw plenty of pitches as he threw 103 of them in his last start. Kikuchi flashes upside but then he bounces back with rough starts. The Astros got to him for 5 runs in 3.2 innings to start the season. This just lines up great for the Astros bats.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Nola
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over their last 7 games.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: George Springer, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .228 against LHPs in 2020.
San Diego Padres (-131) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Dinelson Lamet
Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I think this game is a sneaky one to target for pitchers on this slate. Both of these guys could be somewhat under-owned. Kelly is really expensive on DK and that will eliminate a ton of his ownership as he threw 6 innings against SD earlier and allowed just a solo HR in that game. Lamet has made 2 starts against ARI and has been electric. Has thrown 11.2 innings in those starts and has 19 strikeouts to go with just 6 hits and 2 runs allowed.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Tatis is 4 for 8 with 3 HRs against Kelly.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team is just 11 for 62 with 27 Ks against Lamet in their careers.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) @ Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I am really excited about this game and it may make me sound like a geek. Being able to watch Kershaw face Trout and even Pujols is just something that we should enjoy while we can. Sandoval has been solid so far this season but he has allowed 2 HRs to RHBs across 23 ABs.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: 36 HRs in their first 20 games.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .233 over the last 7 days.
Oakland Athletics (-178) @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a run total set at 8 runs. Montas is in a GREAT spot here in a huge park and against an overall weak offense. The A’s have 12 HRs and 24 total extra-base hits over their last 7 games. Giants hitters have an ISO of just .130 against RHPs this season but they do have an ISO of .193 at home.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over their last 7 games.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: 60 Ks over their last 7 games. Team ISO of .150 during those 7 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Houston Astros: Kikuchi has thrown 23.2 innings against HOU in his young MLB career and has allowed 5 HRs and 19 runs total. He gave up 36 HRs in 161.2 innings during the 2019 season.
- Oakland Athletics: I just am going to continue to pick on Cueto and the SF pitching staff because I just don’t think they are very good overall. The A’s have 12 HRs and a team ISO of .211 over their last 7 games.
- Cleveland Indians: I could have gone with the Rockies here as they are going to have one of the highest, if not the highest, team totals on the slate. The issue is I think Lynn is too good of an SP to want to target with a lot of my GPP shares. I will go with the Indians and my Dinger of the Day call, Franmil Reyes. The Indians roster has a combined 113 PAs against Nova in their careers. They are 35 for 104 (.337) with just 14 strikeouts and an ISO of .173.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Indians
Reyes is 12 for 22 over his last 6 games. He gets to take on a pitcher who he is just 2 for 5 against, with an HR and a 2B. Nova has allowed 2 HRs so far this season after allowing 30 of them in 2019. A big-time power hitter like Reyes is somebody we want to ride when he gets hot at the plate and a double-dong game is coming very soon.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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