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(FREE!) DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Pitching Advice, and Stack Strategy for FanDuel and Draftkings – August 13th, 2020

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!

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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.

  • Yu Darvish – Darvish has been really strong this season after finishing last season extremely strong.  He has fared very well against the Brewers in his career and the team has the best record in all of baseball at this point.  I expect the Cubs to be the favorite here as we wait on the Vegas information.
  • Tyler Glasnow – This is really all about what I believe Glasnow’s upside is if things go right.  He hasn’t been very sharp yet this season but this Boston team is struggling as they have the 2nd worst winning % in all of baseball.  The match-up is just so intriguing and Glasnow has shown his K ability so far this season.  We just need things to come together for 6 solid innings.
  • Anthony DeSclafani –  DeSclafani probably gets the most inviting SP match-up as the Pirates have been off from playing and they just are not good, at all.  Their leading hitter is Kevin Newman with an average of .250 on the season.  There’s a good chance the Reds end up as the largest favorite on the slate.

 

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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (-125)

Starting Pitchers:

Nationals – Austin Voth

Mets – David Peterson

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs.  I love seeing Voth getting a chance to start at this point.  He was impressive during camp and has continued that into the season.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs on 6 hits across 10 innings so far.  Peterson has been pretty decent so far but I just don’t want to go his route today.  The Nationals have destroyed LHPs so far this season (pretty small sample size) and Juan Soto is rolling at the plate.

WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto

4-star plays: Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera

GPP Note: Team ISO of .314 vs LHPs this season.

NYM 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso

GPP Note: Striking out at a 24.3% rate against RHPs this season.

 

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Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies (-184)

Starting Pitchers:

Orioles – Tom Eshelman

Phillies – Jake Arrieta

Rundown:

This game opened with a total set at 10 runs.  Eshelman allowed 12 HRs in 36 innings at the MLB level in 2019 and has allowed 2 in 7.1 innings so far this season.  We definitely could see some HR fireworks in this game.  Arrieta allowed 2 HRs to the Yankees and then bounced back to shut down the Braves.  He has 10 Ks and just 1 walk allowed in 11 innings so far this season.

BAL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Renato Nunez

GPP Note: Team ISO of .267 over their last 6 games.

PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper

4-star plays: Jay Bruce, Didi Gregorius

GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last 7 days.

  


Tampa Bay Rays (-147) @ Boston Red Sox

Starting Pitchers:

Rays – Tyler Glasnow

Red Sox – Kyle Hart

Rundown:  

This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Hart is making his debut here and gets to do so against a team that is striking out at a 27.4% rate against LHPs so far in 2020.  He’s had solid numbers throughout his minor league career but isn’t considered much of a prospect as he’s 27 years old.  Glasnow’s strikeouts have been there so far this season, he has 19 in 11.1 innings, but his command has been pretty lackluster.  At some point I expect things to click again for him.

TB 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Michael Brosseau, Brandon Lowe, Manuel Margot

GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 over their last 7 days.

BOS 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Mitch Moreland

GPP Note: Crazy stat, JD Martinez has 2 SBs in 6 PAs against Glasnow.

 

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-182)

Starting Pitchers:

Pirates – Trevor Williams

Reds – Anthony DeSclafani

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs.  DeSclafani has given up 6 HRs in 96 PAs to this PIT roster and that surprises me a lot.  Pittsburgh just isn’t a very good team and they aren’t hitting all that well.  They are 1-9 over their last 10 games.  DeSclafani is yet to allow a run on the season as he has thrown 11 innings and allowed just 5 hits to go with 8 Ks.  Williams has actually been pretty respectable, coming off of a very strong start against the dangerous Twins lineup.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds

GPP Note: Team ISO of just .116 over the last 7 days.

CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker

4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Joey Votto

GPP Note: Winker is 11 for 17 over the last 7 days.


Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

Starting Pitchers:

Brewers – Brett Anderson/Corbin Burnes

Cubs – Yu Darvish

Rundown:

This game does not have any Vegas info yet as I would assume they are waiting on the wind possibility plus the official word from the Brewers on their pitching plans.  Right now we are seeing that Anderson will be used as an “opener” with Burnes to follow.  I won’t lie, I just don’t understand why Burnes isn’t just starting the game as he’s FAR better than Anderson is at this point.  Darvish has been strong this season and he’s always been very good against the Brewers.

MIL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Christian Yelich

GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last 7 games.

CHC 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jason Heyward, Javier Baez

GPP Note: Team ISO of just .131 against LHPs this season.

 

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San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-140)

Starting Pitchers:

Padres – Chris Paddack

Dodgers – Julio Urias

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs.  Paddack has beaten the Dodgers once this season already.  I think he’s on his way to becoming a stud at the MLB level.  Urias is a kid that I have been salivating over for years now and hopefully, the Dodgers just let him pitch.  Two starts ago he reached the 90 pitch mark and I thought that was a great sign and then he was only allowed to go 4 innings and throw 78 pitches in his last start.

SD 5-star plays:  Fernando Tatis Jr.

4-star plays:  Manny Machado

GPP Note: 14 HRs over their last 6 games

ARI 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Justin Turner, Mookie Betts

GPP Note: 30 HRs through 19 games this season.


St Louis Cardinals @ Detroit Tigers – Game 1 – PPD DUE TO COVID

Starting Pitchers:

Cardinals –

Tigers –

Rundown:

 

STL 5-star plays:

4-star plays: 

GPP Note: 

DET 5-star plays:

4-star plays: 

GPP Note: 


 

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St Louis Cardinals @ Detroit Tigers – Game 2 – PPD DUE TO COVID

Starting Pitchers:

Cardinals –

Tigers –

Rundown:

 

STL 5-star plays:

4-star plays: 

GPP Note: 

DET 5-star plays:

4-star plays: 

GPP Note: 


Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

    1. Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies look like they will close with the highest IRT on the small slate.  They have scored 26 runs over their last 3 games so the offense hasn’t been an issue for them.  They have a team ISO of .201 over the last 7 days and at home this season.
    2. Cincinnati Reds:  The Reds have hit 21 HRs in their 10 home games so far this season.  They have a team ISO of .232 when in their home ballpark.  Things line up extremely nicely for them here.
    3. Tampa Bay Rays: We don’t know much about Hart and we do know that TB has struggled against LHPs this season, so why am I on the Rays?  Because this slate is really tough to figure out and I also think I have seen some things that are calling for a bit of a breakout from the Rays offense. 

MLB Dinger of the Day – Michael Brosseau, Tampa Bay

Brosseau is 5 for his last 8 with 2 HRs and 2 2Bs.  He doesn’t get to play every day as it basically looks like he is a strict platoon player.  He is 8 for 20 with 3 HRs and 3 2Bs against LHPs so far in 2020. I know that Hart didn’t give up many HRs at the minor league level but this is a different ballgame and now he faces guys that specialize in hitting LHPs at the MLB level.


As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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