Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the two pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Zack Greinke – Part of me has a hard time paying the price for Greinke when I wonder what his upside actually is at this point. The other part of me just loves the idea of picking on weak teams, like the Giants. He should be in line for the victory and do it rather efficiently against the Giants.
- Kenta Maeda – Maybe this is another homer pick from me but I just love the way he’s been pitching for the Twins and the Brewers are striking out at a 30% rate on the season. He’s a road favorite here and I like his Win chances given that the Brewers are throwing an LHP and we know what MIN is capable of against LHPs.
- Zach Eflin – I am really shocked at his price on DK. I know he isn’t a stud SP by any means but the match-up is extremely inviting and he looked very sharp against the Yankees in his first start of 2020. There’s a decent chance that the Phillies close the day as the largest favorite.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Minnesota Twins (-139) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Maeda is in a great spot as the Brewers are striking out at a really healthy rate while a majority of the lineup is struggling. His offense gets to take on an LHP and we know how dangerous the Twins bats can be against LHPs. They are averaging nearly 1.7 HRs/game so far in 2020.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: Twins have hit 29 HRs in 17 games so far this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .663 with a 30% K rate on the season.
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Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Huascar Ynoa
Yankees – Masahiro Tanaka
Rundown:
This game does not have any Vegas information at this point.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Atlanta has struck out 72 times over their last 8 games
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over their last 7 games
Chicago White Sox (-115) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. After a terrible start to the season, Cease has looked pretty solid and is in an intriguing spot here as the Tigers have been at their weakest against RHPs. Detroit is striking out at nearly a 33% rate against RHPs so far in 2020. Boyd hasn’t looked very good to begin the season so there’s no reason for me to think he turns it around in this game.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: CWS batters have 89 Ks over their last 9 games
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs in 2020.
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Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Anibal Sanchez
Mets – Undecided
Rundown:
We will update when the Mets announce an SP and we get Vegas information.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Howie Kendrick
GPP Note: Just 45 Ks over their last 7 games.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JD Davis
GPP Note: Davis has an ISO of .217 against RHPs so far this season.
Tampa Bay Rays (-154) @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Blake Snell
Red Sox – Zack Godley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Godley has traditionally been a guy that we pick on with bats but he hasn’t been terrible to begin his 2020 season. The Rays offense hasn’t exactly been electric either to this point. I want to have interest in Blake Snell here but he has only topped out at 3 innings so far. He should be allowed to throw around 70 pitches but it really limits his upside.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Striking out at a 28% rate over the last 7 games.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Not going to pick on Blake Snell.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (-111) @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Luke Weaver
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 11 runs. We should get some more Coors magic from the offenses here. Weaver has struggled a TON so far this season but somehow is favored in this game. That blows me away as Senzatela has actually been respectable to this point. I want to stack both sides of this game and in my builds that aren’t stacking this game, I will be jamming in Charlie Blackmon. The dude is just absolutely scorching at the plate.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over their last 7 games.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Blackmon is 21 for 34 over the last 9 games.
San Francisco Giants @ Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Trevor Cahill
Astros – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
No Vegas info as we wait for official word on the pitching plans for the Giants.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Solano is 12 for 28 over his last 7 games.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over their last 7 games
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Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (-118)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Taijuan Walker
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I am a little shocked to see the Rangers favored here. Lyles has allowed 16 baserunners in 9.1 innings as an SP so far this season. He actually has more walks than strikeouts in his starts. Walker has had 2 rough starts but then he absolutely dominated OAK. He flashed the arm talent that made him a sought after prospect years ago. I hope the roof stays closed here so we can predict things a little better. If the roof is opened, I think we have to consider some bats.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Lewis, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: 48 strikeouts over their last 7 games.
TEX 5-star plays: Todd Frazier
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Solak
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .121 over the last 7 games.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (-112)
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Angels – Griffin Canning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. The Angels have a really strong BvP history against Bassitt. The group of Trout, Upton, Fletcher, Pujols, La Stella, and Castro are a combined 22 for 53 against Bassitt. Canning is looking for his first win of the season even though he has thrown the ball decently. He struggled with his control in his last start.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Chapman and Olson have combined for 9 HRs over the last 7 games.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: I am going to predict it right here. Albert Pujols ties Willie Mays on the All-Time HR list in this game.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals – PPD DUE TO COVID
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – NA
Cardinals – NA
Rundown:
Series PPD due to St Louis positive tests.
PIT 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
STL 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-172)
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Zach Davies
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. The Padres have taken both games of this series so far. I expect the Dodgers to come out a little focused here and try to get their offense on track. They are definitely hitting HRs but they aren’t doing a ton else. I really like both of these SPs for different reasons. Urias is a high-upside youngster who just needs to be allowed to throw pitches and Davies relies on impressive pitching IQ as he will never overpower a lineup. Both guys have been getting it done but in this match-up, I side with Urias.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: Have hit 15 HRs over their last 6 games.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: 12 HRs over their last 8 games
Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays (-162)
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Jordan Yamamoto
Dodgers – Nate Pearson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. I keep waiting for the TOR bats to wake up but they just haven’t been able to put it all together. Each game they seem to have somebody who does something but it turns into a one-man shot. I really like this SP match-up but I do think that TOR has a chance to get to Yamamoto, who struggled in his season debut against BAL. Pearson is a big RHP with an upside in his arm if he can master some command. He makes mistakes but I am not sure this MIA team can make him pay for some of the mistakes.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs in 2020.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs in 2020.
Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds (-124)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Brad Keller
Reds – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Miley is coming off of an IL stint and now faces a Royals lineup that has turned cold. On the other side, Keller really impressed me in his season debut and now gets a Reds squad that is pretty cold as well. The ballpark is definitely inviting for offenses.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Perez is 13 for 33 with 5 extra-base hits over his last 8 games.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Winker is 10 for 16 over his last 6 games
Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies (-172)
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Wade LeBlanc
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. I really don’t have any interest in the Baltimore side but I am very much interested in the PHI side of this game. There were a lot of offensive fireworks late in Tuesday night’s game and we certainly could see some of that carry over to Wednesday.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 over their last 7 games.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Didi Gregorius
GPP Note: 11 HRs over their last 8 games
Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Indians (-131)
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Indians – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. I like this SP match-up as Carrasco has the K upside against a team that can get swing happy and Hendricks has upside because the Indians are hitting just .209 over their last 6 games. It’s tough to get a read on a team like the Cubs because they had to sit around while they had a series of PPD due to COVID issues.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .068 over their last 3 games.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: 79 Ks over their last 8 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Minnesota Twins: The Twins had a team ISO of .236 against LHPs in 2019. They haven’t gotten off to the greatest start against LHPs in 2020 but I expect to see some positive regression soon. Lauer has given up 35 HRs in 261 innings combined between 2018-19. The Twins just hit 3 HRs on Tuesday.
- Houston Astros: The Giants have a pretty weak bullpen overall and Cahill is making his first “start” of the season. I use quotations because we just don’t know if he will go 2 or 5 innings. Houston has a team ISO of .184 over their last 7 games.
- Philadelphia Phillies: We know that BAL pitching loves to give up HRs (OK, they probably don’t love to actually do it). The Phillies have hit 13 HRs over the last 7 days and have a team ISO of .211 during that span. LeBlanc has given up 4 HRs in 14.1 innings this season.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Mitch Garver, Minnesota Twins
I know, I must be a homer here. Garver has struggled a TON to begin the season but I do know that he had success hitting in Milwaukee last season and he gets to face an LHP. This is really an off-the-wall play but it’s just a fan’s gut feeling. Sometimes we can’t quantify predictions with spreadsheets or models and we just have to rely on intuition. I want to see the guy follow up his impressive 2019 season with a very strong 2020.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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