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NHL DFS At A Glance
These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.
ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
Nashville Predators VS Arizona Coyotes
Nashville Predators: Nashville is looking to even up the series and here and I think they do it, the talent difference between the two teams is starting to look like too much for Arizona to handle, as they are allowing the most shots against out of every team on the slate. Kuemper had to stand on his head for most of the game for Arizona to get that W.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Viktor Arvidsson, Filip Forsberg (GPP)
Cash viable – Viktor Arvidsson, Dean Fabbro
GPP Sleeper – Roman Josi
Arizona Coyotes: Arizona is just not a puck dominant team, they have skated by all year on the back of Raanta and Kuemper. Nashville had them completely pinned down in the first period but Arizona managed to win the game, if the Preds can get the first goal here and not let Arizona carry any momentum I think they win this game.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Vancouver Canucks VS Minnesota Wild
Vancouver Canucks: Just posted a shutout against in which they only allowed 27 SOG. Pettersson and Boeser look good together to me and their value on DK is tremendous for cash games. Minnesota could be down Ryan Suter tomorrow which would be a big hit for a team that plays defensive hockey.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser
Cash viable – Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser
GPP Sleeper – Elias Pettersson
Minnesota Wild: If Suter is out I really like what that does for Matt Dumba as he is cheap and will be locked in to 25 plus minutes. Minnesota looked very flat in game 3 and losing one of their top d men would be a big hit. Vancouver is the better team of the two in my opinion and I can see them closing it out tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Matt Dumba
Cash viable – Matt Dumba
GPP Sleeper – Zach Parise
Toronto Maple Leafs VS Columbus Blue Jackets
Toronto Maple Leafs: Wow Toronto, just wow. How did you guys blow a 3-0 lead? I do not understand this team. They should be coming out throwing the puck on the net tomorrow but I can see them crashing and burning as well. For that reason I am really only looking towards their two best players in John Tavares and Auston Matthews and that is it.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Auston Matthews, John Tavares
Cash viable – Auston Matthews, John Tavares
GPP Sleeper – none
Columbus Blue Jackets: I know they scored 4 goals in game 3 but I think they out here trying to play slow and not let Toronto get into their style of play which is bad for fantasy upside all around.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Edmonton Oilers VS Chicago Blackhawks
Edmonton Oilers: Another team from Canada on the verge of choking. They are going to be heavily relying on McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl this game and that is exactly where I am looking to go.
5 star plays – Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
4 star plays – Connor McDavid
Cash viable – Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
GPP Sleeper – none
Chicago Blackhawks: Despite the high goal totals in this series neither team has had a ton of shots, the goaltending has just been horrendous. The volume from both sides here is coming from their best players and that is where I will continue to grab my exposure from in this series.
5 star plays – Patrick Kane
4 star plays – Jonathan Toews
Cash viable – Patrick Kane, Kirby Dach
GPP Sleeper – Kirby Dach
Mar 5, 2020; Buffalo, New York, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby (87) celebrates his goal with teammates during the third period against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
Pittsburgh Penguins VS Montreal Canadiens
Pittsburgh Penguins: Sidney Crosby has never played an NHL game on his birthday in his career and he never will again. For the readers who do not know about Sid off the ice, this man is so superstitious it is crazy, the stuff he cares about and what he does to get it is a little unorthodox at times but it obviously gets the job done. Point being, Sidney Crosby is not going to have 0 points on his birthday, it just is not going to happen. Pens are on the verge of getting eliminated but on top of Pittsburgh playing better than Montreal despite being down, I think the boys are all going to want to come through for Sid tomorrow.
5 star plays – Sidney Crosby
4 star plays – Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel
Cash viable – Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust
GPP Sleeper – Bryan Rust
Montreal Canadiens: Pittsburgh is going to come out hard tomorrow and I do not think Montreal is going to be able to keep up, luckily that is good for their blocked shots upside which puts Lehkonen at almost min price in play as well as Joel Armia who we have seen smash his value when under 4k before.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Artemi Lehkonen, Jeff Petry
Cash viable – Artemi Lehkonen, Joel Armia
GPP Sleeper – Shea Weber
Tristan Jarry: Was without a doubt the Pens best goaltender this season, which was not hard with Murray being the worst goalie in the league. The Penguins should win this game as they should’ve won all of them honestly. Montreal also takes low quality shots so his saves shouldn’t being creating a ton of rebounds.
Joonas Korpisalo. His price is so low and there are a ton of good studs on this slate. Toronto should be putting pucks on the net all game so his volume upside could honestly be the highest on the slate. He has only allowed 2 goals in his 2 starts against the Leafs this series.