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DFS Army – NHL Breakaway Advice Strategy Picks and Player Pool for FanDuel and DraftKings – August 6th

Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!  You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process.  I am @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter.   But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players.  If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team!  Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.

NHL DFS At A Glance

These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.

ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.

 

Toronto Maple Leafs VS Columbus Blue Jackets

Toronto Maple Leafs: Let us not get things twisted here. Toronto are the better team, the Blue Jackets style of play is just a good counter to them. With Muzzin going down the way he did I can see the boys being fired up here more so than they already were. Good bit of cash consideration from this game.

5 star plays – Auston Matthews

4 star plays – John Tavares

Cash viable – Auston Matthews, Justin Holl, Auston Matthews

GPP Sleeper – Mitch Marner

Columbus Blue Jackets: This team is not one for fantasy production and if the Maple Leafs come out like they did last game the fantasy production from the Jackets is going to be very minimal.

5 star plays – none

4 star plays – none

Cash viable – none

GPP Sleeper – Cam Atkinson

Vancouver Canucks VS Minnesota Wild

Vancouver Canucks: Nothing about Vancouver is appealing to me unless it is in large field GPPs, this game is being played between two hockey teams who are not that good on offense, let us not forget that.

5 star plays – none

4 star plays – none

Cash viable – none

GPP Sleeper – none

Minnesota Wild: Vancouver have not been a good hockey team this series or all season really, so I think Minnesota takes them here, the only issue is that I do not see it being a high fantasy point W, so I am going to stay off of them as well, please stop playing priced up Kevin Fiala in cash games by the way.

5 star plays – none

4 star plays – none

Cash viable – Not Kevin Fiala

GPP Sleeper – none

Mar 9, 2020; Buffalo, New York, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) during a stoppage in play during the third period against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

Washington Capitals VS Philadelphia Flyers

Washington Capitals: If/When Ovechkin hits over 20 minutes of ice time again he will not be scoring only 4.5 fantasy points. My guess is Carlson remains out once again and that is a big hit to the PPs upside, a big one. If Carlson does remain out I do like Orlov again.

5 star plays – Alex Ovechkin

4 star plays – Dmitry Orlov (if Carlson misses)

Cash viable – Alex Ovechkin, Dmitry Orlov

GPP Sleeper – Jakub Vrana

Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia handled Boston easily, they are looking like the team they did before the break, which is dangerous for Washington. Sean Couturier is a great play in cash at $6100 and 20 minutes of ice time. I do think the 6.5 total here should be 6.0 but the offensive upside is still here even with that. 

5 star plays – Sean Couturier

4 star plays – Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek

Cash viable – Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek

GPP Sleeper – Claud Giroux

Calgary Flames VS Winnipeg Jets

Calgary Flames: Winnipeg played deflated last game and are now on the brink of elimination. I am still not a fan of Calgary as a team or in this game as this series has been dwindling in terms of offensive production. Matthew Tkachuk is the only player I like from them today.

5 star plays – none

4 star plays – Matthew Tkachuk

Cash viable – Matthew Tkachuk

GPP Sleeper – none 

Winnipeg Jets: Nothing about Winnipeg looked good against Calgary the last game and I do worry they are deflated after losing two great players and now being down 2-1. The value is here for them though on DK with Jack Roslovic and Blake Wheeler but I do not love it.

5 star plays – none

4 star plays – none

Cash viable – Blake Wheeler, Jack Roslovic

GPP Sleeper – Kyle Connor 

Vegas Golden Knights VS St. Louis Blues

Vegas Golden Knights: Vegas did a great job of getting high danger chances through Dallas, but St Louis is Dallas if Dallas was good. Stepenson remains on the top line and buried a goal last game. Statsny is centering the best line on the team and is getting PP1 time.

5 star plays – none

4 star plays – none

Cash viable – none

GPP Sleeper – Jonathan Marchessault

St. Louis Blues: The Blues are really a hockey team that is for GPPs only, their shot volume is never great and they never get priced low enough to become value.

5 star plays – none

4 star plays – none 

Cash viable – none

GPP Sleeper – Vladimir Taransenko

Goalies:

Alex Stalock: Rough game so people should be coming off of him, I love how Minnesota ended last game and I think they carry that momentum into this one.

Cam Talbot: Calgarys defense is still weak enough to where he is going to see shots and still has a great chance at the W.