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NHL DFS At A Glance
These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.
ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
Nashville Predators VS Arizona Coyotes
Nashville Predators: Darcy Kuemper pooped the bed and it looks like they are going to be playing him again. I believe the Arizona is the better team here, not necessarily in talent but in system, Nashville’s coach refuses to play their best players the ice time that they deserve. The value is there so I think they will have some ownership in cash but it isn’t ownership I am waiting to eat.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Victor Arvidsson, Roman Josi
Cash viable – Victor Arvidsson
GPP Sleeper – Craig Smith
Arizona Coyotes: After a poor performance today I am expecting Tocchet to motivate the boys. Arizona is a great team at slowing down the other one and that is evident in their low xGA/60. Nashville is giving up the 2nd most shots on the slate so I am going back to the Taylor Hall value.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Taylor Hall, Phil Kessel
Cash viable – Taylor Hall, Phil Kessel
GPP Sleeper – Conor Garland
Tampa Bay Lightning VS Boston Bruins
Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa had a good performance in my opinion against the Capitals. Washington is a much easier team to score on than Boston is with their great defense and one of the best goalies in the league in Tuuka Rask. This is far from a smash spot for either of these teams but on a 5 game slate you can take what you get.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Ryan McDonagh, Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson
Cash viable – Ryan McDonagh, Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson
GPP Sleeper – Mikael Sergachev
Boston Bruins: Tampa is a force even without Stamkos and Pastrnak is 2 weeks off of being deemed out of shape. Just not a team I am looking to spend salary on. Large field GPPs only.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Brad Marchand
Pittsburgh Penguins VS Montreal Canadiens
Pittsburgh Penguins: If not for Carey Price this series is 2-0 Pittsburgh easily. Montreal are giving up the most shots on the slate and Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are going to cash in on this before the series is over. I love them both in cash tomorrow and I am fine with you playing both of them. Justin Schultz if he remains of the first PP is basically an auto lock.
5 star plays – Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby
4 star plays – Jake Guentzel, Justin Schultz, Bryan Rust
Cash viable – Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust
GPP Sleeper – none
Montreal Canadiens: Matt Murray has been the worst goalie in the league this year but he looks to be playing at least alright right now. Fade outside of Large Field GPPs
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Colorado Avalanche VS Dallas Stars
Colorado Avalanche: Colorado is my pick to come out of the West. They are fast, have great depth and good goaltending. Dallas does not score goals or play fast hockey. I worry that Dallas slows this game down but the trap cannot work forever with all that speed.
5 star plays – Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen
4 star plays – Andre Burakovsky
Cash viable – Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Andre Burakovsky
GPP Sleeper – Cale Makar
Dallas Stars: Tyler Seguin is great value on DK but besides that I am good here. I am looking for Colorado to dictate the pace.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Tyler Seguin
Cash viable – Tyler Seguin
GPP Sleeper – none
Dec 14, 2019; St. Louis, MO, USA; Chicago Blackhawks right wing Patrick Kane (88) defends during the third period against the St. Louis Blues at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Edmonton Oilers VS Chicago Blackhawks
Edmonton Oilers: This series has been non stop scoring and I do not really expect it to stop here. I expect Edmontons studs to take whatever Chicago is willing to give them, which I am assuming is a lot.
5 star plays – Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid
4 star plays – Ryan Nugent Hopkins
Cash viable – Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent Hopkins
GPP Sleeper – Kailer Yamamoto
Chicago Blackhawks: Edmontons defense is awful so the 6.5 total goes both ways obviously, I love Patrick Kane again as I think he is a lock for 5 SOG here. Alex Nylander is still slotting in on his line and is great value
5 star plays – Patrick Kane
4 star plays – Alex Nylander
Cash viable – Patrick Kane, Alex Nylander
GPP Sleeper – Brandon Saad
Goalies:
Darcy Kuemper: He has no where to go but up since that start and he easily has the highest upside of saves while still having good odds to win the game.
Philipp Grubauer: For those of you who are not looking for the save upside and are trying to lock in a W.