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DFS Army – NHL Breakaway Advice Strategy Picks and Player Pool for FanDuel and DraftKings – August 12th

Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!  You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process.  I am @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter.   But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players.  If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team!  Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.

NHL DFS At A Glance

These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.

ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.

Jan 6, 2020; Brooklyn, New York, USA; New York Islanders left wing Anders Lee (27) is congratulated by defenseman Scott Mayfield (24) after scoring the game winning goal against the Colorado Avalanche at NYCB Live in Uniondale New York.. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

 

New York Islanders VS Washington Capitals

New York Islanders: The Islanders are to the Capitals this series as the Blue Jackets are to the Lightning. Washington for sure has the talent over them but the Islanders play a style of hockey that makes it hard for teams to get high danger chances. New York should lose this series but if Washington comes skidding in like they were in the play in games and the Islanders can get some good goaltending, they can steal it. I will need to see that to believe it though.

5 star plays – none

4 star plays – Scott Mayfield

Cash viable – Scott Mayfield

GPP Sleeper – Matthew Barzal

Washington Capitals: Washington came into the play ins not looking their peak at all. Only averaged 10% on the PP and were not even getting over 25 shots a game. That being said we all know Washington is the better team here. With Carlson coming back I think you see them grooving more so than the previous games, this man would’ve probably snagged the Norris if the season went all the way through and he still might. Missing him on ice for his 25+ minutes is something the Caps just are not capable of doing.

5 star plays – Alex Ovechkin

4 star plays – John Carlson

Cash viable – Alex Ovechkin

GPP Sleeper – Jakub Vrana 

Arizona Coyotes VS Colorado Avalanche

Arizona Coyotes: Arizona only won because of goaltending, there is no way around that. Nashville brought the heat the last 2 games and Arizona let them, Darcy was just good enough to carry them out of the Play In. Now they face a top 2 team in the conference, this is not going to go well for Arizona goal scorers, we will be playing Coyotes for Block Shot upside and hoping they can get a tuck.

5 star plays – none

4 star plays – Alex Goligoski

Cash viable – Alex Goligoski

GPP Sleeper – Clayton Keller

Colorado Avalanche: I am so excited to finally see this team in the playoffs. Their depth everywhere is great and they have real top end talent in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. The only worry here is if Arizona plays trap hockey (they did not against the Predators) or Darcy just stands on his head all series again. Point being if Arizona plays average hockey Colorado are winning this in 5 or less.

5 star plays – Nathan MacKinnon

4 star plays – Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Vladislav Namestnikov

Cash viable – Nathan MacKinnon, Vladislav Namestnikov, Samuel Girard

GPP Sleeper – Nazem Kadri

Montreal Canadiens VS Philadelphia Flyers

Montreal Canadiens: Got by on the Penguins not playing to win in Game 4 after the Pens made them play their pace the first 3 games. Montreal is not going to beat the best team in hockey going into the “break.” Outside of Gallagher and value pieces we will not be touching the Canadiens this series.

5 star plays – none

4 star plays – Brendan Gallagher

Cash viable – Brendan Gallagher, Artemi Lehkonen, Brett Kulak

GPP Sleeper – Brendan Gallagher

Philadelphia Flyers: Well great news for fantasy (not), Philly said they will not be revealing their line combos to try and maintain and edge, so we will be playing a guessing game there. Regardless of that, I very much believe that the Flyers are going to take this series in a dominating fashion. Montreal does not have the man power to keep up with the Flyers depth and Carey Price is not Carey Price from 3 seasons ago.

5 star plays – none

4 star plays – Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny, Kevin Hayes

Cash viable – Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier, Kevin Hayes

GPP Sleeper – Kevin Hayes

Vancouver Canucks VS St Louis Blues

Vancouver Canucks: Going from playing the Wild to the Blues is well, something. St. Louis is a death pool for offensive fantasy production with their solid forecheck and defense and the Blues do not shoot a lot so the Block Shot upside. Not looking to touch Vancouver this slate.

5 star plays – none

4 star plays – none

Cash viable – none

GPP Sleeper – none

St Louis Blues: St. Louis should be able to handle this in 6 or less if this goes as it should. As mentioned this just is not a series built for fantasy production, Blues offer some playable value but nothing smash spot worthy.

5 star plays – none

4 star plays – Colton Parayko, David Perron, Vladimir Tarasenko

Cash viable – Colton Parayko, David Perron, Vladimir Tarasenko

GPP Sleeper – none

Goalies:

Carter Hart: Montreal throws low quality shots on net with great frequency, Carter should have no problem shying those away and it helps his W upside and save upside.

Darcy Kuemper: I would rather pay up for Hart in cash but you cannot argue against the fact that Kuemper has the highest save upside of any goalie on the slate.