Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I am @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter. But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.
ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
Columbus Blue Jackets VS Tampa Bay Lightning
Columbus Blue Jackets: Columbus took out Toronto by playing the perfect counter to them and they did beat TB doing the same exact thing last year. Tampa is going to be coming out with a vengeance after last’s year’s debacle and they are not going to shoot barely over 2% from 5v5 like the Leafs did. I like some of the Jackets D in Seth Jones and Vladislav Gavrikov, but that is it.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Seth Jones
Cash viable – Seth Jones, Vladislav Gavrikov
GPP Sleeper – Seth Jones
Tampa Bay Lightning: This is it, an immediate chance at redemption from last year for Tampa and I do not see them blowing it. Columbus played good hockey against Toronto and deserved the series but they heavily benefited from poor 5v5 play from Toronto and I do not think Tampa will be doing the same. Sergachev has amazing value on DK and Kucherov is the one of the only studs on the slate.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Nikita Kucherov, Mikael Sergachev
Cash viable – Nikita Kucherov, Mikael Sergachev, Tyler Johnson
GPP Sleeper – Mikael Sergachev
Calgary Flames VS Dallas Stars
Calgary Flames: What a lucky draw for both of these teams, besides Chicago you could argue these two teams are the worst to make the playoffs in the West, lucky for one of them, one has to advance. I honestly think this series is going to come down to goaltending. Talbot had an easy time against the Scheifele and Laine-less Jets and the Stars offense is not much better, especially with Seguin teetering the line on being fit to play. Honestly, I am not looking for any skaters in this series right now, goalies only.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Matthew Tkachuk
Dallas Stars: The Stars are by no means a juggernaut on offense and the Flames looked decent against a weakened Jets team while Dallas is only a fraction better than the Blackhawks with 3.08 xGA/60, second worst on the slate. Until someone shows me that is worth my time, this series is pure large field gpp stacks.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Miro Heiskanen
Carolina Hurricanes VS Boston Bruins
Carolina Hurricanes: Out of the small sample size of games we have gotten so far, I would say the Hurricanes looked the best out of any team. While they did play the Rangers who wouldn’t have been in the playoffs if not for this format, they still deserve credit. They are only below the Golden Knights in xGF/60 on this slate and Boston has not looked dynamic by any means during the restart. Sebastian Aho remains an elite play and Joel Edmundson has 13 SOG and 7 BS in the three games the Hurricanes played. As long as Hamilton remains out Joel is a lock.
5 star plays – Sebastian Aho, Joel Edmundson
4 star plays – Teuvo Teravainen
Cash viable – Sebastian Aho, Joel Edmundson, Teuvo Teravainen
GPP Sleeper – Vincent Trocheck
Boston Bruins: I think the break is going to severely throw this Boston team off if Rask cannot save goals above expectation. While they depth is there Boston did not get a lot of time to get Nick Ritchie and Ondrej Kase. Their depth performing here would be huge for them as the juggernaut line of BOS 1 remains expensive but has yet to perform to expectation. DeBrusk and Krejci offer good value on DK but outside of them not looking to load in any Boston players.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – David Krejci, Jake DeBrusk
GPP Sleeper – none
Chicago Blackhawks VS Vegas Golden Knights
Chicago Blackhawks: This is where the road ends, while the top end talent on Edmonton is as good as it gets in the league, Vegas’s depth is about as good as you get in the league and if you remember I have either them or Colorado coming out of the west. Chicago’s Dmen remain having great block upside, but unless Lehner chokes I do not see a way the Blackhawks make it through Vegas.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Calvin De Haan, Patrick Kane
Cash viable – Calvin De Haan
GPP Sleeper – Patrick Kane
Vegas Golden Knights: This could be a sweep and I would not be surprised, Vegas are built for this run. A great top 6, solid D core and probably the best goalie tandem in the playoffs with Lehner and Fleury. Max Pacioretty is someone I am locking in coming back and only $7200 and William Karlsson has great individual numbers so far during the playoffs.
5 star plays – Max Pacioretty
4 star plays – Mark Stone, William Karlsson
Cash viable – Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone, William Karlsson
GPP Sleeper – Reilly Smith
Goalies:
Robin Lehner: Revenge narrative as Chicago shipped him to Vegas at the deadline this year. Should be a lock in W who has some save upside to boot.
Cam Talbot: Save upside is not huge as Dallas are not a shooting team, but the Stars have not looked comfortable all playoffs and Calgary has a series W they are riding confidence from, more of a floor play than a ceiling.