BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 7 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 11-fight card at the UFC Apex in Vegas that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $20 buy-in & $200k goes to 1st place with $1M in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Kai Kamaka $8,900 vs Tony Kelley $7,300
This fight was added mid- week so hard to know what we will get cardio wise from these guys, but it should be a good fight. Kamaka just fought a couple weeks ago so I would worry less with the cardio from him and he looked pretty good. He looks strong and fast at 25 years old and he has some good boxing and solid overall striking. Kelley fought over a year ago and won with a 1st round submission and before that he fought once in 2016. He is the one I would worry about cardio wise, so I would guess he is the only looking for the finish here and the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Kamaka. I do think Kelley was a decent fighter though and I think he is live here and could maybe get a submission early. I do favor Kamaka in the striking though and I will take him because of all the unknowns with Kelley.
I would probably say Kelley is my preferred DK play since I would think he goes for a finish. I do like both sides of this fight and probably want to be overweight to both guys. This might be a fight I target in half or more of my lineups but GPP only. I don’t want to trust either guy for cash games so just hoping for a high ceiling from the winner here.
Winner – Kai Kamaka via Unanimous Decision
Parker Porter $8,500 vs Chris Daukaus $7,700
Parker Porter
Age: 35
Height: 6’0
Weight: 265
Reach: 74”
Gym: Underdog MMA
From: Connecticut
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 130
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -120
Parker Porter is making his debut at an old age. He is already 35 years old, but he should be on a 5-fight winning streak. Porter has been a pro since 2007, but not super active. I really am not very impressed with what I have seen from Parker. On the feet, he is primarily a boxer. He will mix some low kicks in there, but he likes to throw the hands. He does have a decent jab. He will double jab his way into range. Parker will throw double jab, overhand rights a lot. He gets overhand right happy in fights & really throws that shot a lot. He will wing it from the hip, but it’s not very technical. Parker will try to get inside, slip & return with punches. He landed a left hook on the chin of his last opponent that knocked him out. Parker can be very low volume & not do much for long periods in fights. He isn’t the best athlete and is there to be hit. He has been finished by strikes twice in his career. Parker has three KO/TKO’s himself.
Parker Porter is a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu & heavy on top. Porter has some nice knees in the clinch. He gets all his takedowns from the clinch also. Parker really isn’t an active seeker of the takedown. He really isn’t an explosive athlete, so he isn’t going to be shooting blast doubles, and it’s hard for him to close the distance. He tends to get it to the mat by reversing his opponents takedown attempts & he does have good takedown defense. When Porter does get on top, he is slow, deliberate and methodical. He will slowly work to advance position, soften opponents up with ground & pound and ultimately find a submission. His ground & pound doesn’t look very dangerous whatsoever, but he does have a sub game. He will attack the arms from side control and work kimuras and anacondas. Parker has a nice back take & submissions from there. He has been submitted a couple times early in his career. Porter doesn’t look in the best shape, but in his last fight he was still fresh in round three.
Christopher Daukaus
Age: 30
Height: 6’2
Weight: 256
Reach: N/A
Gym: Martinez BJJ
From: Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 167
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +100
Christopher Daukaus is the older, bigger brother of Kyle Daukaus. He will be looking to become the first Daukaus to win a UFC fight. Chris Daukaus is definitely not as good as his brother. He is more of a striker. Daukaus has fast hands for a heavyweight, good feints and pretty good movement. He has good jabs and one-twos down the pipe. He will throw a tricky high kick. Daukaus will get fighters against the fence where he has good flurries, and power. He definitely is going to have the power edge in this fight. Seven of Daukaus’ eight wins have come by KO/TKO. In Daukaus’ fight with UFC veteran Zu Anyanwu, he was actually doing quite well. He hurt Zu multiple times, dropped him & won the first round 10-8. In round two he was a lot more tired, but still winning the fight & just got caught with a right hand and taken out. Daukaus can be hittable in exchanges and has been finished by strikes twice himself.
Chris Daukaus doesn’t fight anything like his brother. He is much more of a striker than a grappler. I have seen him push fighters against the cage and look for trips. He dropped Anyanwu with a knee. Daukaus doesn’t go for takedowns very much in his fights though. I am not really sure about how he is on top or on bottom either. He was submitted in 2015 by Shawn Teed. With his opponent Parker Porter not being a great wrestler, I anticipate this fight being on the feet. If Parker can get on top of Daukaus with time to work, it could be trouble for him though. Daukaus is very tough, a full-time cop and strong mentally. His cardio isn’t the best, but he’s still dangerous.
Porter looks like he is going to be a lot bigger here, he is a big boy where Daukaus looks like he could cut to 185 lbs. I do think Daukaus is the better striker, but he is going to need to keep this striking or get a KO to have a shot. Porter is the more well-rounded guy and I think he could get the fight to the mat and have success in top control. Porter doesn’t look as dangerous as he should be, so I could see him not finishing and maybe getting caught on the feet if Daukaus can get back to the feet. Porter just has more ways to win this fight and should be able to use his size advantage to get this fight to the mat where Daukaus doesn’t have much to offer.
Porter is my preferred play here because I think he is more likely to get takedowns and I like him to win. Either guy could get a KO though and maybe that is more likely Daukaus, so both are in play. I won’t make either guy a priority, but I won’t X either out either. I am guessing I will be around 10-15% on both guys with a lean on Porter. Don’t trust these guys in cash.
Winner – Parker Porter via 2nd round (T)KO
Livinha Souza $8,400 vs Ashley Yoder $7,800
Livinha Souza
Age: 29
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Team Maximo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -165
Livinha Souza will be making her return after injuries cost her about a year away from the octagon. The last time we saw her she was losing a decision to Brianna Van Buren in July of 2019. I hope Souza can get back on track here because she is a rarity for woman’s SW. she talks the talk and walks the walk. Souza the Brazilian Gangsta takes care of business in the cage. She has finished 10 of her 13 wins, 7 in the first round, and has never been finished. Souza is light on her feet with good lateral and side to side movement. Souza has nice leg kicks, and one-twos. She has very fast hands. In this fight, she should throw long hooks & straight punches. Her straight-right hand is powerful, and she will use it to close the distance where she will attack with hooks to the head & body. She likes to get inside & brawl as well, but in this fight, she needs to stay on the outside. She has nasty body kicks and has finished Deanna Bennet with a liver kick who is a 125er. Souza will not go backwards & allow Yoder to bully her. She has 2 two KO/TKO’s, and never been finished in her career.
Souza is a black belt in BJJ and very aggressive with her Jiu-Jitsu. She will dive on submissions in the clinch, try to get standing guillotines and just pull opponents down to her world. She likes to attack with leg locks off bottom. She will attack with double and single leg shots but her best takedown is her trips and judo throws. In her last match though, she showed improved timing on her double legs. She was able to take Frota’s back who is also a black belt, and almost submitted her via rear naked choke, but Frota was saved by the bell. She will also pull guard where she has great sweeps and good leg locks. She has good armbar attacks also. She is comfortable fighting off her back and doesn’t take much damage there. She has hard ground & pound elbows & has great back takes. She has great rear guillotine chokes and is very opportunistic with submissions. When she sees an opportunity, she goes for it. Souza has 8 submissions in her career & has finished 10 of her 13 fights overall. She has great cardio and has five round championship experience.
Ashley Yoder
Age: 32
Height: 5’7
Weight: 115
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: Team Quest
From: California
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: 35
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +145
Ashley Yoder is getting back on the horse following her split decision loss at the hands of Randa Markos. Even in a loss I feel Yoder raised her stock in that fight. She has looked pretty good in her last two matches in the UFC. Yoder is long and tries to accentuate it, but she isn’t a great striker and is a bit flat footed. She will throw a nice one-two. Her straight-right hand looked improved and less loopy against Dern. She has a nice fade away, overhand right moving backwards. She has a good overhand left & left hook. She will throw front kicks to the body, and decent inside leg kicks. She is aggressive and will press forward, eat shots and continue to throw. She has a very good chin and will walk through shots undeterred. She doesn’t have great speed, and she can get hit clean with faster, tighter punches. In this fight, I think she has the faster hand speed though & hits harder. Yoder has zero KO/TKO’s & never has been finished by strikes.
Yoder is a strong grappler & good Jiu-Jitsu player. She likes to get a single collar clinch when opponents are pressuring and has a solid head & arm throw. She will try to get in the clinch and grind for takedowns against the cage as well. In her last match she did a great job of working the Thai plum & then ducking under into single leg takedowns. She will dive on submissions both from standing and while on the ground and is very aggressive trying to take the back. Her fight IQ isn’t good, and she will try to take the back too hastily at times and end up on bottom. On her back she is comfortable as well and will throw up subs but can be grinded out. She is very good at creating scrambles & ending up in top position. She has a good mount & will rain down decent shots. She has great cardio and is very scrappy. Yoder has 3 submissions & has never been finished.
I like picking both of these ladies in their fights, so this is a tough one. I think Souza is the more technical and dangerous striker and the better wrestler. Yoder is going to have the size advantage on the feet and she could win the striking battles with volume. I also think Yoder could be the better all-around grappler of the two, but it is close, and I think there will be a lot of back and forth grappling in this one. I love betting Yoder at + money but I don’t know that I can do it in this one because I see Souza being the aggressor and not giving Yoder the space that she needs to work with on the feet, and I don’t know that Yoder can consistently get takedowns either.
I would say Souza has a better chance of finishing this fight, so she is my preferred play. There could be a lot of scrambles which could add up, but I don’t really see a high score coming from this fight with no finish. I won’t X either out of my player pool but if neither ended up making a lineup in my first 20 lineups, then I am ok with that. This would be more of a last spot in my lineup based on who fits type of fight.
Winner – Livinha Souza via Unanimous Decision
TJ Brown $8,800 vs Danny Chavez $7,400
TJ Brown
Age: 30
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Westside Fight Team
From: Arkansas
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 226
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Tj Brown crapped the bed in his UFC debut. He was in route to a dominant victory over Jordan Griffin, and allowed himself to get caught and choked out. I’m sure that is eating at him & he trained as hard as possible for this camp. With a 14-7 record Brown has to avoid going 0-2, or I could easily see him getting cut. The first thing that you notice when you watch TJ Brown is his aggressiveness & explosiveness early in rounds. He can come out hot with both his striking and grappling. He is very fast & can switch stances. He has a very good jab that he will double and triple up on to get into range. He has heavy one-twos, hooks & nasty head kicks. He has won via head kick in two of his last four fights. The problem on the feet with Brown is he is super aggressive & will get in wars. He can overextend a bit on his punches in the pocket & lead with the uppercut. He can get countered by clean boxers, such as when he was dropped in round one vs Dylan Lockard. He can get hit & has been knocked out before. He has 4 knockouts himself but has been finished 3 times with strikes.
Tj Brown is a very good grappler. He is extremely strong & manhandles opponents in the cage. Brown has very nice takedowns & a lot of variety with them. He will hit them with traditional wrestling shots, or in the clinch. Brown is excellent in top position. He has great control & slow cooks opponents. He will slowly advance position, and land hard punches & elbows. He is very good at using front head locks to snap opponents back down or control them. He will trap a wrist from side control or the wrestlers ride position & land big shots. Browns go to submission is his arm triangle. He hits it very quickly and has six in his career. He has great back takes and is great at flattening opponents out. He will rain down big ground & pound, and then look to lock in rear naked chokes. Brown is very good in scrambles and when he can get in on the legs he usually will end up on top. Brown can get taken down but will attack off his back with nice kimuras. He was able to work himself back to top position multiple times against college wrestler Dylan Lockard. Tj Brown dominated Lockard in the grappling realm & ultimately submitted him. Brown can get a little sloppy on bottom & give his back to stand up and has been rear naked choked twice. He was caught in a low percentage submission in his last fight & got choked out unconscious. Brown has excellent cardio & will never quit.
Danny Chavez
Age: 33
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: MMA Masters
From: Florida
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 325
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +130
Danny Chavez is getting his opportunity in the UFC here. He has won 3 in a row and has a record of 10-3 overall. All of Chavez’s losses have come against solid competition, but he hasn’t really faced any name guys. Chavez trains out of a good gym in MMA Masters in Florida. It’s really hard for me to make a pick or breakdown this fight whatsoever though. The only footage I was able to find was a quick snippet showing his knockout over Pipe Vargas, and his last fight which was about 2.5 minutes. He looked like he was quick and had good kicks. He likes to use a wide taekwondo type stance and tries to stay long and counter with one-twos. In his last fight, he was doing a great job of catching his opponent as he tried to close the distance. He eventually tagged him and KO’d him. He looks fast, rangy, and slick. He does get backed up a bit, and when he got his opponent hurt in his last fight he did get a little wild. Chavez does have three first round knockouts in a row.
Danny Chavez’s grappling is a question mark. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, but he has no career submissions. I did see him dig double underhooks and work himself off the cage well in his last fight. He was able to sneak some knees in while in the clinch as well. His opponent looked like a striker who got overwhelmed and decided to grapple though. The way he was backing himself up to the fence made me feel he could potentially get taken down. He does have a loss via guillotine choke in the fifth round of a fight with Jason Soares. He has no submission victories.
There isn’t a lot of footage out there on Chavez, but he looks to be a striker and his kicks look like the best part of his game. Aside from a possible guillotine, I don’t see him having any real success on the ground here. I think Brown is very aggressive on the feet as well, so I think he wins on the feet just on volume and pressure alone. He could get a KO on the feet, but I think he can get takedowns and have a lot of success with ground and pound or work his way to a submission like the arm triangle which is his specialty. I don’t see why Brown would want to strike a lot here when that is where the danger will be, but I would say this is KO or bust for Chavez.
This is going to be a fight I am close to all-in on. I think if Brown wins, he has the style to score high like we saw with his 63-point 2nd round loss in his debut. The line is also moving the other way, so his ownership probably won’t be as high as I think it should. I like Brown a lot for DK and that will go for most of his fights in the future as well. However, his durability is an issue and if Chavez wins I expect it to be a finish. That scores as well so I just want a ton of exposure to this fight as a whole and Brown will be closer to a core play for me.
Winner – TJ Brown via 2nd round Submission
Virna Jandiroba $9,000 vs Felice Herrig $7,200
Virna Jandiroba
Age: 32
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 64”
Gym: Academia Fight House
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -310
Virna Jandiroba put her first UFC win on the board her last time out. She was able to dominate & ultimately submit Mallory Martin in the second round. Jandiroba has to be hovering around that top fifteen. She has a 15-1 record, and her only loss was a close fight against former UFC champion Carla Esparza. Jandiroba will be welcoming back Esparza’s friend Felice Herrig to the octagon. Jandiroba isn’t the greatest striker. She is slow & a bit stiff with her technique. She will throw a jab, left hook combination out there. She will throw a one-two or jab, overhand right. She throws a lot of round kicks to the body. When she throws shots, she leaves herself very open to counters. She doesn’t bring her hands back to her face fast enough, and fighters that can see her slower shots coming can counter her. She doesn’t move her head & her chin is high. If she is forced to strike, she looks uncomfortable & will shoot some bad takedowns. She has never been finished & has no KO/TKO’s herself.
Jandiroba has no secret of where she wants the fight. She wants to put opponents on their backs. She is a strong wrestler with nice timing on double legs. She will hit nice body locks. In the clinch, Virna is tricky hitting sacrifice throws and trips. On top, she is excellent. She has tremendous guard passing ability & a solid game. She likes to move to half guard where she is heavy & has nice, short elbows. She will look for arm triangles. Jandiroba will attack with a guillotine, crucifix position & mount take from there. She will fake like she is going to go for a guillotine & move right into mount. She has a high mount with amazing control & will look for armbars & triangles. She will take the back & has nice rear naked chokes. All she needed was one back take against Mallory Martin and the fight was over shortly after. Martin was attacking chokes instead of defending takedowns, and kind of gave Virna the fight she wanted. Jandiroba is much more submission over ground & pound, but she will soften opponents up with big hammerfists & elbows. She is extremely heavy on top & has a very pressure passing, methodical top game. She is one of the best Jiu-Jitsu players in the UFC women’s divisions. It’s an interesting clash because Jandiroba favors more position over submission & off her back when she fought Carla Esparza she didn’t seem as strong. Esparza was able to take her down quite a few times. She had good double legs she landed on Jandiroba along with catching her kicks & bringing her down. In this fight, I think Herrig will probably just try to keep it standing. Jandiroba did get a nice half guard sweep. Jandiroba has 12 submissions. If she can get the fight to the mat, she is dangerous, especially early.
Felice Herrig
Age: 35
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 65”
Gym: Team Curran MMA
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +255
Felice Herrig is making her return after an extended layoff. Herrig suffered a torn ACL and hasn’t fought since October of 2018. The last time we saw her she was losing a decision to Michelle Waterson. At 35 years old I do think the best days are behind Herrig. She will be looking to snap a two-fight losing streak when she takes on Virna. Herrig is an ok boxer and has a nice right hand. She is a bit stiff with plodding footwork, but she does cut the cage off well. Herrig does a good job of landing her punches and getting out of range for the counters. She has a nice one-two and good body kicks. She does a good job of going over and around her opponent’s guards and finding shots that are able to get through. She has no problem throwing down, standing in the pocket and throwing power shots. She has a nice check left hook, and Herrig does a good job of coming in with a game plan and being able to exploit her opponent’s weaknesses defensively. She landed the right hook and one-two very consistently against Alexa Grasso, and then used the left hook effectively against Kish and Casey. She will throw the front kick to the body and head occasionally, but she isn’t a big kicker other than leg kicks. She has a good chin and is willing to eat shots to give them back. She doesn’t react as well to getting hit to the body, and she can duck down when she throws punches at times leaving her susceptible to uppercuts and front knees. In her fight with Michelle Waterson she seemed a step slow trying to close the gap & was getting hit with a lot of kicks. Herrig will definitely have the power advantage in her hands & probably the overall striking advantage. She should look to exploit that. Felice has never been finished by strikes, but also only has one TKO herself.
Felice Herrig is an underrated grappler. She is a purple belt in Jiu-Jitsu, and very physically strong for the division. She will need to have that grappling on full display here. In the clinch, Herrig is very strong. She will dominate girls with big elbows and knees. She has nice body locks and good double leg takedowns. On top, Herrig has great top control, passing ability, and back takes. Herrig isn’t super dangerous with submissions on top but does have one rear naked choke. Herrig was taken down by Michelle Waterson in the second round of her last fight. Waterson was able to get multiple minutes of top control time in the round, and Herrig ended the round on her back. Felice Herrig does have a really slick armbar. She will throw up triangles also. Herrig has three armbar submissions. Herrig has never been submitted according to her pro record, but she was submitted on the ultimate fighter by Randa Markos. Herrig is a veteran, and a very tough, determined fighter. She has the cardio to go three rounds and will push hard for the win the entire fight.
Herrig is coming back from a torn ACL here and she is now 35 years old. I think she will still be the better striker, and the stronger fighter of the two. She usually has the grappling edge in her fights though and that won’t be the case here. I think this fight will mainly take place on the ground and both fighters could have their moments, but I have to favor Jandiroba here and I think she could get a submission at some point. Her lone loss was to Herrig’s friend and training partner in Esparza though so maybe she has a good game plan on this one. If she wasn’t coming back from the ACL repair I would probably take a small shot on Herrig’s line here. I just don’t know that I can trust her here and I am going to pick Jandiroba to win.
It is real hard to want to pay the salary on Jandiroba so that makes Herrig my preferred play. I like her in cash as well with the -205 FGTD line and I think she is live here. I don’t see any real ceiling for Herrig, but I think she can win with ~60 points and I will take that for sure in cash. In GPPs that could possibly be enough at her price and she does have a higher ceiling than that, so I want exposure to her there as well. Jandiroba is more likely to finish though and I think she could do that in round one. She is in play for me as well, but I will have small exposure to her hoping Herrig makes it out of round 1. If she makes it out of round 2, then I think Jandiroba will be off the optimal in a win.
Winner – Virna Jandiroba via Unanimous Decision
Jim Miller $8,300 vs Vinc Pichel $7,900
Jim Miller
Age: 36
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Miller Brothers MMA
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 21-13-1
Fight Matrix: 34
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +105
Jim Miller will be looking to make it two in a row in the Covid era. Miller is at his best when he can go forward. He will get his inside, outside leg kicks going, his nasty right hook & good straight or overhand left. Miller will explode in with straight punches to the body then go up to the head. He will use the blitz to the body attack to set up doubles later in the fight. In his last match, Miller showed the ability to strike moving backwards. He got clipped with a big shot that rocked him but decided to plant his feet & spring on a counter which floored Clay Guida. Miller still has pop in his hands & I feel he throws the better, tighter punches in exchanges. Miller will throw some nice body & head kicks. He tends to get taken down a lot off his body kicks. Fighters catch them & drag him to the mat. Miller at this stage has taken some damage & been finished by strikes more than once. He is not as durable as he was and should avoid a fire fight. Miller has never been a big threat to finish opponents with strikes with just four career TKO’s. He has been KO/TKO’d twice himself.
Miller is still a fantastic wrestler and has a black belt in BJJ. Miller does a great job of landing reactive double legs and hides them well with his punches. He has a good single leg as well and can use it to drive his opponents to the cage and get a double leg. He is very dogged with his attempts, and willing to take punishment to get the fight to the mat. On top, Miller is awesome, he has great control and scrambling ability. He is very good at flowing on top and is always looking for submissions. He does a great job of finding the back & getting rear naked chokes. He is willing to really go for submissions such as guillotines and back takes, and when he gets them he looks great, but it also gets him in trouble when he doesn’t. When he gets opponents hurt, he will dive on submissions. He rocked Guida, jumped on his neck & got a submission victory his last time out. His last three wins have come via submission after some shots landed on the feet. Miller has been susceptible to takedowns himself, but it has mostly been against large wrestlers; Benson Henderson, Francisco Trinaldo, Michael Chiesa, Beneil Dariush, and Pat Healy are all big wrestlers, and were able to grind him out. In this fight I see Miller being the one getting the takedowns. He has 16 career submissions & has been submitted 3 times himself. Miller slows way down after round one & is really a first round finisher at this point of his career.
Vinc Pichel
Age: 37
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: CSA
From: California
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 79
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -125
Vinc Pichel is making his return to the UFC after yet another long layoff. He is getting a chance to fight the biggest name of his career in Jim Miller. Pichel is a big, powerful fighter with one-punch knockout power. He has good footwork & forward pressure. He does a good job of cutting off the cage. He will cut the cage off by switching stances & has knockout power from both sides. He starts fights with a lot of big leg kicks to both the inside & outside. He will close distance with big, chopping leg kicks with full power. He has a stiff jab and feints his way in well. He has nice straight-right hands & left hooks. He will throw heavy overhand rights. He will use his overhand rights & right hooks to crash into the clinch against the cage. He has nice kicks with both legs. He will throw nice switch kicks to the body & head. When opponents get inside on him, he likes to throw uppercuts in the pocket.
Pichel is a big, physical fighter & a solid offensive wrestler. He will shoot body locks & doubles against the cage. He has a good blast double in space. He also attacks in the clinch with heavy knees to the head. In this fight, I would look to keep this on the feet. He tends to get a bit tired when he wrestles & doesn’t have the best top control. I’m not sure the energy exertion will be worth it to take Miller down. His takedown defense isn’t the best, but he’s hard to hold down & has good get-ups. He will try to make opponents pay when they get in on his legs with shots, but he gives takedowns up easy. He will try to counter with front chokes & snap opponents down. He will use a butterfly guard off his back. He will also attack with armbars. He is good at bellying down into single legs & getting back up. He needs to avoid getting out on his back here.
These are two old guys who are still performing at a pretty high level. Miller is actually the younger guy in this fight for a change and he is the better and more dangerous grappler of the two. I think he could also have the better boxing early in the fight as well. Pichel is the better wrestler of the two though and he has more power on the feet as well. I think he probably is more likely to take over late if this fight does go into round 3. I think Miller will look better and could possibly finish in round 1, but I see the momentum changing later in the fight if Pichel can survive. This one is tough to call, and I really don’t have much of a lean either way. I don’t see me making any bets on this fight unless one fighter moved to +150.
I don’t have a ton of interest in either guy here, but I am not willing to X either guy out of my player pool either. I like that Pichel is cheaper and the betting favorite, so that makes him my preferred play in all formats, but I think Miller is the one more likely to win in the 1st round. I won’t take any strong stand here, but I will have a bit more Pichel exposure and will have this fight in less than 40% of my lineups.
Winner – Vinc Pichel via Unanimous Decision
Merab Dvalishvili $8,700 vs John Dodson $7,500
Merab Dvalishvili
Age: 29
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Serra Longo Fight Team
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -240
Merab Dvalishvili is a beast on the feet. He is a little wild, but he throws with big power & is very fast. He has a good jab & a nice one-two. He will throw a jab, uppercut & his uppercut is hard to see coming due to his constant wrestling threat. He dropped Ricky Simon with an uppercut. He has a nice left hook in close range. He will throw hard hooks in combination while in close range. He has nice kicks. He throws good leg kicks, nice front kicks to the body and will go up top as well. He will throw a lot of spinning attacks, he has a spinning backfist KO in his career, and will throw spinning heel kicks as well. He has good superman punches. He is very fast in and out and I think his opponents are surprised at his speed and pace he can keep. He isn’t the most technical fighter on the feet, and he is available to be hit, but he usually is the one controlling the center of the cage and throwing first. He can throw un-setup leg kicks at times & return his hands slow in the pocket. He needs to be careful not to get hit clean with a kick or straight shot from Dodson. When he is going forwards, he is usually winning. When he gets a fighter backing up, he will put heavy pressure on his opponent & swarm. Merab has two knockouts & has never been finished.
Merab is a great wrestler and is very strong in the clinch. He has great double and single legs, and he drives through and gets takedowns with force. He has a strong body lock and will get a lock around the waist, circle to the back and suplex opponents or just drag them to the mat. He catches kicks and gets takedowns as well, and he can continue to take fighters down over and over without slowing down. He is excellent & staying connected when opponents stand up and mat returning them. He will try to jump on the back from that position as well and can sometimes get a little too overzealous & get shucked off. He has gotten 10+ takedowns in 5 of his 6 UFC fights. He has been able to takedown former college wrestlers with ease. Obviously, he has proven that he has the cardio to get continuous takedowns even if he can’t cement position. In his matches against Terrion Ware & Brad Katona, he was able to keep top position & beat them up with big elbows from full & half guard. Merab has calmed down a bit in the cage. Instead of going for low risk back takes and giving up top position, he is staying heavy & just winning the fight. He in my opinion knocked himself out with a takedown against Ricky Simon and was rolled over into a guillotine. It was a very weird and controversial finish as he never tapped, but they gave Simon the technical submission victory. His takedown defense is very good & he denies them easily. When he was taken down by Simon, he was able to stand back up quickly. Merab has one submission victory & has only been submitted once. He is more of a grinder & wins via decision.
John Dodson
Age: 35
Height: 5’2
Weight: 135
Reach: 66”
Gym: Jackson Acoma
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 10-6
Fight Matrix: 12
Last Fought:6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +200
John Dodson is an extremely fast and explosive bantamweight. He uses short explosions in the form of a single punch counter or a combination. He has KO power in his hands and that’s why he can get away with being low output. When he lands, he puts fighters to sleep or hurts them, bad. Dodson likes to stay outside of boxing range but close enough to kick and will be fast enough to get out of the way of his opponent’s counters even with the reach disadvantage in most fights. Dodson doesn’t really commit to his kicks, but he throws fast, low leg kicks to get range and mostly just feints and gets out of the way of his opponents strikes and frustrating them. When they don’t expect it, he blitzes in with an explosive combination or counter and is very left hand heavy, with very good speed. He works to the body with a left hook at the end of the combinations to get his opponent to drop their hands, and then he goes upstairs with his KO shot, the left hook. Dodson is good at landing straights to the body & then to the head. Dodson is extremely good at landing, angling, almost playing tag, until he can time a power shot. He is extremely hard to cut off or hit and has top notch defense and movement. The constant moving backwards, and barely evading shots give the judges the impression he’s losing at times. He has had issues letting off in recent fights, but he did get a KO his last fight. He was able to drop Petr Yan by bouncing off the cage & countering with a straight-left. He was forced in a fire fight & while he did break a little in round three, he gave Yan a tough fight. Dodson has 12 career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished.
Dodson doesn’t really use wrestling in his fights but is a two-time state champion wrestler and uses it to stay on his feet or if there is a lull in the action. Dodson is tremendous at catching kicks and will use those to work takedowns. He also got a clinch takedown in his last match. Dodson has very good takedown defense, a great sprawl, heavy hips, and is like a cat. He can spring right back to his feet & is very hard to hold down. He probably will have to show that off in this matchup & defend a couple takedowns. Dodson has good cardio. He has close split decision losses to the elite of the division in Marlon Moraes and John Lineker and gave Petr Yan a good match. He is a hard style to deal with for anybody.
Merab is a new breed of wrestlers. This guy is nonstop, and his pace is very impressive. He has had 5 UFC fights and all 5 have gone to decision. He still averages 4 significant strikes per minute along with a crazy 8.67 takedowns per 15-minutes. Dodson is going to be the better striker here and much more likely to get a knockout, but Merab’s pace is enough to beat him on the feet IMO if he doesn’t get knocked out. But it is the wrestling that sets Merab apart from basically everybody else and even against a guy with great takedown D like Dodson, I still expect him to be taken down multiple times each round. This is a tough test, but I think it is KO or bust for Dodson and I don’t think he will get much time and space to allow for that KO, so I will take Merab by decision.
Merab is obviously my preferred play and he will be a core play for me as always. However, this is a tougher DraftKings matchup for Merab because Dodson will be looking to run away from him and that could take away from possible points and the massive ceiling we love. I do think he can still rinse and repeat takedowns if he can get ahold of him though, so I have to get him in 50% or more of my lineups. Dodson is in play for the KO and if he gets it then maybe he is on the nuts. I am going to fade him though with 20 or less lineups.
Winner – Merab Dvalishvili via Unanimous Decision
Herbert Burns $8,900 vs Daniel Pineda $7,300
Herbert Burns
Age: 32
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: Combat Club
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 30
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -280
Herbert Burns is looking to just keep racking up the wins here. He already has two wins under the UFC banner in 2020. He looked very good in both fights getting first round finishes. Burns is an improving striker. With every performance he is showing more confidence in his striking. Burns likes throwing straight shots. He will stay light on his feet, bouncing in & out, and is going to be the faster fighter. Burns has a good jab. He will throw the one-two & straight-right hand often. Burns will occasionally throw a jab, overhand right combination. Burns will throw some nice, low leg kicks & round kicks to the body. He will throw front kicks to the body & head with both legs. In Burns match with Nate Landwehr, he landed a beautiful knee as his opponent blitzed in with a flurry. Burns defensively is hittable. He will throw his kicks without setting them up at times & get countered or taken down because of that. Burns doesn’t have big power in the hands and isn’t best boxer. Burns does have a great chin & I’ve seen him eat some big shots. He has just one career KO.
Herbert Burns is an elite Jiu-Jitsu competitor & knows where his bread is buttered. He likes to almost immediately close the distance & try to get in the clinch or shoot in on double legs. Burns has pretty quick level changes & nice double leg takedowns. He also will look for trips & foot sweeps in the clinch. In Burns’ last match, he ended up taking the back from standing, and quickly locked in a rear naked choke. Burns has no problem pulling guard either & is very comfortable on the mat. When Burns gets top position, he is excellent at quickly taking the back. He will lock in the body triangle & has great control. He will flatten opponents out & lock in the rear naked choke. Burns gets a lot of submissions off his back also. He will go inverted, attacking the legs & has great triangles & armbars. Burns can be losing the entire fight & then pull a submission out of his hat. Burns has 8 submissions in his career. Burns flopping to his back & his limited striking can look bad to the judges. He is only 2-2 in decisions.
Daniel Pineda
Age: 35
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: 4Oz Fight Club
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-4
Fight Matrix: 29
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-0-2
Current Streak: 2NC
Betting Odds: +240
Daniel Pineda will be making his return to the UFC after nearly 7 years away from the promotion. Pineda has been around. He has fought in EliteXC, Bellator, UFC, LFA, and most recently the PFL. I’m a bit surprised the UFC has brought back Pineda though. He did win two fights in one night in the PFL, but they were overturned to no contests due to a drug test failure. He hasn’t fought since then. To Pineda’s credit, he is technically 10-2 with some pretty good wins since leaving the UFC. His two losses were a split decision to Emmanuel Sanchez, and a stoppage due to a cut vs Georgi Karakhanyan. In his fight with Georgi, Pineda was dominating the fight, then got hit with an up kick that cut him and the doctor ended it. Pineda is a powerhouse on the feet. He has big power in his hands and legs. Pineda is also very explosive while closing the distance. Pineda likes to sit in a low stance and then explode in with hooks to the body & then up to the head. When he backs fighters up he will flurry with punches as they’re against the cage. Pineda likes to come in with hooks & follow with uppercuts. He throws hard, thudding, low kicks. Pineda will throw some nice high kicks. He throws a lot of spinning kicks and can go to the well too much with those in my opinion. Pineda is a wrestler at heart and can get sloppy and look uncomfortable on the feet sometimes. He can get wide with his punches and throw spinning kicks that get him off balanced. He does have an iron chin historically. He has only been put down by strikes one time in over 40 fights. Pineda is very dangerous in the opening round. Seven of Pineda’s 9 KO/TKO’s happened in round one.
Daniel Pineda is a very strong grappler. He is super physical for the division, and just manhandles some guys. Pineda has very good level changes and a sick double leg. Pineda is very good at getting the tight waist in the clinch, circling to the back & jumping on it from standing or suplexing his opponent. Once Pineda gets in top position, he is super aggressive. He looks to get into dominant positions and rain down ground & pound until his opponent gives him the submission. Pineda likes to get to the mount where he will look to setup triangles. He has good back takes and rear naked chokes. Pineda early on is super hard to hold down, and excellent at reversing position. Pineda was able to stand up from under a great grinder in Jeremy Kennedy more than once in his last match. He was ultimately able to snatch up the neck when Kennedy went for a double and submitted Kennedy with a guillotine. Pineda has multiple leg lock finishes as well. Pineda can start to accept being on his back as fights progress. He will throw spins on the feet that off balance him and let fighters get on top. Pineda has been submitted six times. Those were all in the beginning of his career, and he hasn’t been submitted since 2010, but he has to be careful with Herbert. Overall the best word to describe Pineda is he is a finisher. All 26 of his wins have come via finish. He has 18 career submissions. Pineda does slowdown in the third. Pineda is only 3-5 in fights that hit the third round and 0-5 in decisions.
This looks like a setup fight to get Burns a win. Pineda is the much more experienced fighter and could keep this close on the feet. He has 41 total fights and 18 of his wins are by submission. And he has zero decision wins. Burns is going to be the better grappler here and I think he might be the better striker as well. This is a great matchup for Burns and I think he gets a submission win like the UFC wants here.
Burns is my preferred play here and I do expect him to pick up a submission. I like him in all formats and I would guess I am in line with the field or slightly overweight. I do have some interest in Pineda on DK though, so I won’t be fading him. I won’t be high on him either, but maybe a guy that I throw in 10% of lineups, just in case he gets the KO at low ownership.
Winner – Herbert Burns via 1st round Submission
Jairzinho Rozenstruik $8,400 vs Junior Dos Santos $7,800
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Age: 32
Height: 6’3
Weight: 242
Reach: 78”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Suriname
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -135
Jairzinho has phenomenal stand up. He has a sick jab, one of the best in the UFC. We have seen him essentially finish two people with jabs in the octagon. He has heavy inside, outside leg kicks & a great jab. He has good power in his hands. He will throw a jab, right hook, or a jab, overhand right combination. He has a powerful counter left hook. He has a nice uppercut, left hook. He is fleet of feet for a big man and can close distance quickly. He will throw occasional head kicks & flying knees. He will throw front kicks to the face also. Jairzinho likes to throw jabs or straight-right hands to head kick combinations. He is very explosive in close range. Jairzinho can allow opponents to control the center, and back himself towards the cage. He will look to stand stationary & try to catch opponents with left hooks or uppercuts as they come inside. Jairzinho landed a left hook, right uppercut to a head kick combination that put Junior Albini out in his UFC debut. He followed that up dropping Allen Crowder with a jab & knocked out Arlovski with one punch. He proved he can go five rounds and still have power in his fight finishing Overeem in the dying seconds. Jairzinho has 8 knockouts in 9 wins. He was KO’d for the first time in his MMA career in his last fight.
Rozenstruik’s grappling is questionable. His takedown defense is not good. He was taken down multiple times in round one by Junior Albini. Albini was able to land a single & body lock takedown. Albini was able to pass his guard into side control, he attacked with a kimura & even took the back. Jairzinho was able to turn in & take top position when Albini took his back. Against Sergey Kovalev he was taken down in round 2 with a double leg & couldn’t get-up. Kovalev was able to land the takedown directly into side control. Kovalev was able to land some nice elbows & knees to the body. He did deny Kovalev from taking the mount, but he couldn’t stand up. He was controlled the entirety of the round. In round 3 though, he was able to deny a takedown attempt and land a body lock of his own. Jairzinho looked heavy in top position & postured and rained down some big elbows. Jairzinho Rozenstruik allows fighters to clinch to up with him against the cage far too easily. He puts himself there by himself & Junior Albini was able to put him against the cage with double underhooks several times. He can be too worried about takedown defense after he’s taken down, and not let his hands go. He does show good patience and ability to stay composed when taken down. He won’t make any dumb moves to get finished & is defensively sound. Jairzinho isn’t a threat on the mat offensively. He has no submissions. He needs to avoid going to the mat. Rozenstruik does fight at a smart pace & should not gas.
Junior Dos Santos
Age: 36
Height: 6’3
Weight: 238
Reach: 77”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 15-6
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +115
Junior Dos Santos is one of the best HWs of all time. He has beaten fighters such as Stipe Miocic, Cain Velasquez, Fabricio Werdum, and Shane Carwin. He is a great boxer, and very fast with his hand speed for a HW. He has a nasty jab and will attack the body with it regularly. I see his jab being an integral part to his win here if he gets it. He does a great job of working off his jab after establishing it. After he bloodied Rothwell’s face, he began feinting the jab and throwing overhand right, right & left hooks. He has a great counter left hook, and his counter punching makes it hard for fighters to be aggressive with Dos Santos. Dos Santos has nasty, low leg kicks, he hurt the leg of Stipe Miocic prior to being finished in his title fight, and I think he will utilize those in this fight. His footwork has always been an issue, he doesn’t have great lateral movement and fighters are able to push him to the cage. When he gets stuck against the cage, he doesn’t react well, and can get hit clean or taken down. Dos Santos has been better in his last two fights of using his jab and more lateral movement, but that is still an issue for him. Dos Santos is extremely dangerous and has huge power. He has 14 KO/TKO’s and has finished some of the best HWs of all time. He has taken a lot of damage and his chin is questionable at this point. He has been finished 5 times by KO/TKO, and they were his last five losses.
Junior Dos Santos is a good grappler, and I think he may try to use that here early. We don’t usually see him go for many takedowns, but he has shown good blast double legs and can shoot singles, push his opponents to the cage and then look for a takedown from there. I feel he may try to take Rozenstruik down early and drain some of his gas tank by controlling him on the mat. Defensively, Dos Santos has great takedown defense and is very hard to hold down. I don’t see that being an issue in this match, and highly doubt Rozenstruik will shoot a takedown. Dos Santos has had much more experience in five round fights, and he can go all 5 rounds comfortably. He has only 1 submission in his career and been submitted one time.
JDS is the better boxer here but Jairzinho is the more powerful striker with more tools in the striking department. JDS also has a suspect chin these days and any big shot from Jairzinho could put him out here. I think it is KO or bust for Jairzinho though and I don’t like laying juice on those type of fighters. I think JDS could get a KO of his own and I think he will have success with his boxing if he can avoid the KO shot. I also see him going for takedowns early here and wearing Jairzinho down and taking the power away from his big shots. This is a dog or pass one for me, but I think if JDS stays conscious, he gets his hand raised.
For betting, this is dog or pass for me. For DK, it is more so favorite or pass. I won’t fade JDS, but I think he could win with 60-70 points, whereas I think Jairzinho is getting more than 10x in a win with an early KO. I will get some exposure to JDS, but I don’t want to be burned with a Jairzinho round 1 KO, so I will be near field weight on him this week. I don’t love this fight for cash games but it’s Jairzinho or pass there as well. This fight should have a lot of exposure from the field so may not be a bad idea to go underweight, and then overweight on fights that will go overlooked.
Winner – Junior Dos Santos via Unanimous Decision
Sean O’Malley $9,200 vs Marlon Vera $7,000
Sean O’Malley
Age: 25
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 136
Reach: 72”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Montana
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 2 months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: -280
Sean O’Malley continues his quest for UFC gold. He is coming off a highlight reel knockout and is on the cusp of stardom. O’Malley has a 72’ reach for a 135er to go with knockout power making him a unique fighter for his division. He uses a lot of lateral movement and has a great jab. He can throw the jab from both stances and is constantly switching stances while staying just as fluid and dangerous from both. His right hand is his money shot, and the punch that has one punch power. He will land a jab, then fake a level change, and come over the top with the right hand and knock people clean out with it. He does a great job of following it up with a head kick if his opponents are still standing. He has a nasty pull back counter right hand, very similar to Conor McGregor, and is deadly accurate. He will use unique setups for the right hand as well, such as looking away before he throws it. He has a good uppercut from southpaw position and can catch fighters coming in with it. He has a great kicking game and is very tricky with it. He will start out throwing a lot of spinning kicks to the body and round kicks to the body, and then throw question mark kicks to the head. When he gets his opponents guessing where the kick is going to go is when he will land a spinning back kick to the chin and knock fighters out. He does a great job of throwing a head kick and then exploding with a right hand when he brings his foot back to the ground. He has a nasty spinning backfist into a high kick combination which I love. He has a hands low stance, and can get hit clean at times, but he has great head movement and can slip punches even in the pocket with his hands down. He tends to slow down in round 2 and then get a second wind, but fighters have not been able to capitalize on that yet. He showed a good chin and heart against Terrion Ware, getting beat up in round 2 and coming back strong in round 3. On the feet, he will have the advantage in this matchup, and he is a very fun, dynamic striker to watch.
Sean O’Malley’s grappling is what fighters are going to have to try and exploit. He is good in the clinch actually and has a good foot sweep and body lock takedowns. He has questionable takedown defense, and I have seen him in an amateur fight break and quit to baby punches to the back of the head on the ground. He does seem to attack a lot off his back, and will go for nice triangles, and also has a good armbar. He does a good job of getting butterfly hooks and pushing his opponents off of him. If fighters can pass his guard, he has trouble. He gives up dominant positions and can get finished IMO by a good grappler on the ground. He is extremely calm in the cage, it is quite shocking actually and he has amazing fight IQ. He has never lost and has extreme confidence coming into this matchup. He should look to do what he does, knock this dude out.
Marlon Vera
Age: 27
Height: 5’8”
Weight: 145
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: RVCA
From: Ecudor
UFC Record: 9-5
Fight Matrix: 28
Last Fought: 3 months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +240
Chito Vera is a savage. On the feet, he is constantly going forward walking his opponents down. He has incredible cardio and a hell of a chin. Vera has never been finished in his career. Vera has also finished 14 of his 16 wins. Vera is a stance switcher who can kick effectively from both stances. He has nasty rear leg kicks. He throws nice inside, outside low kicks, front & round kicks to the body, and a brutal head kick. Vera has nasty knees up the middle as well that are very dangerous. In close range, Vera is very good at slipping & ripping while mixing in knees and elbows. If Marlon gets opponents near the cage, he explodes and will throw multi shot combinations going for the kill. His boxing has improved as well since he’s been working with Jason Parillo. Vera has a better jab that he will throw nice combinations to the body & head. His straight-left hand is very long & accurate. Vera also has a nice left hook. He likes to throw jab, left hooks from orthodox, and will throw a lot of lead left hooks & uppercuts. Chito does stand tall and has been susceptible to low kicks and body shots. Vera can be hittable at times and struggles against fighters who can pot shot him. Vera starts slow in a lot of fights & needs time to break his opponents down. He isn’t much of a round winner, but he is always looking for the finishing opportunity. Vera has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Marlon Vera is a super dangerous, opportunistic black belt. When Vera gets his opponents near the fence, he will explode and unload with a barrage of shots. Vera is excellent at mixing in the Thai plum in his punching combinations and landing ruthless knees to the body & head. Vera also is always looking to snap fighters down & snatch up that neck. In his last match with Andre Ewell, Vera tried several standing arm triangles. He also was able to snap down Ewell with a front head lock in the third round, and then finished the fight with brutal ground & pound. Vera isn’t the fighter to use a wrestling heavy game plan. He likes to pressure guys & force them to shoot or catch a submission from standing. Vera can pull guard at times for the sub which loses him rounds. Vera also doesn’t have great takedown defense, but he is tricky off his back. He has a dangerous guard always throwing up armbars & triangles. Most of Vera’s victories are via triangle. I don’t think his guard is extremely high level though, I wouldn’t be surprised if O’Malley was able to control and stay safe on top. Vera does have seven submissions, so you always have to be careful. Marlon Vera is going to have the experience edge here & is riding a wave of momentum. His cardio is top notch, he has the will & heart, now he just has to prove he has the skills to pay the bills.
I have really liked what I saw from O’Malley in his last two fights, but they were both ended in round 1 and Vera is a real step up here. I do think O’Malley is the much more dangerous fighter and the better striker who should be landing the harder shots and more volume. Vera can keep it close on the feet though and I think he could have success in the clinch, as well as on the ground. I think a RNC or a guillotine submission win is the most likely path to victory for Vera, although I do like Suga Sean if he can avoid that. His striking looks legit and much more dangerous than it was before his two-year layoff.
My preferred play is O’Malley. I do like O’Malley to win and I am picking him to win with an early KO, so I like him in all formats. I just think he will be very popular and I don’t know how much leverage I want here if nearly half the field is going to own him. I don’t know what I will do here but I have a feeling I will just go underweight to the fight as a whole but have more O’Malley exposure of the two. I think Vera will be very popular as well and I definitely don’t want leverage there, so I will go half the field or so on him and I would fade him with 20 or less lineups personally. Could burn me but that is a leverage stand I am willing to make. I think this fight will be in ~75% or more of all lineups and I would rather half it closer to 40-50% for me.
Winner – Sean O’Malley via 1st round (T)KO
Stipe Miocic $8,200 vs Daniel Cormier $8,000
Stipe Miocic
Age: 37
Height: 6’3
Weight: 240
Reach: 80”
Gym: Strongstyle Fight Team
From: Ohio
UFC Record: 13-3
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -105
Stipe has very good boxing & a former golden gloves champion. He has an excellent jab that he will double & triple up on. He likes to use the jab to touch his opponents, slip the counter & return with more powerful punches. He is very good at feinting the jab after establishing it to keep his opponent guessing. He has nasty low kicks. He will throw nice one-twos and jab, right hooks. He has a powerful overhand right. He can strike moving backwards, winning the belt that way vs Werdum. He has big power even on the backfoot. Miocic can stand tall & is hittable at times. He was hit a ton vs DC in both fights. He did attack the body very well with left hooks in his last fight & took DC out with the one-two. Stipe has 15 KO’s & has only been finished one time.
Miocic is a good grappler, but not on the level of Cormier. He is a former college wrestler but going to want to be defensive with his wrestling in this match. He did get an early takedown vs Cormier but couldn’t establish top position. Stipe likes to fake takedowns to open up punches. He will feint single legs, and it makes it easier to get them when he commits. He has a nice snatch single & a good double leg. He doesn’t wrestle very often, but when he needs to he will. He is good at driving opponents to the cage with doubles & working from there. In top position, Miocic isn’t amazing. He likes to stay in half guard & do just enough to not get stood up. Stipe does have a nasty KO with ground & pound vs Alistar Overeem. Stipe has good takedown defense. In this fight, he has to move, use his reach & make it a range striking fight. He can’t engage in the clinch or wrestling if he doesn’t have to. I haven’t seen Stipe off his back much at all. Stipe has no submissions & has never been submitted. He has a big cardio edge here in this one.
Daniel Cormier
Age: 41
Height: 5’9
Weight: 235
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: AKA
From: California
UFC Record: 14-2-1
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -115
Cormier has good boxing. he has a very nice jab, and likes to finish combos with leg kicks. He is always faking level changes and lunging into his shots to setup the clinch or get takedowns. He is at his best when he is walking fighters down, and when he gets opponents moving backwards he is almost unstoppable. It is extremely hard to tell if he is going to shoot or strike, and he starts to take over. He doesn’t throw a ton of combinations with his hands & keeps safe. He has a tremendous chin and has only been finished twice by Jon Jones and his opponent Stipe Miocic. Miocic found that body shot in his last fight which was a real game changer. Cormier has big power showing that in their first fight. He has 10 KO/TKO’s in his career.
The former Olympian is one of the best grapplers to ever grace the octagon. His clinch work is great, he probably is most dangerous with his striking from there. He has a nasty uppercut in close and he will also fake like he is grabbing a single collar clinch and throw a big left hook. Miocic has a bad habit of entering & exiting the clinch with his hands low which Cormier exploited him with and knocked him out in the first round. He likes to get double underhooks and land big knees to the body. Cormier’s takedowns are phenomenal. He has a great high crotch single leg, he also has very nice clinch takedowns. He is very heavy on top and the only fighter I have seen stand up from under him is Jon Jones. He likes to move to half guard and will throw big ground & pound. He will look for kimuras and armbars from half guard, and then likes to improve position get to mount and make his opponents give their backs and get a rear naked choke. He got a rear naked choke on Lewis in their match. Cormier has amazing cardio and pushes an incredible pace. He threw an obscene amount of volume on the feet in the last fight with Stipe & did fatigue a bit. He has 5 submissions, and never been submitted himself.
I am pumped for this one and I hope it is as exciting as their last fight where they landed over 300 total significant strikes. That is not a stat you will see often in the Heavyweight division, but these guys are the best there is, and this should be fun as long as it lasts. DC won their 1st fight with a round 1 knockout and Stipe won the 2nd with a 4th round KO. DC did outland Stipe by almost 100 punches in that 2nd fight and was up on all the judges’ scorecards going into round 4. The body shots from Stipe really turned the fight around and led to the knockout. I think Stipe is probably still more likely to win this fight by knockout, but I think DC is more likely to win on the scorecards or possibly a submission. It is hard to call this fight, but I would slightly favor DC and I will pick him to retire as the Heavyweight champion of the world.
All-in. Stack in cash. Even stack in GPPs before you fade either side of this fight. If you are fading this fight you are hoping for a draw or a NC, other than that, I don’t see how the winner isn’t on the optimal lineup. I would like the idea of stacking this in GPPs, but I think it will be too popular because of their last fight where they combined for 219 total points. DC had 102 in a 4th round loss and Miocic had 117 after his knockdown and 4th round KO bonus. I think the winner will score over 100 again here and with their mid-range salaries that will lock them into the winning lineup. My preferred play is going to be DC though. I like that he is cheaper, and I am picking him to get the win here. I will probably be around 65/35 in favor of DC I would think.
Winner – Daniel Cormier via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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