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The Sway Bar: Top NASCAR Plays, Fades and Values for Kansas

Whats up y’all – Brady Miller here. Some of you may recognize me as the author of the Sway Bar from 2017-2019, making my humble return to share some thoughts I have on this weeks cup race at Kansas. Kansas represents one of the better 1.5 mile tracks on the circuit, with multiple grooves that allows good cars to be good. Track position isn’t shouldnt be as important, as passing is usually not as tough as other 1.5 milers.

 

May 11, 2019; Kansas City, KS, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) races Clint Bowyer (14) during the Digital Ally 400 at Kansas Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

 

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Top Plays

Kevin Harvick – Exciting…I know. This has all the makings of complete domination by Harvick. Harvick will start P1 and will likely lead most of the first stage, if not most of the race. I actually thought his price would be a little higher. He will be HUGELY chalky.

Erik Jones – Jones is really starting to find his stride in 2020, and Kansas should provide the backdrop for one of his best performances of the year. Kansas gave Erik fits at the start of his career, but he has rattled off four straight top tens since. He starts 21st, but I can’t imagine he is kept out of the top ten for long. I doubt he leads, but a top five isn’t out of the question.

Chase Elliott – The Chevs have been on and off this year, but the one constant has been Chase. He has finished top 5 four of the last five trips to Kansas, and his 1.5 mile cars are better than ever. He starts 11th, which gives us lots of differential potential.

Tyler Reddick – Reddick is putting together one of the most impressive rookie seasons in recent memory, and for the first time since Daytona – he gets to tackle a track he has cup experience at. Last year, in just his second cup start (and his first at a non-plate track), Reddick turned in an incredible top ten run for an RCR team that was struggling at that point in time. RCR is stronger than that now, and Reddick is much more comfortable in these cars. He starts 23rd and is a legitimate top seven threat.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney struggled at Kansas last year, but given his performances over the last month it seems like a bad idea to not include him in your action. He rolls off fourth, so its a bit boom or bust – but it’s a nice pivot of Harvick. His 2020 1.5 mile driver rating is second only to Harvick – and his cars fire off so well. Harvick has been more of a long run threat this year, so there is a world where Blaney (or Logano, really) grabs the lead in the first stage.

Fades

I think the following are bottom tier plays are this week

Reed Sorenson
JJ Yeley
Brennan Poole
BJ McLeod
Timmy Hill
Joey Gase
Josh Bilicki
Garrett Smithley
Quin Houff

Value Plays

Clint Bowyer – Clint will tackle his home track from the 19th starting position and is poised to have a monster day. Of course, he has A+ equipment, but Kansas also represents one of his best tracks. Clint has finished 19th or better in his last 6 attempts at Kansas, with half of those being top tens.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr – RSJ has become a bit of a meme in the NASCAR world, but don’t let that fool you. Stenhouse is a tremendous wheelman whose supreme aggression makes him a boom or bust threat week to week. Kansas is a great track for him and he starts 25th. At $7000, he doesnt have to do much to make hay this weekend.

Ryan Preece – Preece has been absolutely terrible the last month, finding trouble every time he hits the track. Bad luck aside, he is still an elite, if not a bit risky, play this weekend. He starts 35th in what is easily a top 25 car (with top 20 potential). At $5800, Preece scores 30 without much effort. Kansas has been one of his more impressive tracks in his short cup career.

Ty Dillon – Ty will start right beside Preece in 36th. He will cost you $700 more, and will be piloting similar equipment. I am a little more excited about Preece – but Ty is a tremendous option as well.

Other Notables

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth has been miserable this year, and they keep pricing him down. One of these days he is going to break through and break a slate – I just can’t prove it will be this week. Worth a small look.

Alex Bowman – Bowman was incredibly strong at this track last year, and if he shows up with a car akin to what he had earlier this year he can easily dominate this race. Its a risky play, but he should be lower owned and I think there is a situation where he pays off in a big way.

Austin Dillon – Dillon probably wont be a threat to win again this week, but he is still a decent play. Dillon has been super good on 1.5 mile tracks this year (average finish of 10th). He starts 16th, and a top ten will score well.

So there you have it. Make sure you check out the Cheat Sheet as well! Good luck and stay cashing.