This week, DFS PGA stops in Minnesota at TPC Twin Cities for the 3M Open. Fantasy golf advice for Draftkings and Fanduel starts with a course preview and quick statistical breakdown. Toss in a few key players to watch, and position yourself to run deep in some huge DFS contests!
Follow Choppodongand DFS Army on Twitter through the week, but also look for these upcoming deeper dives into strategy and fantasy golf play:
– PGA Research Station (every key stat in one place, showdowns included!)
– Travelers Domination Station Optimizer (Ownership projections and a FREE Setup Tutorial for Lineup Building)
– Time-saving Fantasy Golf Cheatsheets (our gurus do the heavy lifting with detailed notations, confidence ratings, and both core plays and gpp leverage plays)
– Chalk Donkey Complete Course Breakdown and Player Pivots (due later in week)
– Hard-hitting Strategy Discussion for VIPs via our golf chat rooms where coaches answer member questions all week long!
Jun 28, 2020; Cromwell, Connecticut, USA; Dustin Johnson prepares to play his shot from the lake on the 15th hole during the final round of the Travelers Championship golf tournament at TPC River Highlands. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
TPC Twin Cities DFS PGA at a Glance
2019 Champion – Matt Wolff (-21)
Expect a birdie fest this week as TPC Twin Cities yielded tons last year. And, when hosting the Champions Tour, this course was among the easiest on that tour, too. Lengthened from 7100 yards for the seniors back to 7400+ for the young bucks, the course isn’t short. But, we still tend to see birdies here if last year, and history, are any indicator.
The field won’t be a strong as last week, obviously, but we do still get to see some great players. Brooks Koepka is really feeling some urgency to make the playoffs this year. Dustin Johnson (Vegas odds favorite to win currently) is also scheduled to tee it up. And, we also see the return of Tommy Fleetwood for the first time since the pandemic shook things up in March. Tony Finau, Paul Casey, and Bubba Watson provide some other names that might catch the casual ear. 156 players will grip and rip with 65 (and ties) making the cut after Friday’s play concludes.
Yes, we are in the “Land of 10,000 Lakes,” and we will be seeing a lot of water….a lot. 27 water hazards dot this track. This will set up as a ball strikers course, yet again. But, the hot putter will almost always factor in. A big key to this week will be perfection….or the pursuit of it. With so many player predicted to “go low,” we will need to avoid the random mishaps like bounces into water. An ill-timed bogey will absolutely wreck a week. You most likely won’t recover from even a small step backwards as so many in this field will just keep charging forward. GPP players should have a lot of fun this week focusing on the player types that can get hot and run with it for longer stretches.
Every par 5 here can generate eagles. However, playing the long par 3s well will likely be a thing. Also, a couple par 4s measure over 500 yards, and another handful get out past 450. So, those longer approaches will round out those that can reach the par 5s in two for an advantage. Overall, ball striking and a well-rounded game with length seem to be the player type to look into.
Key Statistics for Daily Fantasy Golf: 3M Open
Again, with little course history, there aren’t a lot of true “key stats” to put all our focus into. However, we are still going to focus a little more on stats like…
- Strokes Gained – Tee to Green
- Strokes Gained – Approach
- Birdie or Better %
- Bogey Avoidance – Again, when the field is set to go low, bogeys can kill you. Perfection is going to be key here most likely and every bogey is likely to punish like a two-shot-swing each and every time.
All of these key stats will be featured in one place: Our PGA Research Station! Along with odds drifts, player salaries and projections, these stats (and more) will guide your research in a profitable direction. Here is a sample of a recent week on the PGA Tour.
This graphic is literally just the tip of the iceberg. Key stats like Strokes Gained, and many tabs covering Showdown Tools, Field Ranker, and a Tournament Comparison page all team up to give you everything you could possibly need to build that winning DFS lineup!
A Few Early PGA Players to Watch
Brooks Koepka – A lot of noise surfaced centering on his knee at The Memorial. He doesn’t look right to a lot of us. I suspect his ownership to drop off a lot, but I don’t know that I can trust the leverage he can bring if he decides he feels better and wakes up. High risk pick for sure.
Dustin Johnson – Shooting back to back 80s just make one want to puke in his/her shoe. But, DJ never seems bothered by such things. Coming in leading the Vegas win odds is interesting. And, as with the Travelers, he shows he can win at any time on any course even when you least expect it. Stranger things have happened.
Tommy Fleetwood – First time back is a thing this year. And, we have seen few really show well in that first event. Do you have the courage to take a normally popular player when the upside might be a little limited and the downside quite a bit more likely? I’m not calling for a missed cut here. I’m saying your leverage may be greater in fading this guy no matter how much you like him.
Tony Finau – Wow, it looked like he was going to cruise to victory after the birdie on the 11th Saturday. Then, the wheels came off like I haven’t seen on a 3rd graders bicycle in a long time. It was hard to watch and it pissed a lot of people off, too. These things tend to really hit a player’s ownership hard. Again, do you have the courage to go back to the well here? Have you lost faith?
Of course, many other players will emerge and make a lot of sense this week. But, that is where our coaching comes in. Our discussions will be lively and interactive all week long and through the showdowns across all four rounds. Let’s talk cash games a little lower in the article….
As the week pops more data and more expert opinion, our PGA DFS Cheatsheets will save you tons of time. No longer will you need to dive deeper into numbers if your schedule won’t allow. Simply wait for our most accurate coaches (3rd party ranked) to drop their notes and pivots on this week’s key plays!
Notes regarding players don’t get any more detailed. Use your own thoughts in conjunction with our proprietary star-ratings to build confidence and build winners! You can now play any sport competitively just by reading our cheatsheets and using our optimizer. Maybe a tweak or two of your own, and you might wind up a big winner like ccanelho! Can you imagine the feeling of winning $100,000 with minimal research? It’s definitely possible here. See our Track Record of over 20 winners of $100,000+ and even an NFL $1,000,000 winner in BClinks last season!!
Possible DFS Cash Game Plays for the 3M Open…
I’m going to introduce you to a metric called the “Double 100s.” I won’t go into detail where it comes from yet, but I personally love creating very simple explanations for statistics that just make sense. They are often overlooked by the masses, and I think I’ve found another one. If you don’t know me in this area, I also created KScore for MLB, OBISO for MLB, BS+SOG for NHL, and a couple of other sliding scale metrics showing a player doesn’t have to be good in a lot of areas to be useful for DFS purposes. He can be rather poor in one area as long as another area really, really makes up for it. I encourage you to look these up inside our DFS Army community articles….or simply ask me in the forums. I’d be happy to show you why they are so beneficial….and simple to follow.
Here are the “Double 100s” Currently in this week’s field. They have shown consistency over two separate sample sizes of time. And, they won’t change a lot week to week. But, one bad week, and these guys need to work hard to regain favor in this metric. So, they will change a little. (We will also update this in Slack upon request as names might change due to Covid19 or other unforeseen news.)
Current Double 100s for 3M Open
- Doc Redman (8700 DK)
- Harris English (9000 DK)
- Lucas Glover (9400 DK)
- Adam Long (7000 DK)
If building cash lineups with some of the deeper value plays off the “Double 100s” list, I’d keep it capped at about two of them. Playing a couple of them do bring consistency, but there isn’t a lot of upside for deep finishers that can really make your week in cash games. If you talk with me in our coaching forums, I’ll openly explain I like players with safety…..but also upside. This does add a little more risk, but it’s also how you sweep your head-to-heads, win 3man and 5man leagues, and can even give yourself a stronger chance in some smaller contestant tournaments that will really give your ROI the boost it may need to combat the volatility inherent in DFS PGA.
However, the only way to put all these above tools to work for you, and add our coaching guidance, is to become a VIP of our community. For one price, we put every sport, every site, every tool, and access to every coach in the palm of your hands. If fact, you can even try us FREE for 30 DAYS!! There is no commitment whatsoever. If you aren’t eligible for the free trials, simply use discount code DFSARMY for a 20% savings each and every month you take advantage of our tools and coaching.
As a new VIP, I would recommend starting with our tutorials page. And, if you love DFS PGA Showdowns, I’d start with Josh’s PGA-specific exploitation of the showdown format for any skill level! I hope to see you on the inside!!