NASCAR Calming the Chaos 7/12/20 – Kentucky

Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos!  We head to Kentucky this week, where we’ll get back to the basics with a 1.5-mile track.  There’s a lot to talk about here, so get yourself a snack and get ready to do some reading!

As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet.  If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.

Kentucky Speedway

As I mentioned, we’re back with a 1.5-mile track this week.  While most of them can be looked at as useful information to cross reference (sans maybe Homestead-Miami since it’s a bit different), I especially like Kansas and Las Vegas to compare to Kentucky.  With the change to a 1.5-mile track, we’ll need to switch gears once again, as I expect things to turn out a bit differently than what we’ve been used to these last couple of weeks.  That of course directly ties into how we should approach this race, so let’s get into all of that now.

A welcomed change of pace

For the last few races, we could simply plug in Harvick and/or Hamlin and go from there.  While those two are certainly in play here, do remember that Pocono and Indianapolis were two tracks where we expected them to perform so well at.  I’m not saying that you can’t play them here, but don’t forget that there will be other drivers that can put up a fight here, and I do expect we’ll see at least one dominator emerge without an H starting their last name.

Speaking of which, with 267 laps to go around, we can look at two dominators in all formats on both sites.  A balanced lineup approach will suite most lineups well here.  Since there aren’t quite as many strong differential plays, we could even look at using three dominators (DraftKings only) in GPP, and going the stars & scrubs approach there.  Of course, a solo dominator is always a possibility, but I’d only give that about a 5-10% chance of happening.

Aside from those drivers, our cheaper drivers change up a little bit as well, so don’t feel like you have to use the same ones you were these past few races.  We’ll get to them, but for now, let’s start the discussion with our dominators.

The Field

Hybrids

We get some hybrids this week, one I’ve already mentioned; Hamlin and Bowyer, though I’d say you could probably go ahead and include Blaney here as well.  They’ll be strong options to consider, as all three of them have top-5 upside and could also see 20-40+ lead laps.  They’ll be strong options on both sites, and I initially like all of them for both cash games and GPP alike, but be sure to check the coach’s cheat sheet for the final verdict there.

In 2018, Blaney finished 2nd with an average running position of 4th place.  In 2019, Bowyer led 40 laps and since he’s been in the #14, his average finish has been 10.3.  If you aren’t playing them in cash, definitely play them in GPP, as they have plenty of upside.

If you’re looking to fade some chalk for GPP leverage, you could consider fading Hamlin as he hasn’t dominated here since 2012 and carries a lifetime average finish of 14.89.  That’s certainly not terrible for other drivers, but when you consider price, ownership, and the fact that he’s not immune to a bad race here and there, it’s not a bad time to pivot elsewhere.

Dominators

More laps means more dominators, and that also means more typing/reading.  You were warned!

Kyle Busch gets the pole, and although he hasn’t quite had his “dominant Kyle Busch” performance yet this season (except maybe at Bristol), I do think this will be a great chance for him to get things going.  While I do think these races without practices are hurting him, he has so much experience at these 1.5-mile tracks that I don’t think it’ll hurt him quite as much this time.  I don’t see him being all that popular, so we probably don’t need him in cash games, but definitely have exposure here in GPP.  He can be used either as a primary or solo dominator.  Fun fact, in 5 of the last 6 races at Kentucky, Kyle Busch has averaged 103.5 laps led per race with an average finish of 4.67.  

After that, Harvick is an obvious choice here with how good he’s been as of late, but I wouldn’t mind calling for a fade here in GPP.  My reasoning is that he’s only dominated here once in his career and that was back in 2016 (remember, we fully expected him to put on a clinic at Pocono/Indianapolis).  Obviously that doesn’t mean he can’t dominate now, but I expect people to be all over him (I’ve seen some other sites projecting him upwards of 90 DKFP).  For his price and starting position, he MUST dominate in order to pay off, and there’s a good enough chance that we see other drivers do it that I don’t think a fade here is unwarranted if you’re looking to leverage the field.  If he sees a lot of ownership but just camps out somewhere between 2nd and 8th all day, he’s going to tank a lot of lineups in the process.

So, who are some strong options to consider instead?  Well, don’t forget the King of 1.-5 mile tracks, our buddy Truex.  He’s been nice and quiet lately, which should help keep his ownership down, but don’t forget he led 65 laps at Atlanta and 87 at Charlotte earlier this season.  As for Kentucky, he led 152 and 174 laps here in 2018/2019.  Granted, that was with Pearn and the #78, but him leading a chunk at two other 1.5-mile tracks gives me faith that he could find 100+ lead laps here.  If he does find the lead, I expect him to stay there for a long time, but starting 9th means he likely won’t get the early lead.  With that in mind, I like him as either a secondary or solo dominator (in the event whoever leads the first portion of the race winds up being a non-factor).

Another strong option is Bowman.  Yes, I know his history here is absolute garbage, but that will only help to keep his ownership down some too.  Remember that he’s seemingly taken a page out of Truex’s book and has put on some very strong showings at random 1.5-mile tracks (led 164 and 55 at Charlotte this season, as well as 63 at Kansas and 88 (hehe) at Chicago last season).  He’s very cheap for the upside he has, and I like him as a secondary dominator option.

Logano is another option with him starting 2nd, and he’s led laps at all four other similar 1.5-mile races this season (54 at Las Vegas, 26 and 42 at Charlotte, and 10 at Atlanta…and for fun, 27 at Homestead-Miami).  If he can grab the early lead (and hold it during the competition caution), I could see him putting up 50-100+ lead laps here with a top-5 finish (1st, 13, 6th, and 10th were his finishes at those mentioned earlier).  While I do see him as a direct pivot to Kyle Busch in most cases, I don’t hate the idea of actually stacking them together (in GPP), because I could see them splitting 150-250 lead laps and fighting for the win at the end.

Finally, Keselowski is of course always in play at these races, and while he hasn’t yet had a big run at a 1.5-mile track yet this season (he has at some other tracks), I know it’s coming, and there’s no reason why it couldn’t be here.  He’s priced nicely and could see a healthy chunk of laps; when he’s dominated here in the past, he’s seen anywhere from 38 to 199 laps led, so he has just as much upside as anybody else does.  Another strong GPP option!

Okay, one more quick mention.  Almirola starts close to the front, and while I don’t think it’s super likely that he will dominate here, he looked really good these last few races and he did lead 70 laps at Chicago in 2018 along with 36 at Atlanta and 62 at Texas last year.  It’s not a big chance, but it’s a chance, so be sure to sprinkle him around some, as he won’t see much ownership but could break the slate again.

Studs / value studs

This group is pretty stacked, so that means more reading.  Don’t worry, the quick recap is on the bottom if you don’t like reading all of my ramblings!

Same ol’ same ol’ here with Bell.  You know the story by now and it’s the same again this week – starts near the end but has a top-20 floor with a top-10 ceiling.  Pretty good chance he winds up in the winning lineup again.

Pocono was unfortunate, but Reddick’s 8th place finish at Indianapolis should tell you he’s still legit, and like I’ve said, he’s considered a top-10 threat at every race until further notice.  That’s no different here, and him starting 24th makes it that much sweeter.  Easily one of, if not the, best plays on the entire slate!

Jones is also a great option yet again.  In three races here, he’s got an average finish of 5.33 and average rating of 98.3 (if you don’t know what that means, it’s pretty darn good for somebody who hasn’t led laps here).  Another top-5 likely puts him in the winning lineup at his price and starting position, especially if Bell doesn’t come through.

Johnson used to do very well here – from 2011-2015 he always finished in the top-10, but as he went through his season-long struggles these last few years, he put up some poor finishes.  Fortunately he’s turned things around, so I think there’s a good chance he could see a top-10 finish this time.  Byron is roughly in the same boat, just with fewer races under his belt.  I’d be inclined to take them together whenever possible, because if one of them is having a great race, chances are there other one is too.  You could even stack them with Bowman (or Elliott, to a lesser degree) for a 3-man Hendrick stack.  I’d probably keep Johnson/Byron in GPP due to them being a tad inconsistent.

Kenseth has similar history (2011-2016 saw only top-10s here), and with him turning it up at Pocono/Indianapolis, I could see him grabbing another top-10 here as well.  He’s every bit as good as, maybe slightly better than, Johnson/Byron.

Last year’s winner, Kurt isn’t in a very good spot this time around, but could still sneak towards the front and steal some lead laps here and there.  He’s not a huge play, but worth having exposure to all the same.  If you’re feeling really brave, you could replace a dominator with him, as he does have 50+ lead lap upside (secondary dominator only).

For our cheaper options, once again Custer and Preece lead the way with their top-20/15/10 upside.  They have similar floors, but Custer undoubtedly has the higher ceiling.  They start right there with Bell, and while they might not have quite the same upside as he does, they could just as easily wind up in the winning lineup (possibly together, especially if Bell has a mediocre finish).  Be sure to have plenty of GPP exposure here, and feel free to take them in cash, too.

Newman and Buescher finished 9th and 10th here last year, and they are both severely underpriced considering their finishing position upside.  I’d probably save them both for GPP, all things considered, but don’t auto-fade Buescher on DraftKings just because he starts so high.  Yes, it’s risky, but another top-10 could put him in the winning lineup due to how cheap he is.  Both are solid GPP options on FanDuel, too.

Austin has bad history here but he’s good for the random top-10 at these races, so feel free to sprinkle him around as well.  And finally, Stenhouse is our favorite “all or nothing” play.  He’s got a chance to finish in the top-10 somewhere, but has an equal chance to crash on lap 1.  GPP only with these two.

Value / punts

Whew…well, good news is we’re winding down!

McDowell has been hot as of late, and while I don’t see him contending for another top-10, I don’t see why a top-20 should be out of the question (a top-15 is not impossible).  I don’t mind taking him in cash, but definitely have GPP exposure to him either way.  His obvious pivot would be Ty Dillon, who I don’t think has nearly as much upside.  I think a top-25 or so would be more realistic, rather than the upside he had at Pocono/Indianapolis, but get at least some exposure here in case I’m wrong.

The pivots I like more would be LaJoie and Nemechek, who had some impressive finishes that I would like to point out.  LaJoie finished 16th at Las Vegas, while Nemechek finished 16th and 13th at the Charlotte races.  A finish like that easily puts them in the winning lineup, and since they’re both roughly the same play here, be sure to get exposure to both of them, as they have a good shot of bringing home some money for somebody!

And finally, the punts.  There are three of them I don’t mind here; Yeley/Gase and Hill, and I like them roughly in that order (Yeley finished 28th at Las Vegas, Gase finished 31st there, and Hill starts last and can finish a race, giving him some upside if a lot of people DNF).  I’d probably save them for GPP in lineups where you’re taking the stars & scrubs approach (as in be sure you’re cramming in as much upside as possible if you take one of these guys).

Quick recap

Dominators (1-3 DK (2 for most lineups), 1-2 FD)

• Primary – Kyle Busch, Logano, Harvick
• Secondary – Logano, Truex, Harvick, Bowman/Keselowski
• Secondary pivots – Elliott, Almirola, Kurt
• Solo – Kyle Busch, Logano, Truex
• Hybrids (mix & match with anybody) – Hamlin, Bowyer, Blaney

Studs (dominator stacking feature option)

• Take 1-3 per lineup: Bell, Reddick, Jones, Johnson/Byron/Kenseth

Value studs (dominator stacking feature option)

• Take 1-3 per lineup: Custer, Preece, Newman, Buescher, Austin/Stenhouse

Value drivers 

• Take 1-2 per lineup: McDowell, LaJoie/Nemechek, Ty

Punts (for high upside stars & scrubs lineups, limit one per lineup)

• Yeley/Gase, Hill

Closing thoughts

I may have gotten a little carried away with this one, but it just stresses how important it is to remember that things change quickly week to week, and this is one of those times where it could pay to remember that.  Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!