BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 5 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card on Fight Island that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $15 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Chris Gutierrez $9,200 vs Cody Durden $7,000
Chris Gutierrez
Age: 29
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Factory X
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 49
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -350
Chris Gutierrez has found his footing in the UFC & had the best performance of his career his last time out. Gutierrez finished Vince Morales with some brutal low kicks. He has won three fights in a row & is looking to build up some momentum. He is getting a tough prospect in the debuting Cody Durden. Gutierrez is a good striker. He has very good defensive movement & likes to fight on the counter. He has nice round & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw nice check left hooks & one-twos. He is good at throwing the left hook moving backwards. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. He will blitz forward with straight punches to close the distance. He has a nice front leg round kick to the head. He has a very nice spinning backfist. He will throw nice spinning back kicks to the body & head. Gutierrez is very fast & is always feinting. He keeps fighters off balance & is very hard to read on the feet. He can get backed to the cage & allows opponents to control the center at times. He has 7 career KO/TKO’s & good durability never being finished by strikes.
Gutierrez is an average grappler. He is a questionable defensive wrestler & doesn’t wrestle offensively. He is solid in the clinch. He will look for hard knees to the body. He can be taken down, but he has solid get-ups. He has been out grappled to losses vs fighters such as Timur Valiev & Jerrod Sanders. He also has a victory over Timur Valiev. He will use butterfly hooks, or even give his back & scramble to his feet. He does have nice armbars & triangles. He is able to throw up very quick armbars & uses submissions to scramble back to his feet. He will roll for leg locks. He has one career submission via rear naked choke. He has been submitted one time.
Cody Durden
Age: 29
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: American Top Team Atlanta
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 312
Last Fought: 2 Weeks
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: +290
Cody Durden took the call on short notice & secured his spot in the UFC. He is currently riding a seven-fight win streak & has won some fights in other sports as well. He is fresh off a destruction of John Sweeney just two weeks ago, so he should be in shape, confident & ready. Cody Durden is an okay striker. He has good forward pressure & switches stances well. He has some boxing & kickboxing matches. Durden is very aggressive. He has a nice jab to the body and head. He will close the distance with straights & attack the body with big hooks. He throws some nice hooks & uppercuts inside. He has nice low leg kicks. He is always coming forward, staying in his opponent’s face & not giving them a chance to breathe. He will throw some spins & attacks like that to close the distance. In this fight I see him trying to wrestle the entire time. Durden can crack but he’s not on the level technically of a guy like Gutierrez. Durden has five career KO/TKO’s mostly on the ground.
Cody Durden is mainly a grappler. He has very good wrestling. He will shoot nice single & double legs. He is very good at exchanging a bit to keep fighters guessing & then ducking under for the level change. He is strong in the clinch. He is explosive with his shots & going to be able to get takedowns at the UFC level. Durden on top is very aggressive & always looking to pass & throw ground & pound. He has pretty good control, but his submission defense is very questionable. He is a back taker, & when he takes it he finishes the fight. He has great rear nakeds & ground & pound from the back mount. Durden leaves his neck out there to get guillotined. He can be swept & threatened with submissions when he’s on bottom. He does have good scrambling ability & can standup from bottom well. Durden has five submissions but isn’t great with the Jiu-Jitsu. Durden was submitted by rear naked choke in 2018 against a 12-13 fighter. He trains at ATT Atlanta which has good Jiu-Jitsu players like Roan Carneiro so that should be improving. Cody looks like a beast & a very aggressive, tough fighter.
Gutierrez is coming off a dominating performance a few weeks ago where he chopped his opponents leg down so hard he couldn’t stand anymore, & he was barely touched himself. That recency bias, plus Durden taking this fight on a weeks’ notice is what is making Gutierrez a huge favorite here. I think that line is off though. Durden is a good wrestler & aside from the big kicking edge for Gutierrez, I think he can hang on the feet as well. The leg kicks are the big worry here of course, but they are almost the only worry at the same time. I think Durden has a big edge on the mat here & could finish with a sub or ground & pound. I would favor Gutierrez on the feet but once he lands a few legs kicks I don’t see Durden wanting to stand much longer & he should look to wrestle early & often here. I am going to take the underdog to get the upset in his debut & I think he does it with a wrestling heavy game plan.
Durden is my preferred play here and probably my favorite underdog play on the slate. He is the cheapest guy on the slate and I think he is more live than Vegas does, but if he wins it should come through grappling. For cash games, I would just lock him in since he is so cheap. It allows me to pay up for favorites I like, and I don’t see Durden getting blown out of the water, so I think he carries a decent floor for his price as well. I will also be overweight on him in GPPs, but I am getting the feeling he will be popular, so I won’t go crazy with my ownership and I will mostly mix underdogs around with a core of favorites I want to target. Gutierrez is a fade for me, however, I might get one lineup just because I have been burned too many times right out of the gate and it happened the last time he fought when he was the curtain jerker and got the leg kick finish. Aside from that fear, he would be a full fade for me in all formats.
Winner – Cody Durden via 2nd round Submission
Timur Valiev $8,400 vs Jamall Emmers $7,800
Timur Valiev
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 68”
Gym: Nick Catone MMA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -165
Timur Valiev is finally making his UFC debut after a great career outside the promotion. Valiev has compiled a record of 16-2 & has always been regarded as one of the best fighters outside the UFC. Valiev lost his MMA debut, but since then has gone 16-1. His one loss was a split decision to UFC fighter Chris Gutierrez which he revenged. He was able to get a win over Gutierrez as well as many other high-level guys. Valiev is a pretty good striker. He is very athletic, light on his feet & has great blitz attacks. He likes to throw a lot of kicks on the outside; Inside, outside, low kicks, round kicks to the body & head. Valiev has very fast, straight punch combos. He likes to go to the body with the straight & then go upstairs with hooks. Valiev slips & rips very well. He will dig to the body with hooks & catch nice, check left hooks to the head. He can pull counter with straights. He throws a lot of nice spins & flying knees. Valiev does play with his hands down. That has caused him issues in the past. In the pocket, he is hittable & if fighters meet him in the middle with a shot they can hurt him. I have seen him dropped in fights before. Valiev has yet to be finished though. Valiev has six KO/TKO’s.
Timur Valiev is a high-level Dagestani wrestler. He has great level changes. He sets them up with the hands & feints. He will run through double legs very well. He has great takedowns trips & throws from the clinch. When he gets on top, Valiev likes to take the back, & has good control. He is good at getting the front head lock position, draining his opponent’s cardio, & breaking them. Valiev only has two submissions & is more a control fighter. I have seen Valiev taken down, but his takedown & scrambling ability is elite. Valiev has a very fun style to watch. He’s aggressive, has great cardio & is a flashy guy. He should be a great addition to the division.
Jamall Emmers
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: Pinnacle MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 101
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +145
Jamall Emmers is making his second UFC appearance after a controversial loss in March. Emmers lost a split decision to Giga Chikadze in which I thought he won. He now is making the drop down to 135 lbs for the first time in his career. I’m not sure how I feel about that, as he is already 30 years old. If Emmers can make the weight safely he will be a huge BW. Emmers is very fast & athletic. He has great movement & likes to stalk his opponents. He has great fakes, feints, & is lightning fast. He makes it hard for opponents to know when he’s coming due to all the feints & is able to control distance very well. Emmers has great head movement & is good at just sliding out of the way of punches & kicks. Emmers has a very educated right hand. His straight-right hand comes with zero tell & extremely straight & sharp. He will slip & rip with that shot very effectively. Emmers will throw nice jabs & one-twos occasionally also. He will constantly pick & pull while pressuring & walking fighters down. He will mix in some uppercuts, overhands & hooks, but he mainly uses jabs & straights. Emmers has excellent low kicks & will throw some occasional spinning kicks. Kicks can get Emmers in trouble at times as he can throw them without setting them up. He also can get countered as he exits straight backwards occasionally. He floats his chin & can get clipped clean. He definitely is much better when he is going forward. His footwork is very good, but he needs to improve exiting with an angle after landing punches. Emmers has been getting more & more confident with his striking though & has three of his last four wins by TKO. His last win he earned a submission, he set that up by beating up his opponent standing. Emmers keeps a deliberate pace on opponents, walks them down & breaks them. Emmers does have a bit of a weak chin. He has been finished by strikes twice in his career.
Jamall Emmers is a strong grappler which makes this fight very interesting. He has been training with Darrion Caldwell, a very good fighter & wrestler. Emmers is a former college wrestler, & just very slippery & explosive. He is excellent at using his striking to set up entries into double legs & body locks. He is very good at getting inside, pushing opponents to the fence, controlling & winning that way. I definitely see the game plan in this matchup to take Timur down. Emmers was able to defeat Sandhagen with that type of game plan. In top position, Emmers is more about control & embracing the grind. He will land short shots, drain the clock, & try to stay connected & hit mat returns when opponents stand up. In his last win, he did hit a slick transition into an arm triangle & choked his opponent unconscious. I haven’t seen Emmers really get shot in on much, but the few times I have he seems like a cat. He is one of those guys who will get taken down but will immediately scramble back up. I feel his takedown defense & get-up games are probably top notch. He seems to be entering his prime now & has a lot of confidence. Emmers has only 3 submissions in his career though. He has been submitted one time early in his career. Emmers has excellent cardio & is a supreme athlete.
Valiev is making his UFC debut here & he is pretty hyped up. He is well-rounded, dangerous, & probably has the edge everywhere here except size & maybe wrestling. I do like Emmers’ wrestling though & think he could use it as his path to victory here, but I can’t trust him to go out there with a smart game plan. I think he can win this fight, but I have to lean with Valiev here because he has more ways to win & Emmers doesn’t look to wrestle as much as he should in fights, so I think Valiev wins with his striking.
This fight doesn’t interest me a lot, but I also wouldn’t X either side out of my player pool. Both guys are in play because they are mid-ranged, and they could both land multiple takedowns maybe. I think a KO is in play for them both as well. I just think this could also be a very close fight where the winner doesn’t score 10x in a decision. I have no idea what I will do with this fight, but I won’t be starting any lineups here. It would be more of a last spot in my lineup thing based on who fits if I am using this fight. I would guess I have 10-15% of both sides and I think the ceiling is on the Valiev side with the KO potential and the value is on the underdog side with the upset potential.
Winner – Timur Valiev via Unanimous Decision
Markus Perez $8,500 vs Eric Spicely $7,700
Markus Perez
Age: 30
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 105
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -210
Markus Perez just can’t seem to find consistency in the UFC. He has traded wins & losses since entering the promotion. Perez lost his last fight, so he is due for a victory here. Perez was defeated by unanimous decision against Wellington Turman in November. He is a fun, flashy fighter who likes to be a show man in the cage, using crazy techniques, taunting, & showing a lot of emotion. Perez likes to fight on the outside & use a lot of kicks. He will throw rear leg body kicks & occasionally go to the head. His left body kick is nasty & is going to cause a lot of issues for Spicely in my opinion. Perez will throw front kicks to the body & head. He will switch stances & has a nice straight-left & straight-right hand. His straight-left hand is probably better & he spends more time in southpaw. He has a decent jab, left hook combination, & will feint the jab & throw an overhand left combination. Perez has nice lead elbows & step-in knees to the body. Perez throws a lot of wild techniques, such as spinning back elbows & round kicks to the body into spinning heel kicks to the head. He will throw up elbows into spinning back elbows. He is at his best when he gets confident & will get in the pocket & slip & rip. He allows fighters to push him back as well & can almost look like he is running away at times. His awkward striking puts him off balance & in bad positions where he could be countered. He will invite a war when he knows he’s behind & try to steal the fight. Perez has 3 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has a good chin & is a wild man who has never been finished in his career.
Perez is an opportunistic grappler & will jump on submissions. In the clinch, he can be outmuscled & controlled on the cage, but he did show that if he can circle to the back he has nice slam takedowns. He is improving with his wrestling a lot & it’s pretty evident. He will even pull guard & attack with leg locks to create sweeps. He will attack with a kimura from standing position as well to counter takedown attempts. He likes to try to hit switches & take the back to counter takedown attempts as well & was able to do that & take the back of Ian Heinisch. He eventually got an arm triangle from bottom which is not something you see a lot in that match. He does a good job of getting front chokes such as darces & Peruvian neck ties & he has a good squeeze. He can be taken down & he was controlled easily by Eryk Anders. If fighters can pass his guard, he doesn’t have a great get-up game & will just lay on his back. Perez is coming off a nice submission victory. He hurt Hernandez on the feet & then locked up an anaconda. Maluko has 6 career submissions.
Eric Spicely
Age: 33
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Rhode Island
UFC Record: 2-5
Fight Matrix: 84
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +175
Eric Spicely was able to work his way back to the UFC after being cut in 2018. He didn’t get the win in his return but had a good performance on short notice vs Deron Winn. Spicely is a strange fighter. He has had limited success in the UFC but has some high-level victories. As a striker, Spicely is not good. He has a decent jab & needs to try to stay long in this fight. He will throw one-twos down the middle. Spicely will throw some big hooks & uppercuts inside. Spicely has decent leg kicks & round kicks to the body. Spicely was throwing some decent elbows in his last fight with Deron Winn. The issue with Spicely’s striking is his defense. He allows fighters to control the center of the octagon & back him up. Spicely has a very bad habit of shelling up & just trying to keep a high guard & defend punches without moving his feet. Fighters are able to find holes in his guard & hit him to the head, as well as dig to his body. Spicely just isn’t very fast or athletic. I will say I think he has improved with his mindset & toughness of late. He seems more willing to eat shots to try to give his own & isn’t giving up anymore. He had a war with Deron Winn & was able to come back & get a knockout after being rocked against Caio Maghalaes. Spicely has been finished by strikes three times. He has three finishes with strikes himself.
Eric Spicely is a dangerous submission grappler. If he can get it to the mat, he is trouble for a lot of guys. Spicely doesn’t have the greatest wrestling. Spicely will use single & double leg entries against the cage, but just isn’t very effective. He will use the single leg entry to pull guard & attack the legs, or attack from full guard. Spicely is very good at sweeping. Spicely transitions extremely fluidly on top. He will attack submissions to open passing opportunities & is always threatening something. Spicely will slide to mount & pound fighters out. He is very good at taking the back & keeping it. He can lock in rear naked chokes very effectively. Spicely has seven career submissions. He has been submitted once versus Sam Alvey. Spicely slows down a lot in fights as well. He doesn’t have very good cardio. He goes in there to finish fights & if he doesn’t get it done early he usually loses. Spicely has finished 10 of his 12 wins in the first round. He does have two decision wins, but his record after fights pass round one is 2-4.
I like Perez here. Spicely has been a guy I look to target against & it’s really just the submissions you have to worry about with him. He did look improved on the feet in his last fight & I like the volume he threw, so I don’t like Perez as much as I would have before seeing that fight. I still expect Perez to be the better striker & much more likely for a KO, but he does lack volume & that could hurt him here if it hits the scorecards. I would say Perez is probably better on the ground as well but that is where Spicely excels & he is live for a submission upset here, so I think Perez should look to keep it standing & maybe just land takedowns late in rounds where Spicely doesn’t have enough time to reverse them or pull off a sub from the bottom. I think Perez can get a knockout though if this fight does stay standing so that is how I will pick him to get the win here.
Perez is my preferred play here and I have a feeling there will be a lot of people looking to fade Spicely here. I do like Perez, but I don’t know that I like him as much as I think the field will. I do believe he needs a knockout to score highly here because he doesn’t have the volume to score well in a decision and going to the mat with Spicely wouldn’t be the smartest idea for him, even though he could get a sub himself. I will get some Perez for sure, but I am guessing I go underweight to the field. I don’t really see Spicely breaking the slate, but I do have interest in him because I expect him to be low owned. He could win a decision on volume or get a sub here, but it is more an ownership thing for me. Perez is the preferred play still in all formats but if he won a ~70-point decision it wouldn’t shock me at all.
Winner – Markus Perez via 1st round (T)KO
Ray Borg $9,000 vs Nate Maness $7,200
Ray Borg
Age: 26
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: 63”
Gym: Fit NHB
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 7-5
Fight Matrix: 35
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -245
Ray Borg is set to return after a family emergency nixed his last scheduled fight. Borg has been more active of late, & this will be his third fight of 2020. Borg seems to be fighting at BW now which probably will help him fight more often. The issue with that is he hasn’t had the best success there. Borg is only 2-2 at BW in the UFC. Borg is still a young guy with a lot of room to go. His striking looked better than ever in his last match. He showed super-fast hands. His jab looked good. Borg was coming forward behind a high guard, countering with straights & hooks. He was ripping the body very well & then coming up to the head & vice versa. His combinations looked super-fast & sharp. Borg’s defense & head movement looked good. On the feet, he looked good in his last fight.
Ray Borg got a bit of his own medicine in his last match. The man who usually takes everyone down & controls them had that happen to him a bit in his last match. Borg was taken down a lot of times but was able to show his heart & scrambling ability & continued to return to his feet. Borg was facing an elite wrestler in Ricky Simon. In this matchup, he should have the better grappling. Ray Borg is an elite wrestler. He is very explosive & has great double legs. He is very fast closing the distance & sets his shots up very well with his strikes. He has nice single leg shots & good chain wrestling. He will get in on a single leg, take the back standing & land a suplex. He will also get in on a double transition to a body lock & dump opponents. He will look to hold opponents against the fence & search for singles & doubles. He landed multiple slam double legs in his last match & looked to jump on the back. On top, he is excellent. He throws a large volume of ground & pound is always looking to move to dominant positions. He has heavy elbows on top & can cut opponents. He has a great mount & is always looking to take the back. He is very good at taking the back as opponents stand up. He will attack with guillotines & darces & then quickly scramble to take the back. He is very good in scrambles & almost always ends up in top position. He has good arm triangles & rear naked chokes. Borg has an elite gas tank & loads of high level experience.
Nathan Maness
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Salvation MMA
From: Kentucky
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 83
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +205
Nathan Maness is getting a huge opportunity here. He is facing a former title challenger in his UFC debut. A win would get him right on the map in the division. Maness is a big 135er who has fought a lot of matches at 45 & 55. He is going to be 5’10 to Borgs 5’4 & have a 9” reach advantage. Maness is 11-1 overall. Nathan Maness as a striker, stands tall, & tries to stay loose & counter. He is pretty light on his feet. Maness will shoot the jab out there. Maness throws heavy punches. He will leap into lead hooks & uppercuts. He has a nasty two right down the pipe. His straight has extreme power & he can put fighters out cold with one shot. Maness likes to switch stance & can shoot the straight down the pipe effectively from both. Maness will throw some nice body & head kicks. Maness does have a lot of issues with his striking though. He gives big reactions to feints, & when he gets hit he can shell up. Maness gives up the center & backs himself up to the cage far too easily. He is a hittable guy. Due to the fact that he stands tall, he is hittable to the body. He was hit with a side kick to the liver against Taylor Lapilus & crumbled. That was Maness’ only career loss. Maness has four KO/TKO’s himself.
Nathan Maness will look to mix it up & wrestle. He will push fighters to the cage & go for double legs. On top, Maness doesn’t look very dangerous. He will just control & win the round. I have seen him hit a darce choke against a low-level opponent, but that’s the only submission win of his career. I haven’t seen Maness wrestle defensively much. The only time I did, he did counter the takedown with a guillotine, & was able to defend it. I feel like the fact he stands so tall & backs himself up to the cage, he will be taken down by a fighter like Borg. Maness will be the bigger man & I haven’t seen him much off his back. His path to victory has to be by defending the takedowns & tiring out Borg before finishing him. Maness does have a couple wins over good fighters, but his record is a bit padded. Borg is a huge step up in competition.
Maness is making his debut here & it is a tough one. Maness looked decent on the feet & I really give him all the advantages there; Height, reach, power, volume, & more tools. However, that is not the fight Borg wants & he is going to look to chain wrestle/grapple. I think Maness could be decent on the ground, but it is hard to think he will have any real edge there over Borg & he is probably going to need this fight to stay standing to get him the win. I will take the vet here, but I am not as confident as Vegas is & I do think he loses the striking exchanges.
Borg is my preferred DK play here because his path to victory is grappling and he will do that relentlessly and that could score well even in a decision win. Borg lands 3.89 takedowns per 15-minutes and he has had 19 and 12 advances in fights before, so he carries a nice ceiling with the game plan he will need here. Maness looks like he will have the edge on the feet, so I don’t think Borg looks to stand long here and I expect him to have a big edge on the ground. I will have some Maness too because he looks solid on the feet and does have power, so I guess he could get a KO and break the slate. I just don’t think that is likely at all since we haven’t seen Borg ever close to being knocked out. I will look to be in line with the field on both guys here I would think but Borg will be much higher owned, so he is my preferred option in all formats.
Winner – Ray Borg via Unanimous Decision
Gerald Meerschaert $8,300 vs Ed Herman $7,900
Gerald Meerschaert
Age: 32
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 6-5
Fight Matrix: 40 (MW)
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -170
Gerald Meerschaert is looking to get right back on the horse following a disappointing effort in his last matchup. He was knocked out in less than a minute & thirty seconds by Ian Heinisch & needs a better result here. Meerschaert is moving up a division to LHW & coming back less than 6 weeks after a brutal knockout. That is definitely concerning to me. Gerald Meerschaert on the feet isn’t the best but has some dangerous weapons. He has nasty body kicks that he has folded multiple opponents with. He will throw heavy head kicks. In this fight, Meerschaert’s body kicks & boxing need to be on point. In his last few fights he has shown some improved boxing. Meerschaert isn’t overextending as much & relies a lot more on the jab. GM3’s jab is pretty good, but very slow. Meerschaert has a pretty nice straight & overhand right. His left hook hurt Eryk Anders a couple times in their match. He was doing a good job of catching Anders with it as he tried to exit. He rocked Deron Winn & finished him. When Meerschaert can back his opponents towards the cage, he will let go with longer combinations to the body and head. He is good at attacking the body in fights. Meerschaert will mix in nasty knees & elbows & gets most of his finishes standing when his opponents backs against the fence. Meerschaert does have some defensive flaws on the feet though. He isn’t the fastest fighter, nor does he have the best footwork. He will lean back a lot to avoid punches instead of moving his feet. He is very hittable & did get dropped vs Anders. He took a lot of damage against Deron Winn, & then was finished quickly vs Ian Heinisch. He is heavy on his lead leg & can be low kicked. Meerschaert is a durable guy though & has only been finished by strikes one time. He has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Gerald Meerschaert is a crafty veteran & black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He is very good at baiting opponents into fighting his style of fight. He will give no resistance on takedowns, flop to his back when hurt, & always is inviting opponents to get in top position on him. Meerschaert is very confident that he will be able to find a sweep, take top position & end the fight. He has good single leg takedowns. He does a good job of timing singles when opponents throw kicks. He has nice body lock entries, & he is very physically strong in the clinch. He has good control, & nice short knees & elbows. He will grind in the clinch & then eventually drop down for a double or single. He has good chain wrestling & can transition from body locks to doubles to singles very fluidly. On top, he has strong ground & pound & will rain down straight punches & elbows. He has good guard passing & is very heavy on top. He is very opportunistic with chokes & has a lot of different chokes he can pull off. He has gotten a guillotine, arm triangle, anaconda, & rear naked choke. Meerschaert has 22 submissions in his 30 wins.
Ed Herman
Age: 39
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Team Quest
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 12-10-1
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +150
Ed Herman has looked good as of late & is riding a two-fight winning streak. Herman in his last three fights has performed surprisingly well. He still has that fire & desire & is just a tough ass dude. Herman has been in the UFC for 14 & a half years. He has to be one of the longest tenured fighters in UFC history. Herman may not be as athletic as he was when he first joined the UFC, but he definitely still has something left. His striking is not bad at all. He hits hard, has good counter punching ability & can take a shot. He usually has to get hit a bit to get started, but I actually rate him as the better striker in this matchup. Herman has a nice, stiff jab. Herman was throwing a nice jab to low kick, or left hook to low kick combination in his last fight. He was throwing some heavy low kicks against Ibragimov. Herman has a nice straight-right hand. Herman likes the left hook, overhand right combination, & vice versa. He will switch up which punch he leads with & switch up the placement of the hook attacking the body at times as well. Herman throws a lot of volume & is always walking fighters down & making them work. His defense is not good at all. He holds his hands low, is slow & just very hittable. He has a hell of a chin & doesn’t mind getting hit. Herman looked as if he demoralized Khadis Ibragimov a bit in his last match by eating his shots. His counter punching is dangerous also. Even if fighters hit him, he will come back with short hooks or overhands & it makes fighters hesitant.
Ed Herman is a good submission grappler. He is an original team quest member & has had good takedown defense for over a decade now. In the clinch is where Herman is the most dangerous. He has nasty knees & powerful elbows. We saw Herman finish Pat Cummins in a recent fight with a big clinch elbow. In his last match with Khadis Ibragimov, he did an excellent job of staying busy in the clinch. He was framing & throwing hard elbows, knees & keeping the volume high even with his back pressed against the cage. He is very good at digging a strong underhook, controlling a wrist & throwing elbows/dirty boxing. He was able to bust up Ibragimov with the clinch strikes & really dominated that fight. Herman isn’t a super active seeker of the takedown in recent years. The thing is with this fight, GM3 is a guy who has notoriously bad takedown defense, & maybe it would be smart to get on top. Herman is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, & maybe he would feel he can avoid the submissions, keep the top control & win rounds. He throws some heavy ground & pound from the top also. Ultimately though I think Herman will probably just want to stand & bang. When fighters do take down Herman, it’s usually off him throwing a kick. We have seen Herman dominated on the mat a few times, most recently against CB Dolloway. He was taken down by Khadis Ibragimov in the third round but was able to attack with elbows & submissions off his back. He did more on bottom than his opponent did on top. Herman does counter takedown attempts with a good guillotine. Herman is active off his back with armbars & triangles & does have solid get-ups & up kicks off his back. He will attack the legs as well & has pretty good leg locks. Herman does have thirteen submissions in his career, but only four in the UFC. He has been submitted six times himself. When you go back & look at some of the fighters who have submitted Ed Herman though, they are legends of the game. Herman has been submitted by Kazuo Misaki, Joe Doerksen, Demian Maia, & Jacare Souza. Those are some elite ground specialists. Overall, Herman is a veteran with a very solid, well-rounded workman like game. His cardio is good, he is tough, durable & never will look for a way out. He is a stiff test for a lot of guys.
Meerschaert is taking this fight on late notice, up a weight class. I don’t see him being at a size disadvantage here though & I would still give him the grappling edge. I think this is a very close fight though. On the feet, I would expect Gerald to maybe land more shots but Herman landing the harder shots & more likely to get a KO. Both guys are solid at getting submissions as well, but they can be susceptible to them themselves. Meerschaert is a guy I like to bet at dog odds, but I don’t think I can pull the trigger on him here with this line & I would probably say this is even dog or pass.
This is a tough one. Either side could get an early finish and be on the optimal. Or, we could see a sparring match where the winner scores ~50 in a win. I am not sure what I will do with this one, but I think Herman is my preferred side. I think he is more in play for a round 1 KO than Meerschaert is for a round 1 KO or sub. Both guys could also get a sub because that has happened in 50 of their fights. 36 combined submission wins and 14 combined submission losses. I just think this fight stays on the feet more than I would like and the dog has more upside there. I won’t touch either side in cash games but both sides are in play for GPPs and I will likely have some shots on both sides with a bit more Herman, but not a ton of this fight as a whole.
Winner – Gerald Meerschaert via Split Decision
Jonathan Martinez $8,600 vs Frankie Saenz $7,600
Jonathan Martinez
Age: 26
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Factory X
From: Texas
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 103
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -255
Jonathan Martinez is set to make his return here following his controversial loss in his last matchup. Martinez lost a split decision to Andre Ewell in one of the more controversial decisions of 2020. Most everyone felt Martinez deserved the win. If the judges would have gave it to him, he would be riding a 3 fight UFC winning streak right now. Instead he is 2-2 in the UFC coming off a loss. Martinez is a rangy, southpaw striker with very good kicks. He is smaller for the division, but a very quick guy with good movement. He walks opponents down, feints & throws occasional kicks looking to draw out shots to counter. He has nasty, low calf kicks. Martinez has a nice, rear leg front kick to the body & head. He has good round kicks to the body and head also. In his last match, he landed a disgusting front knee to the chin that shut Pingyuan Liu off instantly. Martinez has 3 KO’s with knees. He is working on his hands & improved his jab. He has a nice counter right hook. He will throw counter straights & overhand lefts. His hands looked fast vs Ewell & he was throwing nice counter combos. Martinez has very good defense & walks fighters down with a high guard. He has a strong chin & will to match. Martinez has never been finished. He isn’t a big power guy besides with the knees. He is a creative striker & when he has fighters compromised will pour on the pressure. Martinez has 5 KO/TKO’s.
Jonathan Martinez is a pretty solid grappler. He was able to control Andre Soukhamthath in the clinch for portions of their fight. In his match with Soukhamthath, he also got a body lock & back take. He showed strong scrambling ability against Wuliji Buren after being taken down. He wasn’t able to stop the takedowns of Buren, though he was able to hit multiple sweeps. Martinez isn’t a big ground & pound guy on top. He did open up with some big shots in the last twenty seconds of his match with Wuliji Buren. The dangerous aspect of his ground game is his rear naked chokes & armbars from bottom. Martinez isn’t a huge submission threat with just two in his career. He needs to be ready to defend takedowns or sweep & make Saenz pay for them. Martinez’s best trait is his cardio & heart. He will make fighters work & will be there likely until the final bell.
Frankie Saenz
Age: 39
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 66”
Gym: Fight Ready MMA
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 5-4
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +215
Frankie Saenz will be jumping back into the mix after a year & half layoff. I’m not sure why he has taken so much time off, but he should be refreshed & ready to go. Saenz has been training at fight ready with beasts like Korean Zombie & Henry Cejudo. He is 39 years of age though, which is very worrying for a BW. Frankie Saenz is a grinder who has rounded out his striking game pretty well. He has good footwork & lateral movement. He has a decent jab & strong, low leg kicks. He does a good job of landing straight & overhand rights. He will throw an overhand right, left hook combination. He has an accurate straight-right hand & does a good job of pull countering with it. He can set it up the same way becoming predictable, & fighters are able to catch him clean with his hands down & chin up trying to counter. He got rocked that way vs Augusto Mendes. He will throw nice left hook to the body to right hook to the head combinations. He will also throw a straight-right hand to the body. He has a good right uppercut, left hook combo. He is chinny & doesn’t take shots well. He was finished by Marlon Vera & gets wobbled a lot in fights. He does a good job of surviving & recovering quickly. Saenz has a style of darting in & darting out which isn’t the best from a defensive standpoint. Saenz has definitely been a decision fighter over his career, & never had a finish victory in the UFC. He has 3 TKO’s on his record & has been finished with strikes three times.
Frankie Saenz is a solid grappler & former college wrestler. He is strong in the clinch & has good control against the fence. He will throw hard knees to the legs & body, & nice elbows. He is good at closing the distance with punches, grabbing the Muay Thai plum & finishing combinations with knees. He dropped Augusto Mendes with a big clinch elbow. Saenz has strong takedown defense. If fighters do take him down, he is very hard to hold down. He proved that in the Merab Dvalishvili fight & throughout his career. Saenz has a solid double leg shot. He will attack with single legs as well. He likes to duck under, get double underhooks & bull opponents over. On top, he is more of a control over damage fighter. He will not attempt many submissions either. He landed some pretty big elbows once he got Henry Briones down in his last win. Saenz has two career submissions & has never been submitted. He has very good cardio & can go all three rounds. At 39 years old his best days are definitely behind him.
I think Martinez is the better, faster striker here & if this fight stays on the feet I would expect him to get the win. Saenz can hang on the feet though & his real edge in this fight is going to be his wrestling. I think he can keep Martinez against the cage & work for takedowns to edge out the rounds & that would be the best game plan for him to follow. Martinez can be put on his back & Saenz is willing to chain wrestle, so I think that is a clear path for him & with him being the underdog I have to pick him for that reason. He is 39 years old now though, so I don’t even know if he has it in him to chain wrestle anymore, but this is still a dog or pass fight for me & I think he can do enough to win at least two rounds.
Saenz is my preferred play in this fight, but I won’t have a lot of exposure. I don’t see any real ceiling from him even if he is to win this fight with a wrestling heavy game plan. Maybe he can get 6 takedowns or so, but he probably won’t do a ton with them and he won’t be striking at a high rate. He is a guy I think is playable in all formats but not a must have at all. Martinez isn’t a bad play himself and he could get a KO, but I think we are relying on that KO for him to be on the optimal. I don’t want to have to rely on that, so I will mostly fade Martinez here. If anything, he would probably make 1 of 20 lineups type deal for me.
Winner – Frankie Saenz via Unanimous Decision
Kevin Holland $8,900 vs Trevin Giles $7,300
Kevin Holland
Age: 27
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 81”
Gym: Travis Lutter BJJ
From: Texas
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 43
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -210
Kevin Holland is jumping in again on short notice, this time in a Texas showdown. Holland is going to take on Trevin Giles, another 27-year-old prospect. Holland ran through his last opponent Anthony Hernandez in 39 seconds his last fight. He was going to drop down to 170 & take on Daniel Rodriguez but is taking another fight at 185 now. Holland is a dynamic athlete with a great frame for the division. He does a good job of staying long. He has a nice jab, good one-twos, & his straight-right hand is accurate. He has a nice check left hook. He will throw long hooks & slaps as well. He will throw jabs & straight-right hands to the body. He lunges in with a lot of his punches & is fast in & out. He can leave his chin high with his hands down. He will also lean back at times & use that tall man type defense. He is very good with his kicks. He has nice leg kicks. He will attack with inside/outside leg kicks, & oblique kicks to the knees. He has a very good lead leg. He will throw a lot of lead leg hook kicks to the body & head. He has nice round kicks & heavy rear leg front kicks to the body. He will throw a front kick to a straight-right hand combination. He did a great job of targeting the body of John Phillips with front kicks, hurting him multiple times. When he gets pressured, he will open with jump knees. He will mix in lead elbows in close range. He is very good at keeping a high guard & rolling with shots in close range. He will let his opponents hit his guard & then try to time elbows & shots in between their combos. It is a bit dangerous because he isn’t moving & there is always the chance the right shot slips through the guard & hurts him. Overall, he is excellent at fighting long & is an awkward puzzle to solve. He can allow himself to get backed up against the cage & become more defensive than offensive if an opponent has power. He will also throw shots like little jabs, or non-power shots when he is too close to his opponent & gets countered with bigger shots. He does have a great chin & will talk to opponents & get confidence off taking their shots. After he gets hit he can get emotional & walk forward with his hands down. He definitely is at his best, when he is feinting with the lead leg, & using it to set up his punches & going forward himself. He has 6 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Kevin Holland is a good grappler. He is a black belt under Dean Lister. He has solid body locks, & good G&P. He was able to get two nice double legs in his last match, but that was against a fighter with no grappling. Overall, he doesn’t look to go for takedowns much or to work in the clinch. He will throw the occasional clinch elbow, or knee. He will look to get standing guillotines. He will also go for flying armbars & triangles. On top, he will throw hard punches standing in opponents’ guard due to his length & can land elbows. He will look to use his length to pass into dominant positions & get the mount or back. He was able to get a rear naked choke in his last win. He is dangerous with submissions. He has a nasty guillotine, good triangles & leg locks. He will sweep with omaplatas. He will attack with kimuras. He is active on top or off his back. Holland’s takedown defense is terrible. He is taken down in the clinch or with wrestling shots far too easily. He does have the ability to get out of deep submissions & scrambles well. Holland in his last fight was actually dominating the striking & winning on the ground but he gassed out. He has 6 submissions & only been submitted one time.
Trevin Giles
Age: 27
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: W4R Training Center
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 34
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +175
Trevin Giles is coming off a victory in his last fight, but it was not without controversy. Giles won a split decision where one judge who had relation to him gave him a round he clearly lost. That fight was very weird in general, with James Krause moving up a weight class & taking the fight on 1 days’ notice. Giles is hopefully getting a more normal fight week this time. Giles has flashy striking & I think I kind of overrated it. Giles does have a very nice jab, is light on his feet & has good movement. He likes to stay long & work behind one-twos to the head & body. He will throw a really nice rear uppercut & left hook, straight-right combo as well. He has very fast hand speed, & controls distance well. The issue I have seen with Giles striking in his last two matchups though is he doesn’t like to exchange in the pocket. He holds his hands low & relies on using fast feet, potshotting & sliding in & out of range to avoid shots. Giles doesn’t go first a lot either & can be in low volume fights. He can be hard to hit, but if fighters can pressure & back him up or get in range where they can exchange, Giles usually will look to duck under for the clinch takedown. Even with a fighter like Gerald Meerschaert who isn’t a very dangerous striker, Giles instead of just sticking & moving decided to go for takedowns. I just think Giles knows he’s hittable & doesn’t have big faith in his chin. Giles is predominately someone who works the hands. He will throw some leg & body kicks when he loosens up & can hide them at the end of combinations, but not as much as he should. In his match with Zak Cummings, he got caught with a shot that put him down in round three. He is definitely hittable when opponents force him to exchange. Giles is not someone who looks for the knockout really. He has 5 KO/TKO’s but mostly on the ground.
Trevin Giles recently has become a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu. In Giles’ last match it was essentially a grappling affair. Giles likes to clinch up when opponents get too close to him & dump them with body locks & trips. He has solid double legs & thudding ground & pound. He will throw big shots from inside his opponent’s guard & can finish fights with hammerfists. He likes to move to side control & get the crucifix position. He will force opponents to give their backs & then unload brutal shots from the wrestling ride position. He knocked James Bochnovic out extremely bad with G&P. He has solid top control & is good at being faster in scrambles. He will take the back in scrambles & lock in rear naked chokes. He has two rear naked chokes. He also has an arm triangle, armbar, & inverted triangle. He can keep a very high pace & really put a beating on opponents. He is excellent in top position. In his match with GM3, after getting takedowns, he was outsmarted on the ground. Meerschaert was allowing Giles to move into dominant positions like side control or the mount only to get sweeps. Gerald was able to hit multiple sweeps & have some top control of his own. Eventually he caught Giles in a guillotine & forced him to tap out. That’s now two times he’s been submitted via guillotine. Giles is a rear naked choke guy with five submission victories.
Aside from fight IQ, Holland should have the edge everywhere here. I think he can win this fight anywhere & finish on the feet or the ground. I don’t always trust him to fight how he should though so always tough to lay juice on him, but this is a favorite or pass spot for me. I think Giles is a solid fighter & maybe even the better wrestler, but I think Holland is going to be the more active striker, landing the harder blows, & I also think he has the grappling edge if the fight hits the mat.
This is another fight where I like both sides a bit, but I am more interested in Holland. I think Holland is the one with a ceiling in this fight, but he is hard to trust and if he scored 60 in a decision win it wouldn’t shock me. I do think he has a lot of grappling upside and could get a KO as well, so I want to be in line with the field on him if not even overweight. Giles isn’t a guy that I will make a priority, but he is a live dog and I would expect him to land some takedowns if he is able to win. We don’t need 100 from him at $7.3k so any win from him could be enough and I want a few shots for that reason. I don’t think this is a fight I would want to trust in cash games, but Holland would be my preferred side there as well.
Winner – Kevin Holland via 2nd round Submission
Lando Vannata $8,200 vs Bobby Green $8,000
Lando Vannata
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Jackson’s MMA Acoma
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 3-4-2
Fight Matrix: 34
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -145
Lando Vannata is a very good striker. His movement is excellent & he is extremely fast in & out. In the first round Vannata is super dangerous. He walks fighters down while faking, feinting, moving in & out & controlling distance. He will switch stances & is very unpredictable. He will explode into combinations. He keeps his hands low & uses head movement to avoid shots & come back with counters. He can get hit with some big shots but rolls with them well & has a great chin. He has very crisp punches, nice combinations & really has nice kicks. Vannata has an excellent right hook & nasty straight-left hand. He is excellent at pull countering with the left hand & will double, triple up on the punch. Vannata will use the left hook to set up straight punch blitzes. Vannata will throw a nasty left hook, right straight combination. He has a nasty uppercut. When he gets opponents backing up & start landing the jab, fighters are in trouble because he puts together crazy combinations. He will attack the body with left hooks & then go upstairs with head kicks. Vannata has very nice leg kicks. He will throw them inside, outside along with oblique kicks. When he fought Matt Frevola, he was getting countered due to not setting up his leg kicks. He was dropped due to this. He will throw sanchai kicks, spinning heel kicks extremely fluidly. His spinning heel kick KO of John was a thing of beauty. He sets the heel kicks up with the oblique kick to the knee. He also is very good at catching kicks & returning with spinning kicks of his own. He has a good spinning backfist. Vannata can leave his chin right in the air at times & get tagged with huge shots. Vannata’s leg kick defense has been exposed in his last few fights. He doesn’t check kicks, is heavy on his lead leg & has had big issues with calf kicks. His chin is sick he has never been finished with strikes in his career & has been in some wars. He was hurt badly by Matt Frevola & Tony Ferguson. Vannata has grit & is willing to dig deep in a dog fight. He has 4 KO/TKO’s.
Lando Vannata is a former college wrestler & good grappler. He is very good at using his takedowns to set up shots off the breaks. Vannata will get deep in on the legs, disengage & throw a quick head kick or hook that opponents don’t see. He was able to drop Matt Frevola with a head kick on the break in their fight. He has fast single & double leg shots & good takedowns overall. He landed a nice body lock takedown in his last match. Against Mariano, Vannata was able to posture up inside Mariano’s guard & land some big shots. He used the punches to move to side control, grabbed the kimura & got the finish. Lando Vannata’s takedown defense is excellent. He has a great sprawl & is very good at disengaging from the clinch. He is very good at using the guillotine to counter takedowns & reverse to top position. David Teymur was able to land a few blast doubles on him but couldn’t control position on top. Vannata is extremely hard to hold down & creates scrambles almost immediately. He will roll for leg locks. I don’t expect there to be much grappling in this fight. Vannata has 5 submissions & has been submitted one time. Vannata slows down majorly after round one.
Bobby Green
Age: 33
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Pinnacle MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 6-5-1
Fight Matrix: 48
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +125
Bobby Green is a stance switching fighter with good boxing skills. He holds his hands low & uses a lot of head movement & shoulder rolling to avoid punches. He has a great jab to the body & head & will follow that jab with a hard-right hook, or straight-right hand. He has a nice overhand right. He has a nice check left hook. He likes to throw oblique kicks to the knees & front kicks to the body. He catches kicks well & will return with counter punches. He will throw nice, round kicks to the body & head, & he keeps heavy forward pressure & volume on opponents. He lands 5 significant strikes per minute. He will walk opponents down with his hands by his side, countering & landing hard body shots. He is hittable with overhands, but he has a great chin & rolls with a lot of shots lessening the impact. He has the ability to get dropped & hurt badly such as versus Lando Vannata & recover & perform. He has 8 KO/TKO’s & has only been finished twice with strikes.
Bobby Green is a former wrestler & a strong grappler. He is very athletic & can close the distance into the clinch quickly. He does a good job of digging an underhook, pushing his opponents to the cage & landing knees to the body & elbows to the head. He was landing nasty punches & elbows in the pocket against Eric Koch. He will attempt body lock takedowns & he has good slam double legs, but he rarely puts much effort into getting the fight to the ground. He has great takedown defense, & he is extremely hard to hold down. If fighters can put him on his back, he isn’t very dangerous, & they don’t have to really worry about getting submitted. On top, he has good submissions. He has a nice arm triangle & good rear naked chokes. He has 9 career submissions, but only one in the UFC. He has been submitted two times himself. He has phenomenal cardio, & usually is stronger in the third round than the first.
This is a rematch from 2017 when these guys fought to a draw in the Fight of the Night. It was a fun fight & Vannata landed more significant strikes, takedowns (4), & a knock down. However, he had a point taken away for an illegal knee & that is what cost him the win there. I don’t see this being a totally different fight & I can see them getting the FOTN bonus again as well. I will lean with Vannata because I thought he already won, & he is the more aggressive & probably sharper IQ fighter here. This is close to a 50/50 fight still with him as the slight lean, so I don’t think there is any extra value in this line.
In their first fight, if Vannata ended up getting the decision win he would have scored 115 DK points. If that happens again at his $8.2k salary, then he is a lock for the optimal lineup. I do think that ceiling is in play here, so I do like Vannata a good bit this week and I will try to be overweight to the field. I like his pace and I think he has takedowns and a knockout in play. He is a guy I would be worried about being underweight to if MMEing and he could end up being a core play for me. Bobby is also in play here and I think he will be much less owned. If he won the first fight then he would have scored 82 DK points, which is OK, but I think he has KO potential and could maybe break the slate as well. I don’t think it is as likely, but I don’t think I can fade him either. I would guess I am about field weight on Green here, but I do like this fight a lot for GPPs.
Winner – Lando Vannata via Split Decision
Vicente Luque $8,800 vs Randy Brown $7,400
Vicente Luque
Age: 28
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Blackzillians
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 11-3
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five:4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -185
Vicente Luque is very technical & long for the division, so he uses that by throwing a nice snappy jab & inside & outside leg kicks. He likes to throw a jab to a straight or jab to an overhand combination & if he lands flush he has one punch KO power. He is a good athlete & his hands are very fast & loose, so it’s hard to see what he is going to throw next. He will attack with jumping knees when he gets opponents close to the cage. He will attack to the body with hooks & does a good job of mixing up his target & coming in on good angles. He has a hands high, come forward style & does a good job of cutting off the cage & making opponents fight off their back foot. When he gets in the pocket, he will unload with overhand rights & straight-lefts. He has a good chin & is willing to take a shot to give one. He can struggle a bit with a fighter who constantly pressures him & can eat his best shots. Luque isn’t used to fighters taking his shots & not going down, & he took some bombs from Barberena when Barberena was able to walk through his strikes. Luque is susceptible to the jab & sometimes he can get into a brawl when it’s unwarranted. Ultimately though, Luque still digs deep & usually finds a way to finish. Luque has 10 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished with strikes.
Vincente Luque has solid grappling skills. He has good takedown defense & good takedowns against the cage. He will go for singles & doubles against the cage & has decent body locks in the open mat. He has very nice submissions & his chokes are extremely dangerous. He has a nasty darce & anaconda choke. He has good top control & is very active with ground & pound & submissions. He has 6 career submissions & has been submitted twice himself. His cardio is very good & he keeps a heavy pace on fighters. He is a finisher having finished 16 of his 18 wins.
Randy Brown
Age: 30
Height: 6’3
Weight: 170
Reach: 78”
Gym: Budokan Martial Arts
From: New York
UFC Record: 6-3
Fight Matrix: 40
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +160
Brown is a well-rounded fighter with good striking. He has a very nice jab & good one-two. He will throw nice front kicks to the body & fights long. He will throw a nice one-two, left hook & double jab, left hook. He has good hand speed & when he gets his range & opponents on the back foot, he puts combinations together well. He has great knees & kicks. He will throw nice inside & outside leg kicks. He has good head kicks & front kicks to the body. He has a very nice knee to the head that is pretty tricky. When fighters let him start walking them down & getting his range & confidence going he is tough to beat. He’s athletic, fast, long & can keep a high volume of strikes on opponents. He doesn’t do as well fighting off his back foot. He can get backed up close to the cage & stands up tall. He can leave his chin in the air a little bit. He doesn’t get hit too much though & his defense is sound. He has been knocked out one time, in his last fight. That knock out was almost a freak occurrence & I think you have to say he still has a solid chin. He has 6 KO/TKO’s himself.
Brown is an improving grappler. He is good at using his length to his advantage. He has nice clinch control & nice knees to the body and head. He will shoot double legs sometimes from way too far out, but he’s very good at transitioning into body locks. He will use the double leg entry to come up into double underhooks or a tight waist. He will just dump opponents, or even jump on the back from standing. He prefers to keep position over submission. He has good G & P & will stand over fighters & throw long punches or nice, hard elbows. He cut Mickey Gall with an elbow & controlled him for two rounds. He can get caught against the cage & get double legged. He stands a bit high in his stance. He has good takedown defense though actually. He has heavy hips & nice double underhooks to defend the takedown. He has nice front chokes & will use them to counter takedown attempts. He will make opponents go to their backs to defend them & takes top position. Off his back, he will attack with good triangle & armbars, but he is too complacent on the ground & doesn’t have great get-ups. Both of the times he’s been finished were on the mat. He is a tough guy & is hard to submit. He trains at Serra BJJ & with the Danaher death squad & I would say he has underrated BJJ. He was almost submitted in his last fight against Warrley Alves early. He survived a couple deep rear naked chokes & showed a lot of heart. He has been submitted one time & has 3 submissions himself.
I think Luque is much better & more dangerous everywhere in this fight. The issue is that he looks like he could be on the decline because he has taken a lot of punishment in his fights the last couple years. Brown is going to have the size & reach advantage on the feet & Luque doesn’t go for takedowns often so maybe the fight stays standing. So, I guess the worry here is that Brown can maybe keep it close on the feet & make this a close fight or put him away. I would still say Luque is the better & more dangerous striker though & I think he has a huge edge on the ground if he looks to get it there. I think Luque can win this fight by KO, sub, or decision but it is hard to choose which it will be, but he is my pick to win.
Luque is pretty much always a core play for me on DraftKings. 7 of his UFC wins have scored over 100 DK points and he has that ceiling every time out. He fights at a high pace and he is capable of a knockout or a submission where all those 7 wins have come from finish. I like Luque here in all formats and he will once again be a core play. I will get a little bit of Brown exposure as well though just because of all the punishment Luque has taken lately, maybe Brown will be the guy to put him away and break the slate.
Winner – Vicente Luque via 3rd round Submission
Joanna Calderwood $8,700 vs Jennifer Maia $7,500
Joanne Calderwood
Age: 33
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 65.5”
Gym: Syndicate MMA
From: Scotland
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -145
Joanne Calderwood is a forward pressure fighter. She walks opponents down & does a good job of controlling the center of the cage. She is very good with her lead leg & uses it to control distance like a jab. She has a nice front kick to the body & head, & solid front round kicks to the head. She has nice inside leg kicks & has a very kick heavy style. She has a decent straight-left & left hook. She likes to throw body kick to straight-left combinations. She has nice spinning backfists & spinning back kicks to the body. She will throw nice front elbows & front knees to the body as well. She throws a high volume of shots out there, & if opponents don’t give her anything to worry about she will get confident & walk them down with combinations. She is a bit slow & doesn’t move her head, so she is very hittable. She enjoys getting hit & tasting blood & hasn’t been finished by KO/TKO yet in her career. She has 5 KO/TKO’s in her career.
Calderwood has been training a lot of grappling since moving to Syndicate & it paid dividends. In her last two matches she has been able to mix it up & use her grappling to help win fights. Calderwood will look for takedowns, usually either single legs or body locks. She has a solid body lock trip & a good timing on her single leg. She also will level change very well into body lock entries & mixes it up well. Her takedown defense is questionable. She can be taken down with well-timed shots when she’s pressuring. She has shown a nice bottom game, attacking with half guard sweeps & submissions. She was able to get an armbar in her fight against Kalindra Faria. She will also attack with elbows from bottom trying to cut opponents open. Calderwood has good cardio & can easily go three rounds.
Jennifer Maia
Age: 31
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 64”
Gym: Chute Boxe
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +125
Jennifer Maia is a come forward striker who has that heavy Muay Thai Chute Boxe style. She has an active jab. She will throw a one-two combination, or a jab, overhand right combination. She will throw a one-two to a left hook combination. She will mix uppercuts into close range. She is good at slipping punches & countering usually with her straight or overhand right. She will throw occasional leg & body kicks. She will attack the body with nice jabs & right hooks. She doesn’t throw a lot of variation & really her right hand is her bread & butter. She is at her best when she finds her range, goes forward & lets her right hand go. She can land her straight or overhand right over & over & it’s very accurate. When she’s able to stun fighters, she will swarm with combinations, but overall, she doesn’t throw a ton of volume. She is flat footed & doesn’t move her head much. She can get hit clean with shots. Modafferi had some success with straight punches in their matchup. She tends to start slow & pick up as fights go on. She doesn’t have much power & only has 3 KO/TKO’s in her career. She has been knocked out only one time & is a tough girl. I do feel her chin isn’t the greatest, & she was rocked by a jab by Aga Niedzweidz in a recent Invicta fight.
Maia is a solid grappler. She has good clinch control & will land hard knees to the legs & body. She digs nice double underhooks & will slow the pace of the fight by controlling fighters against the cage. She isn’t a wrestler, but she has good takedown defense. She has a strong sprawl & will use it to take top position herself. When she does get taken down, she has good get-ups. She will attack in her guard with armbars. In top position, she isn’t super dangerous with ground & pound. She has 5 career submissions. She has only been submitted one time & is someone who will go to sleep rather than tap.
Calderwood is passing up on a title shot to take this fight on short notice. If she loses this fight she is going to really regret that, but I think this is a good match for her to get a paycheck & a bit more experience before she rebooks the match with Valentina. I expect Calderwood to be faster, sharper, more active, landing the harder shots, being the better wrestler, & just outpointing Maia here. I think she is better everywhere & I don’t think she would take a last-minute fight & risking her title shot if she wasn’t in shape for it. I think JoJo is the 2nd best fighter in this division & I expect her to show that in this fight.
This is JoJo or pass for me on DraftKings. The betting line is moving in Maia’s favor, so I think JoJo’s price might scare people away, but I still like her in all formats. I don’t really see how Maia wins this fight unless it’s a close back and forth fight where JoJo has less volume than usual, but either way I don’t see any real ceiling for Maia. I will likely fade her here and hope the betting line increases her ownership. I do want some leverage on JoJo though, so I will be going overweight on her, but there are a lot of favorites I want to target this week, so I will be mixing them all around hoping to hit the right combo.
Winner – Joanne Calderwood via Unanimous Decision
Edmen Shahbazyan $9,100 vs Derek Brunson $7,100
Edmen Shahbazyan
Age: 22
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Glendale Fighting Club
From: California
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W11
Betting Odds: -330
Edmen Shahbazyan has an excellent jab. He will throw double jab, left hooks. He has a very nice one-two & double jab, two. He has fast hand speed & will let go with heavy hooks & uppercuts in the pocket. He will try to overwhelm opponents early if he sees they feel his power & get them out of there early. He has finished 7 of his 10 opponents in under 1 minute & 30 seconds. Edmen has really improved his boxing. He throws nice combinations. He has really nice one-twos. He will fake the jab & throw the two. In his fight with Tavares, he faked the jab & came with the high kick. Inside he flurries with powerful hooks. He does this interesting thing inside that I really like where he grabs behind the head of his opponent & throw punches with the other hand. It increases his power, & he will move his opponent’s head where he wants it. The only negative about Edmen in this fight with Brunson is he does tend to lower his hands when he’s backing up, & maybe Brunson will be able to blitz in & use his long punches to catch him. If Brunson catches you with that left hand, he can put you out. We haven’t really seen Edmen’s chin tested. Edmen has nine KO/TKO victories.
Edmen Shahbazyan is a strong wrestler, showing that off against Darren Stewart. Stewart is known as a super strong fighter, but Shahbazyan was able to out muscle him in the clinch & take him down at will. He is good at landing his double jab a couple times to get respect then feinting it into a body lock single or double leg. He has solid double legs in space, but he is best at getting takedowns against the fence. He has good chain wrestling against the cage. When he gets in on an opponent’s legs against the cage, he will transition from doubles to singles to body locks. He will come up into double underhooks then circle to the back & try to get takedowns there. He was able to takedown & take Stewart’s back a couple of times. We haven’t seen his defensive wrestling tested like it will vs Brunson, but I imagine it’s pretty good. Shahbazyan holds just one submission victory.
Derek Brunson
Age: 36
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 77”
Gym: Combat Club
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 11-5
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +270
Derek Brunson is a big, strong, explosive athlete for this division with one punch knockout power. He is extremely dangerous in the first round. He comes hard, blitzes & throws huge overhand rights. He almost attacks with a reckless abandon which has gotten him a ton of first round finishes against lesser competition but gotten him in trouble against the elite of the division. Brunson will throw the occasional leg kick & front snap kick, while also trying to gauge distance with the jab. He sometimes doesn’t set things up & will just lunge in. He does do a good job of faking level changes in between blitz combinations making him harder to read. He does have fast hands in the pocket & will throw straight punches with both hands with bad intentions. When he has a fighter hurt, he really will swarm & go for the finish. He has big power with 10 knockouts, but all of them are in round 1 & after that he slows down. He has a solid chin, but bad defense, & enters the pocket with his chin high & hands low making him an easy target. He has been finished with strikes 4 times in his career.
Brunson is a former division two All American Wrestler. He has become more of a striker in recent memory & hasn’t really used his wrestling much at all. In a couple matches, he’s went back to his roots & took Heinisch & Theodorou down multiple times. Brunson likes to close the distance & get the single collar tie where he is strong & will land nice, hard uppercuts & short hooks. He has fast hands & can throw in combination making him dangerous even if his opponent is in a dominant clinch position like the Muay Thai plum. He has a decent double leg, but he telegraphs it & shoots from too far outside at times. When he does get in on the legs, he is hard to stop from taking fighters down & is a strong guy. He does a good job of grabbing a single leg then going up to the body lock clinch driving his opponent to the cage & getting a double leg. If he can get on top, he has solid ground & pound, & will rain down punches & elbows. He likes to get to the back & get the rear naked choke, but he isn’t a huge submission threat with just three in his career. He has never been submitted. He does get tired as the fight goes on & 21 of his 27 fights have been finished in round one.
I like Shahbazyan here & I think the UFC does too. I think he could be a title contender in the next year or two & this is the 3rd time the UFC has booked this fight. It seems like they want another big win for him & Brunson could be a good one for his highlight reel. Brunson isn’t a bad fighter, he is a solid striker & wrestler himself, but he is very hittable. I think Shahbazyan probably has the edge everywhere in this fight other than experience, but I think he is going to test Brunson’s chin & put him away at some point. Brunson could get a KO himself, but I have a hard time seeing him win a decision & a submission from him would shock me.
This is only a 3-round fight, so I don’t think it is a must have main event this week, especially if you think it goes the distance. Edmen is still my preferred play though and my favorite play on the slate. I just think this is the perfect fight to get him an early KO and I think he probably gets it in round 1 or 2. He is a core play for me this week and I will probably have him in 70% or more of my lineups. Brunson is a fine GPP shot if you think he wins this fight, I just probably fade him or use him as a 1-2 lineup hedge play since I will have so much Edmen. This would be Edmen or pass for me in cash games as well. If I was making 10 or less lineups this week I would probably just go all-in on Edmen.
Winner – Edmen Shahbazyan via 1st round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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