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BigMarley3’s UFC 251 DraftKings Breakdown

BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown

 

Event – UFC Fight Island 1                                          Location – Fight Island, Abu Dhabi

 

This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card on Fight Island that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some awesome contests for us to win a bunch of money on this week. The main GPP is the 2nd ever Milly Maker. It is a $25 buy-in and $1,000,000 goes to 1st place with $2.25M in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.

A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.

 

With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:

 

Martin Day $8,500 vs Davey Grant $7,700

Martin Day

Age: 31

Height: 5’10

Weight: 135

Reach: 70”

Gym: Hawaii Elite MMA

From: Hawaii

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -165

 

Martin Day will be making his second UFC start still in search of his first win. Day has not fought in over a year due to injuries. At 31 years old he needs to get rolling here if he wants to make a run. Martin Day is a good, rangy striker. He is very creative & lets it all go in there. Day has very fast hands. He throws some really nasty jabs and straight punch combinations. Day throws peppering shots in combination that stun fighters. Martin Day will go to the body very well. He likes to throw straight-rights to the body to left hooks to the head. He will throw some nasty hooks downstairs as well. Day switches stances, has great movement, pull counters and is just very slick. He has nice kicks as well; Heavy calf kicks, good lead leg sidekicks to the body and head. He has snappy front kicks up the middle. He will throw round kicks to the body and head with both legs. He loves throwing spinning hook kicks. Day throws spinning backfists, superman punches, flying knees, elbows, you name it. He is super dynamic. Day does play with his hands down, and sometimes can go to the well with the same attacks too much. If fighters can catch him mid kick or spin & counter, he can be hurt. Day was dropped in the third round by Pingyuan Liu by throwing a naked kick. Day has been KO’d once in his career. He has four KO’s himself.

Martin Days grappling is his weak point, but he is clearly improving. Day has good distance control and is a fast twitch fighter so he’s hard to get inside on. Fighters tend to have to take him down by catching his kicks or put him against the fence. Day has realized that & really improved his takedown defense against the cage. He always locks a strong whizzer and keeps a wide base. He will limp leg out of single legs well. Day is getting better with his takedown defense in the clinch also. He has great balance. He was able to defend all the takedown attempts of Pingyuan Liu. Day even hit a nice kouchi gari on Liu in the fight. Day doesn’t really like being on top though. He will land a couple elbows or punches and will be back to his feet. He did a good job of just standing up whenever Liu pulled guard in his last fight. Day does have those long arms, and a couple guillotines on his record. He also attempted a darce in his last fight. Day showed good submission defense, staying calm and surviving two deep choke attempts. He has never been submitted in his career. Martin Day still isn’t the best on the ground and did give his back after being dropped in the third round. He lost his fight on the Contender Series via being out grappled. If fighters beat Martin Day, usually it will be through out grappling him. Martin Day does slow down a little bit in the third round, but overall as a little guy can definitely bring it three rounds. I’m sure he will be hungry after his long layoff & close decision loss in his debut.

 

Davey Grant

Age: 34

Height: 5’8

Weight: 135

Reach: 69”

Gym: SBG Manchester

From: England

UFC Record: 2-3

Fight Matrix: 299

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +145

 

Davey Grant enters this fight confident coming off a victory in November. It was his first win since 2016, and Grant has been very inactive throughout his UFC career. He has been in the UFC since 2013 & has just five fights. Grant has been up & down so far in his UFC career, but isn’t a bad fighter. Grant is an aggressive, forward pressure striker. He likes to come forward with a wide stance & use long punches. He has a nice jab & a good one-two. When he gets inside he likes to throw wide hooks & overhands. He will sit down & throw with power, along with attacking the body. He has very nice knees when he gets fighters against the fence. He will land big knees from the Thai plum at the end of combinations. Grant will close the distance with nice lead uppercuts. Grant has nice round & front kicks to the body & head. He also throws front leg sidekicks to all parts of the body. Grant does hold his hands low & can be a little bit reckless in the way he closes distance. He can throw naked kicks that get him countered. He got dropped hard by a straight punch vs Manny Bermudez by throwing an unset-up kick. Davey Grant is not a big power fighter & relies on volume. He has just one career TKO. Grant is very tough & fighters will have to put him out to stop him. He has never been finished by strikes.

Davey Grant is a decent wrestler. He will use his forward pressure to back opponents to the cage & shoot in on singles & doubles against the fence. Grant is strong in the clinch & has good offense with knees & dirty boxing from there. When he gets top position, Grant will try to transition quickly to dominant positions. Grant will land big punches from the mount forcing opponents to give their backs & scoring rear naked chokes. He has four career rear naked chokes. Early in Grants career he scored a lot of guillotine victories. Davey Grant makes a lot of mistakes in top position though. He leaves his arms available to be armbarred & just doesn’t have great top control or submission defense. Even in Grant’s last fight, he got a couple takedowns, but struggled to keep position. He was threatened with a pretty deep armbar & a kimura. Grant has been submitted in all four of his career losses. He has 8 submissions of his own. Grant pushes hard, but definitely slows down in the third round. He is 2-0 in decisions, but never had a finish after the second round. Grant is going to be the veteran here with much more experience. He needs to use that to grind out a victory.

 

This is going to be a striker vs grappler match. Day should win on the feet and Grant should win on the ground. I think Day is more likely to finish Grant on the feet though than Grant is to get a submission. I don’t really think Grant has the wrestling to chain wrestle enough to dominate this fight either and I think Day can get back to his feet if he is taken down, so he might need to win two rounds with his wrestling/grappling here to get it done. I think Day can stuff enough takedowns and make the striking exchanges clear, so I will lean with him as my pick here.

I always love the first fight on the card and this could be a big one because I expect low ownership. Day is my preferred play because he is the better striker and I like his pace, and he could get an early KO and break the slate off right out of the gates. I don’t think that is likely, but for ownership reasons I want to be overweight. I think you can make the same case for Grant as an underdog, but you would need an early submission for him to break the slate and that could come with multiple takedowns. I don’t see either guy getting much ownership here, so I will take shots on both in GPPs but more so on the Day side. I also think it is Day or pass in cash.

Winner –  Martin Day via Unanimous Decision

 

Karol Rosa $9,200 vs Vanessa Melo $7,000

Karol Rosa

Age: 25

Height: 5’6

Weight: 135

Reach: 67.5”

Gym: Paraná Vale Tudo

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 1-0

Fight Matrix: 19

Last Fought: 11 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: -245

 

 

Karol Rosa is making her second start in the UFC. She was able to win a split decision in her last fight, November of 2019. Rosa has had four cancelled fights in a row, all vs Julia Avila. Two times Rosa withdrew & two events were cancelled due to Covid. Rosa is a meat & potatoes striker. She likes to come forward flat footed, & work behind jabs & leg kicks. Rosa has a very sharp, stiff jab, and a nice one-two. She will throw the pull counter straight-right hand, along with a nice right hook. She will throw a left hook straight-right hand, and her hand speed is good. Rosa catches opponents as they come inside. When she can back opponents towards the cage, she will wing wild overhands to close the distance. She will throw occasional front kicks & knees to the body. Rosa is solid at blocking & returning in the pocket but is hittable. She doesn’t move her head much & stands in front of opponents with very little movement. She is a tough chick & when she gets hit she will try to get it back immediately. Rosa is going to be the better striker on the outside in this fight, but she has to control the distance. I don’t think she hits as hard as Melo. She has to be able to not only dictate the range, but the pace by stinging Melo as she tries to come in. Rosa has 4 KO/TKO’s in her 12 wins and doesn’t have big power. She did get a knock down in her last match. Rosa has never been finished by strikes in her career.

Karol Rosa is a solid grappler. She likes to mix it up & usually looks for single legs or clinch takedowns against the cage. Rosa recently earned her Jiu-Jitsu black belt. Rosa has a nice double leg. She is good at taking mount & finishing fights. Rosa can let opponents use her momentum against her to throw her or just off balance her & get her down. She is good at bellying down, grabbing a leg & taking top position. When she fought Larissa Pacheco, Pacheco was able to control her on top & land good ground & pound. She was able to get a couple takedowns of her own but was swept & threatened with a kimura. She was eventually caught in a standing guillotine while going for a double leg. She was also submitted in top position with a kimura by Melissa Gatto. Rosa is very tough & good at eventually scrambling to top position. She has been submitted two times. She has two submissions of her own. Rosa has good cardio & is durable. She is only 25 & should look better here.

 

Vanessa Melo

Age: 32

Height: 5’5

Weight: 135

Reach: 65”

Gym: Babuino Gold Team

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 0-2

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +205

 

Vanessa Melo has not had success in the octagon. She is 0-2 in the UFC & has barely won a round. She has fought two fairly good fighters but hasn’t shown a good skill set. Melo’s striking is very basic. Her footwork is just not very good. She is flat footed & slowly tries to inch her way into boxing range. She tends to do a lot of waiting right in front of opponents, so she can counter. Melo will throw some inside leg kicks but is almost exclusively a puncher. Melo has a decent jab & lead left hook. She will slip a shot & come over the top with a right overhand or hook. She will slip & return with the jab or left hook. She throws a lot of arm punches lacking power. When fighters pressure Melo, she tends to back up in straight lines. She gives up the center pretty easily. She doesn’t move her head & gets hit entering range. She also just isn’t the fastest or best athlete. She has horrible footwork & is very flat footed. She does come in good shape. She tends to start slowing but walk opponents down in the latter half of the fight. In the pocket, she will wing some punches Melo does not have big power with 0 KO/TKO’s & has been TKO’d one time.

Vanessa Melo isn’t a super active grappler & won’t look for takedowns or the clinch much.  I have seen her shoot takedowns when she can back opponents to the cage & get double legs. Her takedown defense isn’t terrible. Melo was able to defend takedowns against the cage against Cortez. Cortez was able to control against the fence. Cortez was able to catch a kick & get a takedown, and Melo couldn’t get-up. Melo does have two career submissions, and has never been submitted.

 

I like Rosa here and I think she is better everywhere. Rosa should be the much more active striker here and she is a black belt in BJJ and trains with Andrade who is on this card as well. I think this fight mainly stays standing and I don’t think Melo can put up the same output as Rosa and she isn’t very dangerous, so I don’t see her getting a finish either. I think Rosa is more likely to win ITD and on the scorecards, so she is the pick.

This will likely be the lowest owned fight on the card. Melo because she sucks, and Rosa because of her price tag and the other favorites in her range. I am going to full fade Melo myself, but I do like Rosa in the milly maker because of that low ownership. She did score 125.5 DK points in her first DK fight as well, so I love the ceiling, but Melo won’t push that pace, so I don’t see that happening here. She could get 100-110 though and still have a shot at the optimal because I don’t see how she is more than ~13% owned here where the favorites in the title fights will all be 30-40%+. I think Rosa is fine in cash games as well, but I do prefer others more, but if going from Ribas to Rosa gets you someone you like in another spot, I am fine with it and I like her floor.

Winner – Karol Rosa via Unanimous Decision

 

Raulian Paiva $8,700 vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov $7,500

Raulian Paiva

Age: 24

Height: 5’8

Weight: 125

Reach: 69.5”1

Gym: Ronildo Nobre

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 1-2

Fight Matrix: 33

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -170

 

Raulian Paiva finally broke through after an 0-2 start to his UFC career. He knocked Mark De la Rosa clean out in a good performance. Paiva is only 24 years old, so he has a long time to keep improving & growing. Paiva is a well-rounded fighter with finishing ability. He is a tall, rangy opponent & plays the range game well. Paiva has a nice jab, and a really good straight-right hand. Raulian Paiva is a forward pressure striker & a brawler. Paiva has heavy hands & when he connects opponents definitely feel it. Paiva has a heavy jab & nice low kicks. Paiva’s straight & overhand right are powerful & accurate. He will throw nice, tight hooks in combination inside. Paiva will attack the body with powerful hooks. He is good at throwing a straight shot followed by a tight left or right hook that catch opponents flush. Paiva will throw solid front & round kicks to the body. He will throw occasional high kicks & spinning kicks, but rarely. Paiva’s cardio, power & durability are his calling cards on the feet. He drowns opponents with forward pressure, gets them tired & breaks their will. In exchanges, Paiva is hittable & will float his chin, but he is very durable. He is willing to take a shot to give his own. Paiva can struggle to cut the cage off at times & was pot shotted from the outside in his loss to France. Paiva definitely packs power for flyweight and has four KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes, besides getting finished via doctors’ stoppage.

Raulian Paiva is a bigger flyweight & very physically strong. Paiva will look to occasionally close the distance & shoot single & double legs against the cage. He is strong in the clinch and does a good job of using punches to get into the clinch safely. He will look for standing guillotines & to get on the back and get standing rear naked chokes. He is an awesome scrambler, and while not a good wrestler, he’s great at creating 50-50 positions & ending up on top.  In his last match, he showed excellent balance & scrambling ability against Rogerio Bontorin for the short period it lasted. He is excellent at defending takedowns with switches. Off his back, he has excellent sweeps, and will attack with triangles & armbars. His sweeping game is dynamic, and he turns bad positions into good ones more often than not. Paiva hasn’t gotten too many submissions over his career but is definitely dangerous on the mat. Paiva has three career submissions. He has been submitted one time. Paiva has excellent cardio & is always looking to inflict damage. Paiva’s style usually is enough to win him the output battle & thus win the decision. Paiva is 12-1 in decisions with the one loss being a split decision I feel he won.

 

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Age: 31

Height: 5’5

Weight: 125

Reach: N/A

Gym: Erkin Kush

From: Kazakhstan

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 9

Last Fought: 9 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W4

Betting Odds: +150

 

Zhalgas Zhumagulov will be making his long-anticipated UFC debut. He has been on a good run as the Fight Night’s global champion. Zhumagulov has taken out some UFC veterans, & is a welcomed addition to the division. Zhumagulov is a big guy for the division. He has a good reach and frame. Zhumagulov loves the left hook. He will throw low kicks to left hooks or vice versa. Zhumagulov has some good body attacks. He will close the distance with body shots & then come up into hooks. He will do the same with uppercuts into hooks. Zhumagulov has good forward pressure and cuts the cage off well. He has good head movement & defense. He can be low volume, and also be hittable at times. He just walks forward in straight lines at times & gets hit coming in. Zhumagulov will mix in some fake level changes into spins. He is a decent fighter overall. Zhalgas isn’t a power guy. He has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has only been finished one time by strikes.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov is a well-rounded fighter. He has fights where he wins with striking heavy game plans as well as grappling. Zhumagulov hits nice double leg takedowns, but his top control really isn’t very good. He will hit multiple takedowns in one round but isn’t dangerous & struggles to hold people down. He has only one career submission. Zhumagulov has above average takedown defense. He has been taken down & controlled in rounds of fights. Zhumagulov is defensively sound on the mat & has pretty good get-ups though. His last loss was due to being grinded out. Zhumagulov has very good cardio & the will to win. He will push hard in round three or five & is a durable, tough guy.

 

Paiva is only 1-2 in the UFC but I have been very impressed with him. He is a well-rounded fighter and I think he beats a lot of guys on the UFC roster. Zhalgas is making his UFC debut here and he does have some good wins under his belt and looks pretty decent, mainly in the striking department. This should be a fun fight, but I think Paiva has more ways to win and the higher ceiling in the UFC, so I am going to lean with him to win a decision here.

On DraftKings, Paiva is actually one of my least favorite favorites on the card. I do think he has potential to score well, I just like the potential for these other fighters around his salary more, and that is going to make him closer to a fade for me. Zhalgas is a fighter who I think is live here and he is my preferred play for that reason. I also think he is a decent cash punt if you want to get away from Holloway and/or Andrade because I think this fight goes all 3-rounds and he could win it. I don’t see him having the ceiling of any title fight underdog or a couple other guys, but this is a card I don’t like underdogs on, so he will be in the mix for me.

Winner – Raulian Paiva via Unanimous Decision

 

Maxim Grishin $8,100 vs Marcin Tybura $7,900

Maxim Grishin

Age: 36

Height: 6’3

Weight: 205

Reach: 76”

Gym: Akhmat Fight Club

From: Russia

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 25(LHW)

Last Fought: 9 Months

Last Five: 3-0-2

Current Streak: 1Draw

Betting Odds: -105

 

Maxim Grishin has accepted the call & is getting a late notice shot with the UFC. Grishin has enjoyed a good career already. He is a veteran of M-1, KSW & the PFL. Grishin has only one loss in his last 21 fights. He has beaten some name guys and done some good work. That has been exclusively at 205, and this will be his first HW fight since 2011. 6 of Grishin’s 7 losses have come at HW. Grishin isn’t super impressive to me. He has decent striking. He is more of a counter striker, but he will probe the jab & has heavy low kicks. Grishin will look for straight punch, blitz combos down the middle. He has a nice straight-right hand down the middle. Grishin will look for round kicks to the body & high kicks. Grishin likes to counter strike, keep the volume low & pot shot opponents. He does have big power & can put fighters out if he lands the right shot. He has 15 KO/TKO’s.

Maxim Grishin will mix it up & can grapple. He will use his body shots to disguise his level changes. Grishin has a good single leg takedown. He will push fighters to the cage & work from there. Grishin has good control in the clinch. He will hit some trips and throws. Grishin is heavy on top & likes to sit in half guard, land elbows, soften fighters up & eventually hit subs. He has good arm triangles. He will look to take the back & get rear naked chokes. Grishin has six submissions. Grishin struggled with his takedown defense against Jordan Johnson, but showed good get-ups, and is hard to control. He has been submitted three times in his career, but those were all a long time ago. Grishin is going to be undersized, but he is a big LHW. He will have the speed & cardio advantage here. He is taking this fight on short notice & it is his debut so who knows if any of that will affect him.

 

Marcin Tybura

Age: 34

Height: 6’3

Weight: 245

Reach: 78”

Gym: Ankos MMA

From: Poland

UFC Record: 5-5

Fight Matrix: 26

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -115

 

Marcin Tybura finally got off the snide in his last match. He snapped his two-fight losing streak winning a decision against Sergey Spivak. Tybura is light on his feet, uses a lot of straight punches, straight front kicks to the body and then will throw nice round head kicks. He will switch stances & try to give different looks. He has a decent jab and good counter right hooks. He will throw almost a leaping straight-left. He will throw a nice uppercut, left hook combo. His head movement isn’t bad, but he tends to hold his hands low. He can get hit clean when he does that and squares up making him even more hittable. Tybura doesn’t control the center well & fighters that pressure him can push him back. He tends to back straight up & doesn’t have good footwork. He will just cover up & move in a straight line making him an easy target to hit. He has been KO/TKO’d four times in his career. He has 7 KO/TKO’s himself.

Tybura is a good grappler. He has strong body lock takedowns and good double legs. He will look to control opponents against the cage as well, but he doesn’t do much from there, and just takes a break. He can be reversed and just have his back stuck against the cage as well. He does have very quick takedown shots, much faster than most heavyweights. He will front a jab or straight & duck under into blast doubles. In his fight with Spivak, he got several well-timed doubles. Tybura has shown good passing skills in the past. He does a great job of getting the mount and taking the back. He doesn’t do a ton of damage from those positions and if I was his coach I’d drill becoming more dangerous in those situations. If he could learn to do damage before looking to sink in subs, I think he could get way more finishes. His cardio isn’t bad, but he does slow down & lapses of judgement have cost him fights. Tybura has 6 submissions, but none in UFC.

 

Grishin is making his UFC debut on less than two weeks’ notice in the Heavyweight division. Grishin is more of a 205er so he will be giving up size here and he is now 36 years old as well. I still think I favor him in the power aspect though and I think he can knock Tybura out. I also think he is the better overall striker and can win a decision if this fight stays standing. I think Tybura has the better wrestling though and if he uses it I think he should probably win this fight a bit more than he loses it like the odds indicate. I would not lay juice on Tybura here though just because I don’t trust him as a fighter and I don’t trust his chin, so for that reason I am going to take the underdog to get an early KO.

This is maybe my least favorite fight to target for DK. This is HW, so it could come back and bite me, but we are relying on a finish from either guy to score well enough to win that milly. Neither guy strikes at a high rate and if this goes to a decision I don’t think either gets to 10x their salary. Tybura is going to have the size and wrestling advantage but he isn’t as dangerous as I’d like, and he has never even scored 90 points in a win. Grishin is my preferred play because I think he can test the chin of Tybura’s and I think he is live for a round 1 finish. Tybura is mostly going to be a fade for me but I don’t see this fight making its way into even 20% of my lineups.

Winner – Maxim Grishin via 2nd round (T)KO

 

Leonardo Santos $8,800 vs Roman Bogatov $7,400

Leonardo Santos

Age: 40

Height: 6’0

Weight: 155

Reach: 75”

Gym: Nova Uniäo

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 6-0-1

Fight Matrix: 23

Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W5

Betting Odds: -160

 

Leonardo Santos is finally back again, after yet another year long layoff. Leo’s UFC career has been kind of sad. He has been nothing short of amazing when he can enter the cage, but just hasn’t been able to. Santos has been in the UFC 7 years & only has 7 fights. He is unbeaten and taken out some top fighters. Santos just never got that push or fanfare due to his inactivity. He now is 40 years old & it may just be too late. He is also fighting a UFC newcomer here, which is a bit disrespectful. Leonardo Santos definitely didn’t look old in his last fight. He had a resounding one punch knockout. Santos’ striking has come a long way. He has had two knockouts in his last three fights. Santos is long, rangy & has good distance control. He has a very nice, low leg kick inside & outside. He has a very nice jab & a good one-two. He will throw a nasty left hook, straight-right combination. He has a nice counter left uppercut. He will throw a left uppercut, right hook combination. His lateral movement is good & he keeps fighters at the end of his counters with the jab, straight & overhand right. He is good at using his left hook to angle back to the center of the cage. Santos is excellent at pull countering with straight punches. He was able to land a straight-right hand counter on Stevie Ray that put him out cold. Santos has very nice round & front kicks to the body. He will throw nice counter knees to the body. He has heavy head kicks and will also mix in tricky high kicks. His defense does leave a lot to be desired. He doesn’t move his head well & opponents seem to be able to tag him with straight punches if they can get inside his reach. He tends to throw one at a time instead of combinations, so opponents who throw more than one can land counter combinations on him. He is heavy on his lead leg as well and can get it chewed up with leg kicks. When he starts to get hit, he gets gun shy & will shoot bad takedown attempts. He can allow opponents to walk him down, because he is solely looking to counter with one shot attacks usually. Going backwards for the majority of the fight can gas Santos out & he seems to have poor third rounds. Santos is dangerous in round one though. He was able to catch both Stevie Ray and Kevin Lee perfectly & finish them with punches in round one. Santos is a hard fighter to look good against even on the feet. He is good & long enough to land some counters that get his opponent’s attention, along with having a strong blast double. Fighters don’t commit because of the fear of being taken down, and it can make for low volume fights such as his one with Adriano Martins. Santos only has three career KO/TKO’s and has been knocked out once early in his career.

Leonardo Santos is a legend in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He is a long time black belt and has proven to a solid wrestler. Santos maybe isn’t the best offensive wrestler, but he is extremely hard to take down.  He has not been taken down since his UFC debut. He can be held against the cage & allow himself to lose rounds that way. We saw that when he fought Norman Parke. Santos has shown some great timing on double legs and has good clinch takedowns. Santos is super-fast with his back takes in scrambles even from standing. If he can get on top, obviously they’re in trouble. Santos has a fantastic arm triangle, good back takes and rear naked chokes. He is also excellent on bottom. We haven’t seen much of it in his UFC career, but Santos has an excellent butterfly guard. He will hit subs and sweeps off his back. Overall, Santos has 9 submission wins.

 

Roman Bogatov

Age: 29

Height: 5’9

Weight: 155

Reach: N/A

Gym: Fighter Gym

From: Russia

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 70

Last Fought: 11 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W10

Betting Odds: +140

 

Roman Bogatov is a 10-0 undefeated prospect & a welcomed addition to the UFC. He is getting a big opportunity here, fighting a borderline top fifteen opponent in his first UFC fight. Bogatov is credentialed. He is the current M-1 Champion, defending the belt two times. Bogatov has fought decent competition, but Santos is definitely a sizable step up. Watching Bogatov’s style, he reminds me a lot of Bartosz Fabinski. He is better on the feet than Bartosz, but not by a lot. Bogatov has a pressure style and likes to control the center. He has a hands down style and uses a lot of fakes, feints & head movement. Bogatov will switch stances also, but he isn’t very dangerous. He likes to use his lead hand, usually the left, and throw a lot of jabs & left hooks. He will feint level changes & throw straight-right hands. He likes to blitz forward behind one-twos. Bogatov will also fake level changes and come up into spinning attacks, elbows and backfists. He will throw some flying knees & superman punches. At times, Bogatov will get wild to close the distance. When he is on the back foot, his defense is not good and he’s very uncomfortable. Fighters who can stuff Bogatov’s takedowns will likely beat him. Bogatov is still an undefeated fighter & no one has solved the puzzle yet.

Roman Bogatov is a pretty good grappler. He has solid level changes & is a grinder. If he doesn’t get the first takedown, he is undeterred and will just continue to look for opportunities to shoot. Bogatov likes the double leg and that’s what he usually gets the fight to the mat with. On top, Bogatov is heavy and has good control. He likes to sit in half guard and work arm triangles. He has 3 arm triangles in his career. Bogatov will look for front chokes in scrambles when opponents try to work back to their feet. His Jiu-Jitsu is good but not great. He can get swept and has been threatened with submissions. Bogatov is good at scrambling and not accepting bottom position. Against a fighter like Leo Santos though, one mistake and it could be curtains. Bogatov has five submissions in 10 wins. Bogatov has good cardio, good round winning style, and should win UFC fights.

 

Bogatov looks like purely a wrestler. He does look strong with good top control but aside from that he doesn’t have a lot to offer. Santos is 40 years old now and rarely fights but he was really good. He is great at BJJ and he has looked good on the feet in a couple UFC fights as well. I think Bogatov is going to need to win 2 rounds here from holding Santos against the fence or on the ground to get his hand raised here and I think this is a bad matchup for him to do that. I do think he could beat some UFC guys, but Santos is too dangerous for him and I think he either submits him or knocks him out at some point in this fight.

On DraftKings, Bogatov is my preferred play here because if I were to rank my underdogs, then rank my favorites, I would have Bogatov higher on those lists. If he wins, I think he will be wrestling heavy and he could score well. He could also do a lot of holding against the cage and not scoring well, so I think even in a win he could be kicked off the optimal, but I still think we have to target him. Santos is hard to pay for because I like other favorites more and we are relying on a finish from him for him to be on the optimal. Even if that finish comes in the 2nd round I am not sure that puts him on the optimal, so I am fine with a fade on him. I also think he makes a great milly maker play for ownership reasons and I might have a few shots on him purely for that reason. Bogatov is a guy I will look to be overweight on though and I could see him getting multiple takedowns in all rounds here so that is what I will be hoping for, I just think Santos is more dangerous everywhere.

Winner – Leonardo Santos via 2nd round Submission

 

Makwan Amirkhani $8,600 vs Danny Henry $7,600

Makwan Amirkhani

Age: 31

Height: 5’10

Weight: 145

Reach: 72”

Gym: SBG Ireland

From: Finland

UFC Record: 5-2

Fight Matrix: 56

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -210

 

Makwan Amirkhani will be looking to get back on the winning track. He suffered a setback his last time out, losing to Shane Burgos by third round stoppage. Amirkhani has been inconsistent in recent years going just 2-2 in his last four UFC fights. He is a southpaw. He will use a lot of lateral movement, jabs & right hooks, to just maintain distance before finding a takedown. He will throw a jab, left straight combination. He will throw front kicks to the body. When he throws shots, he leaves his chin right up in the air, and I definitely feel Henry could land big shots over the top. He will use a lot of explosive action on the feet to close distance, like jumping kicks, and flying knees. He had a flying knee KO in less than 10 seconds in his UFC debut. His defense is porous in boxing range. He will hold his hands low, has his chin high & backs up in straight lines. He will also do a lot of reaching to try to get into the clinch or on a leg, & if opponents have good distance control they will make him pay for that. His takedown ability makes opponents hesitant to get close enough to him where he can shoot, and that’s how he survives. Amirkhani tries to goad opponents into a war, so they will get overaggressive & he can take them down as well. He doesn’t look like his punches pack much power, but he can finish with flying knees. Amirkhani just has one career TKO with a flying knee. He was rocked & dropped multiple times in his last match, but showed great recoverability, & has never been finished by strikes.

Makwan Amirkhani is an awesome wrestler. He has an excellent single leg takedown, and even if the initial entry isn’t great, he can stay connected & get it to the mat. He is very good at using the single leg to create a scramble & quickly take the back. He has good double legs as well, but his doubles can be a bit more telegraphed. He does tend to leave his head on the outside on takedown attempts and give opponents his neck. He has very good guillotine defense and will usually get free & have top position. He is excellent in scrambles, and usually will always be able to defend the submission & get top position. On top, he is very heavy & has good control. He has great elbows from half guard, but mainly side control. He is great at standing up in opponent’s guards, landing a punch, and passing the legs into side control. He will land body locks directly into side control. He will look for front chokes & guillotines and has a good rear naked choke. He is active off his back as well, and better than Henry there. He has a good guard & will attack with triangles & armbars. He is also good at sweeping to top position. Amirkhani is going to need to make this a grappling match. He has 10 submission victories & is crafty on the mat.

 

Danny Henry

Age: 31

Height: 6’0

Weight: 145

Reach: 70.5”

Gym: Higher Level Martial Arts

From: Scotland

UFC Record: 2-1

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +175

 

Danny Henry is making his return after a pretty long layoff. He hasn’t fought since March of last year where he was taken out quickly by Dan Ige. Henry is 2-1 in the UFC & is tough, scrappy competitor. Henry is a very tall FW & tries to fight long. He throws a lot of leg kicks & straight-right hands. He will throw nasty body kicks & very nice step-in knees to the body & head. He has nice front kicks up the middle. He does a great job of dropping his straight-right hand in & is very accurate and pinpoint. When he lands, it has big power. He will throw front elbows in close range. He will land nice, counter left hooks & closes the distance with nice hooks. He has nice uppercuts in close range. When he hurts opponents, he will swarm with shots for the finish. He doesn’t throw in combination & is very slow, due to that fighters are able to walk him down & land hard shots over the top. He floats his chin & is very susceptible to hooks. He was dropped with a left hook in his last fight very early. He has an amazing chin & is able to weather a storm & then turn on the pressure. He was able to survive getting dropped & almost finished by Daniel Teymur to come back & get the victory. He has power with 5 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has never been finished by strikes in his career.

Henry has alright grappling, but I wouldn’t say it’s the best. His wrestling is not very good in my opinion, but his length makes him dangerous in the clinch. He has nice uppercuts & short shots to the body. He will throw solid knees. He will go for takedowns against the cage. He does a good job of attacking with doubles. He will get in on a body lock & does a good job of getting on the back from standing. He has good control from the back, gets the body triangle and will look for RNCs. He will transition to the mount & lands nice G&P. He isn’t overwhelming on top and relies more on control. He doesn’t have great takedown defense. He stands tall & I don’t think he has a great game off his back. Daniel Teymur was able to take him down & control him on top for a couple minutes. He does have good front chokes & guillotines that he will attack with that are dangerous, but if fighters can safely put him on his back, I haven’t seen much. In his last fight, he did get dropped & submitted, but that doesn’t tell me much. He was able to stun Hakeem Dawodu & get a standing guillotine in less than one minute in his last match. He has 5 submissions & has never been subbed. Henry has great cardio & has great composure.

 

I think this is mainly grappler vs grappler, but I think Henry needs to be the striker in this match because I think Makwan has the edge on the ground. Henry is the better striker of the two though and he will be the one throwing more volume. I think the line could be a bit wide here because of that but I am still going to pick Makwan to win this fight on the ground. I think he can get a submission or win the first two rounds on the scorecards with his wrestling, but I would not want to lay over 2/1 on him.

There are a lot of fights I like both sides of for DraftKings this card and this is one of them. Makwan has 100+ potential with his wresting and submission abilities and if he wins I think it would come in rounds 1 or 2. That would score well with his salary and he is cheaper and lower owned than the title fight favorites. Hard to not like him here in GPPs. Henry, on the other hand, is live in this fight because he is the better striker, has a ground game as well, and will have more in the tank than Makwan and could finish him in rounds 2 or 3. I like that type of ceiling for a non-title fight underdog and I think he gives a realistic chance at a million dollars at his ownership. I think Makwan is still my preferred play in all formats, but I could see me having around 20-25% of both guys in GPPs.

Winner – Makwan Amirkhani via 1st round Submission

 

Muslim Salikhov $8,200 vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos $8,000

Muslim Salikhov

Age: 36

Height: 5’11

Weight: 170

Reach: 69.5”

Gym: Berkut FC

From: Russia

UFC Record: 3-1

Fight Matrix: 42

Last Fought: 9 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: -135

 

Muslim Salikhov will be looking to run his winning streak to four in a row. This fight with Elizeu Zaleski is a crossroads fight for both guys. The winner will likely get a chance to crack into the rankings. Salikhov is 36 years old so he can’t afford a setback. He did this camp back in Russia & not with Mark Henry like his last couple. Salikhov is extremely light on his feet. He has great distance control, in & out movement, and feints. He is super-fast closing the distance with both punches & kicks. Salikhov can fight going forwards and backwards. He will walk opponents into strikes along with using forward pressure, feints & counter punching. He has a nasty jab & heavy low kicks. He has a nice leaping left hook & overhand right. He will throw nasty left hook & straight-right counters as opponents try to get inside. He is always looking to set up spinning attacks which are extremely dangerous. He pull counters excellently with his punches & kicks. He has many KO’s with spinning techniques. He has flawless technique on his spinning back kicks both to the body & head. He will start low & attack the body until opponents lower their guard & then go high. He has excellent spinning backfists as well. He has a nasty switch kick to the body & head. This man is a problem on the feet. He has over 100 combined knockouts between his Kickboxing Wushu & MMA careers. He added another UFC knockout to his resume in his last fight in brutal fashion. Salikhov’s right hand is extremely powerful. Both his UFC knockouts have come courtesy of the right hand. His defense on the feet is excellent. He has great head movement, circles out excellently, and has great eyes. He catches kicks & counters with punches as his opponents are off balance. The only issue I would say he has is sometimes he can get hit with overhands after his opponent feints a takedown. Salikhov has been hit just 31 times in 3 fights & none of them were very significant. Overall, he is just very quick & hard to hit. He has never been knocked out in MMA. In 199 kickboxing matches he has been knocked out 1 time. Salikhov has 12 KO/TKO’s in MMA.

 

Muslim Salikhov isn’t an active grappler & I don’t expect this fight to hit the mat. Salikhov will utilize the clinch if opponents crash the distance aggressively. He will grab the over/under or double underhooks & push opponents to the fence. Salikhov doesn’t have the best control in the clinch & mostly just looks to disengage & attack with elbows off the break. Salikhov doesn’t go for takedowns. Muslim’s takedown defense is pretty solid. He digs underhooks well, uses the cage to defend & is explosive with sprawls. I don’t think Zaleski will be able to take Muslim down consistently. Salikhov has two arm triangle victories. Those were both against extremely low-level competition. This is probably going to be a standup fight. Salikhov has lost both of his matches by rear naked choke. Salikhov fights at a deliberate pace. He is a veteran & knows what he needs to do in there. He did get tired in the third round of his last fight & his cardio is questionable.

 

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos

Age: 33

Height: 5’11

Weight: 170

Reach: 73”

Gym: Cm Systems

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 8-2

Fight Matrix: 27

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +115

 

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos got back in the win column with a split decision victory over Alexey Kunchenko in Brazil. Zaleski fought that fight at the very first no fans card, so he will have experience in that regard. Zaleski will also be looking to defeat two Russians in a row. I will say his last two performances haven’t been his best. He was dominated by The Leach & followed that up with a win, but it was a controversial decision win. Zaleski is 8-2 in the UFC, 8-1 in his last 9 bouts, but still hasn’t broke through. He never got the matchups he needed to catapult him in the rankings or raise his name value. Zaleski has taken out some really good fighters like Omari Akhmedov, Lyman Good, and Kunchenko, but those guys don’t have the name value either. Zaleski has a nice jab & good inside leg kicks. He has a nice straight-right hand & throws hard right hooks. He will throw jab, overhand right combos. He also will throw hard hook combos with both hands. He will rip the body with hard left hooks & straight-rights. He will throw rear leg body kicks to a straight-right hand combination. He has good head kicks with body legs. His front leg is good. He has nice lead leg kicks, round & sidekicks to the body, and head kicks. He has nice capoeira kicks & KO’d Sean Strickland with a spinning heel kick. He will throw spinning heel kicks to the body as well. He will throw nasty flying knees. He is good at using lateral footwork to walk opponents into his kicks, hooks & overhands. In his last couple matchups, his boxing defense has been terrible. He always gets hit & tends to get hurt and recover, but vs The Leach, he was beat from pillar to post & then finished. He has been in war after war in the UFC, and his chin finally cracked. Even in his last fight you could see he was a bit more timid to be hit. That was the first time he was finished by strikes in his career. Usually he has an amazing chin & recoverability. If both fighters hurt each other and this fight gets wild expect Zaleski to be the one left standing. Zaleski has 14 KO/TKO’s in his career.

Zaleski is an above average grappler. He is good in the clinch, he has nice double underhooks and will land nasty knees to the body. He will throw nice elbows over the top. He has hard hook & uppercut combinations off the break. Zaleski is not a super active grappler, but he showed good fight IQ getting a quick submission in his last fight. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has shown some decent timing on double & single leg takedowns. I see him having an advantage on top. We haven’t seen his top game much, but he finished Strickland with some brutal hammerfists & submitted Curtis Millender. He was able to drop Max Griffin & quickly take the back, but didn’t keep the position long. He has attempted some tricky subs in the octagon like Peruvian neck ties. Zaleski has only three career submissions, and has been submitted twice himself. He has fantastic cardio & an iron will.

 

I think Salikhov is the more dangerous and powerful striker here with the better shot of getting a finish. However, he doesn’t throw with much volume, so it is hard to trust him in a decision because I feel pretty good about Dos Santos being the more active striker and more dangerous on the ground as well. This is a tough one for me to call and I have no real lean either way. I would say this is a 50/50 fight, so I would really be against laying juice on either of them and it would be dog or pass for me on the betting line. I will lean with Dos Santos as my pick for that reason, but if you like Salikhov here I think taking the TKO line get you more value.

 

On DraftKings, even though I picked Santos to get the win, this is more so Salikhov or pass for me. Salikhov is the one with the higher ceiling here and I do think he can get a round 1 KO. At $8.2k we would need that for the milly if it happens. If Santos wins, I think he would score 70-80 in a decision and I am not very interested in that. He could get a submission and have a higher ceiling that way, but I think this fight stays striking and Salikhov is the one with a ceiling in that scenario. I don’t see me getting much exposure to Santos though and if I was making 20 or less I would just full fade. Even though I am picking him to win, I would rather take shots on cheaper fighters I am picking to lose but have higher ceilings in a win.

 

Winner – Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos via Split Decision

 

Volkan Oezdemir $8,400 vs Jiri Prochazka $7,800

Volkan Oezdemir

Age: 30

Height: 6’2

Weight: 205

Reach: 75”

Gym: Fight Move Academy

From: Switzerland

UFC Record: 5-3

Fight Matrix: 11

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: -145

 

Volkan Oezdemir will be looking to continue his rise to a second UFC title shot. He has won back to back fights against good fighters & looking to make it three in a row. Volkan Oezdemir is a big, powerful kick boxer. He has a nice jab, he will double and triple up on it as well as use it to attack the body. He will mix in lead left hooks. He has crazy power in his short hooks with both hands. He knocked out Misha Cirkunov with a 6” punch. He will throw a left hook, straight-right combo. He will throw a lead right or overhand right. He has heavy leg kicks and strong body kicks. He will throw the occasional head kick, especially when opponents are trying to circle off the cage. He was landing beautiful step-in knees in his last match. Those won’t be available vs such a tall guy like Prochazka most likely though. Volkan becomes very hittable when he gets tired & his shots come much more labored. He has a great chin, he is a long-time training partner of Anthony Rumble Johnson and took some huge shots against OSP and DC. He shows good ability to fire back when he is getting lit up and is always dangerous even when he’s hurt. He will stick in the pocket with a high guard and try to find his own openings to land shots. His defense can leave a lot to be desired at times. He doesn’t have great movement and tends to just back straight up to the cage with a high guard when he gets stung. If he is going to KO/TKO a fighter, it’s usually going to be early. He has 5 KO/TKO’s in under 1 minute, and 11 overall all in round one. He has been finished by G&P TKO once vs Daniel Cormier.

Volkan Oezdemir is improving a lot as a grappler. He showed a decent explosive double leg & body lock trip in his matches with Dom Reyes & Anthony Smith. In top position, he has shown brutal ground & pound early in his career, but Smith & Reyes was largely able to stay safe. His takedown defense has gotten way better. He sees entries coming & denies them much better, along with being an athletic guy as it is with heavy hips. When he was taken down by Ilir Latifi in his last match, he was able to dig an underhook immediately & stand back up. He is physically strong & does a good job of framing & throwing short punches & elbows. Hanging around in the clinch with Volkan is a scary proposition. He will be very aggressive with short hooks & uppercuts and put opponents out. We saw the brutal finish he had of Jimi Manuwa in similar fashion. Off Oezdemir’s back, he has looked like a fish out of water. He was dominated and finished by DC and has been submitted by Kelly Admundson & Anthony Smith. When Smith got the takedown in round 3, he was able to almost immediately take the back. Oezdemir showed some heart getting out of a deep rear naked choke, but Smith readjusted & ultimately got the tap. Oezdemir has one career submission & been submitted twice.

 

Jiri Prochazka

Age: 27

Height: 6’4

Weight: 205

Reach: N/A

Gym: Jetsaam Gym Brno

From: Czech Republic

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 14

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W10

Betting Odds: +125

 

Jiri Prochazka is making his long-awaited debut in the UFC. He has terrorized organizations for years destroying almost all his opponents. Jiri has 23 KO’s, and 26 of his 30 fights have finished in the first round. Jiri is big for the weight class, he is very athletic & has one shot power. Jiri utilizes a lot of movement. He will switch stances, is very herky jerky & has power with both hands. Jiri has a good lead hand. He will throw jab flurries & lead hooks. Jiri will use a lot of feints, fakes, ducks and dips to freeze opponents. He will shoot straight punches down the middle followed by hooks. He will use his jab to get range & then bomb a straight or hook. He will switch stances after the jab & land a switch stance strike. Jiri will throw winging overhands and come back into backfists. He has good uppercuts in close range. Jiri doesn’t kick very often but will throw some good high kicks & front kicks up the middle. He has nasty, devastating flying knees. When Jiri gets his confidence and goes forward, and is moving in & out, he is super dangerous. Jiri leaves a lot to be desired defensively. He will come forward with his hands down & leave his chin exposed. He has a good chin but is very hittable and gets his head snapped back a lot. He was knocked out cold by King Mo. Jiri has been KO’d twice in his career. Prochazka has 23 KO’s.

Jiri Prochazka is not a great grappler. He isn’t an offensive wrestler & doesn’t have the best takedown defense. He is dangerous due to his flying knees, and counters when fighters try to get in on the legs. When they do get in, he’s usually getting taken down. Jiri isn’t bad off his back. He will fish for guillotines and throw up triangles. He doesn’t look very high level though & his guard can get passed pretty easily. King Mo was able to posture up & land some big elbows that cut Jiri open in their first fight. I’ve seen Brandon Halsey take his back & almost submit him. Jiri made a big mistake looking to use head movement to avoid punches when Halsey was on his back & left his neck out. Jiri does have okay get-ups. He will wait for the right time to explode, and when he gets on top he is super dangerous. He will rain down shots & finish the fight. Jiri likes to finish with strikes more than subs. He has just two submission wins. Jiri has been submitted one time. Jiri is a welcome addition to the UFC. He is super dangerous & an action fighter.

 

Jiri is kind of a wild man who goes out there to kill or be killed. He has 30 professional fights and has only been to a decision once, and he has 23 first round finishes. I do think he is very live for that early finish in this fight as well, but I have to lean with Volkan being the better fighter and I would say the odds are probably right here. If Volkan can weather the early storm, I think he starts to take over this fight and probably gets a finish of his own. He could get an early finish himself, but I think the longer this fight goes the more it will favor him, and Jiri is too hittable for me to think he will be able to last all 3 rounds without taking a big shot.

This fight has a -195 FDGTD line and that makes me like both sides of it. Either guy could get a 1st round KO here and at their mid-range price that could kick off a high owned title fight winner. Jiri is my preferred play because I don’t really like underdogs on this slate and he is one who has potential and could get a KO. I don’t think either guy would score well in a decision though so it’s not a must have fight but I do think there is a decent chance the winner ends up on the optimal with a finish. I think Volkan would be the better Milly Maker play though because I expect Jiri to be high owned but Volkan will go overlooked with all the other high-priced favorites people would rather get to. I wouldn’t want to trust either guy in cash games though, but I am not completely against Jiri just because I think he is one of the more live dogs on the card.

Winner –  Volkan Oezdemir via 2nd round (T)KO

 

Amanda Ribas $9,500 vs Paige VanZant $6,700

Amanda Ribas

Age: 26

Height: 5’6

Weight: 125

Reach: 66”

Gym: American Top Team

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 3-0

Fight Matrix: 13

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W4

Betting Odds: -750

 

Amanda Ribas will be looking to add another big-name to her victims list. Fresh off dominant victories over Mackenzie Dern & Randa Markos, she is getting another big opportunity fighting Paige VanZant. Ribas is jumping back in pretty quickly, and actually has already competed with no fans. She should be ready to go here. Ribas has gotten much better with her striking. Her jab and one-two are very nice, and she will front her way in well and pull opponents into the shots. Ribas has pretty good footwork, and nice kicks. She has heavy low kicks, and solid round kicks to the body and head. She has a nice inside low kick to hook combination. She will mix in spinning shots as well. Ribas stays technical and sharp for three rounds. She will attack to the body and head with shots. She will walk opponents down, and you can tell her shots have power. Ribas has 3 KO/TKO’s. She was finished by strikes in her one loss.

Amanda Ribas is also very good in the grappling realm. She faced the best Jiu-Jitsu girl in the division in her last fight & nullified her on the mat. She is excellent with judo and has great hip throws and clinch takedowns. She also looks to have nice defensive wresting skills as well. In her last match, she had a nasty hip throw on Makenzie Dern, and then controlled and beat her up from inside her guard. Ribas was able to dominate in the clinch vs Emily Whitmire. She is very good at circling to the back from standing position. Once she has an opponent’s back, she has excellent control & rear naked chokes. Ribas has finished 3 fights via submission.

 

Paige VanZant

Age: 26

Height: 5’4

Weight: 125

Reach: 65”

Gym: Gracie Barra Portland

From: Nevada

UFC Record: 5-3

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 1 Year 6 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +525

 

Paige VanZant has been in the news for all the wrong reasons recently. She is in a public dispute with the UFC regarding pay & hasn’t fought in over a year. VanZant has been struggling with the same arm for a long time now, and it has really stunted her career. She also seems unhappy and ready to maybe go to Bellator with her husband. The UFC is doing her no favors here with this being the last fight of her contract, she is getting an extremely tough matchup in Amanda Ribas. VanZant has regressed since leaving team Alpha Male and has lost back to back fights. Her striking is not very good. She doesn’t use her hands much and relies on a lot of kicks from the outside. She will throw a jab and left hook, but her hands are slow & don’t have much power. She will throw overhand rights & a lot of spinning backfists. VanZant will throw leg kicks inside & outside & a lot of jumping round house kicks to the body & head. She will also throw superman punches & likes to throw a lot of attacks she can begin from a long way out. She is better at landing the jumping round house to the body, but ever since she got a knockout with it over Bec Rawlings she has relied on it to the head far too much. She only has 2 KO/TKO’s in her career & doesn’t have much power. She is tough & will take a lot of punishment and keep coming, and she has never been finished with strikes.

VanZant is a scrappy wrestler, but not the most effective. She will relentlessly force herself into the clinch & go for body lock & trip takedowns. She really likes to attack with a hip toss that has led to her back being taken multiple times. She will sometimes shoot double legs &/or push opponents to the cage & chain together takedown attempts. On top, she is pretty strong. She has good ground & pound and throws a lot of volume. She does a good job of transitioning and will move to mount & the back where she will land shots & go for submissions. She is strong in the scrambles & has solid overall takedown defense. She was taken down & controlled on her back in her last fight against Ostavich, & she didn’t show much at all off her back. VanZant did eventually capitalize on a mistake from Ostavich who got too high on the back. Paige was able to reverse and then hit an armbar for the win. Overall, I think she looked very bad in the fight though. VanZant has 3 submissions & has been submitted twice herself & has had mixed success on the ground in her UFC career. She has good cardio & will continue to come forward for all three rounds.

 

I think this is a terrible matchup for PVZ and I do think Ribas probably does win this fight 9 out of 10 times like the odds indicate. Ribas is better everywhere here and I think the only way she would lose is to submission from bottom, a guillotine, or a rear naked choke if Paige can get her back. I just think Ribas smokes her on the feet and she can mop her on the floor as well. Ribas should control every minute of this fight and either get a finish or a clear 30-27 at worst. I don’t see how PVZ even wins a round here and I would expect at least one 10-8 round if this goes the distance.

This is Ribas or pass for me, with a pass probably being the main lean. I love Ribas in this fight and I think she scores well, I just have a hard time paying up for her when I can pay less for 3 title favorites instead. She doesn’t have the 120+ upside they do IMO, so I won’t end up with a lot of her. However, neither will the field for the same reasons and that is the reason she will be making my player pool. I think she will go lower owned because she is the most expensive on a card with 3 title fights, and I think she can score 100-110 here in a finish or decision victory. I could see her getting multiple takedowns and passes in every round here and I expect her to dominate on the feet as well. It is just more likely that she scores 85-95 and the title favorites would probably be scoring more. She is a great cash game play though if you can fit her and PVZ will be a full fade for me. Anything can happen though, and she will probably be close to 5% owned so if you want to take milly maker shots for that reason then I think that is fine and could be a path to the milly if something crazy happens.

Winner – Amanda Ribas via Unanimous Decision

 

Rose Namajunas $9,000 vs Jessica Andrade $7,200

Rose Namajunas

Age: 28

Height: 5’5

Weight: 115

Reach: 65”

Gym: Team Elevation

From: Colorado

UFC Record: 6-3

Fight Matrix: 4

Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -220

 

Rose Namajunas is a dynamic fighter both on the feet and on the ground and has dominated her last two opponents finishing them. Rose has great movement and will move in and out and enter from different angles landing overhand rights and a nasty left hook that dropped Joanna. She is very flowy with her combinations and can just drop strikes in and get out of the way. She has a very good jab and very good straight-right counters. On the outside, she gets better as the fight goes on and unless opponents make it ugly, she will start to really piece them up from the outside. She has nice leg kicks as well and had a nasty head kick against Michelle Waterson off the break. She was making Andrade miss badly in the first fight. She needs to use a lot of movement, jabs, & kicks to keep Andrade at the end of her shots & finesse her. She did eat a lot of low kicks & body shots in her last fight with Jessica and it looked like she was slowing down. Rose only has 1 TKO, but she does have power, especially in her kicks. She has never been finished by strikes. In her last fight with Andrade, everyone knows she was slam KO’d.

Rose is a very good Jiu-Jitsu player and has some great submissions in the past. Rose isn’t the strongest competitor, but she still has solid takedowns. She will attack with an odd trip takedown off a punch combination that is very effective and will go for singles as well. She sometimes can get bullied in the clinch and hit with punches and hurt like vs Torres or hit with knees and elbows and worn down like vs Karolina. She was taken down & controlled by Carla Esparza, and she needs to have her grappling on point to win this fight. She is very opportunistic with her Jiu-Jitsu and will dive on submissions, go for flying armbars and standing rear naked chokes, etc. She has solid ground and pound and does a great job of taking the back. Andrade tends to overextend on combinations & Joanna was able to take her back standing several times in the later rounds, I could see Rose using that mistake against Jessica and taking her back too. Rose has 8 submissions & has finished 9 of her 11 wins. In her last fight, she struggled to defend the lifts of Jessica Andrade, and even in the first round she was almost slammed a couple times. Rose needs to address that in the rematch. She is 2-2 in decisions, and always struggles with cardio.

 

Jessica Andrade

Age: 28

Height: 5’2

Weight: 115

Reach: 62”

Gym: Paraná Vale Tudo

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 11-5

Fight Matrix: 3

Last Fought: 11 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +180

 

Jessica Andrade is a powerhouse, terminator type fighter. She keeps extreme pressure on opponents and is constantly walking them down. She will attack the body & head with ripping hooks & overhands. She will throw a left hook to the body to a left hook to the head combination. When she backs opponents up towards the cage, she has the cardio to unload with long combinations & try to overwhelm and take opponents out. She landed a nasty right hook that knocked her opponent out cold in her last fight. She will occasionally throw leg kicks, but she is almost exclusively a boxer. She has a great chin and will continue to march forward even after being hit. She tends to only come in on straight lines & when she fought Joanna she was throwing at air a lot. She can be countered with straight punches, kicks, and doesn’t really care about defense. She has been dropped a couple times in fights, but largely has been able to eat shots no problem. In her last fight, that finally caught up to her. She was hurt in the clinch and finished off brutally very fast. Andrade has 7 KO/TKO’s & has been finished by strikes three times.

Andrade is an excellent wrestler. She is a tank and will manhandle opponents. When she gets in the clinch, she can elevate opponents & get big slams or get big trip takedowns. She had one of the best slam takedowns in UFC history in her last fight with Namajunas. She took Claudia Gadelha on some rides with huge slam takedowns. She doesn’t shoot takedown shots much, but when she gets in the clinch fighters are getting taken down. When she gets in top position, she has heavy, thudding ground & pound and has finished a couple fights with it. She will try to move to dominant positions & finish the fight. She has 7 career submissions. She will jump on guillotines & she has decent submissions. She has been submitted a couple times herself, but at 135 lbs. Andrade has phenomenal cardio & needs it here.

 

This is a rematch from a year ago when Andrade knocked Namajunas out with a slam to take the UFC title. This time it is only 3-rounds and we have Namajunas as almost a 2-1 favorite. Rose did look like the much better fighter in that first fight until she got slammed and I think she looks better this time as well. Andrade does have real power though, so she can get a knockout with her hands or apparently a slam, but I think she is going to need the KO to win this fight. I see Rose being the smoother striker landing more shots and using her movement to avoid the power from Andrade. I was thinking we would get a better line on Rose here since she lost the first fight but that isn’t the case, so I don’t think I would want to lay the price here unless she drops a bit, but Rose is the pick and she could get a finish of her own.

This is a tough one for me on DraftKings. On paper, I think Andrade is the best underdog play on the slate and if she wins she probably breaks the slate with 100+ at a cheap salary. I def like her and think she is my preferred play for that reason. However, I think everyone is thinking that and I expect her to be the highest owned dog because people already saw her beat and score 100+ against Rose so they can see it happening again. I don’t know that I like her more than the field does, and I think Rose is going to go under owned because of the people around her. I still think Andrade would be the better dog to use but I think Rose is the better option in the milly maker. I could see Rose getting a KO or a submission in this fight and she scored 41 in a 2-round loss in their first fight, so she could score well in a decision as well with the pace this fight should take place at. That is making me change my mind a bit and making Rose my preferred play for contrarian reasons. I also think you can fade this fight and hope that Rose wins with 80-90 points because that probably takes it off the optimal. I am not sure what I will do here yet but those are my thoughts and I am guess I go overweight on Rose and underweight to Andrade. Andrade is the better cash game play though and even in a decision loss she has a very high floor, so I think she is a great play in that format.

Winner –  Rose Namajunas via Unanimous Decision

 

Petr Yan $9,300 vs Jose Aldo $6,900

Petr Yan

Age: 27

Height: 5’7

Weight: 135

Reach: 67”

Gym: Tiger Muay Thai

From: Russia

UFC Record: 6-0

Fight Matrix: 4

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W9

Betting Odds: -210

 

Petr Yan enters the young lion & big favorite to win the BW belt. He is undefeated in the UFC, and his only loss is a split decision in 2016. Yan is 6-0 in the UFC, but this is definitely a step up in competition. This is also Yan’s first title fight & five round fight in the UFC. Petr Yan is an animal though and chomping at the bit for this opportunity. On the feet, Petr Yan is an elite pressure fighter with very polished boxing skills. He walks opponents down and tries to break them. Yan stays very tight & is defensively sound. He can switch stances seamlessly. He does a great job of cutting off the cage, not chasing & taking his opportunities to strike when fighters’ backs are against the fence. Yan sets his boxing combinations up very well. He has great fakes & feints, will change up the speed of his punches, and go high/low attacking the body. Yan has a very nice jab he will shoot to the body & head. He likes to throw the jab to the body & then come over the top with an overhand right. He has a nasty straight-right hand and will follow with a fade away overhand left. He will throw hard one-twos down the pipe. He will switch stances, throw quick straight-lefts, and he has great uppercuts in close. Yan’s left hand is deadly. He has huge power with it & it’s very accurate. Yan has a nasty left hook & overhand left. He does an excellent job of switching stances mid combination & catching fighters with the left hand. We saw him drop Jimmie Rivera this way. Yan is awesome at slipping and returning with punches inside. He has great head movement & is very defensively sound. Yan is very good at circling away from blitzes, pivoting and retaking the center of the octagon. Petr Yan is a good kicker as well. Yan has good low kicks & oblique kicks. He will throw hard round kicks to the body & head. The head kick he landed in close quarters to KO Uriah Faber was a thing of beauty. Yan will mix kicks into his punching combinations. He has good spinning attacks. He is just a savage on the feet. Yan can be hit at times, because he admires his work in the pocket. His pressure style & always coming forward makes it almost impossible for him not to get touched a bit as well. He is a bit heavy on his lead leg like most boxers. Sometimes Yan can overextend with his right hand & be available to counter. I feel Yan can be susceptible to body shots as well at times. Jin Soo Son had success landing body shots. Having said that, Yan is extremely durable & takes big shots with little reaction. He has never been finished by strikes. Yan has 6 KO/TKO’s in 14 wins. He isn’t a one punch knockout guy, but he has power.

Petr Yan is a good grappler. His wrestling & Jiu-Jitsu aren’t on the level of his striking, but he’s growing and improving every fight. Training at Tiger Muay Thai has helped Yan’s clinch game a lot. He is good at working wrist control & throwing uppercuts in the single collar, but he will also land knees and elbows from the Thai plum at times. Yan isn’t super active in the clinch, but he is good at landing a few shots & disengaging. I have seen Yan land some clinch throws in his early fights. Yan was killing Uriah Faber with shots off the break in the clinch. Petr Yan is excellent at using his defensive boxing to wrestle. Against Faber, Yan was slipping the overhand right, and ducking under & taking the back standing. From there he was hitting a weird mat return variation he uses a lot. He will lock the hands, drop to a knee, & pull opponents over the knee hitting a trip. Yan will shoot some blast doubles when he has opponents against the cage. He isn’t a super active wrestler overall though. Yan isn’t the greatest on top, but he is aggressive and will look to finish if he can get into a dominant position. He will get into the wrestling ride position & rain down big shots. I have seen him take mount & pound some guys out. Yan isn’t a submission threat. Petr Yan has strong takedown defense himself. He has heavy & fast hips. Yan is good at cutting angles to avoid fighters getting in on his legs. He’s very good at getting his hips back and framing on the head. Yan has pretty good scrambling ability & is hard to hold down. When fighters can cement position on top, he doesn’t look great. That is definitely the weakest part of his game. He can be passive & just lay on his back. In his fight with Jin Soo Son, Son was able to control him for about two minutes. Yan was attempting to use butterfly guard, but it didn’t look very strong, and Son was able to posture and pass his guard a couple times. Son even took the back of Petr Yan. Yan was able to eventually scramble back to his feet but showed some deficiencies there. Jose Aldo has actually stated that Yan trained with him to help his ground game. Aldo was able to dominate Yan on the mat in their training sessions. Yan has just one career guillotine submission. His main strengths in this fight are going to be youth, cardio & durability. His cardio is elite. Wearing on Aldo & keeping a high pace is going to be a huge part of the game plan if he’s to win. Yan is very hungry & wants to take out another legend and cement his legacy.

 

Jose Aldo

Age: 33

Height: 5’7

Weight: 135

Reach: 70”

Gym: Nova União

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 10-5

Fight Matrix: 3

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +175

 

Jose Aldo is getting one more crack at UFC gold & becoming a two-division champion. He has lost his last two title fights & it’s probably his last chance. Aldo has lost two in a row, but his last fight was highly contested with most feeling he won. Aldo looked very good at BW and will be looking to replicate a similar performance vs Yan. Jose Aldo is one of the best strikers of all time. Aldo is extremely economical & accurate with his shots, and fights like a sniper. He has a tremendous jab, and lateral footwork making it extremely hard for opponents to get inside. He does a great job of faking the jab to create an opening for his straight-right hand & does an excellent job of jabbing, stepping back allowing his opponent to go first & countering with hard shots. He has nasty counter right straights & hooks. He likes to throw left hooks & straight-left hands into hard leg & body kicks. He does a great job of faking & feinting the same combinations he lands, really making his opponent always have to be reacting to him instead of creating their own offense. Aldo has some of the best leg kicks in MMA history, but really hasn’t thrown them much in recent fights. This is a strike he needs to get back to in this matchup and try to batter the lead leg of Yan. Aldo has amazing head movement & will slip and return in the pocket with hard hooks to the body. He has nasty step-in knees to the body when opponents try to get inside & will also throw flying knees which are devastating. He has finished multiple fights via flying knee KO. He will throw nice spinning body kicks and has good head kicks. Aldo is still extremely explosive & powerful and definitely the fighter with more one shot knockout power. He has always been one of the fastest fighters in the UFC, and it will be interesting to see who is faster in this matchup on the night. Aldo has 17 KO/TKO’s in his illustrious career, but his ability to take a shot has weakened, and he has been finished by strikes 3 times, all in his last 6 fights.

Aldo is in my opinion the best anti grappler in MMA history. The ability he has to deny takedown attempts & make fighters pay for shooting is absolutely uncanny. He throws the front knees up the middle & flying knees to stop takedown attempts, along with very accurate uppercuts. Aldo is nasty in the clinch. He has great knees to the body & was able to get a highlight reel, flying knee KO of Chad Mendes directly off the break. He does a great job of limp legging out of single legs & sprawling on doubles. He has a great whizzer to deny single legs and will land hard hammerfists to the head. He rarely shoots takedowns, but he does have good reactive double legs, and decent clinch takedowns.

 

This is a title fight to see who wins the belt that Cejudo retired with. I have been very high on Yan and I have called him a future champion. I didn’t think it would come from beating Aldo, but here we are. I don’t think this is a runaway at all, but I do like Yan in this fight. I think he is the more dangerous striker who will be throwing more volume and I see him having more success the longer this fight goes. I think Aldo can have success though and if he uses his leg kicks like he used to then I think that will help his chances here. I think he could get a knockout of his own here, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him win 3 rounds on the judges’ scorecards to get his hand raised that way. I just have to lean with Yan and I think he lands a lot of hard shots in this fight and ends up putting Aldo away in the last half of the fight.

This is my least favorite DK target of the 3 title fights, but still close to an all-in fight IMO. I think of the three title fight favorites, Yan clearly has the lowest ceiling in a decision win. He also, IMO, has a lower shot of getting the victory than Usman and Volkanovski as well. He will also be popular along with all the other championship fighters, so that is a reason to possibly go underweight to Yan if you want. However, he has the best shot on the card at winning ITD at +110 and he does throw at a high enough pace to possibly break the slate with a finish in a 5-round fight, so it is hard to want to go underweight to him and he will be in a lot of my lineups. Aldo, who I think is the underdog with the best shot of winning in a title fight, is my favorite DK target of the 3 because I think he could be the lowest owned of the three and I could see him winning by KO or taking 3 rounds of this fight. At his salary I would think any win has a good chance of putting him on the optimal and this is Yan’s toughest test to date by far. I think Aldo might be my preferred play because I think I will be overweight to the field on him where I am probably in line with the field on Yan, but that still probably puts me with a higher percentage of Yan lineups as well so I don’t have a strong preference in this fight and if you want to be contrarian then this is the title fight to fade, you just need Yan to win a back and forth decision for that to work.

Winner –  Petr Yan via 4th round (T)KO

 

Alexander Volkanovski $9,100 vs Max Holloway $7,100

Alexander Volkanovski

Age: 31

Height: 5’6

Weight: 145

Reach: 71”

Gym: City Kickboxing

From: Australia

UFC Record: 7-0

Fight Matrix: 2

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W18

Betting Odds: -210

 

Alexander Volkanovski is a well-rounded fighter with a heavy grappling base. Volkanovski is a solid striker. He is very fast, closes the gap quickly & is constantly fronting & faking. He shut down Aldo’s game with the feints & always winning the lead foot positioning battle. He has a nice jab, and good leg kicks. He will jab to the body. He likes to throw a counter overhand right as fighters close the distance. He will also use the overhand right as a lead to close the distance and get in the clinch. He was able to rock Elkins multiple times with his overhand right and drop him. He does a good job of sticking in the pocket, sliding in & out and returning with left hooks and overhand rights. He likes to throw body & head kicks with his lead leg. He keeps heavy pressure on opponents always owning the cage & pushing opponents backwards. He does a good job of faking level changes to try to create openings for his strikes. He will close the distance with a straight-left, right hook, right uppercut combination. He doesn’t throw a lot in combination most of the fight and will mostly use one or two shots attacks. He likes to slide away from shots and return. In his fight with Max Holloway, he landed a lot of low kicks, and did a great job of closing the distance with great footwork. He was able to get inside, take away the reach from Max and when Max was touching him he would land big overhands over the top to ruin his rhythm. He is powerful, but he doesn’t possess one shot power. He has 11 KO/TKO’s in 19 wins. He was TKO’d in his lone loss.

Volkanovski is a strong wrestler, and that’s what he has used to earn the majority of his victories. He does a great job of using his striking to get inside, and he will duck under into the body lock clinch. He is very strong and can just bull fighters over when he gets his hands clasped around the back. He will shoot reactive double legs and does a good job of using it to push opponents against the cage if he can’t get the takedowns. He will dig double underhooks and does a great job of controlling opponents against the cage and banking control time. He is very strong in those positions and can lift and slam opponents when he gets his hands connected with his opponents against the cage. He is strong in the clinch with short punches & control. He will use a spinning elbow to disengage, and it’s an effective technique. On top, he is very good. He does a great job of moving to half guard where he will posture up and land heavy G&P. He has great control and will put a lot of damage on opponents from top position. He is going to want to mix it up in this fight & keep the pace high. Volkanovski has the cardio to potentially match Holloway & doesn’t get tired.

 

Max Holloway

Age: 28

Height: 5’9

Weight: 145

Reach: 69”

Gym: Hawaii Elite MMA

From: Hawaii

UFC Record: 17-5

Fight Matrix: 2

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +175

 

Max Holloway is one of the best strikers in the UFC. He has arguably the best cardio & volume in the UFC. Holloway has a nasty jab, and a very good one-two. He has a very nice left hook & likes to throw a lot of jab, left hook combinations. He will throw jab, left hook, straight-right hand combinations. He will dig to the body with big hooks. He will pull counter excellently with his one-two. He will switch stances mid combination & never allows opponents to rest. He will land a combination, then use his straight-right to move to southpaw and continue the combo with a right jab to a straight-left combo. He has nasty left kicks & jump knees to the body along with hooks & has body shot finishes. He is excellent fighting in close range. He will touch opponents, pull back & counter with return combinations. He has a nasty spinning back to the body. His conditioning and ability to just continue to walk opponents down and drown them with pressure is what makes him an all-time great. He isn’t a one punch knockout fighter, but his volume is something not many fighters can handle. He has 10 KO/TKO’s including 4 out of his last five wins. He has a hell of chin, but he is hittable. He puts himself in danger to take damage. He has never been finished by strikes.

Holloway has excellent footwork & while he isn’t a mover he is very hard to shoot against. He has great hips & very good defense against the cage. When he gets taken down, he tends to pop right back up. He has the cardio to defend attempts or find his way back to his feet and be unfazed. He will counter takedowns with guillotines. He doesn’t go for offensive takedowns, and really only is in top position if he sweeps or drops opponents. He has shown a strong top game against an already hurt Aldo. He was able to keep top position, earn dominant position & pound out Aldo. Holloway has two submissions & was submitted once by Poirier.

 

This is a rematch where Volkanovski took Holloway’s title. Volkanovski clearly won their first fight and his leg kicks were a big factor. He also had the cardio to hang with Holloway over 5-rounds and that has been a big problem for other fighters in the past. I see this fight going very similar to their first fight though and I have to lean with Volkanovski to get the win. He is the more powerful guy who is more likely to get a knockout or takedowns, and if Holloway can’t figure out a way to stop the leg kicks here then I think it will be tough for him to win. Holloway needs to throw some calf kicks of his own and use his movement to minimize the leg kicks and if he can do that and land enough volume on the feet then he is live to win at least 3-rounds here for the upset. I think the line is about right here though and I will take Volkanovski to win 3 or 4 rounds here.

This is probably my favorite fight on the card and the one I am going to have a hard time not going 100% all-in on. This should be the highest paced fight on the card, so it is an auto stack in cash for me and I think you can even stack it in GPPs. In their first fight, Volkanovski had 109 DK points in a decision win that had zero takedowns, knockdowns, reverses, or advances. I think that he has a floor of 100 here with potential to even finish the fight, so he is my preferred play here and a core play for me. I don’t know that 109 would lock him onto the optimal lineup again at this salary with two other title fights, but I sure would take it and I think he could score more this time. Holloway is an easy lock for the optimal lineup though if he pulls off the victory. He scored 67 in their first fight and if he got a win bonus that would be 97 DK points. Now, at $7.1k, if he gets that then it’s no Max no cash. So, I do think Max is a great play as well and I expect him to be the 2nd highest owned underdog on the slate.

Winner –  Alexander Volkanovski via Unanimous Decision

 

Kamaru Usman $8,900 vs Jorge Masvidal $7,300

Kamaru Usman

Age: 33

Height: 6’0

Weight: 170

Reach:

Gym: Team Elevation

From: Nebraska

UFC Record: 11-0

Fight Matrix: 1

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W14

Betting Odds: -250

 

Kamaru Usman is 11-0 in the UFC and steadily improves. He showed off his striking improvement, striking all five rounds in his last match & got a late finish. He is still a bit stiff overall as a striker, but very good with the basics. Usman does a good job of landing a long jab and is good from both stances. He tends to spend more time in southpaw, and he has a good jab, straight-left hand. He likes to throw a straight-left, right hook combination. He is very good at feinting single legs and coming back up with uppercuts and overhands. He is very powerful and can knock fighters out with one shot such as Sergio Moraes. He likes to use a right uppercut, left high kick combination, and he does a good job of keeping constant pressure and pushing his opponents backwards. He had good leg and body kicks. He can sometimes walk forward and look for the knockout making himself hittable, and he needs to not do that against Masvidal. When he is loose and flowing, he is much more dangerous with his striking game. Usman excels when he can fight with opponent’s backs against the fence. We saw that in his domination of Tyron Woodley for the belt. He has a good chin, and when he gets hit will taunt his opponents. Usman does have big power but not a lot of standing knockouts.

Kamaru Usman is a college wrestling division 2 national champion. He is very fast, and athletic closing the distance with double legs. He is very strong and when he gets ahold of fighters, he usually gets them down. Usman likes to shoot single legs from southpaw, and that’s why his feints are so effective. He does a great job of getting a high crotch and taking opponents down, and then he also can change it into a double leg. He is excellent at using his striking to continuously push opponents back and against the cage is hard to read. He is great at mixing up his striking & grappling and can control opponents against the cage for long periods of time. Usman has great mat returns and will bring his opponents back down with nasty slams. He has nice trip takedowns as well and just is a very dynamic, diverse wrestler overall. He does a good job landing hard ground & pound from mount and staying heavy and controlling position. He overwhelmed Tyron Woodley a D-1 All American with his pressure style. He will work to get into half guard where he is heavy and will attack with kimuras and try to move to mount. He has a strong mount and hard G&P. He has good arm triangles and that’s his only submission victory.

 

Jorge Masvidal

Age: 35

Height: 5’11

Weight: 170

Reach:

Gym: American Top Team

From: Florida

UFC Record: 12-6

Fight Matrix: 3

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: +210

 

Jorge Masvidal is an extremely talented well-rounded fighter. He can fight as a pressure fighter, as well as fight moving backwards. His distance control is elite & makes him a very hard fighter to beat. He has an amazing jab and a very good lead left hook. He will keep distance with the jab, then counter with left hooks. He has nice round & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw a one-two down the middle and has nice right hooks & uppercuts. His right hook is extremely powerful & he can put the lights out with it. He will attack the body with nasty punches. He will throw hard straight-rights & left hooks to the body. He has nice round & switch kicks to the liver. He will fake the left switch kick & throw knees up the middle to the body & head. He will throw nice head kicks & will stop opponents head movement by trying to time the kick off his opponents slips. He will catch kicks & return with punches. He will throw nice wheel kicks to the head & lead leg hook kicks. Obviously in his match with Askren, he showed a disgusting flying knee he possesses. He landed a nasty high kick on Nate Diaz in round one that rocked Diaz. Masvidal is very smart & cerebral in the cage. Masvidal had a tendency in the past to coast. He can allow opponents to back him up & just look for counters against the cage while being out volumed. Masvidal is an OG. He has been fighting since the Kimbo backyard street fighting days. He has 16 KO/TKO’s and has been KO/TKO’d just one time which was questionable.

Masvidal is a very underrated grappler. He is very good in the clinch and has nasty knees to the body. He is very good at landing shots off the break. He will throw hard elbows, break and then let go with a combination. He has a great inside trip & is a very good clinch wrestler. He is a very strong wrestler, both offensively & defensively. He has a very nice single leg takedown. He will transition from the single to the double leg or knee pick and get it to the ground. He has solid top control, but he really uses his takedowns to break his opponent’s rhythm more than anything. He has solid but not elite takedown defense. He has struggled with single legs & chain wrestling. He also is at a strength disadvantage in this match. He will attack with very nice front chokes to counter takedown attempts & get submissions or create scrambles. He has very good darces. We haven’t seen Jorge off his back since his fight with Demian Maia. He wasn’t able to create scrambles to stand up in that fight but did win round three after Maia got tired taking him down. He needs to stand up immediately if he’s taken down here & try to tire out Kamaru. Masvidal has two submissions & has been submitted twice. He has great cardio & can go all five rounds easy.

 

Jorge the BMF Masvidal is taking this fight on a weeks’ notice to get a title shot. I do think on a full camp I would give Masvidal a better shot than I would give Burns, but I think on this short of notice and not knowing what kind of shape he is in, he probably needs a knockout. I think he is the better striker and can keep this fight close on the feet, but I see Usman being able to pull away late if that’s the case and still getting his hand raised. However, in this fight, Usman has a huge wrestling advantage that I think he will use where he probably wouldn’t have needed to against Burns. I think Usman should look to wrestle while Jorge is fresh here and then maybe stand with him after his speed and power fades away. Masvidal is live for the knockout upset here but I don’t see him winning more than 2 rounds on the scorecards.

This is my 1st or 2nd favorite fight to target on DraftKings and it will be pretty much an all-in fight for me. Usman is my preferred play and he will be a core play for me this week. I think this is a bad matchup for Masvidal and I could see Usman getting 10+ takedowns here and score the most on the slate in a decision win. He could also finish with the power he has or a submission, but I do think this one goes all 5 and I think he still has a high ceiling no matter what. Masvidal is live for the KO upset here and if you think that happens you need to be high on him at his salary. A KO from any of these title fight underdogs will put them on the optimal most likely so you need to take shots on the guys you like. Masvidal is very popular right now though and I think he will be over owned this weekend, so I will personally go underweight to him and overweight to Usman. I do expect this to be in most lineups though, so we aren’t sneaky either way and I might leave this out of 5-10% of my Milly Maker lineups just to be different. I also don’t think I would stack this in cash, it would likely be Usman solo for me because I like the co-main event stack more and I don’t see me dub stacking.

Winner –  Kamaru Usman via Unanimous Decision

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!

 

 

*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru

**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.

*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/

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