Hello everyone and welcome to the Sway Bar! This season I will be taking over the Sway Bar article and putting a couple of spins on it. I will be focusing largely on the RS and how to manipulate it to find our top plays. This week we go to Talladega for the Geico 500. I hope you enjoy it! You can find me in Slack any day of the week, or on Twitter @AUFan30 if you have any questions!
Oct 14, 2019; Talladega, AL, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Ryan Blaney (12) celebrates after winning the continuation of the 1000Bulbs.com 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
I will be doing my article this week much like Brady had his last week, as this race is likely to include a ton of carnage that even the RS can’t predict!!
DraftKings Top Plays
Ty Dillon ($7,100 Q33): It’s not too often that I’ll write Ty Dillon up as the top play of the slate, but starting 33rd at a track he’s had a ton of success gives us a ton of upside. Versus similar drivers, he gains an average of 7.3 driver rating at Talladega and his last 6 races here have gone like this: 10, 17, 15, 15, 11, 13. Anything can happen, but Ty will be the chalk and deservedly so.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($8,400 Q20): Yes, I’m writing Stenhouse up higher than Bell. I absolutely hate that Bell costs $9,700. I find that very ridiculous. Ricky is extremely good at superspeedways, and if he can avoid the Big One, I definitely think he’ll finish Top 10 and fight for a Top 5 here. He’s looked great all year and keeps getting into bad luck situations. Let’s just hope he can avoid it here.
Christopher Bell ($9,700 Q35): I find this price tag extremely ridiculous and he will be mega owned for the starting spot. The GPP move here is actually to go way underweight on him, given that anyone can wreck here. It’s a carnage race. However, he makes for an amazing cash game play and has a very solid floor.
Daniel Suarez ($7,300 Q37): Wait, did I just write Suarez up as a top play? Yes. Yes, I did. Suarez has actually been fairly solid in this car this season, and this is the best opportunity to jump on this starting spot we’ve had all years. He actually has fared fairly well at Talladega in his career and should be able to pick up some fast laps starting here in the back.
Top DK GPP Pivots
Matt DiBenedetto ($7,800 Q23): Too cheap for this car. This is a Penske affiliate car and we all know Penske dominates superspeedways. Should come in lower owned than deserves largely due to Suarez and the guys starting in the back soaking up the ownership. Ignore the track history as he’s never had amazing equipment, but he looked very sharp in his previous Talladega race before getting caught up in the big one. Look for him to reverse his fortune this weekend!
Denny Hamlin ($9,200 Q2): Won two straight Daytona 500’s and is easily the best Toyota superspeedway driver. We really hype up the big wreck because it happens almost every race, but if it doesn’t Denny is in a prime spot to get some lead laps and finish highly. He also has the third-highest superspeedway long term driver rating at 92.3. Plus, this price tag is ridiculous. Again, we’ll need to get very lucky and avoid carnage here, but here’s my GPP stand for this race. I’ll be over the field here on Denny.
FanDuel Top Plays
Ty Dillon ($6,800 Q33): All things considered, I have a very hard time not seeing how Ty Dillon is the best driver on this slate. All signs point to him being easily optimal so long as he avoids trouble. Just load up here folks.
Ryan Preece ($7,200 Q31): Someone new to throw in here is Ryan Preece. Preece has looked very sharp to start the year, and starting 31st at a track we love to load up on the guys in the back it makes it that much better. He’s raced here in the Cup twice, finishing 18th and 3rd. He hits either of those marks and he has a good shot at optimal. His average position at superspeedways is 23.5, and starting 31st, that’s what we’re looking for. I’ll have a ton of Preece over on FanDuel, and he’s not a horrible DraftKings option either.
Christopher Bell ($8,900 Q35): Again, I don’t absolutely love the price compared to others, but the floor is so high with amazing upside that you can’t ignore it. Was very solid on superspeedways in Xfinity and should be able to avoid carnage if it comes early starting from the back. I don’t love the fact that he drives a Toyota, as they are severely outnumbered at superspeedways, but Starting 35th, all we really need is a Top 15 here.
Joey Logano ($13,000 Q9): The dominator of superspeedways, Logano should (carnage permitting) be among the highest scorers of the slate and is the most likely dominator. With a ridiculous average finish of 5.3 at Talladega recently, Logano knows how to avoid the big one and put himself in prime spots to win the race. Also, versus similar drivers, Logano gains 17.3 fantasy points on average at Talladega. Logano is easily the top dog to lead laps here and I expect him to get up there and lead for a while before this one is over.
Top FanDuel GPP Pivots
Brad Keselowski ($12,400 Q6): Is everyone going to forget about the other dominant Penske car? With better odds than Logano or Blaney, an average position of 11.5 recently at Talladega, very comparable averages to Blaney and Logano, and spending 74% of the time in the Top 15 at superspeedways, Keselowski is someone we should definitely considering going overweight here. I think he has legit dominator upside here, and potentially solo dominator if we can hopefully avoid carnage. When Kes takes the lead at superspeedways, he doesn’t give it up easily. Love pairing him with Blaney or Logano and going with some of our Top Plays we already mentioned above.
Austin Dillon ($8,500 Q17): Austin is very solid at superspeedways and always seems to get to the front here at some point. Never leads many (if any) laps, but starting 17th, if he can get us a Top 10, he’ll score very nicely at this price tag. Gains on average 10.3 fantasy points compared to similar drivers at superspeedways, and if he can avoid the Big One, he should be giving us a Top 10 here.
That’ll do it for this week’s The Sway Bar! If you enjoyed, please give me a follow on Twitter @AUFan30, or let me know in Slack! If you know of anyone interested in joining the DFS Army, be sure to tell them to use my link https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/99/ and use code “AU30” at checkout for 20% their monthly VIP/BTB membership! Can’t wait to see those helmets crushing tournaments this week!