Whats up y’all – Brady Miller here. Some of you may recognize me as the author of the Sway Bar from 2017-2019. Auburn called me to sub in for him this week but don’t worry – he will be back next week! This weekend we are reverting back to the Brady Miller format and I can’t wait.
This is going to be a SUPER hard race to cap for a couple reasons. The most obvious reason is the lack of qualifying and practice, but we have learned to deal with that recently. We will also have to deal with the fact that we haven’t seen a “natural” Homestead race in years. For the last 18 years Homestead has represented the last race of the season. This means, especially in the “one race take all” era, drivers not involved in the championship chase tend to drive very conservatively and give way to contenders. We don’t always get to see who is the best driver and best car.
So how do we tackle this? I am going to focus on a few things – performance at similar tracks, recent form, 2020 speed, and most importantly – race shaping. So let’s get started to this week’s THROWBACK addition of The Sway Bar!
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Nov 16, 2019; Homestead, FL, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) races through turn four during practice for the Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Top Plays
Kevin Harvick – I wish I could give you a more exciting play here – but all roads seem to lead to Harvick here. Even before this iteration of the Chase, Harvick was dominating at Homestead. In 2020, he has the best 1.5 mile, correlated track and steep track driver rating in the field. He has the third best Homestead rating overall (which is a less valuable stat to me). I see Harvick grinding his way to the front during the first long green-flag run, and keeping that track position for the entirety of the race. I expect a ton of laps lead before competing for a win.
Ryan Blaney – This should be a little bit of a more exciting pick. Blaney has never run super well at Homestead, but he has never been eligible for the championship at Homestead either. He ran well here in the other series, and has been a top car on 1.5 mile tracks in 2020. I think it might be a long shot to consider Blaney a dominator here, but his low price and 11th place starting spot makes him worth a look and a possible pivot.
Martin Truex Jr – Back to less exciting picks. And to be honest – I don’t even love this pick. The Toyotas have struggled to show any juice on 1.5 mile tracks this year. That said, MTJ has been the best of them, and ranks 3rd in driver rating on 1.5 milers in 2020. Most of the speed seems to come late race, and I have a hard time shaping this race without MTJ competing for the win at the end. Look for MTJ, whose Homestead stats are immaculate, to be a contender in stage 3.
Joey Logano – I struggled a lot between putting Joey, Chase and Bowman here. Ultimately I settled on Joey for three reasons:
1) He could easily lead laps off the start if he gets around Hamlin quickly. The Toyotas haven’t shown the ability to lead a race early, so this is a real possibility.
2) I think Chase and Bowman will be higher owned than Joey, it will be easier to use Joey as a pivot.
3) Joey has the most experience at Homestead, and could pace this race before competing for a win.
All three are worthwhile looks, but I will be giving the most exposure to Joey.
Fades
Given all the unknowns I can’t advocate any full fades. The Toyotas at 1.5 miles give me pause. That said, they won’t struggle all season. They will figure something out sooner than later and we don’t want to miss the value when that time comes.
Value Plays
Cole Custer – It’s been tough to watch Custer struggle this season. It’s hard to believe he runs the same equipment that Harvick does. That said – this is a really good spot for him. Homestead was a great track for him in the lower series, and at $6000 – a lot needs to go wrong for him to not hit value. He starts 35th, and should compete for a top 20.
Erik Jones – It’s been a tough year for Erik Jones, and he has run so much better than his finishes show. This week he rolls 15th at $6500. For me, that price is way too low. He finished 3rd here in November, and granted his equipment was much better last year – he should compete for a top ten.
Austin Dillon – I think this is a sneaky little value play. Homestead has been a great track for Dillon, and RCRs 1.5 mile program has been much improved in 2020 (thanks to the new Chevrolet body). Dillon starts 16th, which is a little high, but he should easily work into the top ten and could even work into the top five if things go well. This is one of my favorite plays on the slate, especially if he goes as low owned as I think he will.
Other Notables
Tyler Reddick – Reddick should run well here. The secret is out on him though, and his ownership will likely be a little higher than it ought to be.
Ryan Preece – Preece is a grinder, and should keep his car clean and compete for a top 20 against a 33rd place starting spot.
Michael McDowell – McDowell has an average finish of 24th on 1.5 mile tracks in 2020, and an average finish of 23.7 at Homestead. He easily hits 5x if he can hit around that this Sunday.
So there you have it. Make sure you check out the Cheat Sheet as well! Good luck and stay cashing.