Hello again Army, and welcome to this weekend’s Calming the Chaos! We head down to Atlanta this week, which is a little strange considering it’s not the early season, but here we are. Things look pretty good for this one, with several different ways to go, so let’s get to it!
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Atlanta Motor Speedway
We’re back to 1.5-mile tracks this week, but it’s a little different than what we had at Charlotte. This track is rougher on tires, which means that unlike Charlotte where they hardly seemed to matter at all, they’ll matter a lot here. Long-run speed, and being able to take care of your tires, will go a long ways.
It’s all about that mid-ranged shuffle
The field was set in such a way that the majority of the non-dominator upside was given to the mid-range drivers, mostly in the $6,100 to $8,300 range on DraftKings (it’s a little different on FanDuel, but still pretty similar over there). While we do see this from time to time, I can’t remember a race where it was this lopsided, so that’s clue #1 as to where we should be looking.
Aside from them, we can look at one to two dominators in all formats (on both sites) to supply some additional upside to our lineups. Given the nature of this track, a solo performance is a bit more likely, so feel free to run a few more single dominator lineups than usual.
Honestly, there’s a pretty good chance the winning lineup will only feature drivers in these two groups, so be sure to hammer them hard!
Feb 24, 2019; Hampton, GA, USA; Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) during the Folds of Honor QuickTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports
The Field
Dominators
No surprise here, but Harvick is the main target for Atlanta. He’s led a chunk of laps at nearly every race here in the last 10 years, so you don’t need me to tell you to play him. Instead, I’ll offer some advice of who you could play him with.
The first choice is Elliott since he has the pole, but I don’t mind pairing him with Keselowski or Kurt Busch since they’re both capable of leading a small/medium chunk of laps at some point, and they won’t break the bank either. I’d avoid pairing him with the more expensive options, though (Kyle Busch, Truex, Logano, etc). Keep in mind that Keselowski/Kurt can be paired with anybody else, and they make solid targets for your non-Harvick lineups.
Honestly, that’s really about it for the dominators. Harvick is just so far ahead of the others here that it’s very easy to point to him. If you’re looking to be different in GPP, consider pairing him with some of the drivers mentioned earlier, or go heavier on some of the more expensive pivots.
You could always try your hand at some other guys like Hamlin, Bowman, Blaney, etc, but I just don’t see them having much of a chance to dominate here, and they won’t pay off if they don’t.
Studs / value studs
This is the key area this week, and there are so many great options to choose from. I would be sure to include the majority of these drivers in your GPP pool, and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to mark them as dominators in the Domination Station and have it shuffle them around for you.
Main targets – Jones/Byron, Reddick/DiBenedetto, Custer, Bell, and Preece
Secondary targets – Stenhouse, Newman, Kenseth, and Wallace
Cheaper targets – McDowell, Ty Dillon, Austin Dillon/Buescher, and Suarez
They’re fairly interchangeable in each group (I listed them roughly in the order I like them, but I like them all), and I recommend having them all in your GPP pool, as they will offer most of the non-dominator ceiling here, especially on FanDuel.
Value / punts
I listed them earlier, but I do like McDowell the best of the bunch, especially with how cheap he is (I see no reason to go to the punts below him). He’s a solid all-purpose target, just like Ty Dillon is.
Austin Dillon and Buescher don’t look very appealing starting where they are, but they do both have top-10 upside, so if nothing else, consider them on FanDuel. I like them on both sites, but could see them paying off better over there than on DraftKings. Keep them in GPP only!
Finally, Suarez technically has a high ceiling starting so deep, but I don’t like how expensive he is. It’s true he finished pretty well last week, but remember that Bristol favors driver talent more than the car itself, and that won’t be quite the case here at Atlanta. His slower car will have a harder time keeping up, especially if they have any issues managing tires (or if they go cheap on them). I could easily see him being a bust, and he might have more ownership than he deserves thanks to his name. In other words, he makes a solid fade target, especially if he might carry more ownership than expected.
Closing thoughts
This is a classic example of a race where being creative with your driver pool (and the Domination Station) could help put you ahead of the pack. For example, try taking manual control over your actual dominators and use the dominator stacking feature on the cheaper drivers. This could almost be looked at as sort of a hybrid plate/1.5-mile race, where you’re focusing a lot on cheaper drivers, but also forcing in some more expensive ones for your lead laps. There’s bound to be a fair amount of chalk, but being more creative than the next person might just give you the upper hand. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!