Welcome to the NASCAR Cup Series DFS Preview. For this edition, we will take a look at the upcoming NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. This article is brought to you by DFSArmy.com and written by Ryan Larkin. We have FOUR NASCAR races in TWO days this week. Now is the very best time to sign up and become a DFS Army VIP Member. Become a VIP member!! Sign up and use code LARKIN to save 20%!! You can catch up with Ryan on twitter or in the DFSA VIP slack @Larkin8

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Homestead brings us another 1.5 mile track with tons of tire wear. We have multiple grooves here with he progressive banking meaning cars will be running from the very bottom all the way to the very top of the track. Tire wear is massive at Homestead with lap time fall off of 3-4 seconds per lap. Long run speed has been king here over the years as we see few cautions overall. Weather is sure to be an issue with scattered thunderstorms in the forecast for every single day in Miami this time of year. Because we still do not have qualifying or practice we will be leaning heavily on last falls race here as well as the performances of teams at Darlington and Atlanta earlier this year. The DFS Army Research Station will have all the information need for this race.

Quick Facts

Date: June 14th

Race: Sunday 3:30 pm ET.

TV: FS1

Laps: 267  Stages: 80/160/267

Drivers: 40

Defending Champion: Kyle Busch

AVG. # of Cautions: 4 excluding stage breaks

AVG DNF’s: 4 per race

 

Pit selection:

• Order based on finishing position from the June 10 race at Martinsville, followed by new entries in order of points.

Starting lineup:

• Starting Positions 1-12: Random draw from charter teams in those positions in owner points
• Positions 13-24: Random draw from charter teams in those positions in owner points
• Positions 25-36: Random draw from charter teams in those positions in owner points
• Lastly, Positions 37-40: Open teams in order of owners points

Competition Caution:

We should expect an early competition caution around lap 25-30. Tire wear is high so NASCAR will want to give teams a chance to look at everything fairly early into the first run.

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DraftKings

For this race, I will be looking to utilize a 2 dominator strategy with a domination station setting of “at least 2”. We saw last fall that the Joe Gibbs cars were phenomenal on the long run while Harvick played the short run speed strategy. Long run speed won out with Kyle Busch going on to win the championship. I think Harvick will be able to carry some of his speed over from Atlanta but I believe the Gibbs cars will be too good on the long run again. It is important to remember that Hamlin, Truex and Kyle Busch all finished inside the top 5 at Atlanta. Hamlin will start on the pole and has the early advantage to be a dominator. There are some killer mid tier plays starting deep in the field. Lots of options to pair with the top tier drivers. I feel like there can be a lot of differentiating lineups for this slate with is great coming off some ultra chalky ones recently.

Favorite Stud Play: Martin Truex Jr $11,400

And for the third straight week, I am rolling with MTJ as my favorite Stud play. Dude is on fire lately and is my pick to win this race. He was the fastest car at Atlanta for most of the race scoring 54 fast laps while Harvick scored 39 and Kyle Busch scored 24.  He also has the added benefit of the 1st pit stall. Truex is still the long run king and Homestead favors his style.

Favorite Value Play: Aric Almirola $6,300

Everyone is going to be on the Cole Custer, Tyler Reddick plays for this race. I believe AA is going to slide under the radar. Almirola has been struggling as of late and no matter what he does it seems like things are working against him. That is exactly why I am excited about him for this race. I expect his ownership to be lower than it should be and I am excited to see where he actually ends up. He finished 7th and 4th here when driving for Richard Petty Motorsports and Finished 9th here in 2018. There is top 10 upside here but more importantly, whenever he simply has a solid race he ends up inside the top 15. Killer price.

FanDuel

Looking for an “at least 2” dominator setting here but that is simply so we get a couple of the top tier race dominators in our lineups. There are tons of drivers with good place differential that can finish inside the top 10. I feel like this is a wide open slate on FD and it can be won even with just one main dominator. Important to remember that 100 laps led only equals 10 extra points for that driver and if they don’t finish up front then they run the risk of losing some of those points to negative place diff. Hamlin would be a great example of someone who could be hurt by this. For this reason, I am looking at the guys who can score 5+ points in place diff points and are safer overall plays.

Favorite Overall Play: Ryan Blaney

Love the price and starting position here. Blaney has been the best driver in the sport not to win a race yet.  3rd at both Charlotte races and 4th at Atlanta are the main races I am looking at for comparison. He was also 2nd at Martinsville, 2nd at Cali until a tire issue late, and was running 2nd at Bristol before wrecking. He has been fast everywhere. Starting 11th with top 5 upside is a great spot. His price also makes him compatible with two other elite tier driver while using the high place diff value plays in the lineup.

 

DFS Army VIP Content

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NillyJay’s – Calming the Chaos: Exceptional slate breakdown

AuburnFan30’s – The Sway Bar: Slate coaching and top plays.

Cheat Sheet notes from Larkin8, Nilly Jay and Taco for each Cup slate

Cheat Sheet notes from Larkin8 and Taco for each Xfinity and Truck slate

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NASCAR on SuperDraft

Another successful day on SuperDraft for the Martinsville event. Army members swept the top 5 spots in the Bump n’ Run contest and we had somewhere around 20 lineups finish inside the top 39 spots of the Checkered Flag. Really excited about Homestead for us to continue are domination. For this race I am only looking at one main dominator for Champion Spot and then really attacking those high multiplier drivers starting in the back. Really going to attack the place differential upside. Should be another good one for us. Join the Army so you can check out my winning notes and our killer projections.

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DFS Army Strategy Series – NASCAR on SuperDraft

Are you ready to join the domination?  If you would like to reach out and talk NASCAR, follow me on twitter @Larkin8 or of course Become a VIP member and join me as well as our other DFS Army NASCAR contributors (Brady Miller, Taco, and NillyJay) in the NASCAR coaching channels.