BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 4 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 10-fight card in Vegas that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a bunch of money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $150k goes to 1st place with $600k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Kay Hansen $8,500 vs Jinh Yu Frey $7,700
Kay Hansen
Age: 20
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym:10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu Buena Park
From: California
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 32
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -165
Kay Hansen will be making her UFC debut as well. She is a young 20-year-old upstart, & clearly improving. Hansen has won two consecutive fights, and her last two losses have been split decisions. Hansen has tested herself against good competition & is a solid fighter. Hansen is not a great striker, but she did take a boxing fight recently. Her hands are okay. She will throw some straights & hooks. She isn’t much of a kicker. Hansen really is looking to use her forward pressure, footwork and strikes as a distraction in order to get the takedown. She isn’t looking to finish the fight on the mat. Hansen has never been finished by strikes either & is a very tough girl.
Kay Hansen is a strong grappler who relies on her wrestling. Hansen has excellent double legs, and back takes. She is good at taking opponents down off kicks. In the clinch, Hansen is strong has good underhooks & head positioning. Hansen has decent trips in the clinch against the cage. On top, Hansen is very heavy. She has good ground & pound and is always looking for subs. Hansen has great mounts and back takes. When she gets to the back, she flattens opponents out & is effective. Hansen will sit in half guard, land ground & pound and look for guillotines. Hansen will finish the guillotine from mount. She has solid arm triangles. Hansen will attack front chokes from side control, and attack armbars from mount. I have seen Hansen taken down, but she is good off her back & hard to control. She has solid leg locks. Hansen has finished five or six wins on the mat. She is young, aggressive & improving. She pushes a high pace & in the small cage her wrestling should be effective. Hansen is only 1-2 in decisions, but the two losses where split decisions.
Jinh Yu Frey
Age: 35
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 65”
Gym: Genesis BJJ
From: Texas
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 3(ATW)
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +145
Jinh Yu Frey is finally getting the chance to showcase her abilities in the UFC. She has had a long career & fought some solid girls. Frey is the current Invicta Atomweight champion, but this will be the first time she’s moving up to 115. Frey is a plus athlete, with well-rounded skills. Frey has solid striking. She is southpaw. She has a solid jab, heavy inside, outside low kicks. She has a good straight-left, right hook combination. She has a good overhand left. She will throw combinations to the to the body and head. Frey has power in her hands, dropping her last opponent Ashley Cummings. Frey will throw some body & head kicks. Frey can be low volume & robotic. She will throw very predictable hooks at times that get her countered. Frey can also get her legs ate up as well. Frey is a tough girl. She has been stopped by strikes once before. She was knocked out pretty badly by Seo Hee Ham. Frey only has one career KO.
Jinh Yu Frey is a good grappler. In the clinch, Frey is very aggressive. Frey will throw hard punches in combination in the clinch, has nice knees & elbows. Frey is good at pulling fighters into double legs. She is pretty physical in the clinch & will look for trips. On top, Frey is more about control then submissions. She does have a couple rear naked choke wins. Frey has good riding ability & can grind out wins. Frey hasn’t been super active with her wrestling in recent fights. She is a decision fighter usually though & hasn’t finished a fight since 2014. Frey has five round cardio & the veteran experience here.
Hanson is 15 years younger than Frey and she is the one that should be improving in between each fight, where with Frey, we more so know what we are going to get at 35 years old and she is more likely to decline at this point in her career. Frey is the more experienced fighter and she is the better striker of the two, but she is a 105 pounder though and this will be her first fight at 115 lbs, Hanson is the better wrestler/grappler of the two though and I think she will be the bigger, stronger fighter here so that should help her with takedowns. I think she will be able to wrestle enough to win 2 of the 3 rounds here and get her hand raised but she is going to need those takedowns because I think she is outgunned on the feet.
Hanson is my preferred play here. She is the one that will be looking to grapple, and she could rack up multiple takedowns and advances each round. Even in a decision I think she can score well and she is the one with the ceiling in this spot. Frey will be looking to strike, and I don’t see her getting a knockout with her size, and I could also see her spending a lot of time on her back or defending takedowns where she won’t be scoring points. I will only have 1-2 lineups max with Frey if I am making 20 this weekend, but Hanson is a fighter I will be looking to be overweight on at her price.
Winner – Kay Hanson via Unanimous Decision
Jordan Griffin $8,200 vs Youssef Zalal $8,000
Jordan Griffin
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 107
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +105
Jordan Griffin has gotten quickly rebooked after his opponent Darrick Minner failed to make weight. Jordan Griffin finally picked up his first UFC win in his last outing. He suffered two decision losses in his first two fights but got a nice guillotine in February. Griffin was on his way to losing this fight as well but found the finish & closed the show. This is a rematch of a fight that happened a couple years ago which went down a very similar way. Darrick Minner was dominating the fight prior to getting submitted. Griffin is a southpaw & a good distance striker. Griffin is a fighter who likes to use a lot of lateral movement on the outside & then explode in with combinations. He has a decent jab & a good straight-left hand. He will throw one-twos. He also has a nice jab, overhand left. He is very aggressive & quick at closing the distance. When he can back opponents up against the cage, he will throw wide hooks in combination to close off his opponent’s exits. In round 3 if he feels the fight is close or opponents are fading, he will put the pressure on & trade. He has nice short hooks & uppercuts that are powerful. He has dangerous kicks. He will throw a one-two to a rear leg body or head kick. If fighters can time his blitzes, they can duck under & get easy takedowns. Griffin has good power & 5 career KO/TKO’s. He has a good chin & is a wild man. He has been KO/TKO’d one time.
Jordan Griffin is an opportunistic grappler, but not a great wrestler. In their first fight & many subsequent fights, Griffin has given up takedowns easily. In his last match, he was in route to losing prior to catching a nasty submission from bottom & finishing the fight. Griffin is going to be taken down by Zalal, especially early. Minner was able to dominate Griffin early with his wrestling & grappling. Griffin is tough & hard to finish though. He survives the storm & is always looking for opportunities of his own to finish the match. In the fight with Darrick Minner it went the same way, he survived a storm & was able to catch an armbar in a scramble. Griffin does have nine submission victories.
Youssef Zalal
Age: 23
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 75”
Gym: factoryX Muay Thai
From: Morocco
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 294
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -125
Youssef Zalal came through as a big underdog in his UFC debut. He had an excellent performance vs Austin Lingo dominating him from pillar to post. Zalal is improving every fight and at just 23 years old he’s growing. Zalal is a slick fighter with plus skills on the feet & on the mat. Zalal is a tall, lanky striker with nice movement. He is constantly switching stances with good head movement. Zalal isn’t great with the hands. He will throw the jab out there or use a lead hook. He uses a one-two but his defense in boxing range is bad. Zalal does have nice low kicks. He has excellent round & front kicks to the to the body and head. He will throw nice question mark kicks and looks to be kicking & moving until he can time level changes. He does have nasty kicks with both legs & can put fighters down with kicks. He had a nasty flying knee in his last match that knocked his opponent out. Youssef is very fast & explosive. He will be the better athlete in this matchup. Zalal has two KO/TKO’s. I have seen Zalal get rocked with punches but never dropped & he recovers quickly. His striking is definitely improving.
Youssef Zalal likes to mix it up & I see him as the clearly superior wrestler in this fight. Zalal has nice level changes with single & double legs to complement his clinch takedowns. He will throw a jab or straight out, and then duck under into the single leg. I definitely see him getting a few takedowns in this matchup. In top position, Zalal has very good control & nice ground & pound. Zalal likes to get to side control, trap a near side wrist & throw punches. He will throw heavy elbows that cut opponents open, but his main objective is getting to the back mount. Zalal will lock up very nice rear naked chokes. Zalal also will attack guillotines, darces & brabo chokes when opponents work to stand up. He has nasty front choke submissions. Zalal has five submission victories & has never been finished. He has great cardio & doesn’t slowdown in fights.
I like Zalal here. I think he is the better wrester and grappler and he impressed me in his UFC debut. He looked good on the feet as well, but I think he should and will look to mix in takedowns here. Griffin is a dangerous submission artist as well and could get a sub of his own, but I think Zalal gets the better of most scrambles and grappling exchanges. I think this will be close on the feet though and the smaller cage could help Griffin because Zalal like to hit and move a lot, but I don’t think Griffin knocks him out and he isn’t a volume striker.
Zalal is the underdog on DraftKings but the new favorite on the betting line. He is my preferred play here and I don’t see me getting much exposure to Griffin. He might make a lineup as a 6th spot guy if I have enough salary remaining, but I won’t start any lineups there. Zalal I like in all formats though and I do expect him to be pretty popular. I won’t be making him a core play at all here, but I do think he makes at least 30% of my lineups and I would probably be clicking on him for a cash lineup as well. I think he has upside with takedowns here, and if he wins, I think he gets 10x or more so even at a high ownership I will still be on this play, but Griffin is a guy I would fade with 10 or less lineups.
Winner – Youssef Zalal via Unanimous Decision
Takashi Sato $8,400 vs Ramiz Brahimaj $7,800
Takashi Sato
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Tribe Tokyo MMA
From: Japan
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 89
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -125
Takashi Sato is set for his first start of 2020. He was scheduled to fight all the way back in February, but his opponent Maki Pitolo pulled out with weight cutting issues. With everything going on, June was the earliest he could get another scrap. Sato is 1-1 so far in his UFC career. He is coming off a loss to Belal Muhammad, but that isn’t something to hang your head too low about. Sato is still a good prospect in the division. Sato is a good striker. He has a wide stance & is very light on his feet. He controls distance extremely well. He has a nasty jab & a clean, powerful straight-left hand. His punches come fast & he moves extremely fluidly with little to no wasted movement. He does a great job of throwing a jab followed by a left elbow which is nasty. He will attack the body with nasty body shots, straight-left hands & left hooks. He is excellent of just sliding out of the way of strikes & countering with his straight-left or left hook. He has extremely fast hand speed & does a great job of peppering with shots & then mixing in more powerful ones. He does stand a bit upright & has his chin high, so he is there to be hit. His eyes & head movement save him in that regard because he’s able to see the shots coming, move, counter & discourage his opponents. He also is heavy on his lead leg & is there to be leg kicked. Sato has a good chin but can be hurt. He has gotten rocked on several occasions & knocked out before. He has good recoverability & has only been finished by strikes one time. Sato has knockout power with 10 KO/TKO’s.
Sato has good grappling. He has good body locks & judo throw takedowns. He has a strong top game, he likes to take the back & will get the mount & finish with strikes. He won his last two fights via ground & pound. Sato is a good defensive grappler. He has solid takedown defense & good get-ups. In the clinch he has strong hips & will even counter with judo throws & big elbows. He is good at springing right back to his feet & not letting opponents get his hips square on the mat. He is good at sprawling & circling to the back himself. Sato impressed me a lot with his grappling ability, even though he got submitted in his fight vs Glaico Franca. He was able to deny a majority of the takedown attempts, stand up very quickly when taken down, and even defended a rear naked choke & had some ground & pound from top control. He was able to takedown Muhammad with a nice body lock. He showed heavy hips and good clinch takedown defense. Belal Muhammad was able to take Sato down as well, and eventually took the back & got a rear naked choke finish. Sato does give up his back a lot & has to be careful with that in this fight. Sato isn’t a submission threat with just two in his career. He has been submitted twice.
Ramiz Brahimaj
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +105
Ramiz Brahimaj will finally make his UFC debut June 27th. Brahimaj hasn’t fought in over a year. He was scheduled to face Miguel Baeza on the contender series last March, but an injury forced him off the card & he hasn’t fought since. Brahimaj has been healthy for a while now, and actually won the 2019 IBJJ no Gi worlds in December. Brahimaj is a 27-year-old prospect with an 8-2 record fighting out of Fortis MMA. Brahimaj really has little to no striking. He will look to throw some straights or kicks and just close the distance. He can be very sloppy closing the gap & get hit hard. Inside in the clinch, he is very hittable as well. Ramiz is tough, but he’s been dropped & hurt in multiple fights. Brahimaj still has yet to get finished.
Ramiz Brahimaj is a sick grappler. He is looking to close the distance, get in the clinch & get the fight to the mat. He will look to jump on the back from standing, and has no issue pulling guard. Brahimaj has good cardio & will spam takedowns. Maybe he won’t be successful early, but he tends to take fighters down later on. When he can get on top, he is super dangerous & always is attacking the neck. He has a great arm triangle & rear naked choke. He is always hunting guillotines. Brahimaj is excellent off his back as well; Dangerous with submissions & has good sweeps. I have seen fights where fighters shut him down & beat him. He has finished all his matches by submission. In his two career decisions, he’s lost. He spends too much time on his back & just doesn’t have the striking to usually win decisions. Brahimaj is the most dangerous in the first. He has 7 of his 8 wins in the first round. He has never won a fight where it’s gone to round three. Oddly enough, Brahimaj has solid cardio & comes to fight.
Ramiz is an aggressive grappler and he can put guys to sleep fast on the ground. He has nice kicks on the feet as well, but his ground game is where he really shines so he doesn’t want this fight to stay standing. If Brahmaj can’t get takedowns here, then he probably gets knocked out or at least picked apart for a clear loss. I think Sato could be in big trouble if he is taken down even one time though, so I am going to take the newcomer to pick up a submission upset here but he needs to look to chain wrestle to keep this fight on the ground because this is a striker vs grappler matchup.
I love this fight for DraftKings and I think it is a top 3 fight on the slate. If Ramiz wins, I expect it to be an early submission. If he can make that happen I think he is almost a lock for the optimal lineup at his salary. I do like his aggressiveness too and I do trust that he will look for takedowns very early into this fight. If he can get them I think he can finish. If he can’t, I think he ends up getting knocked out. Either way, I don’t see this fight going to the score cards and I like the price tags on both guys for a potential finish victory. Ramiz is my preferred play of the two and I do want to be overweight to the field on him, but I wouldn’t touch this fight in cash games.
Winner – Ramiz Brahimaj via 1st round Submission
Philipe Lins $8,300 vs Tanner Boser $7,900
Philipe Lins
Age: 34
Height: 6’2
Weight: 236
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 42
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -105
Philipe Lins is a smart fighter. He is smaller for a HW, likes to use a lot of movement and counter punching. Lins has a strong jab he will throw to the body and head. He has heavy, low calf kicks. Lins has a really nice left hook, and a nasty overhand right. Lins doesn’t throw much in combination unless he stuns his opponent and stays very counter heavy. That cost him his fight with Arlovski. If his opponents don’t throw the fights can be very boring. Lins does have excellent counter hooks though, and fast hand speed inside. He has nice hook combinations in the pocket that puts fighters out. Lins definitely has power when he sits down on his shots. He drops guys like a sack of potatoes. He has 8 KO/TKO wins. Philipe Lins does have a questionable chin. In two of his three losses he has been knocked out. Lins holds his hands low and can back up in straight lines. He does have good head movement, but at HW it only takes one to put them out. When fighters pressure him they seem to have success landing if they don’t get hit with the counters coming in. Overall, Lins is a risk adverse striker that can knock you out with counters.
Philipe Lins is a well-rounded fighter. He doesn’t shoot takedowns very often but has shown solid wrestling offensively and defensively. Lins finished his last fight with heavy knees in the clinch. He has a nice double leg, and in top position transitions well to the back. In this fight, I don’t expect him to use much grappling, but it is in his back pocket. Lins’ takedown defense is not bad. He has good balance and heavy hips. Fighters who can chain wrestle like Jared Rosholt can give him problems though. He does have good front chokes to counter takedowns. He got a guillotine that way against Caio Alcentar in the PFL. When Lins gets taken down, he can struggle to get back to his feet, but has an active guard. He will go high guard and attack submissions and throws some solid elbows. He was controlled on his back in round one against Jared Rosholt. Lins has never been submitted though, I and don’t see him getting taken down by Boser. Lins has four submissions himself.
Tanner Boser
Age: 28
Height: 6’2
Weight: 246
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Hayabusa Training Centre
From: Canada
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 76
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -115
Tanner Boser is a low volume striker. He likes to work behind kicks & counter with punches. He will throw some occasional jabs to the head & body. He throws elbows as opponents try to close the distance. Boser has nasty leg kicks to the inside & outside. This is probably the best part of his game. He will throw heavy round & front kicks to the body & head. He has nice one-twos as opponents try to close the distance. He will throw counter hooks moving backwards, along with overhand rights. Boser is pretty flat footed & can come up short with a lot of his shots. He doesn’t tend to go first much & likes to be on the outside. That could be a problem for him in this fight. Boser does pick it up as the fight goes on usually. He will cut the cage off by switching stances and throw more volume. He is hittable, but he has a great chin. I have seen him take some bombs & show nothing. He has 7 KO/TKO’s but is definitely more of a volume fighter. He finished his last match with leg kicks. He has lost some decisions that I think were a bit raw deals & he could easily have a better record. He has been knocked out one time in his career.
Boser is not an offensive grappler. I haven’t seen him shoot many if any takedowns at all or look for the clinch. He shows good balance & takedown defense against the cage. He will dig solid, double underhooks to circle off the cage & attack with knees. Denis Smoldarov who’s a strong wrestler was able to time some double leg takedowns, but Boser also showed a strong sprawl. Boser isn’t bad off his back. He has decent get-ups & will attack with kimuras. Boser has good cardio & will go to work off the breaks. His takedown defense to me is pretty good. He isn’t someone who will work on top much. He has two rear naked choke submissions early in his career. He has never been submitted.
This is likely going to be a slow-paced striking fight. They are Heavyweight’s, so they could land the big bomb and I would say Lins is more likely to do that, but I think we see a boring decision and it’s hard to be confident in either of these guys. There is no chance I would lay juice on either of these fighters so it’s dog or pass no matter who that is, but I am going to lean with Boser because he has more experience and I think he will be the one with more output which could be all it takes to win this fight.
Either guy is in play here if you have a strong lean, but I think this is a full fade fight for me. If this goes to a decision I don’t see either guy having a shot at 100 DK points and they could struggle to even get 10x. They are HWs though, so it could end with one big punch, so it is a risky fade, I just don’t want to invest in either guy personally. I think Lens is the one with the higher ceiling though, so I would say he is my preferred play of the two, but with 20 lineups or less this is likely a full fade for me in all formats.
Winner – Tanner Boser via Split Decision
Luis Pena $8,900 vs Khama Worthy $7,300
Luis Pena
Age: 26
Height: 6’3
Weight: 155
Reach: 78”
Gym: American Top Team
From: California
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 119
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -240
Luis Pena notched another UFC victory his last time out defeating Steve Garcia via decision. Pena overall has been pretty successful at 4-2 in the UFC. He has switched camps once again & is now at American Top Team. He stated it was due to financial reasons. Pena should be steadily improving every time out & has another chance to prove his skills vs Khama Worthy. Pena is a very tall, long, creative striker. He has good fakes, feints and picks his shots well. In this fight, it’s imperative. When Pena can work behind his jab, and left hook, he’s at his best. He has a very nice one-two, and a good lean back check hook. He will throw a nice hook, uppercut and straight combinations & throws a lot of volume. Pena has nice round kicks to the body, and vicious knees. His flying knees are extremely dangerous. He will turn the flying knee into a front kick to the face if he feels his opponent out of range for the knee. Pena does lean back to avoid punches & can get hit by doing that at times. He is also heavy on his lead leg. Pena has 2 KO/TKO’s.
Luis Pena has shown issues with takedown defense over the years but is really improving his BJJ. His grappling actually looked pretty good to me in his last match. Pena is huge for the weight class & in the clinches he tends to do well. He gets the Muay Thai plum and will control and land knees. He is good at circling to the back when he’s in the clinch & getting slam or trip takedowns. Pena struggles a little bit to defend takedowns when opponents back him towards the cage with punches. He can get fixated on defense & allow easy entries into the legs. Pena in his last two matches has been able to use submissions to create scrambles & attack. He utilized a weird arm triangle, reverse crucifix type position in his last match to sweep & almost submit Matt Frevola. Pena is also good at countering takedown attempts with kimuras and using them to sweep which he’s done in his last few matches. Sometimes I feel Pena will go for the submission when he can easily deny the takedown attempt. I think that has to do with being inexperienced. In the future, he should just work to keep it standing. Pena will attack off his back though with triangles, guillotines, and is very hard to hold down. He is excellent at sweeping to top position as well. In Pena’s last match, he did an excellent job of taking the back in the clinch & controlling position. Against a dangerous counter striker like Worthy, I think it will be a smart game plan to do that again. Pena has 4 submissions & good cardio.
Khama Worthy
Age: 33
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Pittsburgh Academy
From: Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 70
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +200
Khama Worthy entered the UFC with a bang in his debut. He was a massive underdog, but no one told him & shut the lights of Devonte Smith off in the first round. Worthy is a dangerous, explosive fighter with one punch knockout power. He is a bit of a glass cannon with chin issues himself. Worthy is very confident though & feels he can make a title run. Worthy has won six consecutive fights & hasn’t lost since 2017. Worthy is a dangerous guy especially early in fights. He is very wild & aggressive. Worthy has 7 knockouts in under 2 minutes. Worthy is going to be undersized here. He has fought a lot of fights at 145 lbs. Worthy has a nice jab, and a good one-two. His right hand definitely has power & I’ve seen him rock & drop multiple opponents with it. Worthy has tight, straight punches with weird power to them. He has sharp, dangerous counters. He likes to explode into range with left hook, right hook combos, and when he connects, he stuns a lot of opponents. When he gets in the pocket, he is super crazy. He will throw wide hooks, uppercuts, jump knees, front kicks to the face, but doesn’t set things up. He will throw nicely timed knees to the head. He even throws standing hammerfists. He is a fun guy to watch & puts it all out there. The problem with his style is while he’s throwing out all these crazy techniques, he has virtually no defense. He has his hands down & is wide open to be hit. I have seen him dropped many times & flatlined with brutal stiff KO’s. He definitely has taken a ton of damage. His defense is his offense & if he lands first, he will take you out, but if not, he can get slept. Worthy has been knocked out 5 times. Worthy has 10 KO/TKO’s of his own.
Khama Worthy is not an offensive grappler & from what I’ve seen has very bad takedown defense. He gets taken down extremely easily whether it’s with a shot from the outside or a clinch takedown. He will try to dig double underhooks & disengage, but his wrestling is not UFC level. He will try to scramble to the back when opponents go for takedowns and will submit fighters after he drops them. Worthy has 2 rear naked chokes & has been submitted one time. Worthy has been finished in all 6 of his losses & has finished 10 of his 14 pro wins. Worthy is going to have nothing to lose here. He needs to go out there & go for the knockout like always. He has a punchers chance here.
I think Pena is probably the better fighter everywhere here, but I think the ground game will be his big edge. Worthy is the more powerful striker of the two and he is decent on the feet, so he is going to look to keep this standing and land bombs. He could possibly land more volume on the feet as well, but he needs this standing to win. Pena can win this fight anywhere though, so I do have to pick him to get his hand raised here and it should be through the ground game if he wants to play this safe. I don’t think he should be a 3-1 favorite though and Worthy could be a live dog in this spot.
Worthy is my preferred play here on DraftKings because if he wins, I think he pays off his salary. I am not confident that Pena does pay off an $8.9k salary in a win and I think he could be fairly popular because he is a popular fighter. I think this fight could be close on the feet, but Worthy has a better chance of a knockout I would think with his power and he strikes at a high enough pace to pay off a $7.3k tag. I won’t be making either guy a priority here and don’t see me having much exposure to this fight, but I am sure both guys do end up making my player pool. I wouldn’t talk you off being overweight on either guy though if you do have a strong lean but since I am picking Pena to get the win, I would rather play a guy like Gall over Worthy even though he is my preferred play.
Winner – Luis Pena via Unanimous Decision
Sean Woodson $8,900 vs Julian Erosa
Sean Woodson
Age: 28
Height: 6’2
Weight: 145
Reach: 79”
Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 267
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -490
Sean Woodson entered the UFC with a bang. He had an awesome debut against Kyle Bochniak that opened a lot of eyes. Woodson is a huge FW with great striking & a lot of potential. He has a 79” reach which is absolutely insane. Woodson is a crisp striker with great feints. He is a forward pressure striker, keeps the volume very high, and is accurate. Woodson is a very calm & calculated fighter. He will fight with a bit of a broken rhythm at times. He already holds his hands low which makes it hard to see his punches coming. Woodson will land a punch or combination, relax, breathe, feint and reset, or jump into a combination. This allows him to keep his opponents guessing & on the back foot. Woodson has a nice, long jab, good one-two, and a powerful left hook. His pull counter left hand is pretty accurate. He puts combinations together behind his jab very fluidly. Woodson will touch opponents with shots instead of putting full power into shots. He will stick opponents with long, straight punch combos. He will mix in some powerful uppercuts and hooks. Woodson will throw shots to the head & go to the body with heavy hooks & straights. Woodson is good at staying long & not smothering his work. He will throw some nasty leg kicks along with front kicks to the body. He has sick front knees up the middle to the to the body and head. Woodson has dangerous head kicks he will throw in the pocket. Woodson keeps the volume high and is very good at controlling the center of the cage. He will switch stances to cut off the cage. He picks up as the fight goes on and really pours it on in the third round. In his fight with Rashard Lovedale, he probably landed a thirty-punch combination against the cage in round 3. Woodson landed a nasty flying knee in his DWCS that earned him this contract. Training at Glory MMA should have him improving, and he has the frame on the feet to be excellent. Woodson definitely is a volume guy & doesn’t have big power. Woodson can be open to hooks & overhands over the top of his straights if fighters can get inside. He has great footwork & head movement. He can strike moving backwards very well. He is calm in the pocket, blocking & returning, but allows himself to get clinched up against the cage. Woodson has shown a good chin & is confident being undefeated. He has two KO/TKO’s.
Sean Woodson is improving his grappling every time out. In his last match, he showed the ability to deny takedowns against the cage. He defended the single legs very well and has good get-ups against the cage. Woodson can be taken down & he gives his back to stand up. He is very patient when fighters take his back. He has never been submitted. Woodson will duck under for double legs against the cage. Woodson is long & good at posturing up & landing big elbows. In his fight with Rashard Lovelace, he landed a blast double late in the fight also. Woodson isn’t big on fighting on the mat even in top position. He can be landing heavy ground & pound, and just stand up from top position. In this fight I don’t see him grappling. Woodson has one guillotine victory.
Julian Erosa
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: Yakima MMA
From: Washington
UFC Record: 1-4
Fight Matrix: 149
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +330
Julian Erosa is getting a fifth chance at victory in the UFC. He has lost four consecutive UFC fights being knocked out in 3 but does always bring it. This fight is on very short notice, and likely his last chance. Erosa is a long, lanky fighter with decent long range striking skills. He has a solid jab & good left hook. He will throw jabs to the body as well as outside low kicks. He has nice front kicks to the body. He will throw a front kick to the body to a jab combination. He has nice round kicks to the head. He does a good job of making the kick appear it’s going low & then throwing it to the head. He likes to throw lead uppercuts. He will attack the body with left hooks & straight punches. He will throw flying knees when he backs opponents against the cage. He does a good job of throwing a one-two into a front knee to the body or head. He dropped & finished Jamal Emmers after landing a head kick. He didn’t really set the kick up in my opinion & it was kind of a lucky shot. He is a flat-footed striker & likes to slowly walk opponents down but stands right in front of fighters. He doesn’t have fast hand speed & will try to counter with slow hooks. He doesn’t go first much & chooses to counter. He holds his hands low & doesn’t move his head off center line and that’s why he has been knocked out so many times. He relies on absorbing shots & wearing opponents out with the forward pressure. He likes a brawl & will taunt and talk to his opponents after he lands or takes a good shot. He does have 10 knockouts in his career and is dangerous. He definitely has chin problems & been KO’d 5 times in his career. He was just knocked out unconscious 4 months ago and is coming back very quickly.
Erosa isn’t an active grappler & will rarely initiate takedowns. He definitely will be trying to use his wrestling in reverse in this match to keep it standing. His takedown defense is not very good. He stands tall & straight in the air, so fighters can get on his legs easily. He will occasionally get double underhooks & get into top position himself. He is harder to takedown with body locks & against the cage than in the open mat. He is long & utilizes that to attack with chokes. Off his back, he has decent get-ups, but he gives up his back. He will attack from full guard with triangles, armbars & even omaplatas. He is not bad & has quite a few triangle finishes. He was taken down at will by Grant Dawson. He showed good get-ups, but his takedown defense looked to regress. In the third round he was tired & allowed Dawson to take the back & mount, and dominantly win the round. Erosa has 10 career submissions, but mostly vs low-level fighters. He did get a submission in his last fight in February. When he hurts fighters, he will jump on submissions. He has good rear naked chokes. Erosa has never been submitted.
Woodson looked very good in his UFC debut and I think this is another solid match for him. Erosa is taking this fight on short notice and he is known for having a weak chin. I don’t think Woodson has any crazy one-shot power, but I think he can put Erosa away. I do think he can style on Erosa for 3 rounds though and I don’t see Erosa having a shot of winning a striking fight here aside from a knockout. Erosa needs to look to get this fight to the ground to have a shot IMO but I have to side with Woodson to get the job done in this spot and I think he could get a late stoppage for overwhelming Erosa.
Woodson is a core play for me this weekend and Erosa is going to be a fade or close to it. I think this fight is more fun than the original matchup, but I still don’t think Erosa has much of a shot and I think Woodson pays off his price tag in a win. I like his volume and I don’t hate targeting against Erosa’s chin for the KO potential either. Not an all-in play, but I probably have Woodson in at least half my lineups this weekend and I would lock him into cash.
Winner – Sean Woodson via 3rd round (T)KO
Maurice Greene $8,600 vs Gian Villante $7,600
Maurice Greene
Age: 33
Height: 6’7
Weight: 243
Reach: 82”
Gym: FactoryX Muay Thai
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 58
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -230
Maurice Greene needs to get off the snide following two consecutive losses. He was knocked out by Sergey Pavlovich, and submitted by Alexey Oleinik, so he probably will be happy to not fight a Russian. Greene is 3-2 in the UFC but needs to win here. If Greene loses to Gian Villante, he probably doesn’t deserve to be in UFC. I really am not impressed with Mo Greene at all. On the feet, Maurice Greene is a solid athlete. He is tall, long & tries to fight long. Greene will switch stances and has good speed and athleticism for a HW. Greene has a strong jab; he has hurt opponents with the jab. He throws some good one-twos. Greene has a nice, tricky shovel uppercut. Greene throws a lot of low kicks; Inside, outside, low kicks and oblique kicks to the knee. In Greene’s match with Sergey Pavlovich, he looked horrid. He was throwing the same naked low kick, or low kick after the jab, and getting countered clean. He got rocked multiple times & finished in the first round because of it. It showed poor fight IQ also because he couldn’t adjust after getting hit. Greene will throw some nice front & round kicks to the body. Those kicks are going to be vital in this fight, because Villante is weak to the body. Greene will come forward with some dangerous blitzes closing with knees & elbows inside. Maurice Greene’s defense is not good. He will throw bad hooks inside or from too far out. He will drop his hands after he throws kicks & is just super hittable. Greene has been rocked in almost every UFC fight he’s been in. Greene is skilled offensively, but just lacks something. Greene has two KO/TKO’s in his career. His chin isn’t the greatest, and he has been knocked out three times including his kickboxing career.
Maurice Greene is a dangerous submission grappler. He doesn’t have the wrestling, but he is dangerous off his back when fighters shoot in on him. Greene has a good kimura he uses to counter takedowns attempts. His takedown defense needs a lot of improvement though. When he gets taken down, he has a dangerous guard. He will attack with triangle chokes and is good at creating scrambles to get back to his feet. Greene has four career submissions with three triangle chokes. Greene did get mauled in his last fight. He showed toughness & good submission defense, but ultimately succumbed to an armbar in round two. He was fighting a legend in Alexey Oleinik so there is no shame in that. Greene’s cardio is not the greatest, but he keeps a high pace for a HW.
Gian Villante
Age: 34
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205(HW debut)
Reach: 76”
Gym: Bellmore Kickboxing MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 7-8
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +190
Gian Villante will be making the move to HW after suffering three losses in five fights. Villante is on his last legs & has been looking progressively worse throughout the years. Villante hasn’t fought at HW since 2010 but is 6-1 at HW. Villante usually starts fights very well. He has a nasty jab, great leg kicks, and throws hard one-twos. He has a very nice overhand right, left hook combination. He throws hard & has good power. He will throw a jab, overhand right combo. He likes to throw lead left hooks. He has good body & head kicks. After the first round his volume stops significantly, and I feel his power does as well because fighters will start walking him down. He doesn’t move his head & is super hittable. I feel the jab & body shots of Greene will be hard for Gian to deal with. His durability is a bit compromised, but he doesn’t have a bad chin. He has been finished 5 times by TKO. He has 10 KO/TKO’s himself, but only 1 in his last 8 fights.
Villante is not an active wrestler and is the antithesis of a lay & prey fighter. He does have 5 UFC takedowns. He attempted a takedown in round 3 against Ed Herman when he was exhausted but did not land it. I have heard Matt Serra say he has a good grappling game & is strong on top. He says he is strangling black belts in the gym, so it will be interesting if we ever see that in the octagon. Villante has very good takedown defense and shucks off the clinch well too. He was able to stuff almost all the attempts of Patrick Cummings a D-1 wrestler, and I doubt he will get taken down in this matchup. He has never been submitted & only has two submissions himself.
I think Greene is the rightful favorite here and I think his size advantage is going to help him in this fight with this being Villante’s first trip to Heavyweight. Neither guy is great, and they don’t fight at a very high pace, but I do think this will be a back and forth striking battle and I think Greene will be the one landing more and probably landing harder as well. Villante is tough, so I think he survives but I’ll take Greene on the scorecards. Not sure I would want to lay over 2-1 on this spot though.
I don’t love either side of this fight, but I think both sides are playable. I will probably be around 10-20% on both sides of this fight and just let the optimizer decide my exposures. For my main 3 hand-built lineups, this fight will be a fade. I can’t take the chance of fading this fight with 20 or more lineups though and Greene would be my preferred play of the two because I think he has a better shot of getting a finish.
Winner – Maurice Greene via Unanimous Decision
Brendan Allen $9,200 vs Kyle Daukaus $7,000
Brendan Allen
Age: 24
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 77”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 28
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -300
Brendan Allen has been very impressive so far in his UFC career. He has won both fights via finish. Allen has won six fights in a row & at 24 years old he is looking better time in and time out. Brendan Allen is a big, confident MW with great forward pressure. His striking is not very good & he knows it. Allen looks to close the distance immediately. His last three fights he hasn’t struck very much at all. Allen does have power in his hands & likes to use head movement to get inside & throw hooks. He will paw a jab out there to find his range. Allen doesn’t have good footwork at all. He is a plodder & just closes the distance sloppily. When he gets inside, he will throw some hard knees up the middle, good uppercuts & is durable. Allen does have five KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes.
Brendan Allen is a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu & relies on his grappling. He will crash the distance into the clinch where he is very active with knees. Allen is strong & mauls opponents against the cage looking for body lock takedowns. He is very good at taking the back from standing or when he gets on top & that is primarily his game. Allen doesn’t have the greatest top control historically and can be sloppy when he tries to pass. Many fighters have out scrambled him, and that’s how he’s lost his three fights. In his last match, Allen did dominate a black belt on the mat. He was able to get to side control where he looked very heavy and landed some big ground & pound. He ultimately finished him late in round one with shots on the ground. Tom Breese looked very bad in that fight though & didn’t move much on bottom. Allen can be taken down, but overall has strong takedown defense. When he does get taken down, he will attack with armbars, triangles & leg locks. He is comfortable off his back but wants to avoid being there in this contest. He has been rear naked choked before & was almost submitted by Kevin Holland. Allen does wear fighters out with the constant forward pressure & grappling. He won’t get tired & eventually if his opponent does, he will get a dominant position & close the show. Allen has finished 12 of his 13 wins and has 8 submissions. Allen has been submitted just once & is a tough, scrappy dude.
Kyle Daukaus
Age: 27
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 76”
Gym: Martinez BJJ
From: Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 66
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: +250
Kyle Daukaus will be making his UFC debut here getting this opportunity on short notice. He is a 9-0 prospect & a good Jiu-Jitsu black belt. Daukaus has 8 submission victories in his 9 wins. He has competed on the contender series & is also the Cage Fury FC MW Champion. Daukaus isn’t bad on the feet. He is a tough, pressure fighter with solid striking. Daukaus has good boxing. He throws very nice combinations. Daukaus has a very nice straight-right hand. He will throw a left hook right after it. Sometimes Daukaus can overextend on the straight but following with the left hook saves him. He has nice straight punch combinations and switches stances well. He has tight punches in the pocket. He has very nice inside low kicks, front kicks up the middle, and head kicks. Daukaus can be a bit hittable inside. He is very tough though. Daukaus likes to break guys down on the feet but doesn’t go for knockouts. He has none in his career.
Kyle Daukaus is a nasty submission grappler. He is nasty in the clinch. He has nasty knees & elbows. He will soften fighters up in the clinch, and also loves to catch front chokes from standing. Daukaus has a great darce. He will look to catch that darce from everywhere. He uses the front chokes to defend takedowns & reverse position. Daukaus has solid body locks against the cage & is strong on top. He passes very well, gets to dominant positions & finishes the fight. He likes to take the back & has a couple rear naked choke victories. Daukaus has no issues fighting off his back also. He is dangerous with his guard. He has a nasty triangle, good armbars, will attack the legs and sweeps very well. He is very calm in bad positions and is a great scrambler. Daukaus has five darce choke submissions & 3 rear naked chokes.
I think this is actually a close fight and the value would be on the underdog IMO. Allen is the better wrestler of the two and he has more power as well, and he has solid grappling. Daukaus might be the better striker of the two though, he just doesn’t pack a lot of power. Daukaus is also a dangerous submission grappler but he doesn’t have great wrestling. Allen doesn’t have the best top control though and I could see Daukaus getting a reversal and possibly a submission that way. I don’t know how this fight goes down, but I think it should be a lot closer to even. I will side with Allen as my pick but betting wise this is Daukaus or pass and I do think there is value in that line.
This is a tough one. I think Daukaus is a live dog here and if he wins, he probably pays off the second cheapest salary on the slate and could be on the optimal. Allen is the most expensive fighter on the card and he has scored 106 and 110 DK points in his two UFC fights. I think that could be in play here again, but I don’t see him dominating Daukaus and if this fight stays standing, I don’t think there is any way he outscores his price tag. I will take a few shots on both sides of this fight, but I don’t see me making it a priority on either side. This is similar to the Perry fight where if I was making 1 lineup, I’d prefer the dog. But with MME I probably end up with more exposure to the favorite.
Winner – Brendan Allen via 2nd round Submission
Mike Perry $9,000 vs Mickey Gall $7,200
Mike Perry
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: No Association
From: Florida
UFC Record: 6-6
Fight Matrix: 29
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -290
Mike Perry has proven time & time again he has dynamite in his hands & is always dangerous. Perry is a bruiser who wants to walk opponents down and put his hands on them. He has one shot knockout power & has some brutal UFC knockouts. He has a decent jab & nice one-twos. His right hand has big knockout power, especially his overhand & hook. He will throw a straight-right hand to a left hook combination. He will mix in lead elbows & uppercuts in close range. He will attack the body with jabs & straight-rights. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs & lead leg hook kicks. He can get very static & just stand in one spot without throwing much leaving him open to be hit. He is heavy on his lead leg & very hittable. He has been dropped in multiple UFC fights & his chin has taken a beating. He has always had a speed issue & struggled with fighters who use footwork & movement. He is willing to eat shots to give his own and won’t ever quit. Even if he’s dropped, he will get back up & continue to move forward. Perry has 11 KO/TKO’s in 13 wins. He finally got his chin cracked for the first time in his career in his last match.
Perry is an underrated grappler. He is pretty explosive closing the distance into the clinch. He disguises his entries with punches & is strong in the clinch. He has good cage control & will attack with nasty knees & elbows. He has multiple finishes in the clinch in the UFC. When he is in close range like that, he doesn’t have to find opponents & it only takes one. He has decent body locks & double legs. He is very strong in the clinch, and will get in on a single, elevate & slam opponents. He has good ground & pound, decent top control & floating ability. He will look to take the back. Perry is very strong in the clinch where Mickey Gall got rag dolled by Diego Sanchez. I could see Perry landing a potential fight finishing shot off a break or in the clinch. He maybe will want to try to clinch Gall up grind & make it dirty. He has good takedown defense, and I haven’t seen much off his back. He was submitted by Donald Cerrone and showed some greenness on the ground. That was the first time he was finished in his career. Perry has never gotten a submission.
Mickey Gall
Age: 28
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Millers Brothers MMA
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 149
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +245
Mickey Gall is still very green as a striker. In his last fight he landed some decent shots early. He threw some nice kicks, straights, uppercuts & elbows. He has shown some power in his right hand dropping Mike Jackson with a right hook & dropping Sage Northcutt with an overhand right. He will try to throw his jab out there, but it lacks the snap, & opponents can easily counter him off it. He hasn’t gauged distance very well in previous fights & will be tagged with shots. He also doesn’t know how to strike moving backwards & opponents can land longer combinations against him. He seems to get uncomfortable when he gets backed to the fence and will turn his back & run away. He does have a good chin, and attitude. He doesn’t mind getting hit & will brush it off when he eats big shots. He is very confident and has a bravado in the cage. He doesn’t have any KO/TKO’s & was finished by strikes for the first time in his last fight.
Mickey Gall is a good, but not great grappler. He is actually a decent offensive wrestler. He has solid single & double legs. In top position, he really is always looking to take the back. He likes to move to side control and look for guillotines or to take the back. He will take mount & force opponents to turn with ground & pound. When he gets the back, he is very good at finishing the fight. His takedown defense is terrible though, almost nonexistent. I don’t think he will have to worry about that much in this matchup, but he was finished with G&P in his last fight. Sage Northcutt was able to stand up from under him a couple times, and Randy Brown controlled him on top. He is a good submission fighter, but not elite. All 5 of Mickey Gall’s finishes are via rear naked choke. He powered through fatigue in his last fight to win a decision, but he does slow down.
This is going to be purely a striker vs grappler match. I don’t see Gall having any chance on the feet here and if he is stuck standing, he probably gets knocked out. I also don’t think Perry wants anything to do with the ground game against Gall and if Gall can get just one takedown, that could be all he needs to lock up a submission. I think at these odds, it is a dog or pass fight for me and I would give Gall more than a 30% chance of winning which is what the implied odds are here at +230. Hard to be confident in this upset pick at all, but I don’t think Perry is the sharpest guy and it could only take one mistake for Gall to capitalize and get a finish.
We have a -265 FDGTD line on this one and this will be close to an all-in fight for me. I think Gall either gets the upset or gets knocked out. Either way, the winner has a decent chance of scoring highly. I am not sure how much of each I will end up with, but I would guess at least 30% of both sides. I would not touch this fight in cash games though because both guys have low floors and I would rather play it safer in those contests. If I was playing just one lineup I would say my preferred play is Gall here. However, with MME, I wouldn’t be surprised if I ended up with more Perry, I will just be tossing this fight into most lineups that I create, and I will probably let the optimizer decide my percentages.
Winner – Mickey Gall via 1st round Submission
Dustin Poirier $8,700 vs Dan Hooker $7,500
Dustin Poirier
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Florida
UFC Record: 17-5-1
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -225
Dustin Poirier is returning for the first time since dropping his bid at unifying the LW titles. Poirier was riding high unbeaten in six fights, defeating names like Max Holloway, Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje, Anthony Pettis, and Jim Miller. Poirier has been out around nine months but has been pining for a fight & should be ready to go. Poirier is a powerful counter southpaw striker. He has an excellent jab both to the body & head, and hard one-twos. He will throw a nasty straight-left, right hook combination. His left hook is extremely powerful & he can knock opponents out cold with it. He will switch stances & throw it as opponents are looking to exit & hits them when they don’t see it coming. Poirier has great low kicks. He has a very nice left round house kick & front kick to the body. He has adapted a style of using long range shots such as jabs & straight punches to pick at opponents, and then counter when they become aggressive. His counter left hook is nasty. His ability to counter moving backwards will be crucial in this fight. If he can’t land shots that back Hooker off it could be a long night on the feet for him. Poirier hits extremely hard especially at 155 & has more one punch power. He has 12 KO/TKO’s. He has been finished twice by strikes.
He is very good in the clinch. He will throw a straight-left hand into the single collar clinch & then throw nice uppercuts and short punches. He is excellent at getting clinch takedowns. He has very good trips & foot sweeps. He will also look for double legs. He does a great job of controlling opponents against the cage until he can take them down. He has very good takedown defense. He will attack with front chokes specifically darces to defend takedown attempts and is very good at them. Poirier is strong on top. He has good control & will also look to just land shots from opponent’s guards if he can. He postured up & battered Anthony Pettis with punches & elbows before finishing him on the ground. Pettis has an elite guard & couldn’t submit Poirier. He was able to pass the legs when Pettis went for subs & took the back several times. He will get mount & look for armbars. Poirier has 6 submissions & has only been submitted twice.
Dan Hooker
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: New Zealand
UFC Record: 10-4
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +185
Dan Hooker is getting a huge opportunity here. Fresh off his headlining victory in New Zealand, he is getting a chance at a former UFC champion. Hooker has thrusted himself into the discussion at 155 lbs, & if he defeats Poirier he will be on the cusp of a title shot. Hooker has won seven of eight fights & is quietly coming up the ladder. As a striker, he has a great jab and a nice straight-right hand. He uses great movement and angles and will keep fighters on the end of his punches. He switches stances a lot and can jab off both stances making him tricky. He also will switch stance mid combination, and throw straight punches when he sees angles to catch opponents coming in. He was able to overwhelm Burns with his precision and hurt him early. He sniped & took out James Vick in round one also. Hooker has great kicks; nice leg kicks, great round and snap kicks to the body and nice head kicks. He battered the legs of Al Iaquinta with low calf kicks that basically won him the fight. Iaquinta could barely stand by the third round. Hooker has a really nice snap front kick. He also has a great lead knee that he’s knocked out Ross Pearson and Jim Miller with. He is a vet and does a great job of picking up the pace as the fight goes on with great cardio. He has 6 KO/TKO’s. He was finished by strikes for the first time in his career vs Edson Barboza. He took an ungodly amount of damage to all parts of the body. His legs were battered he got dropped several times & was finished with body shots.
Hooker is a solid grappler, but not much of a wrestler. He will try to close the distance and get the fight against the cage. He will try to get singles and double legs. He also has good clinch trips, and his height gives him an advantage in those positions. He does a good job of getting the back when he gets on top, and he has good control, and long arms which he can find a choke with. His takedown defense is not great, but he has an awesome guillotine he will counter with when fighters attempt takedowns, and he has a great squeeze. He has 7 career submissions. He is susceptible to being beat up and submitted if he’s put on his back and has been submitted twice.
This is going to be an awesome fight. Both guys fight at a pretty high pace and there is no such thing as a boring Poirier fight. I do give the edge to Poirier in this fight because I think he will be the one pushing the pace, throwing more volume, as well as landing the harder shots. I think the early rounds could be close though while Hooker is fresh, and I don’t think you could favor Poirier over 2-1 if this was a 3-round fight. However, Hooker slowed down in his 5-round fight against Felder and if he does that against Poirier I think he could be in trouble because Poirier will push the pace for a hard 5-rounds and I favor him in the championship rounds pretty heavily. I think Poirier would be good for at least a 48-47 judges decision here if it hits the scorecards, but I am going to take him to get a late 4th or 5th round finish.
This is going to be an all-in fight for me on DraftKings and I would personally rather stack this in a GPP rather than fade it. Any Poirier fight is going to be high action, and at their salaries I have a hard time seeing the winner not on the optimal lineup. Poirier has the highest ceiling on the card with his output and 5-rounds to work with, so he is my preferred play, but probably like 65/35 type deal. This is an auto stack in cash games as well. If you are picking Hooker and want to go 65/35 in favor of him I think that is fine as well. I will just be sure to load up on this fight and more so on the Diamond side.
Winner – Dustin Poirier via 5th round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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