BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 3 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Vegas that will have no fans in attendance due to the pandemic. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a bunch of money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $150k goes to 1st place with $600k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Max Rohskopf $8,400 vs Austin Hubbard $7,800
Max Rohskopf
Age: 25
Height: 6’1
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Zenith MMA
From: Ohio
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 328
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -185
Max Rohskopf has only been a pro since 2018 but is already getting his UFC debut here. He is one of the bigger prospects on the regional scene. Rohskopf is a fantastic grappler & has buzz sawed his way to a 5-0 record. He has finished all five of his opponents, four in round one. Rohskopf on the feet is very green. He likes to use a wide stance. He is big long & athletic for the division, but super hittable. He floats his chin way in the air & really doesn’t look great on the feet. He will let some jabs go, has some okay kicks, but really looks amateur in comparison to a UFC level striker. He does have power. I have seen him sit down an opponent early with an overhand right. Rohskopf will be in trouble in this fight if he can’t get it to the mat though.
Max Rohskopf is an elite grappler. At 6’2 and 155 lbs he is huge for the weight class & very physically imposing. Rohskopf is a former division one wrestler, and a sick black belt. Rohskopf has submitted some world class grapplers in grappling matches. In MMA, Rohskopf has great entries into his takedowns. He also loves to snatch up the neck from standing. He is also very good in scrambles and just an excellent grappler overall. He has a nasty front head lock position which is the key to his ground game. He is extremely strong, will snap opponents down & attacks with many different front chokes. He has a filthy squeeze & can put opponents to sleep quickly. Rohskopf has choked out all five of his victims in MMA. Rohskopf is still very green. He has never been out of round two & has only been out of round one once. He is a mystery, but we do know his grappling is world class. At 25 years old he is a strong prospect for the division.
Austin Hubbard
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 140
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +160
Austin Hubbard has been up & down so far and needs a win here. He had a fun fight but lost a 29-28 decision to Mark O. Madsen in March. Hubbard has fought much stiffer competition than Rohskopf has. He is training at Elevation Fight Team, a team that is on a tear right now as well. Hubbard is a solid athlete with good striking, & very good movement. He uses a lot of false starts, fakes & feints along with stance switching. Hubbard is a counter striker, but he’s excellent at going forward, cutting off the cage, and staying in his opponent’s face. He has a fast jab & nice one-two. He will feint to create openings for his straight-right hand. He has pretty solid in & out movement. He likes to leap into a left hook. He will throw straight-right to left hooks to the body. He also will throw very nice left hooks to the body to left hooks to the head combinations. He has nice counter uppercuts & front knees. In his last match, he hurt his opponent badly with a knee and broke his jaw. He likes to throw front leg round kicks to the body. He will mix in spinning backfists & spinning back kicks to the body. He can be low output & tends to wait for opponents to strike to counter. He will stand in front of opponents at times & is heavy on his lead leg. He can also be hit by overhands & straight punches. Hubbard isn’t a big power hitter but has three career TKO’s. He’s never been finished by strikes.
Austin Hubbard is a pretty decent wrestler. He does do a good job of using his punches to create entries into singles & doubles and has pretty good back takes. When fighters pressure him, he tends to be hittable & wants to shoot takedowns. Hubbard in this fight is obviously going to want to try to keep it on the feet. His takedown defense is improving but not great. He does have good get-ups against the cage. Hubbard was able to survive some bad positions against good guys on the mat & is a tough guy to finish. He has been submitted one time. He has 3 career submissions.
Rohskopf is making his UFC debut here on 6 days’ notice. He looks like a solid prospect though and he is very solid on the ground. He has good wrestling and grappling, and he should have a huge edge on the mat. He will be at a disadvantage on the feet though and I’d say power is the only attribute he would be better at in the striking game. Hubbard can be taken down though, and I think if Rohskopf get it to the mat he can finish this fight. I do think he will be looking for takedowns early and often, so I am going to lean with him as my pick by submission.
I think Rohskopf has a high ceiling and a good chance of getting at least 10x in a win here. I expect him to be popular, but I do like him a good amount in this spot and he is easily my preferred play of the two. I think he could be one of the highest owned fighters on the slate, but I am still going to look to go overweight. I like his price tag a lot and I think he has 100+ potential here. I don’t think he is a lock by any means, but I like his potential in a win. I think Hubbard could be live here I just don’t think he has much success early and if he wins this fight I don’t know how likely it is that he even gets 10x. I would be fading Hubbard with 20 or less lineups this week but if I go 50 or more I will get a small amount of hedge exposure and I do expect him to be low owned.
Winner – Max Rohskopf via 1st round Submission
Roxanne Modafferi $8,500 vs Lauren Murphy $7,700
Roxanne Modafferi
Age: 37
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: Syndicate MMA
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 3-4
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -125
Roxanne Modafferi will be stepping into the octagon Saturday night as the favorite for the first time in her UFC career. Modafferi is a pioneer of women’s MMA & even at 37 years old, 17 years deep in the game, she is in the top five of her division. Modafferi cashed as a 6 to 1 underdog in her last fight. She has picked up a new strength and conditioning regimen, improved her striking & looks better than she ever has. Modafferi has been trading wins & losses and needs to finally win two in a row in the UFC and find some consistency. Roxanne Modafferi is never going to be an elite striker, but she has steadily worked on it. She has improved her footwork a lot, she throws straighter punches & hits harder. She dropped Maycee Barber with a straight punch in her last match. She has a solid jab, good head movement and improved lateral movement. She will throw straight punches, but sometimes struggles to find range and throws at air. She has ok hand speed and can land the straight-right hand. She will throw inside leg kicks, high kicks and tries to be tricky throwing question mark kicks and spinning backfists. She tries to keep high volume and throw a lot of shots. She is much better now at going first & being willing to take a shot to give one. She doesn’t have knockout power, but she has a strong chin and lives up to her nickname of the Happy Warrior. She has only been finished twice by strikes in her career. She will finish fighters when she can get mount position & has 6 KO/TKO’s. She has finished 5 of her last 6 wins 4 by TKO.
Modafferi is a strong grappler showing that off in her last match. She has gotten better at entries for her judo trips and clinch takedowns. She was able to continuously get ahold of Barber in the clinch & take her down. She got a nice double leg takedown against Barb Honchak and has pretty solid timing. When she gets on top, she will land hard, heavy elbows and go for the finish. She probably has the best mount in the division, and when she gets there has phenomenal control and throws hard punches and elbows. She has finished many recent fights this way. She has good submissions like armbars & RNCs. She can get bullied in the clinch and controlled like she was vs Emily Whitmire and Nikko Montano. She was taken down by Sijara Eubanks multiple times. She doesn’t have great takedown defense, but she is good off her back. She has good armbars, triangles and is active off her back. She can get hit with ground & pound elbows. She slows down as the fight goes on but showed strong cardio in her last fight. She has 6 submissions & been submitted 3 times in her career.
Lauren Murphy
Age: 36
Height: 5’8
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Main Street Boxing
From: Alaska
UFC Record: 4-5
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +105
Lauren Murphy has looked good recently winning three of four fights. Since moving down to 125 lbs she has looked much better. Murphy is coming off the biggest win of her career, defeating KGB Andrea Lee by split decision. She has won two in a row & is undefeated since moving her camp to Main Street boxing & Muay Thai in Houston, Texas. Murphy is no spring chicken herself at 36 years old, and this is a pivotal fight for both women. I really don’t rate Murphy’s striking very highly. She has slow feet, slow hands & is hittable as she plods into range. Murphy likes to throw a lot of left hook, straight-right hand combinations. She will throw the straight-right hand to the body also. Murphy will wing some overhands and uppercuts in close range. She timed a nice uppercut as her opponent went for a takedown that rocked them. Murphy will throw some occasional high kicks. In her last match, she stuffed a takedown, landed a knee to the head & got a knockout victory. Murphy is a finisher with 8 KO/TKO victories in 11 wins. She has won two of her three UFC fights by KO/TKO. Murphy is very hittable as she enters range, but durable. Fighters with fast hands & fast feet can hit & move on Murphy fairly easily. Murphy has decent head movement while closing distance, but in exchanges her hands are slow & she’s there to be countered. In her fight with Sijara Eubanks, she was hurt with some big punches. Murphy has never been finished by strikes.
Lauren Murphy is a good grappler & I imagine she looks to wrestle in this contest. Murphy isn’t the most proficient wrestler, but she actually has a fast-single leg shot. She will shoot doubles. Murphy is pretty good in top position. She will posture up & throw down heavy punches & elbows. Murphy looks to smash opponent’s faces in on top instead of looking for the submissions. She has finished a majority of her matches with ground & pound. Lauren Murphy has good takedown defense & get-ups. She was able to compete in the grappling realm with Jiu-Jitsu black belt Sijara Eubanks. Lauren Murphy also had two takedowns against a very good grappler in Liz Carmouche. Lauren Murphy’s game off her back is pretty solid. She is very flexible & offensive with her guard. Murphy will attack triangles, omaplatas, gogoplatas, and the rubber guard. She will throw nice elbows off her back and stays active. Murphy will attack leg locks & has solid sweeps. Murphy has yet to get a submission in MMA, nor has she been submitted. Murphy is someone who maybe isn’t the most talented but will bring it. She will come in shape, push for three rounds & never give up. Murphy gets 100% out of her capabilities.
I like Murphy on the feet in this matchup, but I’d slightly favor Roxy on the mat. I think Roxy is the better grappler of the two, but I don’t know that she is the better wrestler and if she can’t get the fight to the mat I think she gets out struck on the feet. If Roxy can get the fight to the mat, I think she can keep Murphy on her back or even find a submission, but I am going to take Murphy because I think she can stuff takedowns and have enough success on the feet to get her hand raised.
I don’t see either of these fighters having 100+ potential in this fight and I think we could be lucky to get 10x from either one. My preferred play is Murphy because she is an underdog I like to win, and I think she can rack up enough strikes and get near 10x. I just don’t see her being a fighter that wins me $150k so I doubt I get too much of her. She will make my pool, but I might be in line with the field on her. Roxy will mostly be a fade for me with 20 or less lineups. I just don’t see her having enough grappling success to score highly and at $8.5k I don’t think she pays that off in a win. I don’t know if I will play any cash this week, but I think Murphy does make for a good cash game play at her price and I think she will have 15-minutes of points to rack up even if she does lose.
Winner – Lauren Murphy via Unanimous Decision
Frank Camacho $8,000 vs Justin Jaynes
Frank Camacho
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 33”
Gym: Trench Tech
From: Guam
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: 139
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -380
Frank Camacho is looking to get back on track after a quick submission loss at the hands of Benny Dariush. Camacho has lost three of four fights but had been fighting absolute hammers. Camacho’s last three losses have come against Drew Dober, Geoff Neal, and Beneil Dariush. Camacho has good forward pressure, and has no problem sticking in the pocket & taking shots to keep opponents on the back foot. He has a nice jab & good one-two. He will try to pull counter off his one-two, but he tends to lean back with his chin high. He will just eat the return shots and come back with hook & uppercut combos. He has a heavy overhand right. He will throw an overhand right, left hook combination. He will mix in hooks to the body. He likes to throw a left hook to the body to a straight-right hand. When he backs an opponent against the cage, he will plant his feet & let go with long with long combinations to the body and head. He does an excellent job of attacking the body. Camacho doesn’t throw a ton of kicks, but he has a nice front & round kick to the body. He will throw the front kick, followed directly by the one-two. He will throw step-in knees to the body also. He tends to try to pour it on in round 3 regardless if he’s tired or not. He will start to walk opponents down much more & just be willing to absorb shots to give his own. I felt he actually beat Drew Dober by digging deep in round 3. Camacho tends to get very tired in segments of the fight but gets a second wind. He relies heavily on his chin, and it will be interesting to see if he comes back the same after the beating he took at the hands of Geoff Neal. He took a massive amount of damage before getting knocked out by a brutal head kick. He really struggled with the movement of Neal and barely landed any punches. Camacho hits hard especially at 155, he has 16 KO/TKO’s, but is still in search of his first one in the UFC. Camacho has been finished 4 times by KO/TKO.
Frank Camacho is a brown belt champion in Jiu-Jitsu & a solid wrestler. He is strong in the clinch. He likes to dig underhooks & land trip takedowns. He likes to get to side control & has pretty good guard passing. When he gets to side control, he likes to get a crucifix, and attacks the body with knees. Fighters have been able to scramble up from bottom on him & I don’t think he has the greatest top control. He has strong takedown defense himself. He was able to reverse the takedown attempts of Drew Dober & take top position off his takedown attempts. He has a good single leg takedown also. When he was taken down by Damien Brown, Brown quickly took his back & almost choked him out. He did allow Beneil Dariush to take his back & sub him. He needs to avoid being put on his back, and keep the fight standing. Camacho has only 3 submissions & isn’t a big threat there. He has been submitted twice in his career.
Justin Jaynes
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 155
Reach: 67”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Vegas
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 245
Last Fought: 12 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +290
Jaynes is taking this fight on 2 days’ notice to make his UFC debut. He looks like he has some OK wrestling, but he is going to be at a big disadvantage on the feet. I think he could have some early success with takedowns, but I don’t trust he has the cardio to wrestle enough to win this fight on the scorecards and his grappling didn’t look dangerous enough for me to think he can get a submission. I think Frank picks him apart on the feet and gets a 2nd or 3rd round (T)KO here.
On DraftKings, Camacho is going to stay at $8k and Jaynes will be very cheap when they add him. This looks like a free square and an almost all in spot on Camacho. We are getting him at dog odds, but he is one of the biggest favorites on the card. That is a lock in cash games and the only reason to fade him is because he will be ~70% owned. I will load up on him personally and I am fading Jaynes.
Winner – Frank Camacho via 2nd round (T)KO
Gillian Robertson $8,300 vs Cortney Casey $7,900
Gillian Robertson
Age: 25
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 63”
Gym: Din Thomas Gym
From: Canada
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 30
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -120
Gillian Robertson is making her seventh UFC appearance which will be tied with Roxanne Modafferi for most FLW fights in history. She is 4-2 so far in her career & proven to be a very entertaining fighter. Robertson has never been to decision in the UFC. She is coming off a decisive loss to Maycee Barber where she was finished by TKO on her feet in the first round. She doesn’t have much striking to speak of. She just really likes to circle, fake & feint, and try to get in on a single leg. She will throw a one-two & a jab. Her hand speed is not good & she doesn’t sit down and put power on her shots yet. She doesn’t bring her feet with her when she punches & is always off balance. She will end some combos with high kicks. Robertson is super hittable & was taken out on the feet in her last match. She got overwhelmed against the fence and couldn’t get Barber off her. Gillian has been finished twice by strikes. Gillian has just one TKO herself.
Gillian Robertson is a hyper aggressive, Jiu-Jitsu brown belt. She is a specialist & always looking to time an entry & bring the fight to the mat. Robertson has two specific entries she uses most often. Robertson likes to use double legs to come up into body lock trips. She also has a nasty single leg. Robertson will also pull guard & uses it to sweep very well. She is good at attacking the legs. When Robertson gets on top, she is vicious. Robertson is an excellent passer & is always working to improve position. Robertson will move to half guard and dig her shoulder & head into her opponent’s chins. She keeps super heavy top pressure makes opponents very uncomfortable & creates passing opportunities. Robertson also uses ground & pound to improve position as well. She will throw some ground & pound to get opponents thinking & quickly pass to a better position. Robertson has an excellent mount where she will rain down punches & elbows. She is also very good when she can take the back. Robertson is very good with control on the back and has a nasty rear naked choke. Robertson also will attack armbars from the back mount. All of Robertson’s wins in the UFC have come on the mat. She has an armbar, two rear naked chokes & a TKO with elbows from the mount. Robertson did get caught slipping one time & was armbarred late in round one of a fight with Mayra Bueno Silva. She has to be very diligent on top against a fighter like Casey. Robertson can be a little sloppy with her passes at times and get reversed or allow opponents to stand up. Overall, she does have one of the most dangerous top games in the 125 lb division. I haven’t seen an opponent shoot a takedown on her in the UFC, but the small periods I’ve seen her on her back she looks good at sweeping and creating scrambles.
Cortney Casey
Age: 33
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Fight Ready MMA
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 5-6
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +100
Cortney Casey had a successful showing in her new division a little under a month ago. She earned a quick submission victory and is looking to turn around here & move into the rankings with back to back wins. Cortney Casey is a rangy boxer with nice, low calf kicks. She has a wide stance & plods forward cutting the cage off fairly well. Casey stands very flat footed though and is low volume at times. She likes to sit in the pocket and trade. When she is forced to go first she comes up short a lot just because she doesn’t have the fastest feet. She does have nice straights down the middle, a decent one-two, and good uppercuts. She will come forward with blitz attacks, and if fighters want to trade she will throw down. Casey has below average striking defense, but I don’t think that matters in this matchup. Casey has some pop but doesn’t have fight ending power. She only has three TKO victories, one via ground & pound and two via doctors’ stoppage. Casey is durable never being finished by strikes.
Cortney Casey showed off her Jiu-Jitsu once again in her last match. She caught a nice armbar, which has been her specialty on the mat. Casey isn’t offensive with her wrestling, but good off her back. Her takedown defense is not very good. Her stance being wide will also give up single leg takedowns I feel. Casey also is going to be weaker in the clinch. When Casey gets taken down, she is very active with her guard. She has a really nice armbar. She likes the belly down armbar. Casey is good at climbing the cage to set them up. She will throw up triangles as well. When Casey can sweep to top position, she is very strong. She has heavy ground & pound, quickly moves to dominant positions & loves the back. She will attack rear naked chokes & has finished a fight with G&P. Casey has four career submissions. She has good cardio & is always down to scrap.
The ground game is where this fight is going to be interesting. Both ladies can finish on the ground, but Robertson is going to be the one aggressively looking to get the fight to the mat. She is completely outgunned on the feet in this matchup so her only shot is the ground game. Casey’s weakness is being put on her back, but she does have subs there and I don’t think Robertson can aggressively wrestle for a hard 3 rounds. If Robertson doesn’t get a submission here, I think she could be in trouble. I like Casey to pretty much dominate while this fight is on the feet and I think the longer this fight goes the more it will favor her. Hard to trust her staying off her back but she is my pick in this one and I think she gets a late finish.
This is a fight I am very interested in for DK. I think the winner gets over 10x and I think 100+ is in play for both. Gillian has never scored less than 100 in a win and if she wins here it will be through her grappling and it should be a high score. I think if she wins, she has a great chance of being on the optimal lineup. I also think Casey can finish this fight herself and maybe even get a round 1 KO for the 100+, but I like her more later in the fight and if she doesn’t score much in round 1 then she could be capped and her being on the optimal lineup is much less likely than Gillian would be with the win. I am going to go overweight to both fighters here, but Casey is an underdog I am picking to win so I might go a bit heavier on her and I expect her to be the lower owned of the two.
Winner – Cortney Casey via 3rd round (T)KO
Oskar Piechota $8,600 vs Marc-Andrea Barriault $7,600
Oskar Piechota
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 76”
Gym: 71
From: Poland
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -120
Oskar Piechota can’t seem to get off the snide. He has lost three fights in a row & been finished in all three. Prior to this three-fight losing streak, Oskar was undefeated, so it could have ruined his confidence as well. Piechota is an average striker. He is a southpaw & tries to fight rangy. He has decent lateral footwork and will walk opponents into straight & overhand lefts. Oskar will throw heavy right hooks both to the body & head to setup the left straight. He will throw some short hooks & overhands inside but tends to counter & use one shot attacks. When forced to go first, he will overextend on punches & looks a bit awkward closing the distance. Fighters who can pressure him will draw out bad punches & be able to counter. Piechota seems to struggle with combination punchers & lacks defense. Piechota has solid rear leg attacks. He will throw dangerous high kicks which have earned him knockouts before. Piechota is a sniper & one shot can change the fight. He has a lot of one shot finishes. Piechota has 5 KO/TKO’s. Oskar is very tough & when he gets stunned, he will plant his feet & go to war. We saw this against Gerald Meerschaert where he took a big onslaught of punishment. He finally had his chin cracked & got finished in his 1st match.
Oskar Piechota is a credentialed Jiu-Jitsu artist. He is a black belt under Robert Drysdale & ADCC competitor. He is going to have the Jiu-Jitsu advantage on the ground. Piechota is a decent wrestler. He times body locks in the clinch well and will chain wrestle against the cage. When he gets opponents down, he passes to side control aggressively, and forces opponents to give up mount or the back. When opponents try to belly down & stand up, Piechota has a good front head lock series. He will attack with Peruvian neckties to snap opponents back down & circle to the back. Piechota has a very good rear naked choke. In his fight with Gerald Meerschaert, he was out grappled & eventually submitted. Meerschaert was able to get a body lock fairly easily & when he took him to the ground & did some damage, Piechota gassed out very quickly. Meerschaert seemed much stronger when he got in on the clinch. Piechota has no quit in him on the mat & went out cold trying to fight the rear naked choke vs Meerschaert. Piechota’s bottom game looked better vs Rodolfo Viera, but he was ultimately submitted again. Piechota has a dangerous guard and was attacking triangles & armbars. He will look to get the butterfly guard & stand back to his feet. If he is to get taken down by Barriault, I think he will have a much better chance at sweeping or submitting. Piechota does have 5 submissions but has been submitted in consecutive fights. Piechota has questionable cardio & needs to address that. He tends to tire in grappling heavy fights.
Marc-Andre Barriault
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Nova Gym
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-3
Fight Matrix: 151
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +100
Marc-Andre Barriault has been nothing short of disappointing in the UFC. He is winless in his first three fights & on the verge of being cut. Unlike Piechota, at least Barriault has made it to decision in all three losses. Barriault tries to be a more technical striker & slow down the pace. He has a good jab both to the head & body, and a nice left hook. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand. He will throw a left hook, right hook, right uppercut combination. He has good hand speed & does a good job of going over & around an opponent’s guard with combination punches. He has decent footwork, but he can be flat footed at times & is heavy on his lead leg. He will allow opponents to back him up and can shell up at times when opponents get aggressive on him. He does have big power & has knocked out his last two opponents. He has 8 KO/TKO’s overall. He has never been finished.
Barriault is an average grappler in my opinion. He is strong in the clinch. He has nasty knees to the body & will throw heavy uppercuts and hooks to the body. He has solid wrestling against the cage. He is heavy in half guard & will slow cook opponents with short punches & elbows. He will try to trap an arm & let shots go. He has a decent back take. In his last win, he took the mount, showed strong control & finished his opponent brutally with punches & elbows. Barriault’s takedown defense is questionable. He can be flat footed & fighters are able to close the distance & push him against the cage rather easily. He can be out muscled in the clinch, and I have seen him get tossed head over heels more than once when fighters take his back standing. He will attack with a kimura to counter the attempt or create a scramble to stand up. Barriault can be controlled & lose fights on his back though. He has never been submitted & has no submissions.
I think Oskar is going to be the better fighter everywhere in this fight, for 1 round. After that, he probably starts to slow down and the longer this fight goes the more it should shift in favor of Barriault. I think Barriault has more power and the better cardio and that could be enough to get the job done here. I think he will need to win rounds 2 and 3 to get his hand raised but I could see him getting a late finish here once Piechota gasses.
Piechota is the one with a ceiling in this fight but Barriault is a dog I am picking to win. That makes this a tough one for me. I think Barriault is my preferred play because I am picking him to get the win, but I don’t see him scoring very well. I think Piechota has the better chance of getting 100+ here with his 1st round finish potential but I don’t want to invest much in him because I don’t think he is that good and I am picking Barriault to survive round 1 and go on to win. This is going to be a fight I get exposure to both sides of, but neither would be a core play for me at all, and with a small number of lineups I think you can fade this and hope for a boring decision.
Winner – Marc-Andre Barriault via 3rd round (T)KO
Brianna Van Buren $9,000 vs Tecia Torres $7,200
Brianna Van Buren
Age: 26
Height: 4’11
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: AKA
From: California
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -210
Brianna Van Buren will be taking her second UFC June 20th, and the UFC must see a lot in her. They are giving her an opportunity to take out an aging name in Tecia Torres. Van Buren is a protégée of Daniel Cormier & has looked beastly in recent fights. She won the Invicta one-night tournament & followed that up defeating former Invicta champion Livia Souza in her UFC debut. Van Buren has won six consecutive fights & hasn’t lost since 2015. On the feet, Van Buren is good, but green. She is fast & quick in & out. She closes a lot of distance very quickly. Van Buren likes to use a lot of fakes, feints, false starts, level changes & be tricky. She will also go up & down with her punches and kicks attacking the body & head. All this opens up her wrestling which is what she truly wants to do. Van Buren will throw jab, overhand rights. She will feint level changes or body shots & come up into uppercuts. She has a nice counter left hook. Van Buren does have some decent blitz combinations. She will start with straight punches to the body & then go up to the head. When she can back fighters up, she will dig hooks to the body and head, and has pretty good hand speed. Van Buren is good at using kicks. She has nice low kicks. Van Buren has nice, hard body kicks. She will throw some high kicks and front kicks up the middle. Van Buren has good knees as well. Her footwork is a little bit choppy though. She only goes forward and backwards and doesn’t use lateral movement. She is hittable & doesn’t have the best defense against higher level strikers. She is very hard to pressure though because of her wrestling, and she likes to do the pressuring. She throws high volume and is clearly improving her striking. She won her last match with a tough Livia Souza almost solely on the feet.
Brianna Van Buren is an awesome wrestler. I would say she is one of the most physical & best wrestlers in all of women’s strawweight. Van Buren has great timing & fast level changes on her single & double legs. She will effortlessly finish & get nice slams. Van Buren is also very good at getting trips against the cage. Van Buren on top has nice control & top pressure. She is a good passer and throws hard ground & pound. She is good at turking the legs to avoid opponent’s full guard. Van Buren is good at trapping the far side wrist from half guard or side control & landing punches. She has a good mount and back take. When Van Buren takes the back or mount, she will look for the neck & armbars. Van Buren was taken down a couple times by Souza but showed good Jiu-Jitsu skills. Against a black belt, she hit an omaplata & used it to scramble back to her feet. Van Buren also showed patience and good fight IQ when she took down Souza and was able to pass Souza’s guard.
Tecia Torres
Age: 30
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 61”
Gym: Pound for Pound Fitness
From: Florida
UFC Record: 6-5
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L4
Betting Odds: +175
Tecia Torres desperately needs a different result in this next fight. I feel not only is her UFC career on the line, but her MMA career as well. If Torres loses five in a row and gets cut, I don’t see her going back to the regional scene and trying to work her way back up. She is a pioneer for women’s MMA in the UFC, but she may be done. Torres has changed it up. She left ATT and is back in Colorado training with her fiancée Raquel Pennington who is also on this card. Torres is getting a step down in competition, but no slouch here in Van Buren. Torres is probably the better striker here. She has crisper movement and uses lateral movement to counter much better. Torres is good at moving backwards, keeping range with counters & kicks & then blitzing in occasionally with offense of her own. Torres likes to throw counter hooks moving backwards. She has nice front & sidekicks to the body. She has a quick one-two and will blitz forward to the body and head with decent punches. Torres sets her blitzes up well with fakes & feints. Her striking just isn’t too impactful. She isn’t powerful & stronger girls in the division have been willing to eat her shots, walk her down & take one to give one. Torres also is very risk adverse at times & allows opponents to dictate the fight. Torres was hardly ever able to get inside on Marina Rodriguez. Torres is hard to hit, has a good chin & has never been finished. Torres has no finishes with strikes herself.
Tecia Torres is a pretty strong grappler. She is one of the physically stronger, more athletic girls for the division which gives her an advantage. Torres is pretty explosive, and her in & out, blitzing, striking style creates openings for double legs. Torres is also very strong in the clinch. Tecia isn’t the best wrestler, but she can mix it up at times. Her top game is nothing to write home about, and she isn’t very dangerous on the mat either. Torres’ defensive wrestling isn’t bad but isn’t great. She can give up takedowns and be grinded out. Torres is a good scrambler, has an active guard, and isn’t a slouch on bottom. She just can get taken down multiple times which leads to her losing rounds. Torres is going to need to have her defensive wrestling on point for this fight. Torres has one submission & never been finished. Torres has also never had a cardio problem, always coming in top shape. With four consecutive losses you do have to question her confidence level. Torres is still in search of her first win in nearly 3 years.
I like Van Buren here and I think she has championship caliber potential. She is a great wrestler and I think she can have an edge there against basically anybody in the division. She has decent striking as well though and can win this fight anywhere. Torres is scrappy and can keep this fight close, but I see Van Buren landing the harder shots with more volume and she always has the wrestling she can fall back on.
This is probably Van Buren or pass for me. I don’t love her price tag, but I think she could pay it off if she looks to wrestle in this fight. I think she could get multiple takedowns in each round and have a solid ceiling here. I do like her in all formats, but I don’t know that I look to go overweight on her and I could see an ~80-point decision win happening, which I doubt would be enough. I do want some exposure to her though where I doubt Torres even makes my player pool. If she kills me then so be it, but I don’t think she has a lot of paths to scoring over 10x her $7.2k salary.
Winner – Brianna van Buren via Unanimous Decision
Bobby Green $9,100 vs Clay Guida $7,100
Bobby Green
Age: 33
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Pinnacle MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 5-5-1
Fight Matrix: 75
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 1-3-1
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -235
Bobby Green is finally getting a matchup he’s been wanting a long time. Bobby Green & Clay Guida have been chirping back & forth for years, and actually were scheduled to fight in 2018. Green is a close friend of Nate Diaz, who Clay Guida has fought with not only inside the UFC octagon, but outside as well. Guida has had a long-time rivalry with the scrap pack & Bobby wants to get one back. Bobby Green is a stance switching fighter with good boxing skills. He holds his hands low and uses a lot of head movement and shoulder rolling to avoid punches. He has a great jab to the body & head and will follow that jab with a hard-right hook, or straight-right hand. He has a nice overhand right. He has a nice check left hook. He likes to throw oblique kicks to the knees, and front kicks to the body. He catches kicks well and will return with counter punches. He will throw nice round kicks to the body & head, and he keeps heavy forward pressure and volume on opponents. He lands 5 significant strikes per minute. He will walk opponents down with his hands by his side, countering and landing hard body shots. He is hittable with overhands, but he has a great chin and rolls with a lot of shots lessening the impact. He has the ability to get dropped and hurt badly such as vs Lando Vannata and recover and perform. He has 8 KO/TKO’s and has only been finished twice with strikes.
Bobby Green is a former wrestler and a strong grappler. He is very athletic and can close the distance into the clinch quickly. He does a good job of digging an underhook, pushing his opponents to the cage and landing knees to the body & elbows to the head. He was landing nasty punches and elbows in the pocket against Eric Koch. He will attempt body lock takedowns, and he has good slam double legs, but he rarely puts much effort into getting the fight to the ground. He has great takedown defense, and he is extremely hard to hold down. If fighters can put him on his back, he isn’t very dangerous, and they don’t have to really worry about getting submitted. On top, he has good submissions; He has a nice arm triangle & good rear naked chokes. He has 9 career submissions, but only one in the UFC. He has been submitted two times himself. He has phenomenal cardio, and usually is stronger in the third round than in the first.
Clay Guida
Age: 38
Height: 5’7
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 15-13
Fight Matrix: 56
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +195
Clay Guida is making his return after over a year away from the octagon. He will be looking for a better showing than he had last time where he was finished in less than a minute. Clay Guida obviously is a legend, strike force champion, UFC HoFer & a tough dude. At 38 years old he’s definitely seen his better days though. Everyone knows what Guida brings to the table at this point. A lot of movement on the feet, relentless wrestling, and a great gas tank. He is light on his feet & has good in & out movement. Since moving to Team Alpha Male he is much more about forward pressure. They have made his head movement less frenetic and more economical, and he’s doing a better job of blending his wrestling with his striking. He has a decent jab & will throw a jab, leg kick combination. He will throw a jab, left hook. He has a nice outside leg kick to overhand right combination. He will throw the overhand right as a lead also. His straight-right hand is nice & his hand speed isn’t bad. He will fake shots and come over the top with hooks. He does a good job of slipping shots and coming back with his own, but I think he’s susceptible to straight punches right down the pipe. He still is using a ton of movement and it makes him hard to hit and hard to tell if he’s going to shoot a takedown or attack with strikes standing. He got a fast knockout of Joe Lauzon, but that says more about Lauzon than it does about Guida. He landed a right hook that rocked him, then dropped him with a right uppercut, left hook combination. Guida has never been known to have big power in his hands. It was his 2nd KO/TKO in 26 UFC fights. He has shown good durability over his career but been getting hurt a lot lately. He was finished in less than a minute by submission after being rocked in two of his last three fights. He isn’t as durable as he once was.
Guida is a relentless, grinding wrestler. He was able to dominate Eric Koch by taking him down against the cage and getting control time and ground and pound damage from top position. He has good double leg & body lock takedowns. He is good getting opponents on the back foot, getting in on a double and getting the takedowns against the cage. He is good at circling to the back and dragging his opponent to the mat directly into side control. He will take the mount & has nice ground & pound. He doesn’t have extremely powerful ground & pound, but he throws a lot of volume and can break opponents with his pressure & pace. He has good top control. He will look to take the back & go for rear naked chokes. He has decent arm triangles as well. He tends to leave his head inside on takedowns and gets guillotined. He will also panic wrestler when he’s hurt & that’s what leads to most of his submission losses. He has been submitted 9 times in his career. He has great cardio, he doesn’t get tired and that is one of his biggest advantages in his fights.
Green is the better striker here so Guida’s path to victory is going to be his wrestling. I think Guida could have success with takedowns and if he can get them then he can win rounds that way and I think he is a live dog. I just think Green is probably going to piece him up on the feet and stuff most takedowns Guida shoots for. If Guida does get takedowns, then I think Green is more likely to get back up than be submitted and I am going to take him to get the win via TKO or decision.
Green is my preferred play here and I don’t have a lot of interest in Guida. I think Green is going to be way better and faster on the feet and he could get a KO any round. He could also rack up some sig strikes along the way, but he hasn’t showed the pace I would like him to recently and we are likely relying on a finish at his $9.1k salary. I think he can get it and pay off that tag, but I am not confident in that happening at all, so I will limit my exposure. I think he is a fine cash game play as well. Guida is a guy that might make 1-2 of my lineups in case he can turn back time and dominate with his wrestling game, but I doubt that will be the case, so he isn’t the worst fade if you want to take that route.
Winner – Bobby Green via 2nd round (T)KO
Roosevelt Roberts $9,200 vs Jim Miller $7,000
Roosevelt Roberts
Age: 26
Height: 6’2
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Cortez Martial Arts
From: California
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 59
Last Fought: 2 Weeks
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -240
Roosevelt Roberts is making a quick return after a finish victory over Brok Weaver. Roberts is the young gun aiming to take out the aging legend. The fighter in his cross hairs is Jim Miller. I felt Roberts showed some good improvements his last fight. He seemed to fight with more bad intentions. On the feet, he has good, physical gifts, but really isn’t the greatest striker. Roberts is solid when he can go forward. He will work behind his jab & one-two. Roberts will throw the straight down the middle as a lead a lot as well. Roberts has fast hands when fighters stand in front of him & will put together some nice, straight punching combos. Roberts will mix knees into his combinations which are dangerous. Roberts is good at switching stances and looks ambidextrous. He was sitting down & throwing his straights with more power his last fight hurting Weaver a couple times. He doesn’t throw many kicks at all, which I don’t get. With his frame he should be very good at kicking. Roberts did throw one low kick & body kick vs Yakovlev which is more than he usually does. If he can start implementing front & round kicks he will be much better at controlling distance. Roberts gets backed up very easily. He is flat footed and gets too involved in trying to counter moving backwards. He will look to touch opponents with soft punches as they come forward & then time a knee up the middle or a harder shot to put them down. The issue with that is Roberts isn’t a power puncher, and fighters can either slip or eat his shots and push him back. When he gets backed up to the cage, he will be stationary, and look to slip & rip. He stands tall, is susceptible to low kicks & body shots, and also uses his height to defend punches to the head. Roberts is a bit of a front runner. When he can go forward and dominate the fight, he will get more confident, but if opponents walk him down the volume wanes. He likes to try to walk fighters into one shot home runs as they come forward but doesn’t put combos together moving backward. Roberts needs to improve his footwork and try to implement some kicks into his game, that will make him much more dangerous. Roberts just has 3 TKO’s in his career.
Roosevelt Roberts is developing as a grappler. He does look to mix it up & the most dangerous part of his game is probably his guillotine. Roberts doesn’t shoot much in space. He likes to shoot when he can get fighters against the cage. Roberts has a nice single leg, which is essentially the only takedown setup he uses. I have seen him explode into some double legs when he had his back against the fence but that’s few and far between. In top position, Roberts is really not very dangerous. He is a good rider and that’s what he looks to do mainly; Stay on top, float, improve position and win the fight. He won’t look too hard for submissions or throw hard ground & pound. Roberts will sometimes threaten a sub to get some ground & pound in, or rain down some shots if he can get to a dominant position. He does have a good mount, and once he gets there has good control even if he isn’t doing much damage. He takes the back very well. He only has two career submissions from top position which were rear naked chokes. Roberts doesn’t look very strong for the division. He lacks physicality in the tie-ups and can be controlled against the cage and taken down in the clinch. Roberts also struggles against fighters who can setup takedowns with strikes. Vinc Pichel once he realized that was able to dominate him with the grappling. Roberts’ takedown defense especially against chain wresting is poor. What he does have is that dangerous guillotine. He will snatch that up when fighters come in to take him down and finish the fight or force them to go to their backs. He was able to threaten Yakovlev with it in round three of his last match, forced him to his back, and won the decisive round and fight 29-28 by riding him out. Roberts is a tough, scrappy guy and will be in there for three rounds. He can break a bit in fights but seems to always at least stay dangerous. Off his back, he is not very good though. He will lay flat & not offer much. He can be controlled & dominated. Roberts did threaten an armbar in his guard last fight, and is improving a big off his back, but still showed a bad get-up game. Roberts has 5 career subs. His cardio is a bit questionable, but not bad.
Jim Miller
Age: 36
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Miller Brothers MMA
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 20-13-1
Fight Matrix: 39
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +200
Jim Miller is returning after a decision loss to Scott Holtzman in February. Miller fought hard in that match & it was fight of the night. Miller is a 2-1 underdog entering this fight & once again being counted out against the up & comer. Miller is at his best when he can go forward. He will get his inside, outside leg kicks going. His nasty right hook & good straight or overhand left. Miller will explode in with straight punches to the body then go up to the head. He will use the blitz to the body attack to setup doubles later in the fight. In his match vs Guida, Miller showed the ability to strike moving backwards. He got clipped with a big shot that rocked him but decided to plant his feet & spring on a counter which floored Clay Guida. Miller still has pop in his hands & I feel he throws the better, tighter punches in exchanges. Miller will throw some nice body & head kicks. He tends to get taken down a lot off his body kicks. Fighters catch them & drag him to the mat. Miller at this stage has taken some damage & been finished by strikes more than once. He is not as durable as Roosevelt and has to avoid a fire fight. Miller has never been a big threat to finish fighters with strikes with just four career TKO’s. He has been KO/TKO’d twice himself.
Miller is still a fantastic wrestler and has a black belt in BJJ. Miller does a great job of landing reactive double legs and hides them well with his punches. He has a good single leg as well and can use it to drive his opponents to the cage and get a double leg. He is very dogged with his attempts, and willing to take punishment to get the fight to the mat. On top, Miller is awesome, he has great control and scrambling ability. He is very good at flowing on top and is always looking for submissions. He does a great job of finding the back & getting rear naked chokes. He is willing to really go for submissions such as guillotines and back takes, and when he gets them he looks great, but it also gets him in trouble when he doesn’t. When he gets opponents hurt, he will dive on submissions. He rocked Guida, jumped on his neck & got a submission victory in that fight. His last three wins have come via submission after some shots landed on the feet. Miller has been susceptible to takedowns himself, but it has mostly been against large wrestlers, such as Benson Henderson, Francisco Trinaldo, Michael Chiesa, Beneil Dariush, and Pat Healy and all were able to grind him out. In this fight, I see Miller being the one getting the takedowns. He has 15 career submissions & has been submitted 3 times himself. Miller slows way down after round one & is really a first round finisher at this point of his career.
I like Roberts here. He is coming off one of the most impressive performances of his career and at this point in their careers I think he is probably better everywhere. Miller is still dangerous on the ground but at 36 years old I think we have seen the best of him and I would say Roberts is the better wrestler of the two, so if he wants to keep this standing I think he will do so. I think he could have success on the ground here as well, but I see him being the faster guy on the feet and winning this fight mainly with his striking.
Miller is one of the few dogs that I think could be a lock for the optimal lineup, if they won. I think Miller is round 1 or bust here and if he does get that early finish then he will be on the nuts lineup at his price. I think he is in play for that very reason. I just don’t like the chances of that happening and I think Roberts is better everywhere, even early. I will get a small amount of Miller ownership this week, but I want to go underweight to the field personally. I also think Roberts could go overlooked so I might look to get leverage on his side and go overweight there. I think Roberts is a solid cash game play as well and I could see him finishing this fight and scoring well in GPPs, so he is my preferred play all-around.
Winner – Roosevelt Roberts via Unanimous Decision
Belal Muhammad $8,900 vs Lyman Good $7,300
Belal Muhammad
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 7-3
Fight Matrix: 28
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -130
Belal Muhammad is a very dedicated fighter who will definitely be ready to go & in fantastic shape. He is a forward pressure fighter on the feet with good distance control. Muhammad is a technically sound, well-rounded fighter. He has very crisp boxing. He has a great lead hand, nice jabs & left hooks. He will throw a jab, left hook combination. He has a solid one-two & will throw a jab, overhand right or an overhand right lead. He is good at slipping the jab & throwing an overhand right. He will throw one-twos to the body to a right hook to the head. His last fight he was shooting the straight to the body & coming over the top with left hooks to the head. In the pocket, he is very good. He can slip & return and picks his shots well. He has nice, cheeky uppercuts in close range. He will use his jab to setup his right hand and right hook and will throw 8-10 punch combinations keeping super heavy pressure & volume on opponents. He does a great job of sliding out of the way of shots & countering with jabs & straight-right hands. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks. He will throw the occasional round kick to the body & front kicks to the head. He is not much of a kicker but is predominately a boxer. He is good at cutting off the cage, and safely getting inside with feints & fakes. He has great cardio & is usually the fighter controlling the center of the cage. He likes to hand fight to create openings for punches. He does hold his hands low & can walk into punches at times. Good is a slick counter puncher so Muhammad has to be defensively sound here. He doesn’t have big power, and only has 4 career TKO’s. He has a strong chin, and fighters will have to put him out cold to stop him. He has good ability to recover, and tie opponents up on the ground when they go for the finish. His cardio allows him to fully recover & start to put the pressure back on quickly. He has been KO’d only one time in his career.
Muhammad is the better grappler in this match. If he can’t get the takedown, he will still push opponents to the cage and grind in the clinch. He has good knees to the body and will exit with spinning backfists & elbows. He does a good job of transitioning from a single to a double, getting his hands locked & dumping opponents. Muhammad is a strong wrestler. He has very good timing on singles & especially double legs. I expect a heavy dose of wrestling in this fight, due to the obvious weakness in Good’s game on the ground. On top, he has solid control & good elbows. He also has good back takes. I highly doubt he will get put on his back here, unless he is dropped. Muhammad finally earned the first submission win of his career via rear naked choke his last fight. He has never been submitted himself.
Lyman Good
Age: 35
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Team Tiger Schulmann
From: New York
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 38
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +110
Lyman Good is a kickboxer with plus boxing skills. Like his other Tiger Schulmann’s teammate Julio Arce, he has a great jab. Good is a forward pressure fighter who uses the jab to back opponents up & force them in the pocket with their backs near the cage. He will throw some one-twos. Good will also land nice overhand & straight-right leads. Good is very good at slipping shots & coming back with the left hook. He will follow the left hook with a straight-right hand or right hook. Good’s straight punches were pistons in his last fight. Good is flat footed when he strikes & needs fighters to trade in the pocket with him to be successful. If fighters throw long punches & move or kick & move, Good doesn’t throw much volume. He will just get hit, reset and try to walk forward into the pocket again. Good will exchange in the pocket with hook & uppercut combinations & has power. He parries punches and counters excellently. Good also likes to grab the single collar clinch & dirty box. When opponents try to grab the Thai plum on him, he will unload with combinations. He will dig to the body with big hooks and come up with big uppercuts. Good was able to knockout Ben Saunders with uppercuts in the clinch. When he fought Zaleski Dos Santos, he became a little timid due to the power. He continued to punch himself after he was hit to try to pump himself up and told his corner he didn’t want to get knocked out. I don’t think Good has that dog in him & will possibly quit if pushed hard. Lyman will throw some occasional round kicks to the body and head, but almost is exclusively a boxer. Good’s defense on the feet isn’t the greatest. He doesn’t move his head at times as he enters inside and is susceptible to leg kicks & body shots. He does have good durability, having never been finished in his career via strikes. Good has 11 career knockouts.
Lyman Good is not a grappler. He is someone who wants to use their takedown defense & get-ups to keep it standing unless he’s getting beat up. Good does have decent singles & double leg takedowns himself. In top position, Good likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. He gets the hooks in & has good control. Good is very strong with his defensive wrestling. He has very good anti-clinch attacks. He has good balance, but opponents are able to push him to the cage & try to chain wrestle. Demian Maia was able to take him down within 30 seconds of the first round. Good does have solid get-ups. He is good at using butterfly hooks & stuffing the head to try to create space, get his back on the cage & stand up. He was able to stand up this way vs Demian Maia, but in doing so he gave his back, and Maia quickly jumped on it from standing position. He locked in the choke shortly after & closed the show. That was the first time Lyman Good has gotten finished in his career. Good needs to stay standing in this fight in order to be successful. Good has 3 rear naked choke submissions himself. Good needs to have his cardio on point for this fight and he did get Covid so there is no telling how much that could come into play here.
If this was just a striking match, I would probably take Good. I think he will be the one throwing more volume on the feet and he is the more dangerous striker as well. However, Muhammad can keep this close on the feet and his big edge here is on the ground. He is a solid wrestler and Good doesn’t have much to offer off his back. I think Muhammad could get a sub here on the ground, but I think he most likely uses his top control time to land strikes and win the judges over that way.
Good is my preferred play on DK just because of their price tags. This is almost a pickem fight on the betting line, but we have Belal at $8.9k and Good at only $7.3k. When Belal wins he usually scores around ~82 DraftKings points and I could see that happening again here. It is going to be much harder for Belal to pay off his salary with a win than it will be for Good. We also have round 1 KO potential from Good which would lock him into the optimal lineup if it happened. That is too much value for me to pass on and even though I am picking Belal here, I will have more exposure to Good on DK. I won’t X Belal out of my player pool, but I don’t see me getting more than 10-15%.
Winner – Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision
Raquel Pennington $8,800 vs Marion Reneau $7,400
Raquel Pennington
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Altitude MMA
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 7-5
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -160
Rocky Pennington is a tough, gritty girl who is pretty well-rounded. Pennington has a good jab, a good right hook and does a good job of controlling distance and staying just on the outside of opponent’s punches. She has a nasty jab. She will use it to control distance very well. She will add some leg and body kicks into her combinations. She has a nice uppercut in close. Pennington is very durable, and when she gets hit she likes to try to come forward and get it back immediately. She needs to be in close to be effective, as she is not a big kicker and can struggle to find her range from the outside. She will dig to the body with shots as well, and she loves to get in wars. She will definitely take a shot to give her own and try to wear fighters down as the fight goes longer. She was broken a bit in her last two fights and took her first KO/TKO loss of her career vs Amanda Nunes. She took some massive shots in both matches and has a very solid chin. She doesn’t have big power herself, and only has one TKO in her career.
Pennington likes to fight in the clinch and in dirty boxing range. She has good, short punches, elbows and knees. She has good head positioning, and she will trap a wrist and throw punches with the other. She likes to land hard knees to the body, and she wears fighters out in the clinch. Pennington doesn’t have great wrestling, but she is strong and gritty. She has a decent double leg, and she does a good job of timing it in the center. If she doesn’t get the takedown, she will throw shots on the break and I see her trying to do that in this match. On top, Pennington has solid ground & pound, but her go to moves are chokes. She has a nasty guillotine and will attack with chokes such as the bulldog chokes. She is opportunistic and can snatch up the neck and finish a fight very quickly. She has solid takedown defense, and she will attack with the guillotine when fighters shoot in on her. She has 4 career submissions, and been submitted just one time herself.
Marion Reneau
Age: 43
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: MMA Gold Team
From: California
UFC Record: 5-4-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +140
Marion Reneau is a very good athlete, is light on her feet with solid speed. I do feel she has lost a little explosiveness over the years, but not much. She seems to need a little bit to warm up, starts slow, but when she finds her rhythm puts out a good output. She has a nice jab, & good straight punch combinations. She will jab to the body. She has nice leg & front kicks. She will throw a nice lead left hook. She will throw a one-two, left hook combination. She has a very accurate right hook & nice overhand right. She does a good job of feinting & using false starts to land her overhand right. She will throw a front kick to the body to a head kick combination. She has solid head kicks. She will close the distance with hard straight punch combinations. She has power & good speed for the division. She is almost 43 years old & one of these performances I imagine we see her just not have it anymore, but I don’t see sign of that. She is going to be the better striker in this matchup, and I feel her feints, jabs, straights and overhand rights will give Pennington problems. I think if Reneau can land a few shots on Pennington in a row she could get her in desperation mode. Her striking actually looked very good to me against Cat Zingano. She was just a bit too over aggressive when she hurt Zingano & allowed her to take her down. She did get her leg beat up a bit against Zingano I think that was a big factor in the fight. Reneau is extremely tough & will weather a storm and come back to win. She has solid power. She dropped Sarah McMann in her last win with a left hook, straight-right hand combination, and when she hurts opponents she will not let them off the hook and swarms. She has 5 KO/TKO’s. She is very durable & has never been finished.
Marion Reneau is a dangerous submission artist & a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. She holds some impressive submission wins in the UFC over title challengers like Jessica Andrade & Sara McMann. She isn’t a great wrestler & not an active seeker of the takedown doing most of her work on the ground off her back. She doesn’t have the best takedown defense & can be taken down. Reneau did a good job early in her last fight of pushing Cat Zingano against the cage & throwing pretty nasty elbows & knees to the body. She was able to stand up multiple times from bottom & her guard is very good. She has dexterous legs & is able to recover & keep guard very well. She is always looking to bring her guard high & attack with triangles, armbars & elbows. She does a good job of breaking her opponent’s posture by pushing on the head & throwing frame elbows then quickly throwing up the triangle. She does a good job of using the triangle to move into mount & will attack the triangle or armbar. She says she can hold the triangle for 7 minutes & when she gets it locked up she will stay in that position for the rest of the round doing damage with elbows if she can’t finish. She had Sara McMann in the triangle for over 2 minutes. When Reneau sweeps to top position, she is super aggressive. She will attack with heavy ground & pound and loves to take the back and flatten opponents out. She finished her wins against Milana Dudieva & Talita Bernardo with G&P. Reneau is a finisher and has finished her last 4 UFC wins. She has 3 career submissions.
I do think this is a close fight but Reneau is 42 years old now and coming off back to back losses. I just don’t know what Reneau we are getting here so she is too hard for me to trust. If this was Reneau from a couple years ago, then I would take these odds because I think it would be a 50/50 fight. I just think she is on the way out and I am going to take Pennington to win this fight in a 15-minute striking battle.
This fight is likely a fade for me. Reneau is my preferred play because I think she is an underdog that can win, but I don’t see either of these fighters scoring well in a decision and Las Vegas has a -285-line saying that is what we will see. With 20 or less lineups, I am probably X’ing both fighters out of my player pool. With 150 I would still probably fade Rocky, but I would want exposure to Reneau.
Winner – Raquel Pennington via Split Decision
Shane Burgos $8,700 vs Josh Emmett $7,500
Shane Burgos
Age: 29
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Tiger Schulmann’s MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 6-1
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -140
Shane Burgos is a great prospect. He is a slick striker out of Team Tiger Schulman with a lot of confidence. He has a nice jab, and a good overhand right. He keeps his hands low, but he has good head movement and will slip and return with counters. He does a good job of rolling with shots, but he was getting hit clean with straight punches and jabs in his match vs Calvin Kattar. He was also dropped in his last match vs Kurt Holobaugh. He has nasty hooks to the body, and his constant forward pressure wears his opponents down. He has decent inside leg kicks and front kicks to the body but doesn’t throw many kicks. He likes to counter with combinations in the pocket and he does a good job of making opponents pay for throwing punches. He has a very clean lead uppercut. His cardio is fantastic, and he simply doesn’t get tired. He has shown a good chin throughout his career and relies on it with his style. Burgos has big power & can take guys out.
Burgos is not an offensive wrestler and won’t engage in the grappling much. He does a good job of reading level changes and lowering his level to defend them. He does a good job of limp legging out of singles or getting to the cage and circling out. When he hurts opponents, he likes to get on top and find the rear naked choke, but those were early in his career. In his match with Kurt Holobaugh, he was dropped, but immediately threw up an armbar and got a submission when his opponent went to follow up with G&P. He showed great takedown defense in his last match and was able to reverse and get on top. He is a legit black belt & showed a good top game. Burgos has elite cardio & all the confidence in the world.
Josh Emmett
Age: 35
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 6-2
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +120
Josh Emmett is an explosive fighter with big knockout power. He is fairly light on his feet & his movement isn’t bad. He can slip & rip in the pocket fairly well. He doesn’t use a lot of setups & his striking revolves mainly on his overhand & straight-right. He uses a lot of big movements to close the distance. He will throw a one-two both to the body & head to an overhand right. He will throw a right hook to the body to an overhand right to the head. He will throw occasional leg & body kicks. He will throw switch kicks & rear leg round kicks to the head. He likes to throw flying knees & jumping kicks. He is fast himself & if fighters stay inside with him, he can close the distance quickly with powerful combinations. He is better when opponents walk him down & he can move & explode into shots. He landed a brutal left hook knockout against Ricardo Lamas, dropped Jeremy Stephens with a right hook, and deaded Michael Johnson with one punch. If opponents stay in the danger zone with him, he can put them out. He doesn’t have the fastest feet, and when he goes first he can be very obvious. He can struggle to change up his game & deal with movement. Emmett has 6 KO/TKO’s and has only been finished once.
Josh Emmett is a very physically strong guy. He is a decent wrestler, although we have seen little of it in the UFC. He showed he can get double leg takedowns vs Scott Holtzman but could not hold position very well and even got swept a couple of times. He is going to have to have his takedown defense on point this match. This is really one of the first active wrestlers he’s fought in the UFC. He is solid off his back, attacking and getting back up, but we haven’t seen much. I am sure he has that alpha male guillotine. He has good cardio and pushes a pace at the end of the fight. He isn’t a big submission fighter & I haven’t seen much of him on top. He has two career submissions.
I think Burgos is the cleaner striker and should be the guy landing more volume here. He does have a hands down style though and Emmett throws big power. I think Emmett is live for an upset KO here but if he doesn’t get it I see Burgos getting his hand raised. I think he could get a finish of his own but the mostly likely outcome here IMO is that he gets a win on the judges’ scorecards.
This is going to be one of my favorite fights to target for DraftKings. I want to be overweight on both sides because I think the winner scores well. If Burgos wins, I think he picks Emmett apart on the feet and lands enough volume to get over 10x and is live for a KO and 100+ points. If Emmett wins, I think it is a KO and that would score well no matter what round it comes in. At his price tag, he is one of the few underdogs that has a good chance of being on the optimal lineup, if they win. Burgos is my preferred play though, so I will get more exposure to him and I think this is a GPP only fight because of his low floor.
Winner – Shane Burgos via Unanimous Decision
Curtis Blaydes $9,400 vs Alexander Volkov $6,800
Curtis Blaydes
Age: 29
Height: 6’4
Weight: 255
Reach: 80”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 8-2-1
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -400
Curtis Blaydes is a big wrestler who trains out of team Elevation. He is improving his striking, and he has much better footwork and feints than he had at the start of his UFC Career. He will throw a lot of jabs and one-twos. He is quick for a heavyweight and will throw some nice body & head kicks. He has a nice left hook, right hook combination. He has a strong overhand right. When he backs opponents to the cage, he will explode with quick punch flurries. He can sometimes retract his punches a little slow and can get countered and clipped. He has a very good chin. He was never hurt badly and took a ton of shots against Ngannou in the first fight, and then survived a knockdown in round 1 against Mark Hunt. He recovers extremely quickly. His right hand is powerful, and if he can land one clean on the chin he can knock fighters’ unconscious. He landed a nasty overhand his last fight that knocked out JDS. His speed, footwork, head movement and cardio will be hard for HWs to deal with standing up, and that’s with them knowing Blaydes is always trying to take them down also. Blaydes has 10 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes twice in his career both to Ngannou.
Curtis Blaydes is one of the best HW wrestlers I have ever seen. He is one of the few HWs who is athletic enough to shoot takedowns, and he does an excellent job of waiting until fighters are just a little off balance or a little out of position and blasting an easy double leg. He is much better at closing the distance safely, and timing when to shoot them since the first time him and Francis fought, and I don’t see him getting hit coming in nearly as much anymore. He likes to grind in the clinch as well. He will get his opponent to the cage and work short shots while looking to find a takedown. On top, he is vicious. When he can get to dominant positions, he is extremely heavy and has some of the best G&P in the sport. He will rain down powerful elbows. He likes to control from half guard. He has no problem controlling on top & just winning the round. He isn’t a submission threat with 0 in his career & has never been submitted. Blaydes has tremendous cardio.
Alexander Volkov
Age: 31
Height: 6’7
Weight: 240
Reach: 80”
Gym: Strela Team
From: Russia
UFC Record: 5-1
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +325
Alexander Volkov is a big, imposing fighter standing 6’7. He is a very solid striker, and pretty athletic for someone his size. He likes to walk down his opponents and keep them at the end of his strikes. Volkov has a great jab, and it’s stiff and powerful really busting his opponents up. He likes to close the distance with a one-two, and he has decent hooks and uppercuts in the pocket. His defense in the pocket is not great, and he is there to be hit when he closes the distance with punches. Sometimes fighters can come up short because of his length, but I think Blaydes having an 80” reach could potentially cause him trouble. The best part of Volkov’s striking game is most definitely his kicks. He has hard, inside leg kicks and a great front kick to the body. He will throw the front kick to the body with both legs, and he will occasionally bring the front kick with the left leg to the head. Volkov has nice step-in knees, and he can be a real killer on the feet when he finds his range. He has been hurt with overhands before by Timothy Johnson in the UFC and got stupidly getting knocked out horribly in his fight with Lewis. He has only been KO/TKO’d two times in his career, but that last KO was very bad.
Volkov is not the greatest grappler, but he has steadily improved it, and was able to deny the majority of the takedown attempts of Fabricio Werdum in his last match and was able to survive on the floor with him for a round. Volkov has good takedown defense in space, but if his opponents can push him against the cage, they have a better chance of finishing. Volkov was taken down pretty easily with single legs. Werdum was also able to take Volkov’s back. He does a good job of getting a wide stance and not letting opponents lock their hands together, and eventually circling off the cage. If he gets taken down, he has a good guard and his long legs make it hard to pass. Werdum was unable to pass his guard or do any damage at all on top. Volkov doesn’t have submissions off his back and doesn’t have many overall with just 3 in his career. He doesn’t have a good get-up game, and if he gets taken down he usually will not get-up. On top, he has good ground & pound and knocked Werdum out cold. He should have momentum and confidence coming into this bout.
Volkov is likely going to need a knockout to win this fight. He is the more technical striker of the two, but I don’t see him being able to keep this fight on the feet long enough to win 3 rounds. Blaydes lands 6.63 takedowns per 15-minutes and that is exactly what he is going to look to do here again. He is a beast with takedowns and he lands heavy ground and pound once he is in top control. I think he could win this fight on the scorecards if it goes that long, but I see him getting a knockout of his own here. It most likely comes from ground and pound, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him get the KO on the feet either, he just should be looking for takedowns in this match because that is his big edge.
Blaydes is the best play on the card and the fighter I will be the heaviest on. With 5-rounds to work with, I have a hard time seeing Blaydes not score over 100 in a win here and he has the highest ceiling on the card. He will be the most owned fighter on the card as well so if you want to go all-in I am not against it. Volkov is in play as well because if he gets a KO upset then he is on the optimal lineup. I just don’t want to invest much in that happening, but I will be close to all-in on this fight, so I can see me being around 80/20 in GPPs. Vegas gives Volkov a 22% chance of winning here so I think that is a good max % of lineups to throw him in.
Winner – Curtis Blaydes via 1st round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
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