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NFL Fantasy Football Theory: ZeroWR; A Case Against ZeroRB.

What’s up boys, it’s @LowOwnedWR here to rant about a fantasy football draft conundrum that we will hopefully have to face this year…ZeroRB vs ZeroWR. Let us just jump right into it.

What Is ZeroRB and ZeroWR?

If you have played fantasy football chances are you heard about ZeroRB, which is the act of not using heavy draft capital on RBs, example being, in your first 4 picks you go; DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, that is ZeroRB. ZeroWR is the same concept but with WRs, but here is an example anyways, in your first 4 picks you go; Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara, Lamar Jackson, George Kittle, that is ZeroWR. 

Why ZeroRB Is Not Viable. 

Certain analysts will tell you that ZeroRB is a viable strategy as you can find filler RBs with upside (most of the time baring injury) later in the draft and possibly get a scoop off the waiver wire and then load your roster up with STUD WR’s. I am here to tell you that that is one of the worst things you could do to your roster. To show why, let us take a look at the Top 10 in fantasy points at WR and RB in 2019.

These Sheets Are From @FriscoJosh airyards.com

For starters here, you will notice that most of the Top 10 RB’s were taken in the first 3 rounds. With the WR’s; basically everyone outside of Julio Jones, Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins could’ve been taken just in or outside the 3rd round. Well how about draft capital aside, let’s just talk pure fantasy production. The average fantasy points of the Top 10 WR’s was 272.11 fantasy points, meanwhile the average fantasy points of the RB’s was 303.04. RB’s outscored them by just over 10%. Let us take a look at 2018 as well.

Average Fantasy Points of Top 10 WR’s in 2018: 302.81

Average Fantasy Points of Top 10 RB’s in 2018: 307.26

Six WR’s scored over 300 PPR points in 2018 compared to only one in 2019 and the WR’s still could not manage to outscore the RB’s (whose 6-10 averaged only 254.84 fantasy points while the 6-10 WR’s averaged 284.44 fantasy points) that alone should make you never select a WR in the first 2 round of a draft, as the Bell Cow RB’s have a ceiling that the top WR’s just do not have. To add to that, in 2018 the #1 WR only outscored the #10 WR by 74.3 fantasy points, meanwhile, the #1 RB outscored the #5 RB by 52.9 fantasy points (while #5 also had over 320 fantasy points) and outscored the #10 RB by 151.8 fantasy points.

How Do I Use ZeroWR?

To be able to fully use and appreciate ZeroWR, you have to understand what a WR is.

 

WR is the most high variance position in fantasy football (maybe in all of fantasy sports). Julio Jones is capable of getting 13 targets and posting a 4/34/0 stat line against the worst secondary in the NFL. Point being, there are many more paths to a WR busting on a week to week basis than there is for RBs. A target does have a higher chance of going for more fantasy points than carry does, but do consider that a STUD RB can see 33 totals opportunities a game (Targets+Carries) while a STUD WR is never seeing over 20 opportunities a game. This is not to even mention the scoring system.

If you somehow do not follow Scott, you should do that now.

As you can see here, a target does in fact have more opportunity than a carry does, but a targets value decreases from PPR to Half-PPR to Standard, while carries never move in value. Now take into consideration that your STUD RB is going to be getting not only more opportunity overall than a STUD WR, but also their targets have a way better chance of being caught than let’s say DeAndre Hopkins’s who has an aDOT (Average Depth of Target) of 10.5 yards down the field compared to Christian McCaffrey who has an aDOT of only 0.7 yards down the field. This holds up to be true as their RACR’s highly vary.

Christian McCaffrey boasts a 10.58 RACR (meaning he had almost 11x more actual receiving yards than air yards) while DeAndre Hopkins only posted a 0.74 RACR (meaning his actual receiving yards were only 74% of his air yards). So basically, the shorter the target, the more likely the catch. While RB’s do not get 40 yard bombs thrown to them down the field usually, they have a consistent floor baked in with their carries and short targets, while having a way higher ceiling than WR‘s anyways. See 2019 RB#1 Christian McCaffrey’s 469.2 fantasy points and 2019 WR#1 Michael Thomas’s 374.6 fantasy points. Not to mention that Micheal Thomas broke the record for most receptions in a season in 2019, so that is about as peak WR#1 as it gets. For context, the best WR season of all time is only 55.8 PPR points better than 2019 Aaron Jones’s season. If that is not enough for you to adopt ZeroWR (and start fading expensive chalk WR’s in DFS but that is a story for a different day) then I do not know what to tell you, enjoy drafting Mike Evans over Nick Chubb, could not be me.

 

That’s Enough Lecturing, Give Us Some WRs To Target!

  • ADP (Average Draft Position) Taken From 12 Team Mock Drafts

Curtis Samuel (ADP 98.4)

Samuel actually had more air yards than DJ Moore did but posted about 50% less actual receiving yards than Moore, if he can keep that volume up he should be pushing 1000 receiving yards no problems. The departure of Greg Olsen leaves 16% of the teams air yards and 15% of the teams targets up for grabs, so Samuel on top of the increase in efficiency he should see, he should also be getting more volume.

DeVante Parker (ADP 81.3)

Through the last 6 weeks of 2019, DeVante Parker had more targets than the rest of the Dolphin’s WR’s combined, while also hogging up over 35% of the teams air yards. The man got his contract and now has Tua as his QB, things are looking up for the Dolphins offense, especially DeVante Parker. I would happily take this man in the late 3rd, early 4th round (depending on what RBs remain on the board) but the later you take him the better his value will be.

Kenny Stills (ADP Undrafted)

DeAndre Hopkins departure leaves 34% of the teams air yards and 30% of the teams targets up for grabs. While most will flock to injury prone Will Fuller in the 6th round, you can get someone on the same team with arguably better upside almost whole rounds later. Let’s say he receives just half of the volume Hopkins left, he would be sitting with 25% of the teams air yards and 28% of the teams targets, that type of volume is an absolute steal after Round 7-8 let alone Round 14, not to mention DeShaun Watson is an excellent QB and should keep these guys fantasy relevant week to week.

What Now?

With the positional scarcity of RBs in the fantasy football world these days, countering your draft rivals will land you on a plethora of solid RBs getting goal line work and plenty of short passes in the early going of a draft. You can always fill in volatility later, especially in PPR leagues. And, if you want more discussion when it comes to finding those low-owned pearls, we need to talk more in the NFL room inside the DFS Army. I’m always in there chatting with new and intermediate players helping them grow their DFS games. If you use code THEORY, you even get 20% off each month you remain a member. But, you might want to jump in quickly……I’m hearing our prices are going up soon. You won’t get this price point if you wait until August. Hope to see you inside!!