Welcome everyone to the NASCAR Cup Series DFS Preview. For this edition, we will take a look at the both upcoming NASCAR Cup Series races at Darlington Raceway. This article is brought to you by DFSArmy.com and written by Ryan Larkin. Become a VIP member!! Sign up and use code LARKIN to save 20%!! You can catch up with Ryan on twitter or in the DFSA VIP slack @Larkin8
NASCAR IS BACK!!!
The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season gets back underway this Sunday from Darlington Raceway. Due to COVID-19 NASCAR is having to implement numerous changes for this and every race for the foreseeable future. For starters, there will be no practice or qualifying for the races. The teams will show up and the first laps on the track will be in the actual race. Due to the lack of qualifying the starting lineup for the first race will be set by the current 2020 Owner’s points with a random draw. The starting lineup procedure for race two will be a field inversion from the first race. More on this later in the article. The series is also running multiple races at the same track back to back. We will get two Darlington races followed by two Charlotte races. Another side effect is we will see shorter races. For instance, Darlington is normally a 500-mile race. The first race on Sunday will be 400 miles, while the second race on Wednesday will be 311 miles.
Seven races in eleven days!!
Sun, May 17 Darlington Cup 400 mi FOX 3:30 PM
Tue, May 19 Darlington XFINITY 200 mi FS1 8:00 PM
Wed, May 20 Darlington Cup 311 mi FS1 7:30 PM
Sun, May 24 Charlotte Cup 600 mi FOX 6:00 PM
Mon, May 25 Charlotte XFINITY 300 mi FS1 7:30 PM
Tue, May 26 Charlotte Gander Trucks 200 mi FS1 8:00 PM
Wed, May 27 Charlotte Cup 312 mi FS1 8:00 PM
Darlington Raceway
As for the track itself, Darlington is brutal on tires. Long run speed is essential here. Due to the tire fall off we will see lap times fall off 3+ seconds. Anyone on fresh tires will grab fast laps as a result. Turns one and two are vastly different than three and four with the only similarities being that cars will run right up against the wall. Often the result of running against the wall results in contact. This can be minor and have little effect or be major and greatly hurt a cars performance. 500 miles at Darlington makes for a very long, grueling race. At 400 and 311 miles, we can expect these races to be run a little bit differently. We will have a modified competition caution period at lap 30. The format of this will be covered a little later in the article. We should also expect teams to have tire issues due to lack of rubber being on the track and the rough track surface. This is definitely a driver’s track and using past history will be vital this week.
Quick Race Facts
Dates: May 17th & May 20th
Race 1: 3:30 PM ET
Total Laps: 293
Stages: 90 / 185 / 293 laps
Race 2: Wednesday 3:30 pm ET
Laps: 228 Stages: 60 / 125 / 228 laps
AVG. # of Cautions: 8.5 (Excluding Stage Breaks)
AVG. # of DNF’s: 6
Defending Champion: Erik Jones
Starting Lineup Procedures
Race 1
For the first race the lineup will be determined in part by a random draw for starting positions within groups. The NASCAR is hoping to have starting order for race one by Friday:
- Positions 1-12 will be determined by a random draw from charter teams in those positions in team owner points
- Positions 13-24: Random draw among charter teams in those positions in owner points
- Positions 25-36: Random draw among charter teams in those positions in owner points
- Positions 37-40 will be filled out by open, non-chartered teams in order of owner points
Race 2
The starting lineup for the next Cup Series event, scheduled May 20 at Darlington, will use the finishing order from May 17 as the basis for two inversions:
- Starting positions 1-20: The top 20 finishers from the May 17 event will be inverted for the start of the May 20 race
- Starting positions 21-40: The bottom 20 finishers from the May 17 event will be inverted for the start of the May 20 race; any new entries will be placed at the tail of the field
Competition Caution Procedure
The Cup series will have a modified competition caution in the early portions of each race. Those stoppages will include freezing the field to accommodate longer pit stops, allowing teams to make more extended in-race adjustments that might normally be made during practice.
That modified competition caution procedure includes:
- Freezing the running order at the time of the caution period
- Granting the free pass for the first car one lap down
- No wave-around rule will be in effect for the competition caution
- Pit road opens to the top 20, then the next 20 on the following lap
- Each car will keep its position at the time of the caution, provided it beats the pace car off pit road
- The pit cycle repeats, with the top 20 then next 20 allowed to pit a second time
- Teams that do not beat the pace car off pit road will lose a lap and restart at the tail of the field; teams that pit more than twice or outside of their designated pit window will also restart at the tail of the field.
- The lineup will be reset according to the frozen running order for the restart
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DFS Outlook
Dominators
IN the past we have seen numerous occurrences of a single dominator claiming 75%+ of the laps led. However, with this rules package last year we saw four drivers lead large chunks of the race. With no practice or qualifying to collect data from it will be a complete guessing game on who dominators might be. It will be best to use past Darlington history as well as early 2020 intermediate track speed data to see who could have elite speed. My expectation is that over the course of the race as drivers get to work on their cars that we will see lots of comers and goers and multiple leaders. Since we have shorter races there will not be as many dominator points available so I would recommend playing a 2-3 Dominator strategy.
Mid to Low Tier
It will all be about place differential and finishing upside in this area. This race is fairly straight forward with long green flag runs and drivers focusing on taking care of their equipment. There are usually a couple of drivers who run very well here and above their normal expected finishing position. We can also use track history to find quality plays like Erik Jones and Austin Dillon who have been successful in the past. The DFS Army research station is the best place to get all this information.
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Punts
Punts will struggle here overall. These teams really lack in mechanical grip and struggle to keep pace with the leaders. Due to this, they find themselves several laps down and unable to capitalize on gaining spots late in races. If you are needing to play this area then I would recommend playing the best possible of the group. Suarez and Lajoie posses better equipment or Poole is in a better situation than Houff and Gase. With competition cautions in play as well as shorter stages it is possible that we see certain teams hang closer to the lead lap and capitalize on a couple of extra positions.
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This will conclude this edition of NASCAR Cup Series Preview. If you would like to reach out and talk NASCAR Follow me on twitter @Larkin8 or of course Become a VIP member and join me as well as our other DFS Army NASCAR contributors (Brady Miller, Taco, and NillyJay) in the NASCAR coaching channels.