Hello again Army, and welcome to another midweek Calming the Chaos! This time we’re, well…we’re back at Charlotte again, but this time we’ll only see about half of the race that we saw on Sunday, so things will be a little different. We need to talk about how to take advantage of that, so let’s get to it!
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
May 24, 2020, Concord, NC, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) wins the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Gerry Broome/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Network
Charlotte Motor Speedway
It’s Charlotte…again. You know the drill by now!
Those DraftKings salaries though…
Because we had the starting positions set before the salaries came out, DraftKings decided to spice things up this time by jacking up the salaries of those starting in the back, and gave a bunch of reductions to those starting up closer than they would be normally. Love it or hate it, it’s the hand we were dealt, so if you aren’t feeling it, you might want to look at one of the other sites (SuperDraft looks pretty good) this time around.
While I do think cash games are viable, I really like the GPP approach here, especially on DraftKings. There are some tough decisions to make, but that just gives us some ways to pivot from the field while still giving ourselves a realistic chance to win.
Still with me? Great! Let’s take a look at what we have to work with.
The Field
Dominators
Our dominators are in an interesting position this time around. On one hand, there are only 208 laps, so traditionally, we wouldn’t be as high on them as we would at other races. However, with how the pricing is this week, a lot of our high-ceiling drivers are pretty expensive, so we can’t just cram them in like we could before. That’s going to put a special premium on the lead laps…provided we can get a lot of them from one or two drivers.
As for who, it’s pretty much a lock that either Byron or Bowman will lead most, if not all of, stage 1. With how the Hendrick cars have looked here, it’s not too much to expect them to also carry top-5 upside, so either one of them are worth a look. I would give the nod to Bowman, seeing how dominant he has looked at these 1.5-mile tracks, but there’s no reason you couldn’t roll out some lineups with Byron instead. I’m not in love with stacking them, but if you want to roll out a handful of lineups like that in a big GPP (i.e. a 150-max), you could try that route.
After that, the main target has to be Truex again, especially since he starts 15th and was priced down from last week. I could easily see a scenario where Byron or Bowman lead the first 50-100 laps, and Truex leads the next 75-150 on his way to a top-3 finish.
After that, I would look at Kyle Busch/Elliott and Keselowski as the most likely to dominate the mid/late race. All four of these (Truex through Keselowski) offer some place differential as well, so if you’re looking for a way to come off of the place differential chalk, you could consider grabbing a couple of these drivers. See the graphic below:
Basically, we’re looking at what a top-5 finish would look like for all of these drivers, and comparing the big place differential of Johnson (and Bowyer/Hamlin) vs the dominator upside of these four. In other words, if we do get a couple of these guys to stay out front for a while, they could easily out-score and out-value the high dollar place differential plays, which would make the winning lineup look a lot different than expected.
Remember, this is showing that an equal finish makes it questionable that the place differential drivers are even in the winning lineup. This isn’t considering the fact that they may not finish all that well, say, a mediocre top-15 (or even top-20) finish or so. That would make it very easy for a two dominator lineup to take home all the cash, provided they come through. Anyway, it’s something to consider, and would be a great way to be different from the field.
Also, if you were wondering how one might use the Lineup Projector, this is one of the ways I like to use it!
Finally, if you’re looking for another alternative, Logano and Kurt are viable options, as they won’t see much ownership but could still lead 50+ laps and snag a top-3 finish. I would keep them for GPP only.
Studs / value studs
Speaking of Johnson, Bowyer, and Hamlin…as we’ve already touched on, they’re starting at the back of the field, but also have a pretty good price bump to go with it. Hamlin is probably the most reasonable, as his price isn’t too much higher than what we sometimes see, and he has the most dominator upside of the group. Dollar for dollar, I do like Hamlin the best of the group, but obviously they’re all three worth having exposure to for their potentially high ceiling.
FOR GPP PURPOSES, the idea of fading/pivoting away from Johnson/Bowyer is not a bad one, as they’ll definitely be popular. A mediocre finish (say, 15th to 20th or so) won’t put them in the winning lineup, and that’ll tank a lot of lineups in the process. It’s something to consider!
After that, I LOVE Blaney once again. He’s still too cheap (for some reason, cheaper than he was last week), he starts fairly deep (18th), and he showed that he has top-5 upside here. Add in the fact that he could also sneak up front and lead a decent chunk of laps, and we have ourselves a very nice option. Probably my favorite play on the entire slate.
For the value studs, we’ll look at Wallace starting 38th, then Newman (27th), Kenseth (26th), and Stenhouse (24th). Wallace is cheap enough (compared to some of the options higher up) that he’ll be popular, so the other three make good pivots…and I like them in the order listed here. Newman especially, as he easily has the highest finishing position upside of this group (a top-10 is not out of the question here).
A couple of deep GPP moves would be Jones or Reddick, as they will likely go overlooked but still carry some upside to them. Jones could score a top-5, while Reddick has shown realistic top-10 upside. I especially like them on FanDuel, but there are scenarios that could play out to put one of them in the winning lineup on DraftKings (I would not stack them).
For FanDuel pivots, consider Austin, Buescher, and Custer. They shouldn’t see much, if any, ownership, but could snag a surprise top-10 finish. I don’t hate sprinkling them around on DraftKings either, but FanDuel is where they could really shine.
Value / punts
Once again, there’s not a ton of great options down here. Ty Dillon isn’t a bad all-around choice, and starting 26th gives him a decent cushion. A top-25 or so finish is obtainable, while a top-20 isn’t impossible. Preece has more upside, as I could see a top-15 out of him, but his floor might be slightly lower, making him a good GPP pivot.
If you need to go lower than that, you could sprinkle around Poole/Gase/Hill, but outside of that, I don’t really like any of the punts. Suarez looks like a trap to me, as he’s priced up over the others and I don’t really see him moving up much at all.
Closing thoughts
This race might go down as something very unique, or perhaps a trend-starter if we continue to have starting positions before the sites release the driver pools. In any event, there are a few ways to go this week; focus heavily on the place differential plays, focus heavily on the lead laps, or figure out how to blend the two together. As for the field, I expect most people to focus on trying to cram in as much place differential as possible, so going with one of the other two options might be the way to take it all home this time. This is an excellent opportunity to really dig in and use the looking glass to come up with some unique, but realistic, race theory. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!