Happy Memorial Day Weekend everyone, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We head to Charlotte for the Coca-Cola 600, a 400-lap behemoth that is the longest race of the year. With that comes some healthy contests from the usual sites, as well as SuperDraft finally entering the fray with some of their own. Lots of way for us to take home some extra money, so let’s get to it!
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
May 24, 2020, Concord, NC, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) during the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Gerry Broome/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Network
Charlotte Motor Speedway
Feels like it’s been forever, but we’re finally back at it with a more “standard” 1.5-mile race track. The biggest difference we’ll see here is the increased emphasis on dominators, as we’ll have considerably more laps here (400) than we see at most other races, especially the other 1.5-mile ones. More on that later, but it’s important to remember as you’re building, so keep that in mind!
Finally some “normal” qualifying, but still no practice
We see the return of actual qualifying this week, but we’re still without practice. There won’t be many (if any) adjustments made prior to the race, so I don’t expect teams to go into qualifying with wildly different setups than what they will race with (they won’t have the “nobody loses their spot” competition cautions that we saw at Darlington as a buffer).
The biggest news is that DiBenedetto and Almirola both found a wall and will be starting towards the rear. DiBenedetto will start 33rd and will drop to the rear during pace laps since they are going to a backup car, where Almirola will start 40th with a repaired primary car (they are not going to use their backup).
Weekend approach
Seeing as this is a “standard” type of track, it’s business as usual as far as contest selection goes, even without practice. Cash games are a go (especially ladders considering how many laps there are), as are all forms of GPP. This is a good time to remind everyone of the 80/20 rule for bankroll building. Try not to forget the basics!
The Field
Dominators
Like I mentioned earlier, dominators will be very important here, especially on DraftKings (though they are important on the other sites as well). The race calc likes 2 to 3 of them on DraftKings, with 1 to 2 on FanDuel. I second that, but I will also add that we’ve seen several solo dominator performances here over the years, so I would definitely recommend having a few lineups built like that as well (that would be a great single entry GPP approach).
Anyway, we have several drivers that should be high on everybody’s radar for those lead laps, so let’s get into that now!
Without getting into too much detail (we are short on time for this race), the main targets here are Truex and Kyle Busch. Both of them are exceptional here, and are very likely to sit up front and lead 100+ laps each (they’re also the two primary candidates for solo dominator lineups, if you want to build any of those). Also, you can mix and match these two with whoever you’d like (there are enough lead laps that pretty much anybody will correlate with anybody else). As a rule of thumb, though, remember that Truex tends to shine as the race goes on, so pairing him with a front-runner could be to your advantage. We’ll talk about them now.
Kurt won the pole, and he’ll line up next to Johnson, with Elliott and Kenseth behind them. I don’t see them getting very crazy to kick off this thing, so I mostly expect to see Kurt hold the lead for a while and soak up a fair amount of stage 1. If he can stay clean, I don’t see him having much trouble finishing in the top-10, making him a good choice for a primary dominator. Should he falter in the beginning, Johnson or Elliott would take his place and lead a good part of stage 1, so they would be good pivots. I don’t see Kenseth being in the picture here to battle for lead laps.
After that, your best best is to get creative to help to differentiate from the field. Consider sprinkling in guys like Hamlin, Bowman, Keselowski, and Logano as they are capable of leading 50-100+ laps and finishing in the top-10. Consider some team stacks (i.e. any two of Johnson/Elliott/Bowman for a Hendrick stack, Keselowski and Logano for a Penske stack, Kurt with some other Chevy cars (the first three), etc) as well.
Studs / value studs
I didn’t list Harvick in the previous section, not because he can’t dominate (he certainly can), but starting 22nd means he doesn’t have to. He’s a top play regardless. Right behind him (or perhaps, in front) is Almirola, who had a little “oops” during his qualifying run and will start 40th. He’s got an easy path to a top-15 or top-10 finish, and that will put him in the winning lineup on any site. He’ll be chalk, so you can default to him in cash, but for GPP I would consider going all in or all out, and not try to match the field (especially in a 20-max tournament!).
Blaney looks pretty good too, starting 26th, and shouldn’t have a whole lot of trouble finding a top-15 or so. He’s also a bit underpriced, so take advantage! I would be sure to take Almirola first (especially in cash), but I have no problem rolling out Blaney wherever salary permits. For GPP, you could consider stacking them or even using Blaney as a direct pivot if you’re looking for places to make some moves.
After that we have a few more interesting GPP pivots. Jones and Byron shouldn’t get a whole lot of attention, but they are capable of a top-5 finish here, and could also steal a few lead laps here and there. I always like to sprinkle in Jones when he starts in this “dead zone” area, because his ownership is just never there. We won’t need either one for cash, but do get some exposure to them in GPP.
For the value studs, DiBenedetto stands out, as he’ll start 33rd. While it’s true he will drop to the rear and be in a backup car, I’m not very concerned, as he’s got a decent team and their backup car shouldn’t be too far behind their primary (remember, he’s not in the #32 anymore).
Newman is simply too cheap again this week, and even though his starting position isn’t as sexy as Burrito’s is, I see no reason why he can’t be up there with a top-15 finish, possibly battling for a top-15.
An interesting option here is going to be Chastain, as he’ll be in a car prepared by CGR with a Hendrick engine. That’s a lot of car for somebody so cheap, and we know he can drive. Starting 21st gives him a nice safety net to boot.
Buescher should be in the conversation too, as since this is a 1.5-mile track, we know he’s capable of a top-15 finish here. He’s nice and cheap too, so definitely have exposure to him. Custer, Preece, and Bell all make good pivots to any of the value studs, as they’ve all shown top-15 upside.
Value / punts
There’s not much to choose from down here, but McDowell is an option if you need to go this low. For an absolute stars & scrubs lineup, you could try your hand with Gase or Poole, but remember that if you’re doing that, you need as many high-ceiling drivers as possible to go with them. Those are the kind of lineups where you’re shooting for the moon, not just the sky! I would prefer to pay up a little (Newman, Custer, Preece, etc), but if you’re trying to win the 150-max, they’re options.
Closing thoughts
Be sure to check out SuperDraft for their new NASCAR contests, and don’t forget that Monkey Knife Fight is still doing theirs. Aside from that, it’s mostly business as usual this week, outside of the whole no practice thing. Play within your means, mind the pivots in GPP, and enjoy your Memorial Day Weekend. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!