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NASCAR Calming the Chaos 5/17/20 – Darlington

Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos!  It feels like it’s been forever, but here we are, finally getting the show back on the road.  We’ll kick off the next chapter of the 2020 season at Darlington, which should be a great track to get back into the swing of things.  Let’s get to it!

As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet.  If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.

Darlington Raceway

Ah, The Lady in Black, a track that is as unique as it is iconic.  This 1.366-mile track is unlike any other that we see all season, though since it is our first race back, I get the feeling we’ll see it play out a bit more safely than usual, something more along the lines of what we see at the standard 1.5-mile tracks.  Well, that is if our buddy Stenhouse can keep himself in check!

No practice?  No problem!  Maybe…

As you are probably aware, we’re skipping the traditional qualifying and practice sessions, but don’t confuse that with teams going in blindly (they still have simulators, data from previous years, past race experience, etc).

Weekend approach

The lack of practice does put a little damper on the cash games, but I think there will be enough safe options to go that route if you want to.  If not, load up on some GPP instead!  Both MME and SE are in play here, and if you’re playing both cash and GPP, be sure to find some ways to hedge your lineups/driver pools (also remember the 80/20 rule).

If you are playing cash games, be sure to roll out a ladder or two here, as there are plenty of lead laps to go around to make your dominators really shine.  It’s easy to forget about them, especially since it’s been a couple of months since we last went green, but tracks like these are perfect for them.  Don’t cap yourself at a 1.8x to 2x return!

 

The Field

Dominators

Darlington is a track that is historically pretty nice for the pole-sitter, especially one that has dominated here before (we’ll give Byron a pass for last year’s efforts).  Keselowski fits that description this week, as he lucked into drawing the pole and has plenty of lead laps under his belt here.  I would just plug him in for any cash game lineups you may be running, but for GPP, you can get a little creative here.

Now, there’s nothing wrong with using Keselowski in GPP, and I wouldn’t play GPP without him in your pool (unless you’re YOLOing a SE lineup and want to fade some chalk), but you don’t need me to tell you that.  Rather, let’s go over some variations/pivots we can make.

The first thought is to take some lineups with Bowman as a dominator (in the event that Keselowski has a bad start and gives up the early lead), but this track has been pretty awful for Bowman.  Technically he has progressed a little every race, but in four tries he has yet to finish better than 18th or put up a driver rating over 79.4 (granted, only two of those starts were in the #88, but there wasn’t a significant improvement in it).  I think it’s entirely possible he could lead a few laps to start, but I don’t have much faith in him truly dominating AND finishing anywhere high enough to pay off (he’s not exactly cheap).  Anyway, I think the move here would be to pivot away from this pivot and focus on the other options instead.

Harvick and Kyle Busch stand out to me as other dominator options (that are starting closer to the front), as both of them have shown mid/late-race dominator potential in the past.  There are enough laps to go around that I could see stacking either of them with Keselowski for two-dominator lineups, and if you really want to be different, you could toss in a few lineups with Harvick and Kyle Busch, as there are ways this could work (one leads early (with a bad Keselowski/Bowman start) while the other leads late, or they both split 2/3 of the lead laps, etc).  Of course, you could just take one of them for solo dominator lineups, as any of these three (not Bowman) have the potential to lead 200+ laps here.

Other mid/late-race options include Logano, Truex Jr, and Hamlin.  I would be more inclined to pair them with Keselowski (giving you early/mid + mid/late race dominators), but if you’re running enough lineups, you could sprinkle in some lineups pairing them with Harvick/Kyle Busch (or used solo) as well.

Studs / value studs

Last year’s winner here, Jones, stands out as a solid option, as does Kurt Busch.  They’re both starting a bit deeper than what they’re capable of finishing, giving them both solid upside.  They both showed dominator upside last year too, leading 79 (Jones) and 94 (Kurt) laps.  Honestly, they’re closer to hybrid status than they are studs this week, but since it’s our first race back, I’ll temper expectations just a bit.  Anyway, both are solid choices in all formats, as they’re both capable of a top-5 finish.

Byron, like Bowman, hasn’t quite figured this track out yet, but I do think he has shown a little bit more promise than his teammate.  Starting 18th, Byron will probably be overlooked in favor of Jones/Kurt, making him a good option as a pivot in GPP – no cash!  Elliott is another option if you want to pay up to be different.

For value studs, the main targets here are Buescher and Reddick, and I would look to them first for general purpose.  For GPP, Bell/Stenhouse/Newman are cheaper options with good upside (though riskier), and Austin Dillon is a “pay up” option that will probably go overlooked.

An interesting option here would be DiBenedetto.  He’s starting up front, and in his recent races, he seems to perform a little better the higher he starts.  While I don’t expect to see him pull in a top-5, I think he’s proven that he’s capable of doing it, so I do think he’s worth having in GPP this week (especially on FanDuel).  He’ll go virtually un-owned, and he did finish 8th here last year, so there’s definitely a path for him being in the winning lineup.  I would probably have more exposure to him on FanDuel though, since he might need a handful of lead/fast laps to pay off on DraftKings (again, he is capable, if unlikely…just look at what he did at Bristol last year), but I do think we can take some shots with him on both sites.

Finally, before we continue, let’s talk about Kenseth.  He’s making his return, and if you look at the fact that it’s Kenseth in the #42 for less than $8,000 on both sites, well, that’s a pretty sweet deal.  I’m sure he’ll have some growing pains, so I don’t think we need to force him in for cash games, but he’s certainly worth a look in GPP, especially on FanDuel where a top-8 or so could put him in the nuts there, but not necessarily on DraftKings (I think he would need a stronger top-5 to pay off there).  His 2018 race wasn’t great, but he’s had his share of top-10s and even a victory here over the years, so this is hardly anything new to him.  With his price you can use him as a pivot to anybody in this section (paying down from Jones/Kurt or up from Buescher/Reddick).

Value / punts

Ty Dillon and John H Nemechek are the strongest options here, so look to them for the general purpose use options down low.  McDowell is also a good option, but I would favor the other two when possible.

For GPP, look Preece and Custer as good alternatives.  An argument could be made for Suarez too since he’s starting so deep and seems to have shown some improvement in the clunker he’s driving now, and if the front of the pack gets a little wild, he could find himself moving up a few extra spots if he can stay clean.  I don’t think we need him for cash by any means, but he could be used in GPP, as he technically has a pretty high ceiling starting 37th.

As for the punts, well…I can’t say I’m too interested.  They’re not quite as bad here as they are at Phoenix, but it’s still not a great place for them.  If you’re throwing darts, look at Hill/Sorenson to fill that void.

Closing thoughts

It’s been a while, but it’s great to be back!  Remember the basics, don’t play outside your means, and mind the pivots in GPP.  Remember that we’ll have a lot of new (or new to NASCAR) players, so if you’re playing cash games, be sure to hammer those head-to-heads as they’ll be a great source of some softer lineups.  We have almost 300 laps here, so don’t forget the importance of a strong dominator pairing here.  Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!