Hello everyone and welcome to my “Trust The Process” article where we will be taking an in-depth look at the Research Station to help find plays on tonight’s 5-game slate! The goal is to help make a solidified process everyone can follow to crush cash games and tournaments alike. You can find me on Twitter @AUFan30 or in Slack throughout most of the day if you have any questions!
Point Guards
The first thing I do when looking for players to build around is sort by And1 rating. The And1 rating is an all-encompassing metric unique to the DFSArmy that factors in several different columns, including aDVP, Ceiling, Floor, USG%, etc. I like to keep track of the Top 5 players from each position. Take note of these guys and see if they stay high on the list of the other metrics we will look at.
Next, we will sort by Floor for cash games. When we do this, we see that Curry and Sexton replace Ja and Jamal. This tells me Ja and Jamal may be more of GPP targets and Curry and Sexton may not be in a great spot for GPP purposes.
For GPP’s we will sort by Ceiling. The Ceiling is the number we can expect these guys to hit 15 – 20% of the time if everything goes right for them. Doing this, we see that Lillard stays high on the list. We also notice the Top 5 doesn’t change much, aside from Ja and Jamal reentering the picture. This tells me Curry and Sexton are more cash options today than GPP, and Trae and Ja are much better for GPP use.
We will then sort by FP/Min. The FP/Min column is very useful in telling us who produces when they are on the court. Doing this shows us our Top 5 really doesn’t change much aside from Steph replacing Murray. Lillard stays extremely high on the list.
The next step is to sort by USG%. If we’re looking for what studs to build around, we want a guy who is heavily involved in his offense. Note that Young and Doncic have been high on every list we’ve looked at so far.
When we have what guys we want to target selected, we then want to look at two columns in particular: Who’s Hot? and Clock Watch. These two columns are very important for GPP plays in particular. Every player goes through a cold stretch as well as hot streaks. When we sort by Ascending on 3g vs 10g, we see Knight and Milton really jump here. Knight has been providing fantasy owners 5.8X over his last 3 games while averaging 34.9 FP’s. This is largely due to Derrick Rose and Bruce Brown’s injuries. We also see Milton here providing 6.2X over the last 3 for fantasy owners. Sexton also popped on our Floor metric and we see him here, making me very interested in him for cash games and GPP’s alike.
We also like to sort by Clock Watch to see what players have been getting more run lately. Delly, Knight, and Milton jump here and that’s largely due to team injuries. Delly is a massive trap tonight.
Finally, for guards, in particular, we look for guys in Pace Up matchups. This leads to more transition opportunities as well as steal opportunities. For cash games, we don’t necessarily worry too much about the Pace, but it is a very good metric for GPP guards. For guards, we sort by Descending under Pace (+/-).
Shooting Guards and Small Forwards
SG’s and SF’s follow the exact same process as the PG’s do.
Power Forwards
For Power Forwards, we will follow the exact same process for these guys, however, we will change one thing. For PF’s, we want a slow-paced matchup. This is due to PF’s getting more steal and block opportunities, as well as rebound opportunities from set offenses. To find these guys, we will go to Pace of Play and sort Pace (+/-) by Ascending order. Again, take note of any PF’s noticed from the other metrics we’ve already looked at.
Centers
Centers follow the exact same process as PF’s.
Vegas
As I promised, I will update the process as needed. Here lately we’ve had some amazing discussion the #nba-talk room and I highly encourage everyone to get in there and check it out. My friend @scintow has been sharing with everyone something he uses with his process, and lately, I’ve been tracking it to see results. Consistent as can be! So I will be replacing the C Val and F Val sections with this, as this has been more productive.
In NBA DFS, we really want to target games that possess a high scoring total. The more possessions a team has gives us more opportunities for our players to score points. Therefore, we will start using the Vegas section of the RS for our research! We will sort by Total +/- Descending to see what teams are projected to score more than their season average tonight.
When we do this, we see MEM, GSW, and SAC really pop up here. Memphis is projected to score 119.8 points today, up from a season average of 112.5. The Total O/U of that game is also 233, which tells us that the MEM/ATL game would be a great one to target. GSW is implied to score 112 today, up from a season average of 106.1. Finally, SAC is projected to score 114.3 tonight, up from an average of 108.7. That game also features a 231 Total O/U and would be a great game to target for GPP’s as well.
Tier List
You will want to make a Tier List of the players you’ve found based on your research. Treat this list as an “in case they’re scratched” list. I would always recommend making the highest priced guy the first on your list, therefore if he is scratched then you have nothing to worry about salary-wise with your edits in case he is scratched just before lock.
Minutes
For cash games, I do make a rule on the RS to include only players who will play over 24 minutes. This is something that needs to be monitored, as the closer we get to lock the RS may not be updated and may require a manual adjustment to a player’s minutes. To add this setting, simply select the down arrow under EDIT Mins under the TODAYS – Projections tab, hover over Number Filters, select Custom Filter.
We will then select “Is greater than or equal to” from the drop-down box and 24 in the input box.
Domination Station Fpts/$ and Ownership %
Once we have our list of guys to target, we want to check out who is popping on the DS. The first section we want to pull up is the Fpts/$. Players hitting value is crucial to taking down any cash contest or tourney and we want to be sure we’re getting the best bang for our buck. We do this by sorting by Fpts/$.
We also want to check out projected ownerships. This is very useful when trying to decide what value to play, or deciding what studs to fade in tournaments. This can also help bring a player to your attention you may not have noticed in the Research Station! The industry is usually very spot on about what players are in good spots, so this ownership tab is very important to watch.
Top Plays for Today!!
I’m on the FanDuel sheets today, so be sure to check those out to find all my player pool for this slate!
Thank you for reading and as mentioned before, be sure to follow my Twitter @AUFan30 or catch me in Slack with any questions you may have! Be sure to be watching the breaking news channel as always to make sure you don’t miss any exciting value plays and be sure your players are good to go!