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Save The Sway Bar: Top plays and pivots for DraftKings and FanDuel at Phoenix

Hello everyone and welcome to the Sway Bar! This season I will be taking over the Sway Bar article and putting a couple of spins on it. I will be focusing largely on the RS and how to manipulate it to find our top plays. This week we go to Phoenix for the FanShield 500. Hope you enjoy it! You can find me in Slack any day of the week, or on Twitter @AUFan30 if you have any questions!

 

Tracks Tab

The first section we will look at is the Tracks tab of the RS. This tab will tell us exactly what stats we are looking for regarding Phoenix International Raceway. If we find Phoenix International Raceway under the “Track Name” section, we find the info we need about the track.

This tab also tells us very important stats regarding previous scores on this track. The next section I will look at is the “Avg Green Flag Run %”. This section shows us if a race is filled with wrecks, or if there is a steady run. The more wrecks there are, the better the cheap punts will be as they can move up easier, hence why we load up on them at tracks like Daytona and Talladega. However, if a race stays green, this helps our mid-tier and stud drivers who have place differential upside or dominator upside. As we see in this section, Phoenix International Raceway ranks as the tenth safest track of all tracks with an 11.20% Avg Green Flag Run rating. This will help our mid-tier and dominators and will hurt our punt and pay down options this week.

Next, we will look at the “Avg Pole Laps Led” section. In this section, we are really focusing on our pole-sitter. This week’s pole-sitter is Chase Elliott. When we look at the Avg Pole Laps Led section, we see that this track is in the middle for pole-sitters in terms of laps led, ranking 13th with an average of only 69.5 laps led for pole-sitters.

The other consideration we have for choosing dominators is fast laps. Therefore, the next section we will look at is the “Avg Pole Fast Laps” section. Here we see that this track ranks 12th for fast laps with an average of 29.5 fast laps.

We also want to take a look at how our Top 10 and our back of the pack guys rate out here. If we look at the “Avg DK FP % Top 10” section, we see that Phoenix ranks 6th with a rating of 3.5%. For FanDuel, we see that Phoenix ranks 8th with a rating of 5.4%. When we look at the “Avg DK FP % 30th+” section, we see that Phoenix ranks 22nd with a rating of 1.5%. For FanDuel, we see that Phoenix ranks 13th with a rating of 3.2%.

Track Types Tab

The track types section is fairly straightforward to read and understand. This section tells us what drivers best tracks are. We already know that Phoenix is a 1-Mile Short/Flat track (see the screenshot in the Tracks Tab section), so that is the section we will focus on here. When we look at this section, we notice that Kyle Busch and Martin Truex absolutely crush these types of tracks. Kyle Busch has an average driver rating of 121.7 on these tracks, good for 12% better than his overall average driver rating. We also see that Truex has an average driver rating of 114.2, good for 7% better than his overall average driver rating. We also see Keselowski really pop here, with an average driver rating of 105.8, good for 10% better than his overall average driver rating.

We can also use this section to see what mid-tier drivers are solid here as well. We will focus primarily on the “Vs Avg” section for them. Here, we notice that Bowyer, Almirola, Johnson, and Newman are noticeably better on these tracks than other ones on the schedule. Obviously Newman isn’t driving this weekend, but Chastain is in his car and this may be a good GPP stat for us to look at. Let’s take note of these guys as we further our research.

One important thing to note with this tab is that it is a historical average. This means it doesn’t consider drivers changing teams or equipment. Therefore, I am not looking into Matt DiBenedetto’s rating here, for example, too much as he is in much better equipment this season.

DKAvgByStart Tab

The next tab I always look at is the “DKAvgByStart” tab on the RS. This is located on the bottom tabs when you open the RS. Doing this shows us 3 sections I love to look at for every race. If we look to the right side of the screen, we see “Averages By 5 Starting Positions” for Studs, Mid-Tier, and Scrubs. These are the sections I believe hide a huge key at pretty much every track we go to.

Taking a look at our “Studs” (drivers who have a 90+ Season Long Driver Rating Average) section, we see that our Studs starting 6 – 10 usually score the highest here, with a 52.3 FP average. This week we get a plethora of guys there, but I want to focus on two here: Almirola and Kyle Busch. We already know Kyle Busch dominates these tracks and now we get some place differential out of him? Sounds great for cash to me! And Almirola will almost certainly come in at very low ownership at his starting spot, but if he can hang around that spot all day, which he is more than capable of doing, he has a shot at being optimal at his price.

Taking a look at our “Mid-Tier” (drivers who have a 50-90 Season Long Driver Rating Average), we see that Mid-Tier guys starting 36 – 40 score the best with an average of 29.2 FP. However, we also notice that is a sample size of 4, so I’m not weighing that heavily here. Instead, I am looking at the 21 – 25 section, where we see an average of 27.6 FP’s scored. In this section, we see drivers like Jimmie Johnson, Chris Buescher, and I will consider Ross Chastain given his equipment.

Finally, let’s take a look at our “Scrubs” (Sub-50 Season Long Driver Rating Average) section. We notice that drivers starting 31 – 35 tend to score best, but they only score an average of 13.8 FP. They also only complete an average of 275 laps, which tells me we may want to look elsewhere this week.

FDAvgByStart

The next tab I always look at is the “FDAvgByStart” tab on the RS. This is located on the bottom tabs when you open the RS. Doing this shows us 3 sections I love to look at for every race. If we look to the right side of the screen, we see “Averages By 5 Starting Positions” for Studs, Mid-Tier, and Scrubs. These are the sections I believe hide a huge key at pretty much every track we go to.

Taking a look at our “Studs” (drivers who have a 90+ Season Long Driver Rating Average) section, we see that our Studs starting 1 – 5 usually score the highest here, with a 66.1 FP average. This week we get a plethora of guys there, but I want to focus on two here: Harvick and Hamlin. Kevin Harvick dominates Phoenix and has a shot to lead some laps off the start here. I see a Top 5 out of him and a very solid score. And Hamlin will almost certainly come in at very low ownership at his starting spot, but if he can hang around that spot all day, which he is more than capable of doing, he has a shot at being optimal at his price.

Taking a look at our “Mid-Tier” (drivers who have a 50-90 Season Long Driver Rating Average), we see that Mid-Tier guys starting 11 – 15 score the best with an average of 56.2 FP. Here we get guys like Bell, Kes, and Jones to help us out. I think Jones is a solid FD GPP option here and so is Kes given his history here, but I’m not much on Bell at all.

Finally, let’s take a look at our “Scrubs” (Sub-50 Season Long Driver Rating Average) section. We notice that drivers starting 31 – 35 tend to score best, but they only score an average of 36.0 FP. They also only complete an average of 275 laps, which tells me we may want to look elsewhere this week.

SpeedRanks Tab

The SpeedRanks tab shows us how drivers fared on different tracks last season. We will mainly use this section to look for our better Mid-Tier and Studs options. If we scroll down to Phoenix under the “Track” section, we see that Ryan Blaney had the best fast lap rank as well as the third-best average speed rank. We also notice just how good Kyle Busch was here staying first or second in every category. Another driver that really stands out to me in this section is Clint Bowyer. He ranked as the 5th best average speed rank with incredible long run speeds. We already know he was a strong driver from our Track Types tab and this sweetens the deal for us.

DraftKings Tab

The first section I want to look at in the DraftKings tab is the “Practice 2” section. I weigh Practice 2 speeds slightly more as these speeds are the closest we will see them be to the actual race. If we take note of the Green Flag % we found early (second longest green flag run on average), we will want to target the long run practice speeds here. Most drivers will choose to run a 10-Lap consecutive time, so that is the section we will key in on. Here we see that Harvick posted the best 10-Lap Average, with Keselowski posting the second-best and Logano rounding out our Top 3 drivers.

We also want to take note of the practice speeds as a whole. We tend to notice consistencies with practice speeds, and those are the drivers that are typically very comfortable with their cars and will look to have strong days. The one driver that really stands out here is Chase Elliott. Chase was strong in Practice 1 and continued to be very strong in Practice 2. We also notice William Byron staying consistent in both practices. Finally, we notice how steep a jump Aric Almirola and Christopher Bell made between Practice 1 and Practice 2 speeds. This tells me these teams modified the cars to the point the drivers were very comfortable with and were able to turn in great times and speeds as a result.

The next section I want to look at is the “Phoenix Stats” section. This section tells us how drivers have done at Phoenix in their careers. Looking at this section, we notice just how dominant Kevin Harvick has been with an average driver rating of 124.3, an average running position of 5.1 and an average of 88.2 lead laps. We also notice Kyle Busch with a very strong history as well: 110.7 average driver rating, an average running position of 7.9 and an average finishing position of 7.6. One driver I’m really taking note of for GPP’s is Joey Logano. Logano was extremely fast in Practice 2 long run speeds and really stands out in the Phoenix Stats section as well.

Finally, when we have the drivers we are really focusing on, for example, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Austin Dillon, we want to check out the “Projections” section to make sure the projections are popping these guys as well. We see that Busch is projecting very highly, highest on the slate. Harvick rates highly as well, but not nearly as high as Busch. This is due to the starting position for Busch this week, as well as track history. Also, Austin Dillon rates higher than the drivers around him and will look to have a strong race this weekend. These may be the guys we start our cash builds with.

FanDuel Tab

The first section I want to look at in the FanDuel tab is the “Practice 2” section. I weigh Practice 2 speeds slightly more as these speeds are the closest we will see them be to the actual race. If we take note of the Green Flag % we found early (second longest green flag run on average), we will want to target the long run practice speeds here. Most drivers will choose to run a 10-Lap consecutive time, so that is the section we will key in on. Here we see that Harvick posted the best 10-Lap Average, with Keselowski posting the second-best and Logano rounding out our Top 3 drivers.

We also want to take note of the practice speeds as a whole. We tend to notice consistencies with practice speeds, and those are the drivers that are typically very comfortable with their cars and will look to have strong days. The one driver that really stands out here is Chase Elliott. Chase was strong in Practice 1 and continued to be very strong in Practice 2. We also notice William Byron staying consistent in both practices. Finally, we notice how steep a jump Aric Almirola and Christopher Bell made between Practice 1 and Practice 2 speeds. This tells me these teams modified the cars to the point the drivers were very comfortable with and were able to turn in great times and speeds as a result.

The next section I want to look at is the “Phoenix Stats” section. This section tells us how drivers have done at Phoenix in their careers. Looking at this section, we notice just how dominant Kevin Harvick has been with an average driver rating of 124.3, an average running position of 5.1 and an average of 88.2 lead laps. We also notice Kyle Busch with a very strong history as well: 110.7 average driver rating, an average running position of 7.9 and an average finishing position of 7.6. One driver I’m really taking note of for GPP’s is Joey Logano. Logano was extremely fast in Practice 2 long run speeds and really stands out in the Phoenix Stats section as well.

Finally, when we have the drivers we are really focusing on, for example, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Austin Dillon, we want to check out the “Projections” section to make sure the projections are popping these guys as well. We see that Busch is projecting very highly, highest on the slate. Harvick rates highly as well, but not nearly as high as Busch. This is due to the starting position for Busch this week, as well as track history. Also, Austin Dillon rates higher than the drivers around him and will look to have a strong race this weekend. These may be the guys we start our cash builds with.

NillyJay’s NASCAR Tools

The final thing we want to do when getting ready to set up the DS is check out NillyJay’s NASCAR tools. Nilly has made a Lineup Projector that you can use to project how a cash lineup you’ve built would score. For example, let’s just plug in some guys real quick. In the lineup projector, you have to make your own projections that you can insert into the boxes and customize yourself based on how you believe the race will go! The “Target for 25%” is the number we want our lineup to hit for cash lineups, and the “Target for 33%” is the number we want our lineups to hit for GPP’s.

Nilly also has an MKF (Monkey Knife Fight) tool for our prop betting friends! This tool truly is unique in the industry and you can use it to attack props that MKF offers on their website, www.monkeyknifefight.com. For example, MKF has a prop at the moment on their website that if you hit 2/2 on, you get 2.5X your buy-in on! The prop is simple, Harvick Over/Under 68.5 MKF points and Kyle Busch Over/Under 64.5 MKF points. If we pull the projections from the RS into this prop calculator, we see that Harvick and Busch are both projected to hit slightly under their prop totals. Therefore, we would go under on both! That simple!

Finally, Nilly has a Race Calculator that details everything we need to know about this track for both sites. We see for DraftKings purposes, Nilly recommends 1 – 2 dominators on both sites for this race. Therefore, in the DS, I would set a rule under the “Dominator Stacking Options” of  “At most 2 players”. We also see this race has a medium cash game risk, which isn’t horrible in NASCAR, but Phoenix does have some unpredictability involved with it.

 

DraftKings

Top Studs

  1. Kyle Busch $12,000
  2. Brad Keselowski $10,400
  3. Chase Elliott $9,600

 

Top Mid-Tier Plays

  1. Austin Dillon $7,500
  2. Tyler Reddick $6,900
  3. Jimmie Johnson $9,000

 

Top GPP Pivots

  1. William Byron $8,300
  2. Ryan Blaney $9,900
  3. Kyle Larson $8,800

 

FanDuel

Top Studs

  1. Kevin Harvick $12,500
  2. Kyle Busch $14,000
  3. Joey Logano $11,200

 

Top Mid-Tier Plays

  1. William Byron $9,500
  2. Austin Dillon $7,600
  3. Erik Jones $9,200

 

Top GPP Pivots

  1. Alex Bowman $10,500
  2. Aric Almirola $8,100
  3. Kurt Busch $8,800

 

Be sure to check out Larkin, Taco, and Nilly on the coaches’ sheets for full slate driver-by-driver breakdowns as well!!

 

That’ll do it for this week’s The Sway Bar! If you enjoyed, please give me a follow on Twitter @AUFan30, or let me know in Slack! If you know of anyone interested in joining the DFS Army, be sure to tell them to use my link https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/99/ and use code “AU30” at checkout for 20% their monthly VIP/BTB membership! Can’t wait to see those helmets crushing tournaments this week!