Hello DFS Army members and welcome to a new idea I’ve had here for the 2020 NBA season. With the way data and info is available to all DFS players, all of the “great plays” are pretty easy to identify, thus leading to them all being highly owned in your big field tournaments and double-ups. This article is here to try and help you identify some of those plays that are flying under the radar, whether it be from breaking news, a certain player being out on an opposing team that improves a matchup, or simply someone who has just gone overlooked. I’ll utilize the Research Station and Domination Station and Ownership Projection tools we have here at DFS Army, as I truly believe they are the best in the business.
Tonight we have a really juicy 9 game slate, so ownership is going to be a little more spread out than it would be on a smaller 6-8 game slate, or the 4 game slate like we saw last night. Here’s my process for finding some of these GPP pivots:
The first thing I will look at is the Research Station and our all in one comprehensive And1 rating. I play mostly on FanDuel so we’ll use their salaries for consistency in the article. First look gives us this:
This gives us a preliminary idea of who some of our top plays are going to be here tonight, they’re also likely going to be popular. From there I go and sort at each position by projected ceiling and we get:
I use ceiling for a reason, considering this article is focused on GPPs, you want to have guys with the highest ceilings (a.k.a. can score the most fantasy points), but we also have to keep in mind, that when a guy has a high ceiling, his floor is usually lower and more volatile. But in GPPs, you have to risk it if you want the biscuit. Looking at ceiling is also crucial because it can help us identify a pivot right there based on our ownership projections. Now, from here, I’ll look at who is popping for value, since we’ll need some value if we want to fit in some of these higher priced studs/pivots into our lineups:
Value can also help you identify the chalk, as those that are dirt cheap with high value ratings will likely be chalky, especially in cash games. Now comes the crucial step, ownership and identifying the chalk. With everyone having access to this data or an optimizer, certain players will be more popular than others. We have to be able to identify those plays that can still smash for us at a much lower ownership if we want to take down GPPs. It’s quite easy, go to the Domination Station and you can sort by highest projected ownership. Here are the top 3 highest owned per position today:
This gives us our chalk at each position for the day. Now that we have identified it, we can find ways to pivot off of it.
My GPP Pivots:
Shabazz Napier or Goran Dragic over Markelle Fultz- Shabazz has the best matchup of any point guard on the slate, and it’s really not even close. ATL ranks dead last against opposing PGs over the past 2 weeks, and Shabazz’s minutes and play are both trending upward as he gets more comfortable in this Washington offense. Ish Smith is also likely not going to play here again tonight, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Bazz plays 30+ minutes in this game at the fastest pace on the night. Don’t get me wrong, Fultz has a great matchup here, but I’ll take the guy in the higher scoring game, and projected at under 8% ownership, compared to the guy in the slower game with a 30% ownership projection. Bonus play at PG: For Dragic, he has one of the top And1 ratings in the RS, and is coming in at a projected 3% ownership as well against a Pelicans defense that is one of the worst in the NBA at defending the PG position.
Jimmy Butler over Devin Booker- Jimmy B is one of my favorite GPP pivots here tonight, as Booker will likely be chalky at his price, and Butler will go overlooked once again. Starting with the matchup, the Pelicans are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, and Butler has had success against them this year:
The best part about Butler, is he doesn’t need to score to get you FPs, so he also has a safer floor than Booker. Butler can get you 30 FPs just in peripheral stats, and if he gets a few breakaway steals here tonight he’s absolutely going to crush value at his price tag. This is a pace-up spot for the Heat as well, and with how well the Pels have been playing it should be a close game. I’ll take the guy with the same ceiling and safer floor with a nice 5% ownership discount as well.
De’Andre Hunter over Juancho Hernangomez- Hunter is projected at a measly 5.6%, while Juancho is projected at just under 24%. Hernangomez’s ceiling is only a few points higher than Hunter’s and Hunter will also get a boost if Cam Reddish is out once again tonight. Hunter also draws a much better matchup, as the Wizards rank 26th against SFs over the past 2 weeks. No one will be on Hunter and I love him over Huancho tonight.
Bam Adebayo over Domantas Sabonis- Bam and Sabonis have a similar ceiling, and I actually love playing guys from the Heat when they get into a pace up matchup like the one we have here today, as people underestimate them. Bam, much like Jimmy, has had some success against the Pelicans this year as well:
The Pelicans have also been getting gashed by opposing big men over the past 2 weeks, as they rank 25th aDvP against opposing PF/C combos over that time. He also is only being projected at a 12% ownership rate, while Sabonis draws a nice matchup as well, without LaVine I don’t see the Bulls staying with this Pacers team, so it could be an early exit for him. He’s also projected at 26% ownership so I’ll take the discount and similar ceiling of Bam in the closer game.
Rudy Gobert over Nikola Vucevic – I actually recommended this same pivot in my last article, and it panned out well there as Rudy outscored Vuc at a very low ownership rate while Vuc’s ownership was through the roof. The Celtics simply don’t have anyone that can matchup with Vucevic down low, as the Celtics rank 23rd aDvP against Centers over the past two weeks. You also get a 32% ownership discount, as Gobert is coming in around an 8% projected ownership, while Vuc is going to be close to 40% owned. He’s probably my second favorite pivot on the night behind Jimmy B.
Everyone, NBA is very volatile with late scratches so please pay extra attention to Breaking News today! Stay on your toes!
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
