Welcome to the Core 4! My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the article throughout the day as news breaks. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Purpose of the Core 4: These four players are guys that I want to lock into my cash game lineups and if doing multi-entry, using the Domination Station lock them in or set high exposure percentages to them. These are players that I see as underpriced, in great matchups, in play because of injuries, increased usage, etc. I also need to mention that these plays are normally geared toward Draftkings pricing and scoring, I’m not a huge fan of NBA for Fanduel, so if you see my list has three small forwards or two centers, etc. it’s because of the multi-position eligibility on Draftkings. With that said, let’s jump right into it!
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Process:
I’ve had a lot of people ask me how I get to my core guys or what do I use to get to these guys to set a foundation for my lineups, so I’m introducing a new section to this article that I’m hoping can lead this to be a little more process-based and help all of you either find a core that you like or simply see how I got to these guys so you know I’m not just pulling them out of my ass! With that said, let’s get this puppy started!
Recognizing Value:
When it comes to NBA DFS value is truly king and being able to pinpoint underpriced guys will go along way in your success in this sport. With that said, the first thing I do is head right to the Research Station (or Domination Station if you’re closer to lock) and go ahead and sort by “Value” or “PP/$”. This will then sort the player pool from the highest projected value to lowest. Many of you will see that I post my Core 4 results on Twitter and it will say something along the lines of Joel Embiid – 6.2x, that “x” number is the particular value that the player was able to reach at their price tag. That’s why questions in slack like “James Harden or Donte DiVincenzo” are incredibly difficult to answer because Harden is the obvious better play from a raw points perspective, but DiVincenzo may have a higher value. You can also scroll to the right in the Research Station and find the two columns that will tell you how the player has performed relative to a 6x (cash) or 7x (GPP) marker this season, as seen below.
And1 Rating:
Once we have determined the top value options on the slate we can begin to dig a little deeper into what makes them a good play. The And1 rating is an all-encompassing metric that will lead you to the best plays on each slate each day. As you’re looking through your “sorted” Research Station or Domination Station, you will want to look for a green shade in the And1 column, green is good, red is bad!
Opportunity:
In the NBA, opportunity is everything which is very different from other sports. In baseball, a guy could get a spot start and get five at-bats and do absolutely nothing with them. That is typically not the case in NBA, if a guy is injured or out for some reason, usually a guy at a cheaper price tag will jump right into a decent role and be able to produce from a fantasy perspective no matter the actual NBA talent of the player. This is where I keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for injuries or updates on potential value guys that we could look at starting.
Matchup/Pace:
Lastly, you don’t want a guy in a bad matchup, that much seems pretty obvious. That said, there are scenarios where I’m able to live with a poor DvP%. I’m a big believer in pace being a better representation of DFS production that simply defense vs. position especially in today’s NBA where some teams are running up and down the court forcing the other team to play up to there speed. This is where I got to the Research Station and scroll over and find the “Vegas” and “Pace” section. Simply put, the more points scored in a game, the better for DFS production. You want to target guys with a + pace boost, also noted by having a green shade in this column.
Reverse Engineering:
Here is how my core from yesterday performed –
- Jonas Valanciunas – 33 DraftKings points; 4.2x
- Coby White – 37.25 DraftKings points; 6x
- Luka Doncic – 73.25 DraftKings points; 6.7x
- Shabazz Napier – 20 DraftKings points; 4x
Overall it wasn’t the greatest slate for the core but we were able to survive, I cashed most of my head to heads and double-ups and that’s what you should be aiming to do every single night. When your core has a below-average night you want to mitigate your losses with those 50/50 contests. That said, I did cash a few GPP as well thanks to White and Doncic, and really neither Valanciunas or Napier killed me they just had below-average night’s. We’ve got a four gamer on deck tonight so why don’t we see if we can smash all four guys!
Today’s Core 4:
Paul George (SF) – $7,400
We will kick off the Core 4 with the Clippers traveling to Houston to take on the Rockets in a game that has a huge 236.5 implied total. The first thing that jumps out to me about George is that this is a pace up spot at +1.8 and a game that should stay close with a spread at 1.0. The big thing with George right now is the minutes, he won’t be run out there heavy minutes in games that aren’t close, this game should be on of the more competitive ones on the slate. He has at least 25 minutes in four straight games and I would expect him to be up near 30+ here. Not only this but the Rockets have struggled with opposing SF’s all season long, George scored 59.3 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season. He’s just too cheap here and on a four-game slate, he’s going to make a ton of my lineups.
Tobias Harris (SF/PF) – $7,900
The second piece of the core traveling to Sacramento to take on the Kings. This game has an implied total of 221.5 and the Sixers are actually underdogs due to all their injuries. Speaking of injuries, this team will have Josh Richardson, Joel Embiid, and Ben Simmons out tonight, and with these guys off the court, Harris has a 26.3% usage rate and 1.18 fantasy points per minute. Harris is probably priced where he should be but I’m really chasing the upside from him. He should play nearly 40 minutes in this spot and has flashed a major ceiling this season. With these guys all out for the Sixers, the offense will run through him and is just a guy I’m going to get to and not get cute on a four-game slate. He comes with a reasonable floor and a massive ceiling.
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Buddy Hield (SG/SF) – $5,900
The beauty of a four-game slate is we can justify guys like Buddy Hield! The thing with him is Luke Walton can’t figure out how to manage his rotation, he’s really a very bad coach, but that is baked into the price with Hield. For some reason, he’s not getting his usual minutes over the last handful of games. The thing with Hield is he has break the slate upside when he is in there. He has a 27.5% usage rate and 1.17 fantasy points per minute over the past two weeks, so when he’s in there, he’s going to see production. On a four-game slate, you can take chances on these guys and Hield at under $6k is a guy I want. He scored 35.5 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season in 37 minutes… if he can get 37 minutes here I think we’ll be laughing our way to the bank. The floor for him is in the mid-to-low 20s but I think his upside outweighs that risk at a very cheap price tag.
Al Horford (PF/C) – $7,000
I’m going to go right back to the Sixers here, at the moment it’s a slate where guys are priced about where they should be and I’ve already hit on the few that I see a discrepancy on. Horford is much like Harris, where he is seeing a big opportunity with Richardson, Embiid, and Simmons off the court. He’s played at least 30 minutes in four of his last five games and is so close to the double-double bonus in almost all of them, we may strike oil with him tonight if he can get to the bonus. He has an 18.1% usage rate over the past two weeks with these guys off the court, but the real telling stat is his 1.31 fantasy points per minute. The Kings frontcourt is not one that scares be and similar to Harris, his floor his pretty solid with a great ceiling. I will round out the core with Mr. Horford tonight!
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches. If you don’t know about them, our two newest pages contain Breaking News and our exclusive Coaches’ Picks……both invaluable for late-breaking news and pivots in NBA.