Daily Fantasy Sports
Sharp App
Season Long Fantasy
Free Month
Wall of Champions
Discord

DFS Army – NHL Breakaway Advice and Strategy for FanDuel and DraftKings – March 3rd

Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!  You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process.  I am @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter.   But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players.  If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team!  Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.

NHL DFS At A Glance

These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.

ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
vMatchup: Averaging up GA/60, xGA/60 and SA/60 and giving it a value. Target teams in the RED as they are giving up the most goals and shots.
vOffense: Averaging up GF/60, xGF/60 and SF/60 and giving it a value. Look at teams with the higher ratings as they are scoring more goals and have players who are shooting the puck.

If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums.  Just tag me (@LowOwnedWR) and let’s get on the same page.

Quick Read:  NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First

(All stats below from last ten games)

 

 

Montreal Canadiens @ New York Islanders

Montreal Canadiens: The Domi line has been great but only being implied 2.6 we are going to take our exposure elsewhere on a 10 game slate.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none

New York Islanders: Dead last in vOffense rating on the slate, that means we do not play them if you did not know.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none

St. Louis Blues @ New York Rangers

St. Louis Blues: New York’s goaltending has been stellar minus the game against Philly and the whole team was awful, it is hard for me to want to look here when I know Georgiev is going to be a brick wall.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none

New York Rangers: The Blues are the worst possible matchup on the slate based on vMatchup, however Zibanejad is only $7300 tonight on DK, my exposure to the Rangers tonight would be limited to him.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Mika Zibanejad
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Mika Zibanejad

Ottawa Senators @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Ottawa Senators: That good game against Vancouver seems like 3 years ago at this point, not falling for their value trap tonight, so naturally expect Thomas Chabot to block 6 shots tonight. He is a good play tonight but like I said, not falling for the value trap.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Thomas Chabot
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none

Pittsburgh Penguins: I expect the public to lock and load Malkin tomorrow and is hard not to want to do the same, the sharp play is Kris Letang, this is setting up to be a slate where most players will go 3 C and that will not leave enough salary for Letang with the Pacioretty chalk. Sub 7% 20+ point game in bound.

5 star plays – Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin
4 star plays – Justin Schultz, Bryan Rust (FD)
Cash viable – Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust (FD)
GPP Sleeper – Kris Letang

Boston Bruins @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Boston Bruins: Not spending up for BOS1 on the road against Tampa.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none

Tampa Bay Lightning: If Sergachev remains on PP1 I really like him tonight but that is it for the Tampa exposure tonight.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Mikhail Sergachev
Cash viable – Mikhail Sergachev
GPP Sleeper – Tyler Johnson

Nashville Predators @ Minnesota Wild

Nashville Predators: One of my new favorite parts of these articles is coming up with different ways to say “Do Not Play Nashville.” Have your ever crapped your pants and said to yourself “Oh, I want to do that again”? No? Then do not roster the Predators tonight.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none

Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise is tremendous value on DK tonight and Fiala is still good value on FD at $5900, and of course do not forget 2 month long underpriced Matt Dumba (FD) at $3800

5 star plays – Matt Dumba (FD)
4 star plays – Zach Parise (DK), Kevin Fiala (FD)
Cash viable – Zach Parise (DK), Kevin Fiala (FD), Matt Dumba (FD)
GPP Sleeper – Zach Parise

 

Buffalo Sabres @ Winnipeg Jets

Buffalo Sabres: Jack Eichel is only $7100 tonight on DK, Winnipeg is 5th worst in xGA at 2.64, lock and load him tonight, boys.

5 star plays – Jack Eichel (DK)
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Jack Eichel (FD)

Winnipeg Jets: Kyle Connor has a goal in each of his last 3 games and intrigues me tonight but nothing besides him.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Kyle Connor
Cash viable – Kyle Connor
GPP Sleeper – Kyle Connor

Anaheim Ducks @ Chicago Blackhawks

Anaheim Ducks: There is a min price dman named Christian Djoos who is on PP1 and played 21 minutes last game, if Lindholm misses, expect that to stay the same and lock him in.

5 star plays – Christian Djoos
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none

Chicago Blackhawks: Anaheim is absolutely awful and Patrick Kane is another stud in a good spot who will go low owned tonight.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Patrick Kane
Cash viable – Patrick Kane
GPP Sleeper – Patrick Kane

Edmonton Oilers @ Dallas Stars

Edmonton Oilers: Leon Draisaitl is a man on a mission right now, and the high of scoring 4 goals probably eliminates the drag of playing a B2B, my Edmonton exposure is limited to him tonight, expect him to be sub 5%.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Leon Draisaitl
Cash viable – Leon Draisaitl
GPP Sleeper – Leon Draisaitl

Dallas Stars: Radulov is under 4k tonight on DK but that is all I am looking at.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Alexander Radulov
Cash viable – Alexander Radulov
GPP Sleeper – none

New Jersey Devils @ Vegas Golden Knights

New Jersey Devils: No.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none

Vegas Golden Knights: William Karlsson and Max Pacioretty are as good as plays as it gets tonight.

5 star plays – Max Pacioretty, William Karlsson
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Max Pacioretty, William Karlsson
GPP Sleeper – none

Toronto Maple Leafs @ San Jose Sharks

Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews takes that Leon game last night personally and responds with at least 2 goals tonight. Holl is a little priced up now so I like Travis Dermott for the value D man here.

5 star plays – Auston Matthews
4 star plays – Travis Dermott, Kasperi Kapanen
Cash viable – Auston Matthews, Travis Dermott, Kasperi Kapanen
GPP Sleeper – Tyson Barrie

San Jose Sharks: Go look at Brent Burns game logs and you will see he is restorable every night until he is 8k.

5 star plays – Brent Burns (DK)
4 star plays – Brent Burns (FD), Evander Kane
Cash viable – Brent Burns, Evander Kane
GPP Sleeper – none

 

Goalies:

Alexander Georgiev (DK): The Rangers give up a lot of shots, he saves a lot of shots, you get fantasy point. The Blues are a tough matchup but the Rangers have been playing good hockey for well over a month.

Semyon Varlamov (FD): Montreal takes a lot of shots but a lot of them are very low danger shots, Varlamov could rack up the saves tonight without breaking a sweat.