Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I am @mdellagnese14 and you can find me out on Twitter. But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.
ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
vMatchup: Averaging up GA/60, xGA/60 and SA/60 and giving it a value. Target teams in the RED as they are giving up the most goals and shots.
vOffense: Averaging up GF/60, xGF/60 and SF/60 and giving it a value. Look at teams with the higher ratings as they are scoring more goals and have players who are shooting the puck.
If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Just tag me (@mdellagnese14) and let’s get on the same page.
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
(All stats below from last ten games)
Boston Bruins @ Philadelphia Flyers
Bruins: I feel alot of people are going to be on the Bruins, just because of their name, but I’m not too high on them tonight as Carter Hart has been playing amazing of late. That being said, there are still some guys who are playable in GPPs for me tonight.
5 star plays – David Pastrnak
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP – BOS1
Flyers: PHI has scored the most goals/game in L10 games in the league at 4.2 goals and have won 9 of their last 10 games. Their offense is playing great, but still this is a tough matchup against a good defensive team in Boston. It’s hard to use them in cash games, but there are still some I like in GPPs.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier
Cash viable –
GPP – Matt Niskanen
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Lightning: TB scores a ton and TOR is allowing some goals of late with Andersen struggling a bit. I love TB and their upside here, but they have not been shooting of the page for me so far. Still they are scoring 3.3 goals/game in L10.
5 star plays – Nikita Kucherov
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Nikita Kucherov
GPP – Alex Killorn, Blake Coleman, Mikhail Sergachev
Maple Leafs: The Lightning have been allowing goals of late, but I do think Vasil bounces back here and settles in. That being said, there are still a bunch of viable pieces on TOR and they just put up 5 in the last game against them
5 star plays – Auston Matthews
4 star plays – John Tavares, William Nylander
Cash viable – Auston Matthews, William Nylander (DK)
GPP Sleeper – Zach Hyman
Pittsburgh Penguins @ New Jersey Devils
Penguins: While a ton of people are going to be on the Pens tonight, I’m going to be just the opposite. Over the last 10 games, they are scoring just 2.3 goals/game and have really struggled to win games (2-8 in L10). Blackwood has played very well of late and that makes me lean Devils at home in a low scoring game. I’m sticking them to just deep-gpp fliers tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP – Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, Patric Hornqvist, Jason Zucker
Devils: Low key love the Devils here and absolutely LOVE Blackwood in GPPs. I can’t trust them in cash games, but the upside is there. PIT has struggled all over lately and the Devils have some sneaky plays.
5 star plays –
4 star plays – Nikita Gusev
Cash viable –
GPP Sleeper – Jesper Bratt, Pavel Zacha, Miles Wood
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Nashville Predators @ Montreal Canadians
Predators: Nashville isnt scoring much and their offenses just doesnt excite me. You can use Josi or Ellis as one-off defense, but I’m not touching anyone else.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP/One-Off – Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis
Canadians: This team is hard to peg too. They are scoring just under 3 goals/game but their offense hasn’t really looked that great. That being said, i dont mind using some of their top line guys, especially Gallagher who shoots the puck a ton. On a bigger slate, I’m mostly avoiding this game tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Brendan Gallagher
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Nick Suzuki
Carolina Hurricanes @ Detroit Red Wings
Hurricanes: The Canes are middle of the pack right now, but come in to a great matchup against the Red Wings. They have upside in this matchup and will garner ownership because of the matchup they are in. Carolina has been playing decent defense and has been really good on the PK. Great matchup and will be chalky.
5 star plays – Sebastian Aho
4 star plays – Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen
Cash viable – Jaccob Slavin (good value D)
GPP – Justin Williams, Joel Edmundson
Red Wings: I mean, its Detroit, nothing really other than GPP flier. That being said though, their top line has been preforming of late and i dont mind taking some stabs at them in GPPs.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Dylan Larkin
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Tyler Bertuzzi, Anthony Mantha
New York Rangers @ Dallas Stars
Rangers: Scoring a ton lately (3.9 goals.game), but Dallas does play some pretty good defense. This game is tough to guage and on a big slate im just going to play some one-offs from the Rangers.
5 star plays – Mika Zibanejad
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP – Pavel Buchnevich, Tony DeAngelo
Stars: Igor had an awful game last time out but i think he turns it around here and Dallas offense isn’t good at all. no real interest in them tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Ottawa Senators @ Anaheim Ducks
Senators: OTT stinks, but man is this matchup good. Stolarz is starting for ANH likely tonight and OTT does have some guys who can score. I don’t mind taking a stab in GPPs.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Brady Tkachuk, Connor Brown, Chris Tierney, Anthony Duclair
Ducks: The Ducks are going to be one of my hammer sleeper teams tonight. Check out my DFS Army Cheat sheet for the reasons on why I like these players tonight!
5 star plays –
4 star plays –
Cash viable – Rickard Rakell, Matt Irwin
GPP Sleeper – Adam Henrique, Jakob Silfverberg.
New York Islanders @ Vancouver Canucks
Islanders: not scoring, but Demko has been a little streaky of late. Still, there isn’t much to love from the Islanders.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable –Ryan Pulock
GPP Sleeper – none
Canucks: Vancouver is playing great of late and scoring a ton. Their top line is producing and their PP has been amazing of late. Even though their W-L isn’t the best of late, they are still shooting a ton and scoring 3.3 goals/game of late.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – J.T. Miller
Cash viable – Alexander Edler
GPP – Tanner Pearson, Tyler Toffoli
Goalies:
Juuse Saros (ALL): Our top proj goalie from our RS and has a good matchup. MTL is streaky but they dont worry me much. Saros has been amazing lately with the 3rd highest FD/DK points over his last 10 games and a .941 sv%.
Carter Hart (GPP): Love me some Hart here tonight. He’s been amazing of late and gets a matchup with the Bruins that will naturally lower his ownership. He has allowed 3 or fewer goals in each of his last 7 starts and has been on such a good run of late. Love using him in GPPs tonight.
MacKenzie Blackwood (GPP): Another goalie that no one is going to be on tonight. The Penguins are a good offense, but Blackwood has been absolutely great over his last few starts. Even allowing 4 goals last game he still got the win and ended with a decent FP game. Before that game, he had not allowed more than 3 goals in 8 straight. Love a bounce back here at low ownership.
Frederik Andersen (GPP): Got the win last time against TB and I do prefer Toronto tonight. I think Andersen keeps his roll of good starts going and he will see a ton of SOGA tonight.
Igor Shesterkin (ALL): Think he bounces back tonight and has a good matchup against Dallas who doesn’t score that much. His last start will lower his ownership tonight too.